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INTRODUCTION
THIRD LARGEST COUNTRY.
MOST POPULOUS.
BORDERS.
INTRODUCTION
THIRD LARGEST COUNTRY.
MOST POPULOUS.
BORDERS.
3400 OFFSHORE ISLANDS.
AREA – 95,71,300 SQ KM.
ZHONGGUO.
SCOPE
PART I–BACKGROUND INFORMATION.
PART II–ANALYSIS OF IMPORTANT
CURRENT FACETS OF POWER.
PART III-THE PEOPLE’S ARMY.
PART IV-INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS.
PART V–PROGNOSIS.
LAND AND RESOURCES
BROAD DIVISIONS

MOUNTAINS
-43 %.

MOUNTAINOUS PLATEAUX
- 26 %.

BASINS
- 19%.

FLATLANDS
- 12%.
NATURAL RESOURCES
RESERVES OF ENERGY RESOURCES
(IN TONNES)
PETROLEUM
COAL
IRON ORE
-
20 BILLION.
10 TRILLION.
50 BILLION.
POPULATION

HAN CHINESE
-
93%

MINORITES
-
7.0%
(56 ETHNIC GROUPS)

POPULATION
-
1.27 BILLION (2001).

DENSITY
-
133 PER SQ KM.

RURAL/URBAN RATIO
-
66/34.
ECONOMY

FOUR MODERNIZATIONS

AGRICULTURE.

INDUSTRY.

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.

DEFENCE.

DECENTRALIZATION OF PLANNING.

RELIANCE ON MARKET FORCES.

GROWTH RATES


1986-90
-
7%

1992
-
13%

1994
-
12%
FDI
-
$ 30MILLION IN 1994.
ECONOMY

GNP IN 1999
-
$980 BILLION.

PER CAPITA
-
$ 780.

NATIONAL INCOME


AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
-
17.6%.

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
-
49.3%.
GDP

1965-79
-
6.4%.

1980-88
-
10.3%.

1989
-
4%.

1990’s
-
10%.
AGRICULTURE

MOST IMPORTANT SECTOR.

PER CAPITA INCREASES DWINDLING.

1952-79


GRAIN OUTPUT INCREASE
-
103%.

PER CAPITA INCREASE
-
20%.
PER CAPITA ACREAGE

1949
-
0.45 ACRES.

2001 -
0.26 ACRES.
AGRICULTURE

MIXED FARMING.

MECHANIZATION.

FLOOD CONTROL AND IRRIGATION PROJECTS.

2000 STATE FARMS.

FISHERIES

CATCH IN 1997
-
36.3 MILLION.
TONNES.

MARINE PRODUCTS
-
7 MILLION.
TONNES.
ANNUALLY.
MINING

COAL - ANNUAL OUTPUT – 1.01 BILLION TONNES.

PETROLEUM

1994

SELF SUFFICIENT FROM 1963.

EXPORTER FROM 1973.

LARGEST RESERVES

NET IMPORTER SINCE 1993.
- 146 MILLION
TONNES.
- 10 BILLION
BARRELS TARIM BASIN.

IRON ORE PRODUCTION IN 1999
- 63 MILLION
TONNES.

GRAPHITE PRODUCTION IN 1994
- 3,20,000
TONNES.
MANUFACTURING

INDUSTRY’s SHARE OF GDP

1965
-
39%.

1999
-
49%.

300,000 INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES BY MID-1990’s.

PRODUCTION OF IRON AND STEEL (1995)

PIG IRON
-
105 MILLION TONNES.

CRUDE STEEL
-
95.4 MILION TONNES.
-
28 MILLION TONNES.
-
5 MILLION TONNES.

HEAVY INDUSTRIES.

FERTILIZERS
PRODUCTION IN 1998

PRODUCTION OF
COTTON YARN IN 1995
MANUFACTURING



OTHER PRODUCTS

CEMENT

PAPER & PAPER
-
476 MILLION TONNES.
BOARDS
-
28.1 MILLION TONNES.

BICYCLES
-
44.7 MILLION UNITS.

MOTOR
VEHICLES
-
1.45 MILLION UNITS.

TV’s
-
34.9 MILLION UNITS.
INDUSTRIAL UNITS BY 1994

PRIVATELY OWNED
-
8 MILLION.

COLLECTIVES
-
1.8 MILLION.
100,000 STATE OWNED FIRMS.
ENERGY

ELECTRICITY OUTPUT IN 1999
1.2 BILLION kWh.

HYDROELECTRIC POWER – 18%.

NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANT AT
SHANGHAI.
-
COMMERCE AND TRADE




MARKET FORCES DOMINATE.
1999

EXPORTS $ 195 BILLION.

IMPORTS $ 166 BILLION.
FDI BY 1994
$ 39 BILLION.
EXPORT COMMODITIES

CRUDE & REFIND PETROLEUM.

COTTON FABRIC.

SILK.

RICE.

CLOTHING.

PORK.

FROZEN SHRIMPS.

TEA.
IMPORT COMMODITIES

MACHINERY.

STEEL PRODUCTS.

OTHER METALS.

CARS.

SYNTHETICS.

AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS.

RUBBER.

WHEAT.

SHIPS.
TRADING PARTNERS

JAPAN.

HONG KONG.

USA.

GERMANY.

TAIWAN.

SINGAPORE.
TRANSPORT





RAILWAYS

LENGTH
57,566KM.

DIESEL AND STEAM TRACTION.

LANZHOU - LHASA LINE UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

TRANS – ASIA RAILWAY PROJECT

LENGTH
5513KM.

COST
$ 2.5 BILLION.

LIKELY COMPLETION 2006.

WILL CONNECT SIX ASEAN COUNTRIES.
ROADS

LENGTH
1.5 MILLION KMS.

VEHICLE PRODUCTION
1.5 MILLION ANNUALLY.
PLANS TO RAISE TO 3
MILLION.

3.5 MILLION CARS IN 1995 AND 5.6 MILLION LARGER VEHICLES.

1 VEHICLE PER 131 PEOPLE.
INLAND WATERWAY
110,000KMS LONG.
MERCHANT FLEET
1800.
AIR LINKS TO 90 CITIES.
COMMUNICATIONS

RADIO -

TV


417 MILLION BY 1997.
BETWEEN 1997 & 1981 -
INCREASE FROM 6,30,000 TO
7 MILLION.

IN 1997
-
400 MILLION TV’s WERE IN
USE.

AVERAGE
-
2 SETS FOR EVERY THREE
HOUSE HOLDS.

SATELITE RECEIVERS.
NEWSPAPERS

200 DAILIES.

CIRCULATION-

PEOPLE’s DAILY.
50 MILLION.

ACTIVE PUBLISHING INDUSTRY.

16.9 MILLION INTERNET USERS.

GOVERNMENT CONTROLS P & T SERVICES.
DEFENCE

SUPREME COMMAND WITH CMC.

WORLD’s LARGEST

BREAKDOWN OF PLA

–
2.5 MILLION (ABOUT 1.3 MILLION
CONSCRIPTS).

NAVY
-
2,20,000 (INCLUDING 27,000 IN
NAVAL AIRFORCE AND 5000
MARINES).


AIR FORCE
ARMY
-
4,20,000.
REMAINDER.
SUPPORTED BY MILITIA
(12 MILLION) & SECURITY FORCE
(8,00,000).
MAJOR EQUIPMENT

NAVY
-
1700 VESSELS, INCLUDING 60
SUBMARINES.

AIR FORCE
-
3740 COMBAT AIRCRAFT.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

NO BUSINESS VENTURES NOW.
NATIONAL SECURITY OBJECTIVES
SOVEREIGNTY :
 RETURN OF TERRITORIES.
 BORDER DISPUTES.
 CONTROL OVER RESTIVE INDIGENOUS
POPULATIONS.
 INTERNATIONAL PRESSURES.
MODERNITY :
 INCREASE ECONOMIC STRENGTH.
 ENHANCE TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES.
 RAISE STANDAR OF LIVING.
STABILITY :
 TACKLING SOCIAL DISLOCATIONS.
 REGIME CONTINUITY.
 PEACEFUL EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT.
EXTERNAL FACETS
MAJOR POWER.
ULTIMATE GOAL.
MAIN EXTERNAL PROBLEM – TAIWAN.
STRATEGIC AND MISSILE FORCE.
SECURITY AGREEMENTS WITH RUSSIA.
SINO – US RELATIONS :
 CONDITIONAL ENGAGEMENT.
 BALANCE OF THREAT.
 DEFENCE OF TAIWAN.
 COUNTER TERRORISM.
 WEAPONS PROLIFERATION.
CHINA’S VIEW OF USA.
SINO – INDIAN RELATIONS.
DISPUTE – SOUTH CHINA SEA.
INTERNAL ISSUES

TIBETAN PROBLEM LINGERS.

FALUN GONG MOVEMENT.

SEPARATISM IN XINJIANG.

SARS.
ECONOMIC ISSUES

OPEN MARKET ECONOMY.

GROWTH IN 2001 – 7.3%.

TRANSFORMING INTO DOMINANT ECONOMIC FORCE.

CHALLENGING USA IN FUTURE.

FUND SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENT.

CHALLENGES

BUDGET DEFICITS.

RESTRUCTURING STATE-OWNED INDUSTRIES.

SOCIAL COSTS.

SPREADING WEALTH.
POLITICAL ASPECTS

10TH PARTY CONGRESS.

NEW LEADERSHIP

HU JINTAO.

WEN JIABAO.


GEN CAO GANGCHUAN.
PARAMOUNT POLITICAL LEADERJIANG ZEMIN.
ANALYSIS OF NEW
LEADERSHIP

MORE OPEN TO CHANGES.

PRESS FREEDOM.

VALUE IN DE`TENTE.

NO LOOSENING OF
CONTROL ON TIBET &
XINJIANG.
ROLE OF MILITARY

PLA LINKS WITH CCP.

AUTONOMY AND FUNDING.

MILITARY SENTIMENT.

DE-POLITICIZATION OF PLA.
NEW LEADERSHIP

POSITIVE CHANGES EXPECTED.

DIFFUSING ‘CHINA THREAT’
THEORY.

TAIWAN ISSUE.

PEACE AND STABILITY IN ASIAPACIFIC.

MULTI-POLAR WORLD ORDER.
PART - III : THE
PEOPLE’S LIBERATION
ARMY
NATIONAL MILITARY
OBJECTIVES
PROTECT
THE
PARTY
SAFEGUARD STABILITY.
DEFEND
SOVEREIGNTY
DEFEAT AGGRESSION.
MODERNIZE THE MILITARY
BUILD THE NATION.
AND
AND
AND
CHINA’S SECURITY
ENVORONMENT
INTERNAL UNREST.
OPTIONS FOR TAIWAN.
DEFENCE OF CENTRE OF GRAVITY – COAST.
BAILATERAL PROBLEMS ON LAND BORDER.
RUSSIA – LONG – TERM CONCERN.
USA – ENDURING CONCERN.
JAPAN VIEWED WITH SUPICION.
NEED TO ENHANCE MARITIME AND
AEROSPACE CAPABILITIES.
CREDIBLE NUCLEAR DETERRENT.
MODERNIZATION OF THE
PEOPLE’S LIBERATION
ARMY (PLA)
MODERNIZATION OF PLA

INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING.

ENHANCING CAPABILITIES OF NAVY
AND AIR FORCE.

SECOND ARTILLERY.

RAPID RESPONSE FORCE.

MISSILES.

ENHANCING C3ISR.

INFORMATION WARFARE.
DEFENCE BUDGET

$ 20 BILLION IN 2002.

INCREASE - 17.6%.

ACTUAL BUDGET - NEARLY
$ 65 BILLION.
SUPPLIES FROM RUSSIA

70% OF FOREIGN ARMS SALES TO
CHINA.

72 SU-27 AND 10 IL-76 AIRCRAFT.

100 S-30 MISSILES.

4 KILO CLASS SUBMARINES.

2 SOVERMENNY CLASS DESTROYERS.

300 SU-27s BY END 2003.

CO-PRODUCTION OF 200 SU-27s BY 2012.

AERIAL RE-FUELLING TANKERS.
GROUND TROOPS

CONVERSION TO NEW EQUIPMENT.

POCKETS OF EXCELLENCE.
PLA NAVY

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT.

AIRCRAFT CARRIER?
PLA AIR FORCE

SUKHOI FIGHTERS.

AEW AIRCRAFT.

HEAVY TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT.

AERIAL REFUELLING.

R&D IN NEW WEAPONS AND
EQUIPMENT.
SECOND ARTILLERY

PHASING OUT FIXED MISSILES.

INCREASED SURVIVABILITY.

RAPID RESPONSE.
TEA
PART – IV : INDIA –
CHINA RELATIONS
OFFICIAL POLICY OF INDIA
SEEKS FRIENDLY, COOPERATIVE, GOOD –
NEIGHBOURLY AND MUTUALLAY BENEFICIAL
RELATIONS.
LONG – TERM STABLE RELATIONSHIP.
COMMITTED TO PROCESS OF DIALOGUE.
AREAS OF BILAERAL RELATIONS.
 TRADE.
 CULTURAL EXCHANGES.
 MILITARY EXCHANGES.
 SECURITY AND FOREIGN OFFICE
DIALOGUE.
 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
COOPERATION.
ECONOMIC AND
COMMERCIAL FIELDS
RESUMPTION OF TRADE – 1978.
MOST FAVOURED NATION
AGREEMENT – 1984.
JEG ESTABLISHED IN – 1988 .
BILATERAL TRADE HAS GROWN
RAPIDLY.
PROGRESS AND
SETBACKS
JOIN WORKING GROUP (JWG)
ESTABLISHED.
BILATERAL TRADE HAS GROWN.
INDIA – US RELATIONS VIEWED WITH
CONCERN BY CHINA.
LITTLE PROGRESS ON BORDER ISSUE.
TIBET – A THORNY PROBLEM.
INDIA VIEWS CHINA’S RELATIONS WITH
PAKISTAN WITH CONRERN.
POLICY CHANGES BY
CHINA
SHIFTING STANCE ON KASHMIR.
ADVICE TO PAKISTAN.
STANCE DURING KARGIL WAR.
NEUTRAL ROLE IN 2002.
BILATERAL TALKS ON BORDER ISSUE.
REDUCED MILITARY AID TO PAKISTAN.
REDUCTION OF RHETORIC.
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
COOPERATION.
INDIA’S RESPONSE
INITIAL SUSPICION BECAUSE OF :
 CHINESE ASSISTANCE TO PAKISTAN.
 WEAPONS TO BANGLADESH.
 MAKING INROADS INTO MYANMAR.
 CONTINUED OCCUPATION OF INDIAN
TERRITORY.
 DANGER OF CHINA’S MEDDLING IN N E
STATES.
MODIFICATION TO FOREIGN POLICY.
SETBACK AFTER NUCLEAR TESTS.
BORDER ISSUE HAS BEEN KEPT ASIDE.
CAUTIOUS PARTNERSHIP BASED ON
STABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH.
STRATEGIC REASONS
INDIA HOPES TO WEAKEN SINO-PAK
RELATIONS.
CHINA’S SUSPICIONS OF PAK
COMPLICITY IN XINJIANG.
SIMILAR VIEW ON TERRORISM.
STABLE RELATIONS WITH INDIA
SECURE CHINA’S SOUTH WESTERN
FLANK.
FOR INDIA BETTER RELATIONS WITH
CHINA CAN REDUCE DEFENCE
BURDEN.
HEDGING BY CHINA
UNWILLING TO BREAK ALLIANCE WITH
PAKISTAN.
RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN –
COUNTERWEIGHTS TO USA.
HEDGE AGAINST RELATIONS WITH INDIA
TURNING SOUR.
RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTERIES
OF SOUTH ASIA.
CAUTIOUS APPROACH FOR THE
PRESENT.
AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT
REGULAR DIALOGUE INCLUDING ON
STRATEGIC ISSUES.
POLITICAL WILL TO SOLVE BORDER
DISPUTE.
MANAGEMENT OF INDIA – CHINA –
PAKISTAN TRIANGLE.
ACCOMODATION AND DEMONSTRANTION
OF GOODWILL.
SECURITY COUNCIL SEAT FOR INDIA.
GREATER COOPERATION IN OTHER
SPHERES.
ECONOMIC ISSUES








CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS.
SUSTAINED GROWTH.
WILL ENHANCE MILITARY POWER.
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS

FOOD.

ENERGY.
REGIONAL DISPARITY.
GLOBAL MANUFACTURING AND PROCESSING
BASE.
TRADE WITH INDIA.
ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION HAS PAID RICH
DIVIDENDS.
SECURITY ISSUES

CONCERNS – JAPAN & USA.

INTEGRATIVE STRATEGY.

FORCE MODERNIZATION.

POTENTIAL CONFLICT WITH TAIWAN.

RELIANCE ON MISSILES.

NEED TO OVERCOME OBSTACLES.
INTERNAL ISSUES
 FRACTURED SOCIETY.
 RURAL – URBAN DIVIDE.
 ONE – CHILD POLICY.
 ETHNIC UNREST.







INDIA – CHINA RELATIONS
STABLE & CO-OPERATIVE RELATIONS
DESIREABLE.
AREAS OF CONCERN REMAIN.
CHINA’S VIEW OF INDA.
RISING POWER.
INTERNAL PROBLEMS.
ONLY REGIONAL STATUS.
POTENTIONAL IT GIANT.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION

IMPRESSIVE GROWTH BUT
UNEVEN.

CREDIBILITY OF CHINESE
STATISTICS.

HIGH SAVING RATE.

DOMESTIC ECONOMY
WEAK.

UNEMPLOYMENT.

CORRUPTION.

LEGAL SYSTEM.
CONCLUSION

PROJECTION AS
“RESPONSIBLE WORLD
POWER”.

CO-OPERATION, PEACE AND
STABILITY.

MILITARY MODERNIZATION.

INCREASED ASSERTIVENESS
IN FUTURE.

COUNTRY IN TRANSITION.
TRANSITION
CONCLUSION

FOCUS ON TAIWAN AND
ASIA-PACIFIC.

FACING NO IMMEDIATE
MILITARY THREAT.

MODERNIZATION OF PLA
& IMPROVING ECONOMY
WILL CONTINUE.