Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at Economic Prospects for CESEE Region and Key Challenges Peter Havlik The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) 20 Years of Economic Reform in CESEE Paneuropean University Bratislava, 8th February 2013 3 External environment and impacts on CESEE Euro area in recession (2012-2013) with shallow recovery (2014-2015) ahead CESEE: after a weak recovery 2010-2011 growth has slowed down anew in 2012 Recession in some NMS and most of SEE ‘Fringes’ (RU, UA, KZ) more resilient than the core (NMS, SEE), at least so far wiiw 4 External environment and impacts on CESEE World market commodity prices (affect ‘fringes’) EU in turmoil (affect mostly ‘core’) Austerity economics prevails nearly everywhere Weaker growth expected also in the medium-term A new growth model ? From export-led to domestic demand driven growth ? wiiw 14 Evolution of GDP growth drivers, 2009 - 2015 no. of countries with positive/negative contributions to GDP growth Household final consumption Government final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Trade balance 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 + 5 10 14 11 14 16 16 - 11 6 2 5 2 0 0 + 10 8 9 9 12 13 15 - 6 8 7 7 4 3 1 + 1 6 11 9 14 16 16 - 15 10 5 7 2 0 0 + 16 9 8 11 9 6 6 - 0 7 8 5 7 10 10 Note: A figure in a + row indicates the number of countries that had a positive contribution. A figure in a - row indicates the number of countries that had a negative or stagnant contribution. Source: wiiw estimates incorporating national and Eurostat statistics. wiiw 16 Prospects 2013 - 2015 Growth can rely less on the contribution of the external sector Thus, greater dependence on domestic demand needed But: - Consumption and investment demand characterized by difficult financing conditions and deleveraging processes - Fiscal policy in most countries excessively restrictive Therefore: dampened recovery processes will extend well over 2013 and afterwards Slower growth expected also in the medium-run Serious implications for labour markets, in parts of the region even dramatically high unemployment is here to stay wiiw 17 Prospects 2013 - 2015 (cont’d) North-South divide(s) in Europe deepens: country groups in CESEE (CE-3, Baltics perform better than HU, Sl, HR; rest of SEE and GIPS) Most important differences across countries: - Debt build-up prior to the crisis (mainly of the private sector) - Longer-term weaknesses of the export sector; exchange rate regime - Different responses in terms of economic policy (in particular fiscal policy; wage policy etc.) Expected impact of the economic policy reformulation of the eurozone; different impacts on EU-, Euro-zone, non-members) Next EU budget likely curtailed, yet Vienna Initiative 2.0 may partly help as EBRD, EIB, The World Bank will provide additional funding (EUR 30 bn) wiiw 18 Medium-term threats and opportunities EU muddling through (baseline scenario) 2012-2013 rather disappointing in terms of growth the next forced rebalancing not yet over - threat #1: recession in euro area deepens in 2013 while austerity continues (multipliers discussion) - threat #2: EU (eurozone) implodes, recession returns opportunity: austerity relaxed/suspended EU policy orientation overhauled, closer integration wiiw 19 GDP growth rates 2012 and forecasts for 2013 - 2015 7 6 2012 2013 2014 2015 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 LV KZ RU LT EE SK PL AL BG RO UA EA MK BA ME CZ HU HR RS SI Source: wiiw (February 2013), European Commission (Autumn Report, November 2012) for EA. wiiw