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Where is the World Heading in 2009?
Simeon Djankov
Chief Economist. Finance and Private Sector
World Bank Group
UPC Annual Conference
Lima, December 15-16
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GDP, trade, private investment
• World GDP growth to slow to 0.9% in
2009, could be as low as 0.4%.
– Lowest on record since 1970
• International trade to record a fall (-2.1%)
– Lowest since 1975
• Private investment to halve
– From $1.03 trillion in 2007 to about $500
billion in 2009 (for emerging markets, from
7.6% of GDP to 3%).
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Growth in Latin America in 2009
• From 5.7% in 2007, to 4.4% in 2008, to
2.1% in 2009
• Biggest drops:
– Venezuela (from 10 to 5.3 to 1% in 2009)
– Argentina (from 8.7 to 6.6 to 1.5% in 2009)
– Ecuador 0.8% gdp growth in 2009
– Mexico (1.1%); Brazil (2.8%); Bolivia (3.6%)
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Fastest growth in Latin America in 2009?
• Peru, projected at 5.2%
• Various reasons
– Good reformer (#62 in Doing Business 2009)
– Diversified exports
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Where is the World Heading in 2009?
Simeon Djankov
Chief Economist. Finance and Private Sector
World Bank Group
UPC Annual Conference
Lima, December 15-16
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