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Optimal Currency Areas Costs and Benefits compared Lotte Ovaere Louvain Institute for Ireland in Europe – Spring 2012 Introduction Evaluate decision of EU countries to form a monetary union Evaluate economic desirability for new EU member states to join the EMU 2 Costs and benefits compared Relating benefits and costs to openness of a country Critical level of openness Shape and position of cost curve depend on view about effectiveness of national monetary policies in dealing with asymmetric shocks Monetarist view Keynesian view Popularity of monetarism since 1980s 3 Intra-EU trade Country 2005 Intra-union exports (% of GDP) Belgium/Luxembourg 66.7 Slovakia 58.9 Netherlands 51.1 Hungary 43.7 Ireland 34.7 Austria 28.1 Denmark 23.1 Germany 22.0 France 13.7 Italy 12.2 UK 9.8 Greece 4.0 4 Monetary union, flexibility and mobility Degree of wage and price flexibilities influences cost benefit analysis of MU Countries with low price and wage rigidities experience lower costs entering MU Similarly, higher labor mobility lowers costs of being in a MU 5 Asymmetric shocks and labor market flexibility Degree of labor market flexibility (wage flexibility and labor mobility) determines attractiveness of MU But! Size and frequency of asymmetric shocks equally important Asymmetric shock = differences in industrial structures between countries Cost line shifts to the right Relation labor market flexibility and asymmetric shocks in a monetary union 6 Asymmetric shocks and labor market flexibility Central insight Theory of OCA: Benefits of monetary union depend on balancing asymmetric shocks and labor market flexibility Downward sloping OCA curve Zone to the right of OCA line: OCA zone Location of EU-25? Of Euro zone? And USA? 7 Challenge of EU-25: Move into OCA zone Two strategies Reduce degree of asymmetric shocks Increase degree of flexibility (real wages/labor mobility) Difficulty with first strategy: little influence of policy makers Exception: Political unification Special problem: Organization of labor union in a MU Two opposite requirements for optimal organization: 8 In the presence of asymmetric shocks In the presence of symmetric shocks Centralized wage bargaining system @ EU level? Case study: Adjustment process after asymmetric shock Early 1980s: severe recession in industrial world Economic downturn had very different effects on different countries/regions Michigan (US) vs. Belgium (EU) Increase in unemployment much higher in Michigan and Belgium than in US and EU (respectively) How did two regions adjust? 9 Michigan Outward migration: Sizeable fraction of unemployed moved Very little real depreciation (few percentage points) Only possible through prices (common currency!) Fiscal policy: Automatic transfer of purchasing power to Michigan via US Federal transfers and taxes Inter-regional solidarity 10 Belgium Real exchange rate changes: Real depreciation of Belgian Franc of 20-25% Restore competitiveness, gradual recovery, significant narrowing of unemployment difference between Belgium and EC Real depreciation: partly nominal devaluations, partly lower cost and price developments relative to main trading partners Very little outward migration of unemployed Fiscal policy: No EU-federal redistribution Intergenerational solidarity 11 Costs and benefits in the long run Dynamic analysis Relation between degree of economic integration and occurrence of asymmetric shocks European Commission view of monetary integration Optimistic Krugman view of monetary integration Predicts whether progress towards economic integration leads to economic convergence Pessimistic Self-fulfilling character of joining the MU 12 Challenge of EMU enlargement: New members Degree of openness Asymmetric shocks New member states (Central Europe) at least as open to EU25 as ‘old’ EU New member states more integrated than ‘opt out’ countries (UK, Sweden and Denmark ) Correlation pattern of demand and supply shocks for some central European countries very similar to Euro zone Integration and satisfying optimal currency criteria made easier by joining Euro zone Import monetary and price stability 13 Staying out leads to large exchange rate volatility Challenge of EMU enlargement: Original members Wait longer until they reach OCA zone ECB policy less aligned with their needs (less perceptive to their national shocks) Both in optimistic and pessimistic view 14 Challenge of EMU enlargement Role of ECB Can only set one interest rate: fine tuning interest rate impossible Make sure individual member countries have instruments to deal with asymmetric developments 15 Progress towards labor market reform: Flexibility probably only available instrument to adjust to asymmetric shocks Should UK join EMU? Cost side Openness: UK lowest degree of openness towards rest EU (except Greece) Asymmetry: Flexibility: 16 Demand shocks UK negatively correlated with those in rest of EU (independent monetary policy) Supply shocks only weakly correlated with those of Euro zone UK labor markets more flexible than major Euroland countries (Germany, France, Italy) Illustration: UK inflation and unemployment after oil shock (1979) and recession (1990s) performed much better than in Germany and France (more rigid labor markets) Lack of desire to join a MU Should UK join EMU? Benefits Similar to those of other countries, but smaller: Benefits of MU in function of openness Compensation by special position of City of London as major financial centre Conclusion 17 If other countries came to a positive cost-benefit analysis, why not UK? Remark! Existing EMU members would not benefit from UK entering: UK represents 20% of Euro zone’s GDP +significant asymmetric shocks ECB decisions less consistent with their needs Thank you and good luck with the exam! 18