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The European Chemical Industry: Cefic Economic Outlook June 2014 Dr Moncef HADHRI (Chief Economist) Economic Affairs Manager [email protected] June 20, 2014 1 The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rises further in the EU • • The (ESI) is calculated as a weighted average of five confidence indicators, industry (40%), services (30%), consumers (20%), construction (5%) and retail trade (5%). The ESI in May 2014 was well above its long term average (1990-2013) for the eighth successive months since September 2013 Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis Still the highest ESI value since 3 years (May 2011) 2 A non-stop improvement of EU consumer confidence • • EU consumers’ views on future general economic situation, the level of future unemployment, and their savings expectations improved further Consumer confidence was far above its long term average (1990-2013) for the sixth consecutive months since November 2013 Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis Confidence closed to the pre-crisis peak level (2007) 3 Confidence improved significantly in the EU chemicals industry (blue line) Assessment of order books and stock showed favourable developments 4 EU capacity utilisation registered the highest level since almost 3 years Still only 0.5% below the long term average (1995-2012) 5 EU chemicals production rose for the fourth successive quarter But still 6% below the peak level of Q1-2008 6 Apart from petrochemicals, all EU chemicals sectors are closed to their long term average Consumer chemicals is far above its long term average 7 Apart from petrochemicals, all sectors experienced output growth (y-o-y) Source: Cefic EOTF (Economic Outlook Task Force) May 2014 8 Where will we be tomorrow? “He who speaks about the future lies, even when he tells the truth.” (Proverb from Middle East) World Economic Activity Oil prices and Energy costs Trade EX-Rates European Chemicals Growth Consumer Confidence Industrial Development Business Climate 9 GDP outlook: 2014-2015 Source: Cefic EOTF (Economic Outlook Task Force) May 2014 10 Global industrial production showed more dynamics than world economy Production rose in the industrial countries, and all major sectors contributed to growth 11 Where will we be tomorrow? 2013: - 0.2%, 2014: 2.0%, 2015: 1.5% Outlook revised upward compared to October 2013 12