Download Management Actions on VariousTime Scales

Population/Economic Growth and
the Marine Environment
Daniel Huppert
School of Marine Affairs
University of Washington
Pop = 2 bil. in 1929 & = 6 bil. in 2000
World Population Estimates & Projections
UN population Division, "The World at Six Billion"
Billions of People
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300
Year
Components of Pop Change
• Birth rate (# born per year)
• Mortality rate (M)
- Percentage of population that dies/year
- Mortality rate & life expectancy are
inversely related
• Fertility- No. of live births per woman of
child bearing age (over life span)
• data from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/ 2007 estimates
Another 2 billion People by 2050
Cartogram - Nat’l Population
Relationships between Population
and Economic Development
• Econ Develop typically entails improved
health services, reduced mortality rates,
and increased life expectancy
• But more developed nations usually have
lower population growth rates.
• The relationship is complex
GDP versus Fertility, 221 nations
$80,000
GDP per capita
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Total Fertility
6
7
8
Life Expectancy vs GDP per Capita
$80,000
GDP per Capita
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Life Expectancy at Birth
80
90
Life Expectancy at Birth
(years)
Life expectancy vs. Fertility
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Total Fertility
6
7
8
Some Conclusions re Pop Growth
• Causality may be -- economic growth spurs
reductions in mortality and fertility and,
ultimately, in population growth.
• But, of course, economic growth means
higher production & income per capita,
which involves increased land conversion,
fuel consumption, etc.
• … and that may cause pollution, etc.
Europe - Developed
Landscape
• Air and water
pollution are
extensive
• Over-fishing and
coastal pollution
degrade marine
ecosystems
Coastal Population Pressure in the US
Coastal counties contain
53% of the nation’s population,
yet, excluding Alaska, account
for only 17% of U.S. land area.
Pew Oceans Commission
Growth effects on the
Coasts
• Population
• Land consumption due to
suburban development
patterns
• Increased auto use
Impervious surface > 10%
degrades rivers &
estuaries
• Example Impervious
Surface area in
Puget Sound
Region
(From PSAT website)
• This will likely
expand with
economic growth &
population
Human Population Growth
WA State
Washington State Population
7000
6000
Pop in 1,000s
• Population
roughly
doubled
since 1970
• State
Forecast =
8+ million by
2030
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
WA Annual Pop Growth
from WA OFM
• Cyclical
pattern tracks
economic
growth
• Most Pop.
Growth due to
Migration
Population & Economic Growth
Generally Means:
(1) More homes, roads, schools, shopping malls
(2) Increased land conversion, water diversion,
air pollution, run-off of oil and chemicals
(3) More shoreline bulkheads, fishing pressure,
overwater structures, marinas, saltwater
recreation, maritime traffic
Some Consequences
•
•
•
•
•
•
Nutrient and toxic inputs to nearshore water
Diminished Water Quality
Harmful Algae Blooms (HABs)
Shoreline Armoring
Altered river hydrology and run-off patterns
Nearshore Habitat Loss
A More Rural Area
Skagit Delta Whidbey basin
Fir Island Aerial View
from Grossman
WDNR estimates 1/3 of WA
shorelines have been modified and
70% of tidal lands degraded
Systems View of Coastal Socio-Ecological System*
Socioeconomic System
Human Effects
Estuarine Ecosystem
•
• Land Cover/Use
• Species Harvests
Conditions
• Geomorphology
• Salinity Patterns
Processes
Public Policy
Water Pollution & Sediments
• Property
Rules
• Incentive Systems
• Decision Mechanisms
• Structural Changes (dikes)
• Primary
Production
Processes
Conditions
• Nutrient Flow
• Resource Extraction
• Demographics
• Trophic
Dynamics
• Manufacturing &
Construction
• Incomes
• Habitat Quality
• Upwelling &
Tides
• Land Use
• Species
Abundance
• Climate change
Economic Outputs
• Shoreline Bldg.
• Sedimentation
• Seafood
• Population Migration
and Aging
• Water quality
• Wetlands extent
and Structure
•Species Diversity
• Species Invasion
• Transportation
• Housing/Amenities
• Recreation
• Technical Change
• Shifting Values
*Modified from PNCERS socio-economic research (Huppert et al. 2003)
• Educational Level
•Housing & Facilities
• Non-Market Assets
• Institutions and
Organizations
• Dominant Attitudes
Beliefs and Values