Download Financial Globalization

Thai Econ under The PM. Y-Luck
(Within The First 100 Days & After Onwards )
Super Leadership NIP’s Plus-3
Version-1 (Sep-2011)
By
ดร. ธรรมนูญ อานันโทไทย
At Chularongkorn University
Saturday of September 17, 2011
Time 10:00am to Noon Time
1
THE BUSINESS CYCLE by Harvard Business Review
TOP OF THE BOOM DURING THE LAST 160 YEARS
Rising Real Estate Values
12
Easier Money
11
Rising
Overseas
Reserves
Rising
Commodity
Prices
Rising Share
Prices
Falling Interest
Rates
Rising Interest
Rates
1
10
Falling
Share Prices
2
9
3
8
4
7
5
6
Falling Real Estate Values
September 17, 2011 DEPTH OF THE RECESSION
Falling Commodity
Prices
Falling Overseas
Reserves
Tighter Money
2
Contents:
Topic #1:
Topic #2:
Good Old Days from The NIPs !!
The Outside-In during
the First 100 Days of
The PM. Y-Luck
15-Minutes Intermission at 11:10am
Topic #3:
Topic #4:
September 17, 2011
The days (?) after the First
100 Days of The PM. Y-Luck
Wrap-Up with Your Q & A
3
Topic #1
The Good Old Days
From
The NIPs !!!
September 17, 2011
4
Farmer vs. Hunter
2008-9
2010-11
2008-9
2010-11
September 17, 2011
5
Balance Sheet (Bt.)
(Statement of Financial Position)
D&E
Assets
Current Asset
xxxx
Short-Term Debt
xxxx
Fixed Asset
xxxx
Long-Term Debt
xxxx
Total Debt
xxxx
Equity
xxxx
Total Debt &
Equity = 100%
xxxx
Total Assets
= 100%
xxxx
6
IRR
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
“Versus” Internal Rate of Revenue (IRR)
Return required
by Lenders
(______%)
Debt
Proposal
(_______%)
Return required by
Shareholders
(________%)
_______%
Equity
Proposal
(________%)
______%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) = _______%
Period
0
1
2
3
IRR (_____%) > WACC (_____%)7
September 17, 2011
ROIC & ROCE
Debt Ratio (x)
EPS (Bt.)
Debt with InterestP/E (x)
Bearing (x)
BV (Bt.)
Interest Coverage (x)
P/BV (x)
D/E Ratio (x)
ROE (%)
(A) Assets
Performance
(WAC & NFA)
September 17, 2011
(B) Profitability
Performance
(Gross Margin, EBI- Margin,
& NP-Margin)
(C) Company
Performance
(ROA & ROE)
8
Bottom Line of Topic #1:
SET-Comparison of Listing Performance
Financial
Ratios
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
D/E Ratio (X)
1.13x
1.28x
1.07x
1.17x
1.16x
Interest
Coverage (X)
8.0x
7.8x
7.1x
7.9x
8.3x
Net Profit
Margin (%)
10.2%
8.5%
8.1%
14.38%
6.54%
ROIC (%)
19.8%
18.7%
18.0%
15.20%
4.84%
11.24%
7.18%
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
22.20% 19.80% 19.17%
15.32% 15.48%
9
Topic #2
The Outside-In
during the first 100 days
of
The PM. Y-Luck
September 17, 2011
10
Money Making The World Moving!
September 17, 2011
Source: Modify from Tisco Research
11
Who’s most in debt?
Who owns the US.
Debt? (US.$Trillion)
(1)US.Fed & US Gov.= $6.0
(2) US. States+Private=$3.8
(3) China = $1.1
(4) Japan = $0.9
(5) Other Foreign = $2.4
(Our BoT = $0.187)
Total (1) thru (5) = $14.27Tr.
(99.76 of USA’s GDP)
September 17, 2011
US.$Trilion
USA=US.$14.27Tr.
(or = 99.76% of GDP)
Japan=13.79
(or = 234% of GDP)
Italy
2.56
(120%)
S’pore
Greece
0.254
(95%)
0.434
(139%)
Portugal
0.202
(87%)
Source: Fortune/Aug. 15, 2011
12
Econ Trouble on URO Zone
(Versus USA & Japan)
#
2010-GDP
(US.$ Bill.)
2011Unemployment
Current A/C
(% of GDP)
1 Greece
$305
15%
(10.4%)
2 Portugal
$229
12.4%
(9.8%)
3 Spain
$1,406
20.7%
(4.5%)
4 Italy
$2,048
8.1%
(3.5%)
5 France
$2,556
9.7%
(2.1%)
6 UK
$2,246
7.6%
(2.5%)
7 USA
$14,517
8.8%
(3.2%)
8 JapanSeptember 17, 2011
$5,464
4.6%
+3.6%
Country
13
US.Quantitative Easing 1 & 2
*** QE #2 ***
***QE #1***






Timing 2006-2008
Amount US$1.7Tr.
Write Down MBS (Subprime)
USD Shortage & USD Swap
US$1.05Tr. up over US. Fed
No Impact Velocity of Money







Timing Q4/2010 – Q2/2011
Amount US$600B.
US$75B/Month
Primary Auction to US. Treasury
Secondary Market Auction as well
Target Increasing Money Velocity
Support Real Sectors
Questions: (1) QE = World Export Inflation? (2) Inflation: Supply
Shock or Demand Pull (3) Assets Class: Equities and/or
Commodities, (4) Who will get benefit on QEs? & (5) Will we ever
have QE#3? if yes, then how much?, when? & benefit to whom?
September 17, 2011
14
USA versus China on Q4/2010
#
Items
1 Population (Million Persons)
2 GDP (US.$ Tr.)
USA
China
311.6
1,340.1
14.0
5.0
3 Holding Gold Reserves (Tons)
8,133.5 4,216.4
4 FOREX Reserves (US.$ Tr.)
none
2.Tr.++
5 Hourly Minimum Wage (Thb.)
217.50
179.00
6 Trade Surplus/Deficit (US.$Tr.)
September 17, 2011
(0.20)
+0.20
15
The Creation of Worldwide Liquidity
2009-Source of Funds (%)
(1) Central Banks
1
Power Money by the
Monetary System
(2) Lending (Money Mkt.)
9
Broad Money
(3) Capital Market
10
Securitized Debt
created by Capital
Market System
(4) Derivatives
80
Debt Link to Equity
& Asset Underlying
(10 Times of Worldwide GDP)
Total (US$570 Trillions) 100%
September 17, 2011
16
Bottom Line of Topic #2:
Futures, Forward, Options & SWAP
17
Making Money
Losing Money
15-Minute of Intermission
at 10:10am
Giant of Wat Arun
Giant of Wat Pra Kaew
18
Topic #3
The days (?) after
The first 100 days of
The PM. Y-Luck
September 17, 2011
19
Balance Sheet (Bt.)
The PM. Taksin “versus” The PM. Y-Luck
Assets
Debt & Equity
Current Asset
xxxx
Short-Term Debt
xxxx
Fixed Asset
xxxx
Long-Term Debt
xxxx
Total Debt
xxxx
Equity
xxxx
Total Debt &
Equity = 100%
xxxx
Total Assets =
100%
xxxx
20
BCG-Matrix
September 17, 2011
21
14-Local Business Clusters
(High-Potential Outlook since PM.Taksin’s Regime)
(1) Foods
(2) Textile & Garment
(3) Shoes & Leather
(4) Wood Products & Furniture
(5) Medicine & Chemical Products
(6) Rubber & Products
(7) Plastic Products
September 17, 2011
(8) Ceramics & Glasses
(9) Electrical & Electronics
Appliances
(10) Motor Vehicles &
Auto Parts
(11) Jewelry & Accessories
(12) Iron & Steel
(13) Petrochemical
Products
(14) Pulp & Paper
22
(CASH GENERATION)

Asian Market
1. Chicken
2. Computer Parts
3. Plastic Pellet
4. Hot-Rolled Steel
5. Air Conditioner
6. Pulp & Paper
Fruit Cans
Cash
Cows
HIGH
?
World Market
1. Shrimp
2. Jewelry
3. Ceramic
4. Garment
5. Leather Bag
Asian Market
1. Medical
2. Furniture
3. Plastic
4. Jewelry
1. Plastic
2. Truck
3. Computer
4. Iron
World Market
1. Drug & Medicine
2. Synthetic Fabrics
3. Wood Furniture
4. Chicken
LOW
Shoes
World Market
LOW
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
(CASH USAGE)
MARKET GROWTH RATE
RELATIVE MARKET SHARE
DOGS
LOW
Asian Market
Shrimp
23
Relation of Income Flows and Cash Out Flows from Operations, Investing and
Financing at Various Stages of Product Life Cycle
Revenues
Net
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Decline
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Decline
Income
+
0
Cash
Flows
Operations
+
0
Investing
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Decline
Financing
September 17, 2011
24
Balance Sheet (Bt.)
(Statement of Financial Position)
Debt &
Equity
Assets
Current Asset
xxxx
Short-Term Debt
xxxx
Fixed Asset
xxxx
Long-Term Debt
xxxx
Total Debt
xxxx
Equity
xxxx
Total Debt &
Equity = 100%
xxxx
Total Assets
= 100%
xxxx
25
Bottom Line of Topic #3
Farmer vs. Hunter
2008-9
2010-11
2008-9
2010-11
September 17, 2011
26
Topic #4
Wrap-Up
+
Q&A
[email protected]
Good Luck to NIP-Plus-3
September 17, 2011
September 17, 2011
27
Compare Between Cash Market
“versus” The Futures Market
Cash Market
(Equity & Debt)



Listed Shares
No Time Limit
No Need Deposit
(Except Net Settlement but T+3)

ROI on Dividend + Rights
Offering + Capital Gain
Futures Market






September 17, 2011

Contract by the Underling
Assets (Commodity &
Derivative Financial Products,
Metals, ect.)
A Period of Time Limit
Margin System
10% of Minimum Deposit
Mostly 30% Additional Deposit
During Last Week Before
Delivery Month
Upto 50% or More During
Delivery Month
ROI on Maximum Capital
28
Gain
Question you should ask me!
Worldwide Conditions:









Deflationary Tendencies
Worldwide Commodities
Regional Ideas & Strategy
Commodity Bull Market
Spot & Futures Trend
USD-Discount QE3???
EUR, JPY & GBP …..?
???
???
September 17, 2011
Local Approach:










Inflationary Target (BoT)
Low Interest Rate (MoF)
Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy
Local Interest Trend
Fixed Income vs. Equity
Futures & Options
Investment-FIF
Assets Allocation
????
????
29
ดร.ธรรมนูญ อานันโทไทย
[email protected]
Merchant Partners Securities Public Company Limited
ใช้ ชีวติ เรียนหนังสื อตั้งแต่ ระดับมัธยมศึกษา (High School) จนจบปริญญาเอก (Ph.D.) ในสหรัฐอเมริกา เป็ นเวลาติดต่ อ
นานกว่ า 16 ปี เมื่อกลับมาประเทศไทย ได้ ทางานในแวดวงตลาดทุน (Capital Market) เป็ นเวลากว่ า 26 ปี โดยมี
ตาแหน่ งครั้งสุ ดท้ ายคือ President & CEO ของบริษัทหลักทรัพย์ DBS Thai Danu Securities Ltd. อันเป็ นสถาบัน
การเงินในกลุ่ม Temasek & DBS Group ของสิ งคโปร์ ที่ใหญ่ ที่สุดในเอเชียใต้ ต่ อมา Early Retirement ได้ รับเลือกให้
ดารงตาแหน่ คณบดีคณะบริหารธุรกิจ มหาวิทยาลัยธุรกิจบัณฑิตย์ ปี การศึกษา 2544-45 and Completed 5-IOD
Courses by Thai-Institute of Directors: DAP-48/2005, ACP-10/2005, DCP-70/2006, RCP-14/2006, & UFS7/2007.
**ปัจจุบัน – (Present Year - 2011)**
(1) Chairman, Board of Directors of Vintage Engineering Public Co. Ltd. (VTE)
(2) Vice Chairman & Audit Chairman, Board of Directors of IFS-Capital (Thailand) Public
Company Limited-IFST (An IFS Group of Singapore)/IFS
(3) Vice Chairman & Audit Chairman, Board of Directors of Better World Green Plc. (BWG)
(4) Chairman of The Audit Committee & Director, Eastern Printing Public Co. Ltd. (EPCO)
(5) Executive Director & Chief Economist, Merchant Partners Public Co. Ltd. (SET-Broker #21)
(6) Director & Audit Committee of Property Perfect Public Co. Ltd. (PF)
(7) กรรมการในสายงานเศรษฐกิจของสภาอุตสาหกรรมแห่ งประเทศไทย (Federation of Thai Industries)
(8) Ex-Board ในตลาดสินค้ าเกษตรล่ วงหน้ าแห่ งประเทศไทย (Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand-AFET)
(9) Member of The Audit Committee-Board of Trustees of Bangkok University
(10 Independent Director of Thai Union Frozen Products Public Company Ltd. (TUF)
September 17, 2011
30