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Northern NM Regional Economic Development Initiative
State of the Region Conference
October 29, 2009
First Regional Econometric Report
Barbara Deaux and Fred Brueggeman, NCNMEDD
How do we measure progress?
• A long-term plan requires long-term measures of
accomplishments
• The REDI Region competes not only within New
Mexico, but with surrounding states and the world
• To measure progress, REDI must know its starting
point
• These measures only partly reflect the recession
Economic Indicators
▲
►
◄
▼
◙
REDI region outperforms both the U.S. and
the Southwest Region.
REDI region outperforms either the U.S. or
the Southwest Region.
REDI region is at or near the status quo
REDI region shows little or no economic
performance relative to the U.S. and the
Southwest
REDI region fails to take action on a known
problem
REDI Report Performance Measures
Twenty-Five Year Goals
▼
1.
“Increase the percentage of private sector
employment in northern NM to more than 80%.”
“I”
2.
“Increase competitiveness by closing the gap
between percentages of private sector
employment in northern NM and the US in NAICS
codes that represent REDI’s target industry
clusters.”
3.
“Close the gap between income and poverty levels
in northern NM and the US by ensuring that the
average wage of all jobs created exceeds $40,000
per year.”
◄
Private Sector Employment ▼
Regional private sector employment fell more than in the US or
Southwest region.
Income and Poverty Levels ◄
The region has closed
the gap with the US
and Southwest with
income levels, but its
poverty rates are
increasing. Earnings of
new hires have yet to
show progress toward
the creation of higherpaying jobs.
Regional Gross Domestic Product ►
Regional GDP growth outperforms US and Southwest;
total GDP per capita is still slightly below the US and Southwest.
GDP = total consumer spending + investment + total government spending +
the value of exports – the value of imports.
Regional Employment Growth ►
Regional employment growth outperforms the US.
+8,648 Jobs; 7.7% Growth
+3,286,000 Jobs; 2.4% Growth
+2,119,818 Jobs: +11.7% Growth
Regional Unemployment Rate ►
Regional unemployment is lower than the US or the Southwest region.
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
U.S.
Southwest Regon
REDI Region
6/08
7/08
8/08
9/08
10/08
11/08
12/08
1/09
2/09
3/09
4/09
5/09
6/09
7/09
8/09
9-Sep
Percent Unermployed
Monthly Unemployment Rate
June, 2008 - September, 2009
10.0%
8.0%
REDI Region
6.0%
Los Alamos
4.0%
Rio Arriba
2.0%
Santa Fe
0.0%
6/08
7/08
8/08
9/08
10/08
11/08
12/08
1/09
2/09
3/09
4/09
5/09
6/09
7/09
8/09
9-Sep
Percent Unemployed
Monthly Unemployment Rate
June, 2008 - September, 2009
Taos
Regional GRT Growth ►
Regional GRT growth
outperformed the State of
New Mexico. No national or
regional comparisons are
available.
Percent GRT Growth
1st Quarter 2008 - 4th Quarter 2008
Taos
Santa Fe
Rio Arriba
Taxable
Total
Los Alamos
REDI Region
New Mexico
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Regional Human Capital Status ◄
FUTURE WORKFORCE: The region falls below the US and
the Southwest region for spending per student.
Regional Human Capital Status ◄
FUTURE WORKFORCE: The region outperforms the US in reading
proficiency, but is status-quo or below in math proficiency.
Grade 4 Reading
Percent "Proficient"
Grade 8 Reading
Percent "Proficient"
100
100
80
60
40
20
0
80
60
40
20
0
U.S.
Southwest
Region
REDI
Region
Los
Alamos
Rio Arriba Santa Fe
U.S.
Taos
Grade 4 Math
Percent "Proficient"
Southwest
Region
REDI Los Alamos Rio Arriba Santa Fe
Region
Taos
Grade 8 Math
Percent "Proficient"
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
U.S.
Southwest
Region
REDI Los Alamos Rio Arriba Santa Fe
Region
Taos
U.S.
Southwest
Region
REDI
Region
Los Alamos Rio Arriba Santa Fe
Taos
Regional Human Capital Status ◄
EXISTING WORKFORCE: The region outperforms the US and the Southwest in
percent of workforce with a HS degree and BS degree or more.
Regional Human Capital Status ◄
EXISTING WORKFORCE: The region outperformed the US and the Southwest in
median HH income growth. The region’s median HH income is now equal to the US.
Where do we go from here?
• What measures of economic strength are
most useful for charting long term progress?
• What measures should be added to an annual
econometric report?
• How can REDI communities use these
measures to set goals and determine
strategies?