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Global Economy, Recovery, and
Linkage to Agriculture
Kevin Bernhardt
UW-Extension and Center for Dairy Profitability
October 2009
2
World
Income
World Situation to Farm Income
How much
Flow of
Agricultural
Imports & Exports
Energy
Demand
and Prices
World
Currency
Exchange
Rates
Who gets
the business
Biofuel
Demand
and Prices
Demand for U.S.
Products
(Exports)
Demand for
biofuel raw
material (corn)
Agricultural
Commodity
Prices &
Production
Farm
Income
3
A Little Theory
D0
P1
P0
D1
S
All else staying the
same, as income
increase demand and
price increase
Q
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
4
World Real GDP Growth Rate
versus World Feedgrain Exports
As World Growth Rates Go – So Goes World Exports
140,000.0
130,000.0
120,000.0
110,000.0
100,000.0
90,000.0
80,000.0
70,000.0
60,000.0
50,000.0
40,000.0
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
World
Feedgrain
Exports
Real GDP
Growth Rate
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
0.00
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
World Real GDP Growth Rate
versus U.S. Exports
5
As World Growth Rates Go – So Goes U.S. Corn Exports
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Canada’s Real GDP Growth Rate
versus U.S. Exports
6
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
China’s Real GDP Growth Rate
versus U.S. Exports
7
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Mexico’s Real GDP Growth Rate
versus U.S. Exports
8
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Japan’s Real GDP Growth Rate
versus U.S. Exports
9
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
10
Remember
D0
P1
P0
D1
S
As demand for U.S.
exports increase then
all else being the same
price increases
Q
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
11
U.S. Corn Exports versus
Nominal U.S. Corn Prices
As U.S. Corn Exports Go – So Goes U.S. Nominal Prices
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
U.S. Corn Exports versus Real
U.S. Corn Prices
12
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
13
What’s the Point?
•
•
As the world’s income (GDP) rises U.S.
Exports increase
And as U.S. exports increase so does U.S.
prices
A Global Impact that affects U.S.
Ag Prices is real GDP Growth
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
14
A Little Theory
Demand also can
increase if your
currency becomes
comparatively
stronger.
That is, your currency
buys more of your
trading partners stuff!
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Real U.S. Exchange Rate Index
versus U.S. Corn Exports
15
As Value of U.S. Dollar Falls – U.S. Corn Exports Increase
The exchange rate going down means the value of
the dollar compared to other currencies is less.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
And as we have already seen increasing
U.S. Corn Exports Increase Prices
16
As U.S. Corn Exports Go – So Goes U.S. Nominal Prices
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
17
What’s the Point?
•
If the value of the U.S. dollar is
comparatively low then that gives our
trading partners more money to buy U.S.
stuff
–
–
Leads to increased demand for U.S. exports
As U.S. exports increase so does U.S. prices
A Global Impact that affects U.S.
Ag Prices is the exchange value
of the U.S. Dollar
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
18
Two Global Impacts Ag Prices
Income, GDP, Growth of our
trading partners
Exchange value of the U.S. Dollar
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
19
The Global
Recession
Before and After
Real Gross Domestic Product
Growth Rate (through 2007)
12
10
8
6
World
4
Advanced
Economies
2
0
Emerging
Economies
-2
-4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: IMF:
Developing
Asia
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Real Gross Domestic Product
Growth Rate (through 2009)
12
10
8
6
World
4
Advanced
Economies
2
0
Emerging
Economies
-2
-4
2000
Source: IMF:
2002
2004
2006
2008
Developing
Asia
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Monthly Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $
Jan 1980-Dec 2007 (2005 base) The lower the
number the more attractive U.S. products.
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
80 -82 -84 -86 -88 -90 -92 -94 -96 -98 -00 -02 -04 -06
n an an an an an an an an an an an an an
a
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
Canada
EU Zone
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $
(2005 base) The lower the number the more
attractive U.S. products.
Canada
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jan-04
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-98
Jan-96
Jan-94
Jan-92
Jan-90
Jan-88
Jan-86
Jan-84
Jan-82
Jan-80
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
EU Zone
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $
(1980-2009, 2005 base) The lower the number the
more attractive U.S. products.
Ja
n8
Ja 0
n82
Ja
n84
Ja
n86
Ja
n8
Ja 8
n9
Ja 0
n92
Ja
n94
Ja
n96
Ja
n9
Ja 8
n0
Ja 0
n0
Ja 2
n04
Ja
n06
Ja
n08
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Japan
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $
(1980-2009, 2005 base) The lower the number the
more attractive U.S. products.
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jan-04
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-98
Jan-96
Jan-94
Jan-92
Jan-90
Jan-88
Jan-86
Jan-84
Jan-82
Jan-80
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Japan
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
26
Interest Rates, 1992-2009
Copyright © 2009 Mortgage-X.com
Source: www.mortgage-x.com
Reprinted with permission
If i-rates come back to a more
“normal” state then that slows
the engine a bit.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
27
Unemployment, 1990-2009
If unemployment returns to a more “normal”
range then that increases income & consumption.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
28
Consumer Confidence
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Dow Jones Industrial Averages,
2000-2009
29
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
World Feedgrains and Wheat Ending
Stocks (Source: FAS PSD Online)
300,000
MT (000)
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
19
75
/1
19 97
78 6
/1
19 979
81
/1
19 98
84 2
/1
19 985
87
/1
19 98
90 8
/1
19 991
93
/1
19 994
96
/1
19 99
99 7
/2
20 000
02
/2
20 00
05 3
/2
20 006
08
/2
00
9
0
Feedgrains
Feedgrains: corn, barley, oats, and sorghum
Wheat
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
31
How Did We Get Here?
•
Imbalance of trade, investment, and savings
between trade surplus countries (China) and
trade-deficit countries (U.S.).
–
U.S. has been at the party too long



–
Spending instead of saving and investing
Running up debts on low interest rates
Irrational Exuberance (aka: stupidity)
Morning/Hangover came in 2nd half of 2008

Likely continue until the end of 2009 first half of
2010.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
32
Short Term Impact of Crisis
•
•
Hit 1: Crisis was worldwide causing a fall
in incomes and thus a fall in demand
Hit 2: The U.S. while hit hard still had a
stronger position than much of the rest of
the world and thus the dollar actually
strengthened
–
Causing U.S. products to be more expensive

Ag Exports fell

Ag Prices fell
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
33
U.S. $ Index, July 2007-Oct 2009
July
2008
Copyright 2009 INO.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
34
Long Run ????????
•
All Depends on the adjustments and realignments of savings, investment and trade.
–
Do we re-ignite the party




–
High U.S. spending
High foreign investment in the U.S.
Low U.S. savings
That is: continued and further imbalances
Result for U.S.: Fun in the short run, but a new
hangover to follow
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
35
OR ????????
•
Do we rebalance exchange rates, savings,
investment, and trade re-alignment that puts
the world on a more sustainable economic
growth path.
–
–
Good for the U.S. in the long run
A step back for the trade surplus countries
(China) that have been supplying the party.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
36
World
Income
World Situation to Farm Income
Flow of
Agricultural
Imports & Exports
Energy
Demand
and Prices
World
Currency
Exchange
Rates
Biofuel
Demand
and Prices
Demand for U.S.
Products
(Exports)
Demand for
biofuel raw
material (corn)
Agricultural
Commodity
Prices &
Production
Farm
Income
37
What the 2008/2009 World
Economic Crisis Means for
Global Agricultural Trade
August 2009 Report by the Economic
Research Service
WRS-09-05
May Peters, Mathew Shane, & David
Torgerson
38
The Study
•
•
Simulation model developed to reflect the
onset of the Economic crisis from
December 2008 forward
Reference scenario plus two alternatives:
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
39
Reference Scenario
•
Based on:
–
–
–
World economic recovery beginning in late
2009
Slow appreciation of the U.S. dollar
Modest Economic (GDP) growth in the world
and in the U.S.


Initial contraction
Builds back to a long-term just over 2% per year.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Ref. Scenario: Real U.S TradeWeighted Exchange Rate (the lower the
40
better for exports)
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
Value of the dollar is going up,
but that is from a near 30 year
low. Back to average.
70.00
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
60.00
History
Source: ERS, 2005 base
Forecast
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
41
Reference Scenario, Real GDP
Return to a pre crisis
state with slight edge in
favor of the U.S. vs
ROW, thus the $ increase
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Ref Scenario: Real U.S. GDP
Growth Comparisons (the lower the better
for exports)
Source: ERS, 2005 base
42
GDP recovers back to a
long term average
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
43
Reference Scenario
Ag Commodity Prices
•
Initially
–
–
Value of dollar rises
GDP Falls


Consumption growth rate falls (demand falls)
U.S. Exports fall

Commodity prices fall
• Dramatically in the beginning (we’ve seen that)
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
44
Reference Scenario:
Ag Commodity Prices
•
Long-Term
–
–
–
Dollar continues to grow which dampens any
big increases in commodity prices
GDP levels off in a way that slightly benefits
U.S. compared to ROW
Stabilize around 2012 to an equilibrium price
What will the equilibrium price be?
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
45
Must be a New Era
(Nominal Corn Prices, 1866-2008
5.24
4.50
4.00
4.13
3.50
3.14
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1865
1885
1905
1925
1945
1965
1985
2005
2025
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Nominal Corn Prices
Ranges based on all data recent and all periods and no outliers
all periods and recent
8
7
6.70
6.32
6
5
4
4.86
4.42
5.26
4.13
4.21
4.01
3.14
3
2
5.24
4.63
3.31
4.60
3.00
2.25
1
0
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Class III Prices – 1988-Present
Class III/BFP Prices
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
Jan-88
Jan-93
1988-Aug 98
Jan-98
Jan-03
Sep 98-Feb 04
Jan-08
Mar 04© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
48
Alternative Scenario 1:
High Dollar Value
•
Continuation of trade and savings
imbalances
–
Developing countries (China)


continue large trade deficits with developed
countries (U.S.)
continue larger savings rates and investment in
developed countries (U.S.).
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
49
Alternative Scenario 1:
High Dollar Value
•
For the U.S. this means
–
–
Investment and economic growth, maybe too
strong!
Strong economic growth makes our dollar
strong which dampens the attractiveness of
U.S. commodity exports

U.S. Dollar value is 40% higher in this scenario
versus reference scenario.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Real U.S Trade-Weighted
Exchange Rate (the lower the better for exports)
Source: ERS, 2005 base
50
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
High Dollar Scenario vs Reference:
Percent Change in Real GDP
51
After an initial recovery, U.S. may be partying too hard (again)
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
52
High Dollar Scenario Results
•
Higher dollar, less exports, lower Ag
Commodity Prices
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
53
Alternative Scenario 2:
Low Dollar Value
•
In one word – Balance
–
–
–
•
Significant reduction and realignment of world
trade and savings imbalances.
Re-balancing of capital flows
Economic growth is resumed, but at a more
sustainable long-term level.
Results in long-term, less volatile, and
sustainable growth and a lower valued
dollar
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Real U.S Trade-Weighted
Exchange Rate (the lower the better for exports)
54
Historically quite low, is that
sustainable?
Source: ERS, 2005 base
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Low Dollar Scenario:
Real GDP Growth Compared to Reference
Scenario – U.S. versus ROW
55
U.S. re-aligns in a way that results
in longer term sustainable growth.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
56
Low Dollar Scenario Results
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lower supply of capital from other
countries
Increased savings in the U.S.
Higher interest rates
More sustainable growth compared to rest
of world
Lower dollar
U.S. Exports more attractive
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
57
Low Dollar Scenario Results
Higher Ag Commodity Prices
BUT
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
58
BUT
•
•
•
•
•
Lower dollar value bucks a LT history
Will President(s) and Congress be satisfied
with a GDP that “falls” to a sustainable
level?
Impact of health care
Afghanistan
Will developing and emerging markets
accept policies that “correct” imbalances
that currently favor them?
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
So, What’s the Future?
A Guess:
•
•
59
Economic recovery in 2010
Comparatively more by U.S.
–
–
–
U.S. Dollar increases
Dampens prospects for any big increases in
U.S. Ag Commodity prices
Ag Economy slowly recovers to a steady state
in 2011-2012

Potential 80’s style re-structuring (especially in the
Dairy Industry)
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
60
Longer Term
Historical
Perspective
Gross Domestic Product Growth
Rate (through 2008)
7
6
5
4
World
3
2
1
0
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Source: World Bank Group:
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Goss Domestic Product Growth Rate
(through 2008)
7
6
5
4
3
High income
2
1
0
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Source: World Bank Group:
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Gross Domestic Product Growth
Rate (through 2008)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Low &
middle
income
2
1
0
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Source: World Bank Group:
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Gross Domestic Product Growth
Rate (through 2008)
14
12
10
8
6
East Asia
& Pacific
4
2
0
-2
1960 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009
Source: World Bank Group:
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Where is Population Growth
7000
6000
5000
World
4000
Low & middle income
3000
East Asia & Pacific
2000
1000
0
2006
Source: World Bank Group:
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Where’s the Population
Pop. (bil)
% of World
Rank
1
2
6
9
11
World
China
6.667
1.330
India
1.148
Indonesia
.238
19.9
17.2
3.6
Bangladesh
Nigeria
.154
.138
2.3
2.1
45.1
EU
.491
U.S.
.303
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census
7.4
4.5
4
5
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
67
Must be a New Era
(Nominal Corn Prices, 1866-2008
5.24
4.50
4.00
4.13
3.50
3.14
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1865
1885
1905
1925
1945
1965
1985
2005
2025
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
68
Real Corn Price (2009 base)
Corn
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Class III/BFP Prices
Class III Prices – 1962-Present
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Jan60
Jan65
1962-81
Jan70
1981-88
Jan75
Jan80
Jan85
1988-Aug 98
Jan90
Jan95
Jan00
Sep 98-Feb 04
Jan05
Jan10
Mar 04© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
70
Real Class III Milk Price (2009 base)
Milk
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
71
Food For Thought
•
•
It’s cliché, but it is a different world
Not worse, not better, just different
–
–
–
–
Emerging markets
Information economy
Energy
Climate Change
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
72
Food For Thought
We have been here
before:
1914
1945
1975
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
73
•
Swings between high, low, and zero profit
margins will be
–
–
–
•
•
•
Greater
More often
More dependent on timing
Need for greater cash management
Margin Management
Changing cost structure
74
•
•
•
•
•
Increased lender requirements,
documentation, and verification
Information management
Heterogeneity
Opportunities!!!
Marketing Psychiatrist
75
Return to Management and Labor
Milk
Price
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
10
Production
Matters
(143,977) (123,977)
(103,977)
(83,977)
11
(124,977)
(80,977)
(58,977)
12
(105,977)
Price
(81,977) Matters
(57,977)
(33,977)
13
(86,977)
(60,977)
(34,977)
(8,977)
14
(67,977)
(39,977)
(11,977)
16,023
15
(48,977)
(18,977)
11,023
41,023
16
(29,977)
2,023
34,023
66,023
17
(10,977)
23,023
57,023
91,023
80,023
116,023
(102,977)
18
8,023
44,023
$137 hay, $4.00 corn, $300 SBM
76
Increase in Feed Costs
Decrease in Feed Costs
-15%
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
-10%
-5%
23,000
Avg
5%
10%
15%
Input Costs Matter
(85,938) (93,206) (101,166) (109,923) (119,117) (128,311) (137,505)
(62,938) (70,206) (78,166)
(86,923)
(96,117)
(105,311) (114,505)
(39,938) (47,206) (55,166)
(63,923)
(73,117)
(82,311)
(91,505)
(16,938) (24,206) (32,166)
(40,923)
(50,117)
(59,311)
(68,505)
6,062
(1,206)
(9,166)
(17,923)
(27,117)
(36,311)
(45,505)
29,062
21,794
13,834
5,077
(4,117)
(13,311)
(22,505)
52,062
44,794
36,834
28,077
18,883
9,689
495
75,062
67,794
59,834
51,077
41,883
32,689
23,495
98,062
90,794
82,834
74,077
64,883
55,689
46,495
77
Management Matters
•
•
110 MN and WI farms, 500-1,500 acres
Average of 2006 and 2007
Net Ret.
Bottom
20%
20-40% 40-60% 60-80% Top 20%
7,737
22,232 52,427 39,856 110,988
Acres
340
308
407
237
416
Yield
164
165
178
174
183
Direct
Exp.
385
387
392
376
372
Dairy Enterprise ($/cow) 1996-2007
(101-200 cows, no org. or RG, MN&WI)
180000
160000
140000
120000
20 %-tile
50 %-tile
80 %-tile
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Net Return to Mgt/Labor
Source: Center For Farm Financial Mgt.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
80
Futures Prices in Context
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ay
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
O
ct
No
v
De
c
C-III/BFP Price
(Comparison of Feb 7 to Sept. 14, 2007)
Average
1996-2006 data
75 %tile
(2/7) 2007
Futures
(9/14) 2007
Anncd &
Futures
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
81
82
•
Look Backwards - Meticulous Attention to
Financials
–
–
Have a farm records system
Use the farm records system!

–
–
–
Know your costs of production, Know your margin
Know “at risk” versus “secured” costs
Sensitivity analysis
Prepare accurate financial statements
AND
Use them to evaluate your profit blueprint.
83
•
Look Forwards: Cash Flow/Enterprise Budgets
–
–
•
TOTAL Communications
–
•
Plan your production, plan your cash flow,
communicate your plan, work your plan
Evaluate sensitivity
lender, broker, and other advisors.
Know what makes you money
–
Partial budgeting: production practices and inputs
84
Partial Budgeting
Additional Costs
Additional Revenues
Reduced or Lost
Revenues
Reduced or Eliminated
Costs
Dollars Lost =________ Dollars Gained = _____
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
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Know and use marketing tools and
strategies

Remember, It’s the Margin That Counts
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Farm Programs
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Insurance Instruments
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LGM-Dairy, Crop insurance
Levels of coverage
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Strategies for Down Times
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Flexible Lease Arrangements
Defer Capital Expenditures
Defer Income Taxes
Refinance long-term obligations
Borrowing against Equity capital, but with planned
repayment
Compare financing rates

Careful: one needs committed friends in down times
Source: Edwards, William. “Managing through a recession: options for
farm operators. Ag Decision Maker, Iowa State Extension
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Aligned/Cooperative Business Structures
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Value-Added, Branded Products
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Not less risk, just different
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Change Your Marketing Mindset
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Know where your risk is
Sources: Websites
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The Oil Drum: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/5/215316/408
Association for the Study of Peak Oil: http://aspo-usa.com/
Oil Market Report: http://omrpublic.iea.org/
Now and Future: http://www.nowandfutures.com/index.html
WTRG Economics: http://www.wtrg.com/
World Bank Group: http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers
Farm Foundation: http://www.farmfoundation.org/
USDA Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/
Trading Charts, Inc: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CHOICES: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/issue.php
Foreign Agricultural Service: http://www.fas.usda.gov/default.asp
University of Illinois Farmdoc website: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//
Iowa State University Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
University of Wisconsin, Center for Dairy Profitability: http://cdp.wisc.edu/
University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management: http://www.finbin.umn.edu/
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/weodata/index.aspx
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Sources: Written Articles
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Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food
Commodity Prices. USDA/ERS, July 2008. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/WRS0801/
Bahn, Henry. “Commodity Prices Rock World Markets: Structural Shift or Short Term
Adjustments?” Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt 2008 23(2).
http://www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/issue.php
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Westhoff, Pat. “Farm Commodity Prices: Why the Boom and What Happens Now?” Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt
2008 23(2).
Lawrence, John D., James Mintert, John D. Anderson, and David P. Anderson. “Feed Grains and Livestock:
Impacts on Meat Supplies and Prices.” Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt 2008 23(2).
Irwin, Scott H., Philip Garcia, Darrel L. Good and Eugene L. Kunda. “Recent Convergence Performance of
CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts.” Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt 2008 23(2).
Mark, Darrell R., B. Wade Brorsen, Kim B. Anderson, and Rebecca M. Small. “Price Risk Management
Alternatives for Farmers in the Absence of Forward Contracts with Grain Merchants.” Choices, AAEA, 2nd
qrt 2008 23(2).
Abbott, Philip C., Christopher Hurt, and Wallace E. Tyner. “What’s Driving Food Prices?” Issue
Report from the Farm Foundation, July 2008.
http://www.farmfoundation.org/news/templates/template.aspx?articleid=404&zoneid=26
Fortenbery, T. Randall and Hwanil Park. “The Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National
Corn Price.” Univ. of WI-Madison Dept. of Ag and Applied Econ: Staff Paper no. 523, April 2008.
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Sources: Written Articles
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Irwin, Scott. “Crop value and volatility in a new era” 2008 Illinois Farm Economics Summit,
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//presentations/index.asp .
Schnitkey, Gary. “Prospects for Crop Production Costs” 2008 Illinois Farm Economics Summit,
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//presentations/index.asp .
Schnitkey, Gary. “Farm Economics Facts & Opinions”, Department of Agricultural and Consumer
Economics, College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciencds, university of Illinois at
Urbana-Shampaign, FEFO 08-13, July 11, 2008.
Duffy, Michael, and Darnell Smith. “Estimated Costs of Crop Production in Iowa- 2009,” Ag
Decision Maker, Iowa State University, University Extension, FM-1712 Revised, December 2008.
Duffy, Mike. “Estimating costs of crop production for 2009,” Ag Decision Maker Newsletter, Iowa
State University, University Extension, January 2009
© 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team