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The Indian Automotive Industry A Perspective 1 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 2 Organization Structure – TATA Motors Senior Management Team R N Tata (Chairman – Tata Motors) Ravi Kant (Managing Director) A P Arya (President – Heavy and Medium Commercial Vehicles P M Telang (President – Light and Small Commercial Vehicles) P P Kadle (ED – Finance & Corporate Affairs) Rajiv Dube (Sr Vice President – Passenger Cars) Engineering Research Centre 3 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 4 World Vehicle Production Trends (in '000s) Asia’s share of the world vehicle production is growing significantly.. 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Source : OICA.net North America South America European Union Other Europe Japan Asia-other than Japan Data excludes 2-wheelers where Asia is not only the largest producer, but is also the largest market 5 State of the Global Automotive Industry Stagnant Sales except in Asia Over Capacity in most Regions Intense Product & Price Competition Industry Margins Under Pressure Most of Industry EVA negative Global Focus to Asia for growth 6 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 7 INDIA : An Introduction India USA Population : 1080 million 296 million States : 28 50 (+ 7 Union Territories) (+14 dependent areas) Geographical Area : 3.3 mn sq km 9.6 mn sq kms GDP - Nominal : US $ 0.67 trillion US $ 11.73 trillion US $622 US $ 3080 US $39,935 US $ 39,496 Per Capita Income - Nominal: Per Capita Income : (at Purchasing Power Parity) Estimates for 2004 Current Exchange Rate: 1 USD = INR 45 Sources:– IMF Data, The World Factbook, CIA Exchange Rate (PPP) : 1 USD = INR 10 (approximately) 8 Real GDP (USD Billion) 600 6.9% 5.4% After decades of indifferent growth, India’s economy is accelerating in the new millenium.. 500 400 586 548 473 5.8% 300 279 3.0% 200 100 3.2% 159 4.2% 118 60 86 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004 Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004 9 Per capita GDP (USD) 600 6.9% 3.6% Rapid increase in population in the last fifty years have negated the impact of economic growth in the past 500 400 300 546 511 466 3.6% 328 0.7% 0.8% 200 2.2% 199 216 231 1970 1980 164 100 0 1950 1960 1990 2000 2003 2004 Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004 10 Goldman Sachs predicts India to be the third largest economy in the world in absolute terms by 2025 Indian Economy already ranks 4th in the world in terms of GDP adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity GDP Growth Forecast % RANK COUNTRY GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 United States China Japan India Germany United Kingdom France Italy Brazil Russia 11,750,000,000,000 7,262,000,000,000 3,745,000,000,000 3,319,000,000,000 2,362,000,000,000 1,782,000,000,000 1,737,000,000,000 1,609,000,000,000 1,492,000,000,000 1,408,000,000,000 7.5 Brazil China 2.5 Russia 2045-50 2040-45 2035-40 2030-35 2025-30 2020-25 2015-20 2010-15 2005-10 0 2000-05 (*) Estimates for 2004 Source : The World Factbook - CIA India 5 11 India’s “Demographic Dividend” Average Median Age (Years) 50.00 45.00 40.00 42.64 India has one of the youngest population amongst all nations 42.16 38.99 35.00 38.85 36.27 30.00 32.26 27.81 25.00 27.60 20.00 24.93 24.66 23.98 Mexico India South Africa 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Japan Germany Source: The World Factbook, CIA UK France USA China Brazil World Year Average Median Age (Years) “Although it is the most populous country, because of Beijing’s long-standing one-child policy, China’s working age population will begin to decline in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, India’s youthfulness - 350 million citizens are under age 15 - ensures its workforce will expand for decades, potentially enabling it to outstrip China’s economic pace through sheer weight of numbers.” Time Magazine, Issue dated Dec 05, 2005 12 India has transitioned from a predominantly agrarian to a service-based economy in line with the growth trajectory followed by major developed economies.. The Indian Economy is now more broad-based and thus resilient.. Sectoral Share of GDP 100% 29.0% 33.5% 32.9% 36.0% 41.1% 48.5% 75% 51.4% 15.2% % 20.7% 21.9% 25.9% 50% 24.9% 24.2% 25% 24.5% 55.8% 45.8% 45.2% 38.1% 34.0% 27.3% 24.0% 2000 2004 0% 1950 1960 1970 Sources: 1980 1990 Year Statistical Outline of India 2004-05 Agriculture Industry Services 13 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 14 Automobile production in India has doubled in 4 years, with growth seen across all four major segments.. Automobile Production in India (Nos.) 9,000,000 8,000,000 By numbers, two wheelers are the dominant segment of the Indian Automotive market 350,033 275,040 7,000,000 203,697 723,330 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 162,508 156,706 640,934 203,234 989,560 1,209,654 374,414 356,223 276,719 669,719 212,748 6,526,547 3,000,000 2,000,000 5,076,221 3,758,518 5,622,741 4,271,327 1,000,000 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 Year Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles 15 In many ways, the Indian Automotive Market is unique Harsher operating conditions pose unique challenges for product conceptualization, design and development: Road inadequacy and quality High Traffic density Poor Fuel quality & variety (Gasoline, Diesel, CNG & LPG) Manufacturing complexity higher despite lower volumes compared to global standards Large product portfolios Product obsolescence policies not articulated and enforced, entailing longer product life. Firms able to maintain profitability even at low volumes. 16 Personal Mobility is positively correlated to per capita GDP 17 India is expected to achieve mass motorization status in 2014 Inhabitants/Vehicle Vehicle Density vs. GDP/capita India in 2002 100 Developing Markets Mature Markets Inhabitants/Vehicle ‘02 China in 2002 India in 2014 50 China in 2014 10 Mexico South Korea Brazil Poland Argentina Czech Spain Republic 2 15 100 China 82 Germany Canada Australia Italy 0 India 20 Belgium Austria UK Sweden Japan USA France 25 30 35 40 $1,000 Per Capita Income (US$ 000) Note: The above includes both Passenger Vehicles and Commercial Vehicles Sources: Ward’s Auto Yearbook 2002, EIU, Goldman Sachs BRICs report, DRI 2002, A.T. Kearney analysis 18 Key Challenges facing the industry Increasingly Stringent Emission & Safety Regulations Technological capability Cost Increase in input prices Ferrous & Non-Ferrous Metals Crude oil & derivatives Natural rubber Rising Customer Expectations Product features Quality & reliability Transition of Emission & Safety Regulations for Vehicles India YEAR Emission Regulation Metro Cities Rest of Country 2000 BS 2 (Euro II) BS 1 (Euro I) Underbody Protection Devices Advance Warning Triangles 2005 BS 3 (Euro III) BS 2 (Euro II) Spray Suppression, Noise Norms, Headlamp levellers 2009 BS 4 (Euro IV) BS 3 (Euro III) ABS, Pedestrian Protection (Expected) Safety Regulation Integration with Global Markets Lowering product life cycles Reducing time-to-market for new products Threat of new competition 19 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 20 2-Wheeler Production & Market Sub-Segments (Nos.) CAGR – 15% 8,000,000 Within 2-Wheelers, Motorcycles contribute 80% of the segment size 7,000,000 1,209,654 6,000,000 989,560 986,208 723,330 935,279 5,000,000 669,719 848,434 4,000,000 640,934 3,000,000 937,506 879,759 5,193,752 4,355,168 3,876,175 2,000,000 2,906,323 2,183,785 1,000,000 0 2000-01 2001-02 Motorcycles 2002-03 Year Scooters 2003-04 2004-05 Moped 21 Indian 2-Wheeler Market Competitive Scenario Motorcycle 50% 30% 13% 4% 1% 2% <1% - <1% - 15% 28% - 2% 46% 9% <1% - - - 82% - - - 8% 10% - Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05) India is now the second largest two-wheeler market in the world 22 The Indian 2-Wheeler Industry Indian 2-wheeler Industry Similarity with Global Industry Characteristics • Large variety of products & choice for the customer (9 manufacturers, 70+ Models) • Basic transportation necessity as against fun & fashion orientation of the Western Markets. (Primary transportation vehicle for entire families) Dis-similarity with Global Industry • Product design & execution driven by economy rather performance and power • Presence of strong home-grown players competing against Global majors. 23 Key Market Drivers Key Trends Increasing disposable incomes Eclipse of scooter segment Low operating cost Higher fuel efficiency of Newgeneration motorcycles Greater reliability resulting in low maintenance cost Emergence of new motorcycle subsegments Economy Low interest rates translating to low financing and acquisition costs hence greater affordability. Inadequate urban & rural public transportation infrastructure Executive Performance Shrinking product life-cycles Ease of use in congested city centres 24 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 25 3-Wheeler Production (Nos.) CAGR – 17% 400,000 Predominantly used for commercial purposes, for both Goods Transport (40%) and Passenger Transport (60%). 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 356,223 150,000 374,414 276,719 203,234 212,748 100,000 50,000 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Year 2003-04 2004-05 Three Wheeler 26 Indian 3-Wheeler Market Sub-segments and Competitive Scenario Sub Segments 60% Scooters India 68% 24% 2% 1% 3% 3% 23% 40% 12% 13% 7% 6% Passenger 40% Goods Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05) India is the largest threewheeler market in the world 27 The Indian 3-Wheeler Industry Indian 3-wheeler Industry Similarity with Global Industry Characteristics • None. • Product unique to emerging markets in South / South-East Asia & parts of Africa Dis-similarity with Global Industry • Product design & execution focus on technological simplicity and ease of use. • Lesser competitive intensity as compared to other segments. 28 Key Market Drivers “Last Mile” Transportation needs. High product maneuverability & driveability. Ideal for congested Indian roads and tropical conditions. Inadequate urban & rural public transportation infrastructure Low initial ownership cost Self-employment opportunity for large segment of urban youth Key Trends Goods segment growing at faster clip. Ability of product to meet increasingly stringent emission & safety regulations is doubtful. Market push building up for product upgradation. 29 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 30 Passenger Vehicle Production & Market Sub-Segments (Nos.) CAGR – 17% 1,400,000 Unlike the USA, the Indian Passenger Vehicle market is dominated by Cars (79%) 67,371 1,200,000 181,778 1,000,000 60,673 146,325 800,000 51,441 600,000 0 127,519 63,751 114,479 105,667 960,505 782,562 400,000 513,415 200,000 500,301 557,410 (*) 0 2000-01 2001-02 (*) MPVs were part of Passenger Car segment till 2000-01 Passenger Cars 2002-03 Year Utility Vehicles 2003-04 2004-05 Multi-Purpose Vehicles 31 Indian Passenger Vehicle Market – Competitive Scenario Passenger Cars 52% 17% 19% - 1% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% - <1% <1% Utility Vehicles 2% 18% 1% 42% 21% 1% 10% 1% <1% - 4% - <1% Multi Purpose Vehicles 100% - - - - - - - - - - - <1% Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05) 4th largest Passenger Vehicle Market in Asia 32 The Indian Passenger vehicle Industry Indian Passenger Vehicle Industry Similarity with Global Industry Characteristics • Multiple segmentation across & within major segments • Cars (A, B, C, D & E segments) (Hatchbacks, Sedans, Notchbacks, Station Wagons & Saloons) • Utility Vehicles (Multi- & Sports Utility) • Large variety of products & choice for the customer (13 manufacturers, 50+ Models) • Market dominated by Mini Cars & Hatchbacks (>80%) • High incidence of taxes in Car Prices. (24% Excise Duty, 12.5% VAT, Local Taxes as applicable) Dis-similarity with Global Industry • Customer preference driven by value for money and cost of ownership considerations rather than image, performance and power. (80% of cars sold are priced below USD 12000) • Large proportion of chauffer driven cars. Rear Passenger comfort is a critical influence in purchasing decisions. • Emergence of strong domestic players (TATA, Mahindra). • Strong demand pull for Utility vehicles from Private Taxi segment. 33 Cars per thousand population Passenger Car Penetration is low in India The low penetration presents an opportunity for industry players to offer an affordable fourwheeled alternative to the mass of 2-wheeler customers 34 Key Market Drivers Increasing disposable incomes Rising aspirational levels Low interest rates. Wide variety and easy availability of Financing options. High sensitivity to Fuel prices Lack of urban & rural public transportation infrastructure Key Trends Market evolution from Mini cars to Hatchbacks to Compact Sedans now evident Increasing customer emphasis on aesthetics and comfort. Shrinking product life-cycles Flourishing Service Sector 35 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 36 Commercial Vehicle Production & Market Sub-Segments (Nos.) CAGR – 22% 400,000 Unlike most developed markets, Indian Market has seen dominance by Medium Commercial vehicles 350,000 300,000 138,890 250,000 108,917 200,000 83,195 150,000 68,922 65,756 211,143 100,000 166,123 120,502 50,000 87,784 96,752 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Year Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles 2003-04 2004-05 Light Commercial Vehicles 37 Indian Commercial Vehicle Market – Competitive Scenario Medium & Heavy CV Trucks 64% 24% - 8% - 3% - <1% <1% Buses – L, M & HCV 40% 30% 7% 5% 10% 6% 1% 1% - Light & Small Comm Veh – Trucks 59% <1% 32% 4% 3% 3% <1% - - Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05) TATA Motors dominates over 60% of the Indian Commercial Vehicle Market. It is also the World’s fifth largest Medium & Heavy commercial vehicle manufacturer. 38 The Indian CV Industry Indian CV Industry Characteristics Indian CV Industry Similar with Global CV Industry • Cyclical 250 • • • • Secular long term growth trend Lower Power to Weight Ratios Early stage of road development Less degree of product sophistication. • Strong price entry barriers created by domestic players 150 CAGR: 5% 100 50 0 70 -7 72 1 -7 74 3 -7 76 5 -7 78 7 -7 80 9 -8 82 1 -8 84 3 -8 86 5 -8 88 7 -8 90 9 -9 92 1 -9 94 3 -9 96 5 19 -97 98 -9 00 9 -0 02 1 -03 Dis-similar to Global CV Industry Nos in '000 200 39 Key Market Drivers Growth in Economic Activity Road Network Development Low interest rates. Wide variety and easy availability of Financing options. High sensitivity to Fuel prices 40 Indian CV Industry: Trucks The growth of the Commercial vehicle industry is critically dependent on Infrastructure development & economic activity Impact of Road development Dramatic impact in initial stage of road development 1000 900 Impact of GDP Growth. 1000 Stage Stage Gradual impact 900 Germany Germany 800 800 Truck penetration MHCV / m population 700 Truck penetration MHCV / m population France UK 600 Turkey Spain 500 4 Australia Russia Argentina 400 300 Portugal 3 Brazil 200 China South Africa India (AL) 2 100 1 Indonesia India 700 France UK 600 500 Portugal 400 Argentina Brazil 300 Mexico Romania 200 100 0.5 1 1.5 2 Hungary 3 China South Africa 2 Indonesia India 0 0 4 Spain 1 0 0 Road Density Paved Highway (km) / Area (km2) 5 10 15 20 25 GDP per capita 1000 US$ / head Source: VDA (German Automotive Association), Worldbank, DRI Automotive report 41 Road network development in India Between 2003-04 to 2007-08 each year ~2000 Kms of 4-laned highways will be added Golden Quadrilateral Year-wise completion schedule of NHDP Planned length – 14,000 km 2003 12% NSEW Corridors Feeder Roads Completed 15% 2004 21% 2005-07 52% Source: CrisInfac, NHAI Impact on Domestic CV Industry Faster turnaround Increased freight movement Lower operating cost of vehicles Replacement demand Between 1997 - 2002, Highway length in China increased by around 15,000 km and CV volumes nearly doubled from 1.2 mn to 2.1mn … ….. Indicative of future likely directions in Indian market 42 Key Trends Increasing Power to weight ratio Increasing customer emphasis on aesthetics and comfort. Arrival of Global Players Divergence in Truck and Bus Technology Average Power To Weight Ratios Of Selected Countries Average Power to Weight ratio Migration from erstwhile “Basic MCV Workhorse” to “Hub & Spoke” Model 18 Europe 16 Japan 14 12 Brazil 10 China 8 India 6 4 2 15 25 35 45 GVW (Tonnes) Focus on Fully Built Transport Solutions 43 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 44 Automobile Component Business - India (In USD Million) CAGR – 22% 9,000 The growth rate in Auto Components business has kept pace with OEM growth 8,000 1,400 7,000 1,020 6,000 760 5,000 578 4,000 625 7,300 5,710 3,000 4,670 2,000 3,340 3,892 1,000 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Year Domestic 2003-04 2004-05 Export 45 Key Market Drivers Linked to growth of OEM Industry Highly sensitive to input cost escalation. Key Trends India’s emergence as low cost global sourcing destination. Indian ancillary manufacturers are shifting focus from global after- Competitiveness driven by Manpower – Large pool of qualified engineers & skilled technicians at lower cost Lower investment cost – Through appropriate, low cost automation. market to global OEM supplies. Firms focus on operational excellence to improve quality & reliability of products. (8 Deming Award winners) Increasing relevance of Global Tier 1 suppliers (Bosch, Denso, Visteon, Delphi) 46 Rotating Auto Electricals Tyres & Tubes Heavy Forgings Wheel Rims Small Castings & Forgings Medium Low Product Complexity High The Indian Auto component industry is now transitioning from being a supplier for the global aftermarket to becoming a fullscale global Tier 1 supplier Plastic Components Hand Tools Metal bonded & Moulded Rubber Parts Aftermarket Tier 2-n supplier Tier 1 supplier Customer complexity 47 Indian Component suppliers are adopting different approaches for Global expansion & growth Exports from India Suppliers of: • Castings • Forgings • Machined Items Greenfield Overseas Locations • Rubber Items • Wheel Rims Sundaram Fasteners: China Minda Group: Indonesia Overseas Acquisitions Bharat Forge (CDP-Germany; Federal ForgeUSA) Sundaram Fasteners (Cramlington Precision, UK; Peiner-Germany) 48 • TATA Motors – Organisation Structure • Global Auto Industry – An Analysis • Overview of Indian Economy • Indian Auto Industry Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles • Indian Auto Component Industry • Emerging Opportunities 49 Automobile Exports from India (Nos.) 700,000 International Business growth presents a huge opportunity, as well as a challenge for the Indian Automotive Industry 600,000 500,000 CAGR Overall – 22% Passenger Veh – 57% 2-Wheelers – 35% 29,949 166,413 17,432 129,291 400,000 12,255 66,801 68,144 300,000 72,005 200,000 13,770 27,112 16,263 11,870 43,366 366,724 53,165 265,052 15,462 179,682 100,000 111,138 104,183 0 2000-01 Two Wheelers 2001-02 Three Wheelers 2002-03 Year 2003-04 Passenger Vehicles 2004-05 Commercial Vehicles 50 Opportunities for the industry are emerging both in the areas of Automotive Manufacturing and Engineering Services Manufacturing: Emerging World hub: Small Cars (Suzuki, Hyundai) Castings & Forgings Regional Sourcing base Aggregates for Entire Vehicle Programs (e.g. Transmissions for Toyota IMV) Globalisation opportunities for Indian Manufacturers Increasing exports of “Made In India” vehicles Establishing manufacturing facilities at foreign locations (e.g. TVS Indonesia) Contract Manufacturing (e.g. Sub-150cc Bajaj motor cycles for Kawasaki) Growth through Mergers & Acquisitions (TATA Motors acquisition of Daewoo Commercial Veh, Korea & Hispano, Spain Engineering Services: Indian IT Majors offering on-shore and off-shore engineering services to Global IT players. (e.g. TCS, TATA Technologies, Infosys, Satyam) Global Auto & Auto component majors putting up Development Centres in India, either on their own or in partnership with local players (e.g. General Motors, Daimler Chyrsler, Johnson Controls, Delphi, Bosch) Independent Indian OEMs focusing on upgrading their design & engineering capabilities. (e.g. TATA Motors European Development Centre & Acquisition of INCAT plc, UK) 51 Thank You 52