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Federal
Planning Bureau
Economic analyses and forecasts
Economic budget 2008
Evaluation of risks and uncertainties
Economic budget of January 2008: key figures
2007
2008
Domestic demand growth
2.9
2.1
Contribution of net exports to GDP growth
-0.1
-0.1
GDP growth
2.7
1.9
Inflation
1.8
3.0
Health index increase
1.8
2.8
68.1
46.6
7.6
7.3
Employment (annual change, ‘000 persons)
Eurostat unemployment rate
Economic budget
Partial decomposition of quarterly economic growth
Economic budget
GDP growth and leading indicator
Economic budget
Monthly development (yoy) of consumer prices
Technical simulation
Shock on internal prices with effect on inflation of 0.4%
2008
Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %)
Domestic demand
-0.09
Gross domestic product
-0.05
Consumer price index
0.40
Health index
0.44
Hourly wage cost
0.31
Terms of trade
0.01
Employment
-0.10
idem, thousands of persons
-2.87
Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro)
Receipts
441
Expenditures
321
General government balance
120
idem, in % of GDP
0.04
Risks and uncertainties
Growth of relevant export markets (1)
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
00Q1
01Q1
02Q1
03Q1
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
Relevant export market growth (annualised 4-quarter moving average)
07Q1
08Q1
Leading indicator
Risks and uncertainties
Growth of relevant export markets (2)
2007
2008
2.6
1.9 (1.7)
2.6
1.8 (1.7)
United States
2.1
2.0 (1.5)
Japan
1.9
1.6 (1.4)
Relevant export markets
7.1
6.0 (5.6)
Euro area
Germany
Figures for 2008 in the economic budget are based on OECD forecasts of December 2007
Figures between brackets are based on March averages of the Economist poll of
forecasters
Risks and uncertainties
Monthly oil price developments
Risks and uncertainties
Monthly exchange rate developments
Technical simulation (1)
Downward revision relevant export markets of 0.4%
2008
Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %)
Domestic demand
-0.03
Exports
-0.28
Imports
-0.23
Gross domestic product
-0.09
Consumer price index
0.00
Employment
-0.04
idem, thousands of persons
-1.17
Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro)
Receipts
Expenditures
General government balance
idem, in % of GDP
-103
12
-114
-0.03
Technical simulation (2): Upward revision of oil
prices of 10% (in dollar and in euro)
2008
Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %)
Domestic demand
-0.11
Gross domestic product
-0.02
Consumer price index
0.33
Health index
0.18
Hourly wage cost
0.11
Terms of trade
-0.57
Employment
-0.05
idem, thousands of persons
-1.28
Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro)
Receipts
-145
Expenditures
287
General government balance
-432
idem in % of GDP
-0.13
Technical simulation: lower relevant export market
growth (-0.4%) and higher oil prices (+10%)
2008
Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %)
Domestic demand
-0.14
Exports
-0.25
Imports
-0.31
Gross domestic product
-0.09
Consumer price index
0.34
Health index
0.18
Hourly wage cost
0.11
Employment
-0.09
idem, thousands of persons
-2.45
Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro)
Receipts
-293
Expenditures
298
General government balance
-591
idem, in % of GDP
-0.17