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The London Economy Justine Lovatt - LCCI Economist 1 May 2003 Introduction • Most government London economic data stops in 1999. • Chamber runs London Economy Research Programme – NIESR London model and London Economic Review • Chamber London Monitor business confidence surveys Economic Growth Forecasts London’s GDP in 2002 • NIESR forecast London’s GDP rose by 2.4% in 2002. • Above the Office for National Statistics figure for the UK of 1.8% for 2002. • Like the UK London has moderate growth but is not in recession. London/UK GDP 1998-2005 Annual Change in London and UK GDP 1998-2005 (1995 Prices) 7% 6.4% 6% 5% 4% 4.2% 3.3% 3% 3.1% 2.2% 2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 London GDP - Workplace 2003 UK GDP 2004 2005 High Growth Sectors in 2002 NIESR London Model forecasts for 2002: • Construction 7.6% growth due to the property market boom. • Wholesale and retail 4.1% growth. • Public sector and hotels and catering also performed well. Weak Sectors in 2002 NIESR London Model forecasts for 2002: • Manufacturing was in recession, as in the UK, with output falling by 4.5%. • Finance grew by just 0.4% in 2002 caused largely by Stock Market falls. Effects of Stock Market Falls • On 12 March FTSE 100 fell to a near 8year low to below half its 1999 peak. • 3½ years of Stock Market falls have led to City job losses and problems for company final salary pension schemes. • Difficulty raising money via the Stock Market has contributed to low business investment. London Growth in 2003 • NIESR forecast London to grow by 2.8% in 2003, up from 2.4% in 2002. • The forecast is optimistic and there are risks to NIESR’s London’s growth forecast . . . Risks To The Forecasts Risks To The Forecasts • Iraq war impact to be added. Estimates vary from positive IoD to £1bn cost GLA. • Tax rises: 1% NI, council tax, business rates. • Risk of property price slowdown. • Central line closure, congestion charging and terrorism. • Potential threat of SARS. Housing Market Fall Scenario A scenario was run to show the impact of a 20% fall in house prices by Q4 2003: • Consumption would be 0.8% lower in London than base forecast in 2003. • GDP growth in London would be 0.5% lower in 2003 and a further 0.5% lower in 2004 than the base forecast. Unemployment in London Unemployment in London • Unemployment in London is the highest in the UK at 6.8% (ILO). • Since the mid-1990s unemployment has fallen in both the UK and London. • There are currently 248,000 unemployed people in London. Unemployment By UK Region Regional ILO Unemployment December 02 to February 03 6.8% 7% 6% 5% 6.6% 6.1%5.9% 5.5% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.4%4.4% 3.9% 4% 3% 2% 1% Lo nd o N n .E a Sc st W otla .M n id d la nd N s .I re la nd Yo N rk .W s e & H st um be r W al E. M es id la nd s Ea s S. t E a S. st W es t 0% 3.6% Unemployment by Area Claimant Count by Area of London Inner London: East 5.7% London Total 3.7% Inner London: West 3.5% Outer London: East & North East 3.2% Outer London: West & North West 2.9% Outer London: South 0% 2.4% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% The London Monitor The London Monitor • The London Monitor is an LCCI monthly survey of business confidence. • Quarterly surveys are conducted in conjunction with the British Chamber of Commerce. • Balances show % of respondents expecting an improvement less % expecting things to worsen. UK Economy Predictions Q1 2003 London Monitor Survey showed business confidence for next year: • Fallen to its lowest since September 11 for UK growth (balance of -51%). • Lowest for over 5 years for London growth (balance of -16%). London Economy Predictions Business Confidence in London Growth (Next 12 Months) 100% Weighted Balance (+/-) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 98 98 99 99 99 99 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 03 Company Performance Q1 2003 survey showed: • A balance of +1% said that their company’s output has increased over the past month. • A balance of +29% said their company output will increase over next 12 months. Conclusions • NIESR forecast growth of 2.8% in 2003. • This forecast is optimistic and may soon be downgraded due to the Iraq war, tax rises, falling business confidence etc. • Risk from inflated housing market. • 2004 and 2005 growth expected to be in-line with UK at around 2.5%.