Download www.case-research.eu

Ye. T. Gaidar
State of the World Market and
Prospects for Economic Policy in
Russia.
22 January 2008, Institute for the Economy in Transition
1
Annual GDP growth rates in Russia, %
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
-2
-4
-6
-8
2
Annual growth rates of investments, %
25
20
15
10
5
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
-5
-10
-15
3
Growth rates of incomes in real terms, %
20
15
10
5
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
-5
-10
-15
-20
4
Growth rates of output in manufacturing, %
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
-10
-20
Machinery and equipment total
Electronics and optics manufacturing
Transport vehicles and equipment
5
Exports of machinery and equipment from
Russia, %
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
-5%
-10%
-15%
6
Growth in communication sector, %
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
7
Output growth rates: extractive industries
versus manufacturing, 2003-2007
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2003
2004
Extractive industries
2005
2006
2007*
Manufacturing
8
Growth rates of world GDP (left-hand scale)
and price trends for crude oil and metals (righthand scale)
6
70
60
5
50
40
4
30
20
3
10
0
2
-10
-20
1
-30
-40
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
*
0
весь мир
нефть
металлы
весь мир (среднее)
9
Net inflow/outflow of investments in developing
countries, billion USD (left-hand scale)
and world GDP growth rates (right-hand scale)
150
6
100
5
50
4
0
3
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-50
2
-100
1
-150
0
приток/отток капитала, млрд. долл.
темпы роста мировой экономики
10
Thailand’s balance of capital transactions before and
during the Asian financial crisis, % of GDP
15
10
5
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
-5
-10
-15
-20
11
GDP growth rates in Thailand,
1992-1998, %
10
5
0
1992-95
1996
1997
1998
-5
-10
-15
12
GDP growth rates in China,
2000-2007 and forecasts for 2010, %
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
2000-2005
2006
2007
2008*
2009*
2010*
13
Growth rates of Consumer Price Index in China,
2000-2008, %
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000-2005
IMF data
2006
2007
2008*
China's official statistics
14
Growth rates of world GDP, Russia’s GDP, and
GDP of the CIS excluding Russia, 1996-2008
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
-2
-4
-6
-8
World total
Russia
CIS (excl. Russia)
15
Russian Exports in 2006
Other
commodities 14%
Machinery,
equipment and
transport vehicles
6%
Metals and metal
products
14%
Mineral products
66%
16
Economic growth and General Government budget
deficit/surplus (as a share of GDP) in USA
6
4
2
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008*
-2
-4
-6
-8
GDP growth rates
Budget surplus/deflict
17
Federal and General Government’s
Budget Surplus (left-hand scale)
and GDP growth (right-hand scale)
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
General government budget surplus
Federal budget surplus
GDP growth rates
18
General government’s expenditures growth rates
in Russia, %
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
-5
19
Crude oil prices in the long run, constant 2000 dollars
Price, 2000 constant USD per 1 barrel *
80
70
Average annual price
60
50
Average historic level (19.41 USD per barrel)
40
30
20
10
0
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
20
UK Brent prices in 2007
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
jan
feb
mar
apr may june july aug sept oct
US dollars per barrel
nov dec
Euros per barrel
21
Consumer Price Index growth in Russia, %
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
22
Real wages growth rates, %
25
20
15
10
5
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
23
Proportion of Russian industrial enterprises that
name workforce shortage as an obstacle to output
growth (polls data), %
50
40
30
forecast
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
24
Net import/export of capital by private sector in
Russia, in billions of USD
100
80
60
40
20
0,1
0
-20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-40
25
Russian external debt, in billions of USD
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2001
2002
Private sector
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
Public sector
26
Russian gold and foreign currency reserves
by end of year, in billions of USD
600 000
500 000
400 000
300 000
200 000
100 000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
27
Russian Stabilization Fund by 31 December
of corresponding year (as a Share of GDP)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
28
General Government’s budget revenues growth
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
29
Russia and France: average annual growth
of government revenues, in %
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
France (1950-1980)
Russia (Gen. Govt.) 2000-2007
30