Download Dias nummer 1

Macroeconomic benefits of attracting
international students
Helsinki, September 24, 2013
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Head of Section
Danish Agency for Universities and Internationalisation
Ministry of Science, Innovation and Higher Education
[email protected]
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The Reason
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Increasing number of international
students in Denmark
20000.0
18000.0
16000.0
14000.0
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
-
Exchange
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
Full-degree
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The yearly intake of international
students
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Nordic
1.298
1.435
1.561
1.616
2.030
2.141
2.024
Other EU/EEA
1.478
1.655
2.121
2.971
4.071
5.147
5.854
Non-EU/EEA
1.595
1.053
1.211
1.663
1.674
1.399
1.443
Total
4.371
4.143
4.893
6.250
7.775
8.687
9.321
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Retention and employment
Retention
Year of Graduation
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
After 1 year
47
51
52
54
56
55
After 2 years
42
45
46
49
50
-
After 3 years
38
39
41
44
-
-
Employment
Year of Graduation
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
After 1 year
82
73
74
72
75
74
After 2 years
83
74
73
73
74
-
After 3 years
83
72
73
73
-
-
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
A need for more knowledge
Existing knowledge:
•
Attracting international students and recruiting
from the Study in Denmark initiative (input)
•
Student satisfaction and perception of studying in
Denmark (process)
•
Retention and employment (output)
No knowledge:
•
Long term effects of international students
(outcome)
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The Model
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The DREAM model - I
•
•
•
•
Danish Rational Economic Agents Model
Based on registry data from Statistics Denmark
The DREAM system is used to evaluate the longterm development of public finances in Denmark
The central question is whether the fiscal policy is
sustainable based on two variables: the future
revenues and future expenditures of the public
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The DREAM model - II
The total DREAM system consists of three premodels:
· The population projection model,
· The education projection model,
· The socioeconomic projection model,
They feed into:
· The DREAM economic model.
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Example of calculation
•
•
•
•
5000 immigrants are introduced into the
population model
In the education model they are assigned a level
of education
In the socioeconomic model they are assigned a
labor market category
In the DREAM economic model, public finances
are calculated for the alternative population
development with 5000 additional immigrants.
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The Analysis
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Three experiments
A.
B.
C.
An annual increased influx of 1,000 immigrants from
Western countries with Bachelor’s degrees; all of whom
are accepted for Master’s programmes and where the
Danish state finances the educational costs.
An annual increased influx of 1,000 immigrants from nonWestern countries with Bachelor’s degrees; all of whom
are accepted for Master’s programmes and where the
educational costs are borne by the student based on
tuition fees.
An annual increased influx of 1,000 immigrants from
Western countries with Bachelor’s degrees; all of whom
are accepted for Master’s programmes and where the
educational costs are borne by the student based on
tuition fees.
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The results
•
•
•
•
Overall, the analysis shows that there is a
socioeconomic benefit in attracting international
students to study a full Master’s programme, even if
the programme is financed by the Danish state
Experiment A (No tuition – western) lead to a lasting
annual increase of the primary public budget of DKK
0.75 billion
Experiment B (Tuition – non-western) lead to an
annual increase of DKK 0.36 billion
Experiment C (Tuition – western) lead to an annual
increase of DKK 0.79 billion
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Variation relative to the baseline in the primary
public balance, 2011 level
DKK Bn.
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
0
Experiment A
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
Experiment B
Experiment C
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Labour Force and GDP effets
Change in population and
labour force
Change in GDP
60000.0
12
50000.0
10
40000.0
30000.0
20000.0
10000.0
Population
change Exp. A
and C
Labour force
change Exp. B
Labour force
change Exp. A
and C
8
Change to GDP
(DKK bn.) Exp.
A
6
Change to GDP
(DKK bn.) Exp.
B
4
Change to GDP
(DKK bn.) Exp.
C
2
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
.0
Population
change Exp. B
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Validity
Analysis can be seen as slightly conservative
•
•
•
•
Models the whole group of western and non-western
immigrants in the relevant age and education bracket
Does not take productivity effects into account
Level of education and demographics not directly
linked
The main conclusion of the analysis, that attracting
international students is socioeconomically beneficial,
is however viewed to be fully valid.
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
The Usage
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen
Usage
•
•
•
•
Often cited in media when international students
are discussed
Have been confirmed by different economic
experts
Used politically in support of international
students coming to Denmark to study
Has been an important input in the discussion
concerning the ECJ-ruling on access to SU
Ministry of Science, Innovation
and Higher Education
24 september 2013
Helsinki
Jonas Husum Johannesen