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A View from Asia on the
Growing Fibre Demand by
the Packaging Industries
UK Corrugated Industry conference 2011
By R S Baxi
As President of the Paper Division
I Bring Greetings & Best Wishes
from BIR
GLOBAL PAPER PRODUCTION
• Based on 2009, global paper production was
about 370 Million Tons :
– Graphic Paper – 136 Million Tons ( 36.75%)
– Board / Packaging – 190 Million Tons (51.36%)
– Tissue Paper – 28 Million Tons (7.56%)
– Other Paper – 16 million Tons (4.34%)
Paper Production from 3 major paper
producing areas ( for 2009) :
• Asia – 157 Million Tonnes
• Europe – 101 Million Tonnes
• America – 84 Million Tonnes
• Others – 28 Million Tonnes
Recovered Fibre Collection, Consumption
& Export from CEPI Countries (2010)
MILLION TONS
TOTAL RECOVERED FIBRE USED BY THE
MILLS
49
TOTAL EXPORT TO ASIA
9.117
EXPORTS TO OTHER REGIONS
0.268
TOTAL COLLECTION
58.385
• 97% OF EXPORTS OF RECOVERED FIBRE WENT TO ASIA.
UK EXPORTS OF RECOVERED FIBRE
FOR THE FIRST 2 QUARTERS 2011
• TOTAL EXPORTS OF RECOVERED FIBRE WERE 2.29
MILLION TONNES OF WHICH :
TYPES OF RECOVERED FIBRE
VOLUME
MIXED WASTE
458,000
O.C.C
1,236,000
NEWS/MAGS
486,211
HIGH GRADE
111,906
Top 10 Largest Economies by GDP in
PPP terms: 2010 and 2020
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
COUNTRY - 2010
USA
CHINA
JAPAN
INDIA
GERMANY
RUSSIA
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE
BRAZIL
ITALY
GDP ( US $ Million )
14,802,081
9,711,244
4,267,492
3,912,911
2,861,117
2,221,755
2,183,277
2,154,399
2,138,888
1,767,120
COUNTRY - 2020
CHINA
USA
INDIA
JAPAN
RUSSIA
GERMANY
BRAZIL
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE
MEXICO
GDP ( US $ Million )
28,124,970
22,644,910
10,225,943
6,196,979
4,326,987
3,981,033
3,868,813
3,360,442
3,214,921
2,838,722
Total World GDP 2010 = $61,693,429
GDP per capita, the value of all final goods and services produced within a nation per capita, within a given year. The GDP figures
are derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations by the International Monetary Fund, which have been updated
according with the latest database released in October 2010.
PPP is a method of measuring the relative purchasing power of different countries' currencies over the
same types of goods and services, thus allowing a more accurate comparison of living standards.
GDP and Paper Consumption per Capita
for the Ten Largest Economies
COUNTRY
USA
JAPAN
FRANCE
GERMANY
UNITED KINGDOM
ITALY
RUSSIA
BRAZIL
CHINA
INDIA
GDP Per
Capita ($)
47,568
42,653
40,591
40,512
36,298
33,828
10,512
10,471
4,520
3,563
PAPER PRODUCTION
(MILLION)
83.8
28.93
9.87
23.17
5.28
10.11
7.56
9.15
78.03
8.5
POPULATION
(MILLION)
305
127
65
82
60
59
142
196
1,321
1,148
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
(KG/YEAR/PERSON)
297.1
233.6
178.7
231.7
201.2
205.7
37.5
39.5
44.7
8.5
MEXICO
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
9,243
2,963
1,155
5.594
7.22
1.31
109
237
86
64.8
20.7
36.6
Challenges of Global Trading
GLOBAL
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
CURRENCY
VOLATILITY
LOGISTIC
COSTS
DEMAND
• DOMESTIC/IMPORT
• STOCK LEVEL
GLOBAL
TRADE
QUAILTY
CONTROL
China’s Import Breakdown
2007
2008
2009
2010
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter
4th quarter
Total
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter
4th quarter
Total
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter
4th quarter
Total
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter
4th quarter
Total
America
2,657,470
2,309,945
2,517,402
2,460,785
9,945,601
2,764,604
2,649,353
2,739,309
2,540,901
10,694,166
2,657,470
3,063,209
3,140,913
2,891,036
11,752,627
2,869,778
2,658,755
1,721,651
2,871,397
10,121,582
Europe
1,934,247
2,031,983
1,731,510
1,433,049
7,130,789
1,893,676
2,239,518
1,893,837
2,133,216
8,160,247
1,955,261
2,817,607
2,647,252
2,063,402
9,483,521
2,064,358
1,833,944
1,001,478
1,812,605
6,712,384
Japan
803,428
893,276
800,090
670,430
3,167,224
668,680
759,717
861,488
675,259
2,965,143
892,194
1,431,963
956,105
837,404
4,117,666
877,998
1,011,863
505,674
824,481
3,220,016
Other Asia
370,086
388,230
402,972
373,539
1,534,828
361,709
412,057
373,410
294,040
1,441,217
350,921
385,380
359,317
338,716
1,434,333
335,089
347,705
233,670
396,371
1,312,835
Oceania
190,290
188,448
182,592
215,811
777,141
227,252
226,897
177,850
252,182
884,181
196,786
225,658
229,320
200,956
852,720
218,480
226,146
139,557
232,520
816,703
Africa
0
1,107
1,729
2,061
4,897
1,637
2,130
724
492
4,984
87
296
185
1,255
1,822
1,184
1,378
0
44
2,606
5,955,521
5,812,990
5,636,295
5,155,674
22,560,480
5,917,559
6,289,672
6,046,618
5,896,089
24,149,938
6,052,631
7,924,112
7,333,091
6,332,768
27,642,602
6,366,887
6,079,791
3,602,030
6,137,418
22,186,126
Comparison of Quarterly Recovered Fibre
Imports into China (2007-2010)
2007
2008
2009
2010
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
Mt
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter
4th quarter
China’s Imports for 1st & 2nd Qtr’s of 2011 & 2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
Continent 1nd Qtr (MT) 2st Qrtr (MT) 1nd Qtr (MT) 2st Qtr (MT)
America
2,869,778
2,658,755
3,103,259
3,227,922
Europe
2,064,358
1,812,605
2,000,213
2,034,366
Asia
1,213,087
1,359,568
1,222,227
1,202,552
Oceania
218,420
226,146
242,955
217,163
Africa
1,184
1,378
24
229
Total
6,366,887
6,058,452
6,568,677
6,682,232
Breakdown of Europe’s Exports to China for
1st Qtr’s of 2011 & 2010
EU country
U.K
Holland
Italy
Belgium
Germany
Spain
France
Ireland
Greece
Portugal
Norway
Slovenia
Poland
Sweden
Turkey
Russia
Total
2010
1st Qtr (MT)
698,146
428,744
172,377
171,057
170,636
158,399
111,979
53,101
34,448
20,475
16,967
7,653
5,073
4,775
3,950
1,956
2,059,739
2010
2nd Qtr (MT)
728,100
451,419
181,366
90,873
111,080
140,278
47,468
30,702
11,859
8,494
13,666
3,473
2,495
4,175
3,473
1,953
1,830,874
2011
1st Qtr (MT)
735,719
439,455
168,204
166,293
115,401
116,572
119,398
41,309
29,582
26,268
18,137
1,659
3,264
6,987
8,546
748
1,997,543
2011
2nd Qtr (MT)
758,662
471,396
154,891
178,081
101,992
92,596
134,007
52,330
30,999
17,076
16,438
1,905
1,962
7,863
10,259
2,127
2,032,584
CHINA’S LEADING BOARD MILLS
Company
Cap ( Million MT )
1
Nine Dragons Paper Holding
10
2
Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Co Ltd
4.18
3
Zhejiang Jian Paper Co Ltd ( Shanghai Taison Group )
1.55
4
Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Co
1.5
5
China Sunshine Paper Holding Co Ltd
1.1
6
Fujian Liansheng Paper Co
0.9
7
Guangzhou Wanlida Paper Product
0.7
8
Anuhui Shanying Paper Co
0.7
9
Zheijang Rongcheng Paper Co
0.7
10
Shandong Chenming Paper Co
0.6
11
Wuxi Rongcheng Paper Co
0.52
12
YFY Paper Manufacturing
0.45
13
Zhongshan Yongfa Paper Co
0.4
14
Zhongshan Lianhe Hongxing Paper Co
0.4
15
Zhangjiagang Huaxing Paper Co
0.4
INDIA’S LEADING BOARD MILLS
Paper Mill
Cap (Million Tons)
1
Century Pulp & Paper Ltd
0.14
2
NR Agarwal Industries Ltd
0.13
3
ITC Limited
0.065
4
Rainbow Papers Ltd
0.065
5
JK Papers Ltd
0.063
6
Global Board Ltd
0.056
7
Gayatrishakti Paper & Boards Ltd
0.045
8
Cheema Papers Ltd
0.038
9
Murli Industries Limited
0.030
10
Dev Priya Papers Private Ltd
0.017
Conclusion
• Global Populations is projected to grow by 2.8
billion in the next 38 years. This cause an
impact on the demand of packaging paper.
• The emerging market economies mainly China
& India, projects to grow fastest in both
population and fibre demand.
Conclusion
• Collection programs being implemented in
emerging markets will increase competition
on quality of fibre, quality to become
important.
• New regulations coming into force, EOW and
others will effect collection and sorting
systems.
THANK YOU
FOR LISTENING
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