Download Presentation - The 21st Century Indian City

The ‘political economy’ of India’s
Urban Environment: a few thoughts
Aromar Revi
New Delhi 25th March 2011
The 21st century Indian city:
Developing an agenda for Urbanisation
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Mumbai: minimum city…
Slums in
the City
Mumbai:
a cross-section of Slums
Bharat Nagar and other slums, Raoli Junction
Ekvira Nagar, Salt pan land
Near Airport
Ganesh Murty Nagar
Mumbai’s Slum Services: Water Supply
Bharat Nagar
Dharavi
Shanti Nagar
Chikhalwadi
Ambedkar Nagar
Mumbai’s Slum Services: Solid Waste
Garbage dumping place, Andhra Association
Garbage Bin, Near Khotwadi
Unhygienic surroundings, Anna Nagar
Clean Street, Dadabhai Chawl
Mumbai’s formal & informal Land Price differentials
Average developed land and property value by ward, 2005
120000
Colaba
Average developed land value
(FSI-1) Rs. per.sq.m
Value (Rs.per.sqm)
100000
Average property value Rs.
per.sq.m
80000
Land value of studied slums
Rs. per.sq.m
Bandra
Peddar Road
60000
Ghatkopar
40000
Mulund
20000
T
R
PN
M
KW
H
W
S
G
FS
E
C
A
0
Ward Name
Mumbai’s (imputed) land market value estimated in 2005 at ~ Rs. 560,000
crores. Distortions in this market primary factor in the huge (55%+) city slum
population
Outcome Mumbai: the slum
capital of the world
• 7 million+ people living in ‘slums’
• Dysfunctional land & housing markets
• Declining quality of public services &
security
• Tardy transformation of landuse &
economic functions
• Declining quality of governance
• Ecological footprints expanding across
the subcontinent
• Steady decline in resource-use
efficiency
• Increasing polarisation of wealth
this is clearly unsustainable …
Open Defecation: 0.5 million people per day in Mumbai
RECOMMENDED CONCEPT OPTION: MMR 2031
“City Of Islands”
Comparative long-range Urbanisation trends
(1950-2050)
Urbanisation trends: India, China & the USA (1950-2050)
Urbanisation rate (% of total population)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
World
1960
1970
China
1980
India
1990
Years
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
USA
UN World Urbanisation Prospects, 2007
India: an dramatic opportunity for balanced RUrban development
Global Health Risk forecast by risk factor (2005-2060)
Source: Hughes et. al., 2011, Improving Global Health, Forecasting for the next 50 Years
The Dynamics of Indian Urbanisation
(1951-2031)
1951
Tibet
W. Pakistan
Nepal
E.
India
Population Size (millions)
< 0.1
0.1 – 0.5
0.5 - 1
1-5
>5
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
Pakistan
Population (in millions)
2011
Delhi
(16.9)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Urban Population Growth
Ahmadabad
(5.7)
Kolkata
(15.5)
Mumbai
(20)
1-5
>5
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
Pune
(5.0)
Bangalore
(7.2)
Chennai
(7.5)
Urban Settlements
Population Size
(millions)
< 0.1
0.1 – 0.5
0.5 - 1
Hyderabad
(6.7)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Population (in millions)
2031
Delhi
(24.4)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Urban Population Growth
Kanpur
(5.1)
Ahmadabad
(8.5)
Kolkata
(22.3)
Surat
(6.3)
Mumbai
(28.6)
1-5
>5
Source: Census of India, 1971-2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
Pune
(7.4)
Bangalore
(10.6)
Chennai
(11.1)
Urban Settlements
Population Size
(millions)
< 0.1
0.1 – 0.5
0.5 - 1
Hyderabad
(9.9)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Large Urban Settlement Growth
The Growth of India’s Urban Economy
(1991-2031)
Growth of India's Urban Economy (1991-2031)
Rs. Trillion / lakh crores
300
250
200
150
100
Rs. 1450 lakh crores
50
Rs 735 lakh crores
1991
2001
2011
Time (years)
GDP (current prices)
Urban GDP
2021
2031
Indian Cities & the global
21st century Sustainability transition
The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition
Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds
21st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds
Available
only One
World
Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds
This transition will be played out in Indian & Chinese cities
20th century pre-emption of ‘ecological space’ (1900-2004)
∆ Order of
Magnitude +
Cumulative Carbon emissions over the 20th century potentially pre-empts
ecological & hence human development ‘space’ in the global South
Can Services-sector led growth enable a Sustainability Transition?
Services-sector growth led to very different outcomes in the US, Japan & Germany.
China has chosen a conventional manufacturing-export led strategy unlike India
Ecological Footprint vs. HDI (1975)
‘Sustainable
Development
’
The ‘holy grail’ of national Sustainable Development a HDI of ~ 0.9
& Ecological Footprint of 1 global Ha/per capita
The Sustainability transition will be fought & won in cities
Early 21st century ‘tunnelling through’ will be fought and won in Asian and ‘emerging
economy’ urban areas and around new metabolisms, economies and sufficiencies
Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005 
‘Sustainable
Development’
Can China traverse the environmental Kuznets curve; Germany & USA converge
without serious Human Development decline India ‘tunnel through’;
or will there be serious international ‘resource’ conflict?
A new form of urbanisation?
India’s Settlement structure matched to deliver
Climate adaptation & mitigation co-benefits
Revi, 2010
~ 7,800 urban areas and ~ 0.55 million rural settlements in 20011 – the opportunity
for decentralised production and consumption systems and economic structure
Catalysing five national outcomes by the 2030s
‘Inclusive’ Economic Growth
Reduced Poverty and Inequality
Social Transformation
Environmental Sustainability
Unified & Robust Polity
Who really ‘manages’ Urban India?
Top Management
• MPs & MLAs
• Higher Judiciary
• IAS & IPS
• CXOs (top 500 corporates)
• NGO leadership
Total
% educated & trained in urban practice
Middle Management
• Senior Municipal officials
• Senior Engineers
• Urban Planners
Total
% educated & trained in urban practice
5,300
650
8,200
~ 5,000
~ 1,750
20,900
< 5%
~ 4,000
~ 8,000
~ 2,000
~ 14,000
< 20%