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VPRI-051019-RiMont-P0 The information contained in this document belongs to Value Partners S.p.A and to the recipient of the document. The information is strictly linked to the oral comments which were made at its presentation, and may only be used by attendees of that presentation. Unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this document is strictly forbidden and may be unlawful. A new vision of Turkey: partner for innovation Dott. Riccardo Monti Rome, October 19th 2005 0 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P1 Contents of the document • Macroeconomic scenario • R&D and high-tech in Turkey For the conditions of use of this document please refer to the front page 1 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P2 Macroeconomic status: A potentially high growing country 2004 Macroeconomic overview Population Turkey Italy - Growing population with a strong urbanization trend - High GDP growth: 72 million 57,9 million % Population below poverty threshold ~30% ~12% . The country real GDP expanded by approximately 25% on a cumulative basis in the last 3 years Number of Businesses 1,8 million 4,2million . General Consensus forecast GDP growth to slow down to 5% - 6% in 2005 Number of Households 15,1 million 22,8 million GDP (PPP Adjusted) 530 Bln Euro 1.360 Bln Euro Real GDP Growth 8,5% 1,2% 7.358 Euro 23.500 Euro 10,6% 2,3% GDP per capita (PPP Adjusted) Inflation (Average) . Turkey’s inflation rate, measured by CPI, declined from an average of 77,5%, in the 90s and 18,4% in 2003 to 9,3% at the end of 2004 . Analysts expect inflation to fall further in the near future - Strong local currency: . The Turkish Lira has performed extremely well in 2004 rising both against Euro (4Q 2004) and against the dollar TLC Services Penetration Residential Fixed phone (on HH) 94% 80% Mobile phone (on population) 54% 102% Internet subscribers - Decreasing inflation rate: 10,3 million 22,6 million . Analysts expect a modest depreciation of the Lira in the coming years - Turkish unemployment rate, now at 9,7%, is expected to decrease to 9,1% in 2006 2 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P3 Turkey is fully recovering after the 2001 economic crisis… 2005 CAGR Real Turkish GDP growth, % to previous year GDP by country in USD billion (not adjusted for PPP) US Japan 8,9% 7,5% 7,9% 7,2% 10,875 4,190 Germany 5,9% 4,5% 3,1% UK 1,779 France 1,705 Italy 1,462 China 1,372 Canada -4,7% 2,384 860 Mexico 615 India 573 S. Korea 515 Brazil 493 -7,4% +4.1% 1997 1998 1999 2000 +16,0 % 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E TURKEY 300 Source: Turkish Ministry of Economy, Is Investment 3 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P4 Where consumption is increasing thanks to under-control inflation and growing income… Consumer Price Inflation index, % Income distribution 86,0% 84,7% Turkey, 2003 EU 15, 1997 % Total Income 50% 64,8% 56,4% 53,5% 48,0% 25,3% 10,6% 9,5% 50% 40% 38,4% 30% 23,2% 17,2% 20% 10% 13,1% 8,1% 21% 14% 10% 5% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E GDP per capita (USD) 1. %20 % Population 2. %20 3. %20 4. %20 5. %20 Private consumption growth 4.110 4.307 9,2% 3.382 3.062 6,6% 2.681 2.194 4,5% 5,2% 2,1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E Source: Turkish Ministry of Economy, State Institute of Statistics, Is Investment, Garanti Investment, Value Partners analysis 4 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P5 … while the country is becoming much more attractive for foreign investors 2005 Total Turkish FDI, USD billions Sectoral breakdown of FDI Major foreign acquisitions in Turkey (2000-2004) 43.895 40.310 Agriculture 37.018 31.752 33.995 29.027 44,0% 25.550 53,0% Acquirer (country) Sector TIM (Italy) Telco Ford (USA) Automotive Unicredito (Italy) Financial Toyota (Japan) Automotive Danone (France) Food Manufacturing Mining 1,3% 1,8% 1999 Rank in FDI Confidence Index 2000 2001 23 2002 2003E 29 24 2004E Services 2005E Turkey is the most attractive FDI destination in Near East & Middle East region Starting of negotiations with EU is expected to further stimulate FDI inflows to Turkey Source: Turkish Ministry of Economy, Value Partners analysis 5 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P6 Italy, although being late in direct investments, still remains an important strategic partner… 2004 Total accumulated FDI in Turkey, Between 1980-2Q/2003 by country of origin Turkish foreign trade volume btw. Jan-Sept 2004 (Imports & Exports) 100% = 35 Mld USD Import 100% = 115 Mld USD Belgium 1,6% Export Total = 11,4 mld USD 1,1% Luxemburg Japan ITALY France 6,0% 6,2% Germany Other 44,9% 18,7% 13,4% Switzerland 6,8 7,6% ITALY 7,1% 18,1% 12,5% Holland 6,6% UK Russia 13,2% USA Holland 2,5% 14,9% Germany 6,4% 3,7% 6,1% 6,3% 3,0% China Spain UK • Equipment & Machinery (40.0%) • Automotive(9.5%) • Chemicals (8.0%) France 4,6 • Automotive (24.4%) • Equipment & Machinery(14.6%) • Texztiles and cotton (11.3%) USA Source: ICE 6 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P7 … reaching top values in 2004 Turkeys foreign trade evolution (Billion USD) Import 160,6 Export 115.6 87.6 82.3 62,9 Italy’s weight on Turkish foreign trade 10,8% 46.9 9,9% 72.7 9,5% 9,2% 36.0 27.8 31.3 97,7 7,1% 68.7 54.5 51.5 41.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Italy’s share in Turkish foreign trade (Billion USD) 1.8 6,1 5,8 2.2 6,3 3.1 8,5 2001 2002 2003 2004 11,4 4.3 3.5 4.1 5.4 4.6 6.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2.3 2000 Source: ICE, Value Partners Analysis 7 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P8 Italian companies operating in Turkey have triplicated in number during the course of last 10 years… Millions USD, December 2004 Stock # Comp. Italian FDI in New Europe 4.500 16.000 4.000 3.500 1.200 3.000 2.500 650 2.000 510 300 1.500 300 250 1.985 473 1.000 500 4.089 Poland Turkey Czech 743 Romania 1.032 Slovakia 716 Bulgaria 1.182 Croatia Source: National Banks or Investment Agencies 8 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P9 … by localising mainly in the western regions of the country Various projects JV con Koc Group in Koc Financial Services Various projects 40% of AVEA (3rd GSM operator) ISTANBUL Pharmaceuticals Insurance Company Izmit ANKARA Asset Management Rep. Offices … and a lot of small and medium sized firms in food, consumer goods, services… Bursa Production of refirgerators Various projects Tyre & Cable Production plant Manisa Gaziantep Adana IZMIR Total: around 300 firms with Italian ownership Magnet production plant Agricultural machinery production plant JV con Koc Group in TOFAS 9 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P10 Contents of the document • Macroeconomic scenario • R&D and Hi-Tech in Turkey For the conditions of use of this document please refer to the front page 10 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P11 Turkey has a weak track record on R&D and innovation but current efforts seems to be promising 2005 Past - Weak national policy definition regarding research and high tech - Weak implementation of policies due to bureaucracy - Lack of education and dedicated human resources - Lack of transferring funding to R&D and innovation - Lack of creating a social awareness Present Future - Governments strong commitment to set national policies and 5 year development plans - Clearly defined roadmap to: . Raise funding for innovation . Develop adequate HR . Increase R&D spending of private and public sectors . Increase participation in international projects - The Scientific and Technological Research council of Turkey (TUBITAK) has defined a “Vision 2023 of Turkey ” project with the aim of creation of a society which: . is competent in science and technology . is capable of developing new technologies . possesses the skill of converting technological developments into social and economic benefits - Implementation is crucial in order to reach the objectives of 5 year development plans and to reach future Turkey vision 11 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P12 Currently overall R&D penetration and private sectors weight on R&D remains low compared to European average in terms of spending and dedicated human resources… 2005 R&D employees by 1.000 employees National R&D spending over GDP Number of Employees Percent 13,77 4,27% 1,98% 6,00 5,68 0,64% 1,10 EU-15 Max. EU-15 Average Turkey 2,00% Turkey 2013 Target Private sector R&D empl. / Total empl. (public + priv.) Percent EU-15 Max. EU-15 Average Turkey Turkey 2013 Target R&D spending: Private sector / Total (public + priv.) Percent 71,90% 66,10% 49,70% 50,00% 56,10% 56,10% 42,90% 16,50% EU-15 Max. EU-15 Average Turkey Turkey 2013 Target EU-15 Max. EU-15 Average Turkey Turkey 2013 Target Source: TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research council of Turkey) - Vision 2023 12 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P13 …but there are signs of increasing activity on R&D and innovation 2005 Automotive District Textile District - Advanced Engineering (robotics) Biotechnology Chemistry Electronics Environment Health Care & Medicine Nanotechnology ICT (software - ICT Energy Environment Agro Food Material sciences Chemistry Electronics Biotechnology - Chemicals District Nanotechnology Aerospace Biotechnology ICT Energy Environment Agro Food Material sciences Aerospace & Defense District Running R&D Projects Number of Projects CAGR - ICT - Electronics 2.600 ISTANBUL +25% Izmit - ICT ANKARA 837 982 1.212 1.199 1.353 Bursa - ICT - Biotechnology - Robotics Manisa IZMIR - ICT (software development) - ICT Electronics (defense) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E - Health Care & Medicine Biotechnology Health Care & Medicine Adana Advanced Engineering (aerospace, defense, advanced materials) - Nanotechnology Number of Tehcnoparks and running R&D projects are increasing thanks to industry-university cooperation driven also by foreign investments but commitment is needed to reach EU levels 13 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P14 Turkey has some unique strengths and opportunities that can boost innovation if risks are properly addressed… Strengths Weaknesses - Young population open to adapt new technologies - Local scientific community with strong international connections - Availability of resources with international experience - Insufficiency of of education system in promoting research and development - Lack of strong R&D incentive tools and financial structure to support industry - Increasing presence of techno-parks, companyuniversity cooperation, R&D incentive mechanisms - Lack of coordination between universities, companies and other related parties to realise projects - Strongly developing IT and communications sectors - Highly developed consumer electronics, textiles and automotive sectors focusing on R&D to increase competitiveness Opportunities Threats - EU membership perspective and access to international funds - Difficulty to retain qualified human force against attractive European and US employment opportunities - Political instability of Turkeys neighbours and global economic fluctuations - Quickly developing, difficult to catch-up, international science and high tech environment - Strategic position, proximity to strategic markets like EU, Russia and Middle East - Opportunities arising from high amount of obligatory investments- due to delicate geographic position- in Aerospace and Defence - Proximity to strategic energy sources - Inability to attract R&D investments and know how of international investors due to strategic importance - Worldwide availability of financing to invest in R&D 14 VPRI-051019-RiMont-P15 …in collaboration with its strategic business partners • Althoug there are signs of incresing R&D and Innovation activity, Turkey needs strong collaboration from European countries to be able to implement defined policies in terms of: - Funding - Know how & education - Cooperation in international projects 15