Download China Outlook and Recent Developments

The views expressed in this presentation are
those of the author and do not necessarily
represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.
Steven Barnett
Division Chief
IMF Asia and Pacific Department
January 2014
Convergence Process of Per Capita GDP: China, Japan, Korea
(PPP, relative to United States)
80
Japan (1955–1982)
GDP per capita relative to the
United States
70
Korea (1961–1997)
China (1979–2012)
60
Baseline scenario (2013-30)
Rebalancing scenario
50
80
70
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Number of years of expansion
Source: IMF staff estimates.
China: Contribution to Growth by Input
(In percentage points)
Human capital
11
Physical capital accumulation
TFP
9
7
9
GDP growth
7
5.8
6.2
5
11
2.7
3
5
3
4.0
1
2.4
3.3
-1
1
-1
2001-2008
Source: IMF staff estimates.
2009-2012
2013-30
China: Social Financing Stock
(In percent of GDP*)
2013Q3
200
200
10
Non-fin enterprise equity and other
200
Entrustred loans, trust loans, bank acceptance, net
corporate bond financing
Bank loans
180
180
Total
49
160
2008Q4
140
140
129
5
120
141
15
109
100
2003
2005
2007
2009
* In percent of 4Q rolling sum of quarterly GDP. Projected 2013Q3 GDP.
Sources: CEIC; and IMF staff calculations.
160
120
100
2011
2013Q3
2013
Augmented Deficits and Net Borrowings
16
(In percent of GDP)
16
Augmented
fiscal deficit
12
8
12
Net proceeds
from land sales
Augmented
net borrowing
8
4
4
General government deficit
0
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Sources: CEIC, Chinabond, EUROSTAT, China Citic Press, China Trustee Association, NAO, and the Ministry of
Finance, Zhang and Barnett (2013).
People’s Republic of China: 2013
Article IV Report
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40786.0
China’s Growth: Why Less is More
(Blog : Steven Barnett; 29-Oct-13)
http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2013/10/29/chinasgrowth-why-less-is-more/
IMF and PBC Joint Conference on Capital
Flows Management: Lessons from
International Experience
www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2013/capitalflows/
pdf/032013.pdf