Download Folie 1

AQUA-CSP
Work Packages:
1. Technologies (combination of CSP and desalting technologies)
2. Water and Solar Energy Resources
3. Demand Side Scenario
4. Market Potential 2000-2050
5. Socio-Economic Impacts
6. Environmental Impacts
7. Literature
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Population Prospects
AQUA-CSP
700
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Population in MENA
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
500
400
300
200
100
50
20
45
20
40
20
35
20
30
20
25
700
Year
Population [millions]
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
0
20
Population [million]
600
600
500
400
Urban
Rural
300
200
100
0
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
Year
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Economic Growth
AQUA-CSP
North Africa
Western Asia
Arabian Peninsula
Morocco
4.6
Jordan
4.4
Oman
3.2
Algeria
4.0
Lebanon
4.2
Kuwait
2.1
Tunesia
3.6
Syria
4.7
Qatar
1.9
Libya
3.8
Iraq
5.6
Saudi-Arabia
2.7
Egypt
4.1
Iran
3.8
UAE
1.8
Israel
1.9
Yemen
6.5
Palestine
4.6
Bahrain
2.3
Reference U.S.
1.2
Long-term
average per
capita growth
rates of GDP
Arabian Peninsula
North Africa
60
50
Oman
Kuwait
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Yemen
Bahrain
40
30
20
10
0
20
00
GDP [1000 $/cap PPP]
GDP [1000$/cap PPP]
60
50
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
Egypt
40
30
20
10
0
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
Year
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
Year
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
AQUA-CSP
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Water Demand Model
 (t )   (t  1)  (1   (t )) 
 (t  1)
 (1   )
 (t )
Sector
Irrigation
Municipal
Industrial
Driving Force γ
Population
GDP
GDP
Best Practice Effic.
βirr = 70 %
βmun = 85 %
βind = 85 %
Progress Factor
αirr = 50 %
αmun = 65 %
αind = 65 %
General End Use
Eff. Enhancement
μirr = 0
μmun = 1.8 %/y
μind = 1.8 %/y
 (t )   (t E )   (t )   (t S )  (1   (t ))
 (t E )   (t S )    (   (t S ))

t  tS
tE  tS
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Water Demand Prospects by Country
AQUA-CSP
Freshwater Demand [billion m³/y]
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Water Demand Prospects by Sectors
Freshwater Demand
[billion m³/y]
AQUA-CSP
500
500.0
450
450.0
400
400.0
Industrial
Municipal
350
350.0
300
300.0
250
250.0
Sustainable
Water Used
200
200.0
Agricultural
150
150.0
100
100.0
50
50.0
0
0.0
00
0
2
5
0
20
10
0
2
5
1
20
0
2
20
25
30
0
0
2
2
Year
5
3
20
0
4
20
5
4
20
0
5
20
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Deficits by Country
AQUA-CSP
Freshwater Deficit [billion m³/y]
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
AQUA-CSP
Type of Scenario
Progress Factor αirr for
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Scenario Variations
Business As Usual
AQUA-CSP
Extreme Efficiency
20 %
50 %
100 %
20 %
65 %
100 %
30 %
50 %
75 %
Irrigation Efficiency
Progress Factors αmun, ind
for Distribution Efficiency
Waste Water Re-Use
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Scenario Variation Business As Usual
AQUA-CSP
Business As Usual Scenario
600
600.0
500
500.0
Industrial
Municipal
400
400.0
300
300.0
Sustainable
Water Used
200
200.0
Agricultural
100
100.0
0
20
00
Freshwater Deficit [billion m³/y]
Freshwater Demand
[billion m³/y]
Business As Usual Scenario
0.0
20
05
20
10
15
20
20
20
2
5
02
30
20
35
20
2
0
04
2
5
04
2
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
05
Year
Year
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
600
600.0
500
500.0
400
400.0
Industrial
Municipal
300
300.0
Sustainable
Water Used
200
200.0
Agricultural
100
100.0
0
00
20
0.0
20
05
20
10
20
15
2
0
02
20
25
Year
2
0
03
2
5
03
40
20
20
45
20
50
250
Freshwater Deficit [billion m³/y]
Freshwater Demand
[billion m³/y]
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Scenario Variation Extreme Efficiency
AQUA-CSP
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
600
600.0
500
500.0
400
400.0
Industrial
Municipal
300
300.0
Sustainable
Water Used
200
200.0
Agricultural
100
100.0
0
250
Freshwater Deficit [billion m³/y]
Freshwater Demand
[billion m³/y]
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
0.0
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
Year
30
20
35
20
40
20
20
45
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
50
20
Year
Extreme Efficiency Scenario
600
600.0
500
500.0
400
400.0
Industrial
Municipal
300
200
Agricultural
100
300.0
Sustainable
Water Used
200.0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
0
2
20
25
30
20
20
Year
35
20
40
20
20
45
50
20
250
Freshwater Deficit [billion m³/y]
Freshwater Demand
[billion m³/y]
Extreme Efficiency Scenario
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Coincidence with other Analysis
AQUA-CSP
60000
Savings until 2025 [Mm³/y].
Total Water Demand (GCC Countries)
Water Demand [BCMY]
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1990
2000
AQUA-CSP
2010
2020
2025
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Abu-Zeid 2004
ESCWA 2001
AQUA-CSP
Total Water Demand (Mashreq)
Total Water Demand (North Africa)
160
140
140
120
Water Demand [BCMY]
Water Demand [BCMY]
Re-Use
Ind./Com.
Municipal
Irrigation
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1990
2000
AQUA-CSP
2010
2020
Blue Plan 2005
2025
1980
1990
2000
AQUA-CSP
2010
2020
Al-Zubari 2002
2025
AQUA-CSP
WP 3: Freshwater Demand
Conclusions
 MENA population will double by 2050
 MENA economies will approximate European level by 2050
 Water demand would grow from 270 Bm³/y in 2000 to 460 Bm³/y in 2050
 Water deficit would increase from 50 Bm³/y in 2000 to 150 Bm³/y in 2050
 Over-use of groundwater is already above 45 Bm³/y
 Extreme efficiency could limit deficit to 100 Bm³/y
 Efficiency and new sources will be required to cover water deficits