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Introduction to Climate Change SUS 103 Spring Term 2016 Dr. Jillian Gregg 4 credits Office: ALS 3057, [email protected] Office hours T/R, 1:20 – 2:20 or email to set up a separate meeting time One 3 hour lab each week, 2 lectures T/R 12:00 – 1:20 Textbooks The textbooks for the class will be “Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis: Volume 1 The Physical Climate” by G. Thomas Farmer and John Cook. Springer ISBN-13: 9789400757561. Additional reading material will come from popular magazines and the primary literature and will be posted on Canvas. Lab activities, PowerPoint lecture slides, required weekly quizzes, and extra readings (with optional extra credit writing assignments) will be posted on Canvas each week. General Description This course is an introduction to the principles of climate change science with an emphasis on the empirical evidence for human-caused climate change. Students will learn critical thinking skills to assess such questions as: how do we apply physical science principles to understand the drivers of global warming? How do we predict trends in climate change? How do we calculate and understand uncertainty in these predictions? What is valid science in the global warming debate? This course satisfies the Physical Science requirement of the Baccalaureate Core. The course includes a weekly laboratory where students will attain hands-on experience with earth system climate change principles. Laboratory data exercises will explore the nature, value, and limitations of scientific methods and will focus on science as a way of knowing and the meaning of uncertainty. Field trips will provide hands on experience seeing actual climate change research in action. For example, we will visit a field-based climate change experiment at the EPA where students will evaluate experimental design and replication, and will manipulate real-time data to develop hypotheses that can be tested through analysis and graphic visualization of the data. Students will also access national databases such as NOAA's Sea Ice Melt and Temperature databases to evaluate uncertainty and error, develop questions and hypotheses that can be answered through analysis and synthesis of the data, and work in small groups to test hypotheses and develop conclusions. The course will start by providing an overview of the physical principles of climate change including the greenhouse effect and causes of CO2 rise. We will focus on questions such as, how do we know if CO2 rise is linked to temperature change? Is the earth experiencing temperature 1 change outside normal variability, and how do we know if this is caused by human activities? We will then discuss potential effects on terrestrial and ocean systems from elevated CO2 and explore such questions as: What are the cascading effects of elevated CO2? Do we need to worry about glacier and sea ice melt? Sea level rise? Ocean warming? Ocean acidification? Students will be exposed to ongoing research efforts throughout the US, Oregon and the world. We discuss the Nobel Peace Prize winning effort of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the impacts this effort has made on coming to scientific agreement. Students will learn the details of how Vostok Ice Core and tree-ring data are obtained and how these data are useful. We will examine the global carbon budget and calculate personal and country-wide carbon footprints. We will consider what level of scientific evidence we need before we act to limit climate change, and how this response is tempered by social and economic concerns. Examples of environmental problems that humans have addressed and mitigated over the last few decades, including the stratospheric ozone hole, acid rain, and tropospheric ozone, will be presented as examples for how addressing environmental problems is NOT BEYOND OUR CAPACITY. An overview of the history of the global warming debate, including mitigation strategies (alternative energy, carbon trading and beyond) and policies (Kyoto and beyond), will be presented. This class will provide students from all disciplines the baseline information needed to formulate and articulate arguments that form the basis for how they will discuss, interact, and vote on this issue as it prevails throughout their business, economic, and personal decisions. Grading The class is graded out of 100 points, although if you do all the extra credit activities, you can receive up to 120 points. The idea behind this is that students learn material in different ways, and thus will be allowed to show mastery of the subject in different ways. If you don’t like tests, but prefer writing essays (attention English majors!), then you can earn as many points writing extra credit essays as you can by taking an exam. If you are a student who simply wants to learn the material, take the tests and quizzes, and not do a lot of writing and research, then you don’t have to do the extra credit writing. This works especially if you attend lecture regularly – as we have group activities in lecture times that are worth a lot of points. Lab is not optional, and for every lab missed, 2 points are subtracted from your total class grade (in addition to not getting the 4 points for the lab report added to your total score). Don’t miss lab! If you miss a lab due to illness, we will try to accommodate you in a different lab, but there is no guarantee. Total points possible from: Weekly Canvas quizzes (8 quizzes, 3 points each) In class group activities (9 activities, 1 point each) Midterm Final Laboratory writing and participation (9 labs, 3 points each) Extra credit research essays (5 activities, 4 points each) 24 9 20 20 27 20 Grades: 95+ = A, 90+ = A-, 87+ = B+, 82+ = B, 80+ = B-, 77+ = C+, 72+ = C, 70+ = C-, 65+ =D, <65 = F 2 Prerequisites None, class is open to all OSU students. Category Learning Outcomes of the Baccalaureate Core in Biological and Physical Sciences Students taking this course will: Recognize and apply concepts and theories of basic physical science. o Concepts and theories of basic physical science will be the foundation of lectures 1 – 14, with application of these physical principles to the climate system integral to every lecture. o Students’ ability to apply these concepts to new situations will be assessed in the weekly quizzes, midterm, final, and labs 1, 2, 3 and 7. Apply scientific methodology and demonstrate the ability to draw conclusions based on observation, analysis, and synthesis. o The scientific methodology including: observations to generate questions, consulting literature, developing hypothesis and making a testable prediction, data collection and analysis, and drawing conclusions based on analysis of initial hypotheses, will be outlined in lecture 1 and inherent in all lectures where we draw conclusions based on climate change data. Students will practice this methodology in labs 1, 2, 3 and 5 with lab 5 archived for long term assessment. Demonstrate connections with other subject areas. o Because climate change science is inherently interdisciplinary, connections among atmospheric science, hydrology and biology will be inherent in most lectures. Interactions with biology will be the focus in lectures 5, 11, 12 and 13; interactions with engineering and alternative energy systems the focus in lectures 18 and 19; and interactions with Policy the focus in Lectures 17 and 18. Students will demonstrate their ability to form these connections in labs 5, 6, 8 and 9. Learning outcomes specific to this class Upon completion of this course students should have the ability to: Effectively debate and evaluate scientific arguments regarding climate change; o Practiced in labs 7 and 8, o Assessed in the midterm and final, and lab 8 which will be archived for longterm programmatic assessment. Interpret data critically, and understand uncertainty in scientific data and model predictions for global climate change; o Uncertainty will be discussed in lecture 1, explored extensively in lecture 14 with global models, and practiced and assessed in labs 5 and 6. Calculate carbon footprints of human activities; o Carbon footprints will be calculated in lab 4. Recognize the range of ecosystem services that are impacted by climate change; o This will be discussed in lectures 13, 18 and 19, Understand the importance for more than just scientists to be involved in this debate. 3 o This will be the focus of lecture 18 by an invited speaker who is an applied economist. It will also be a focus of labs 7, 8, and 9. Laboratory and in-class small-group discussion outcomes: Because scientific reasoning and science literacy are key components of this class, lecture, laboratory, and small-group discussions will emphasize 3 components of literacy: 1. climate literacy (scientific and social facets of climate change) 2. science literacy (how science is performed, the nature of experiments and evidence, and how conclusions are reported) 3. information literacy (how to find and critically evaluate information) Accommodations for Students with Disabilities: Accommodations for students with disabilities are collaborative efforts between students, faculty and Disability Access Services (DAS). Students with accommodations approved through DAS are responsible for contacting the faculty member in charge of the course prior to or during the first week of the term to discuss accommodations. Students that think they are eligible for accommodations but who have not yet obtained approval through DAS should contact DAS immediately at (541) 737-4098 (http://ds.oregonstate.edu/). Statement of Expectations for Student Conduct: The primary purpose of the Student Conduct Code is to establish community standards and procedures necessary to maintain and protect an environment conducive to learning, in keeping with the educational objectives of Oregon State University. This code is based on the assumption that all persons must treat one another with dignity and respect in order for scholarship to thrive. See Student Conduct and Community Standards: http://studentlife.oregonstate.edu/studentconduct/offenses-0. 4 OUTLINE Week Lecture L1. Introduction to Earth's climate 1 system and SUS 103 2 3 Readings/Activities Ch 1, 2 Ch 3 L2. Earth's energy budget: radiation and heat and the climate system. Global radiation budget, ozone shield, greenhouse effect L3. Introduction to Earth's Ch 8, 11 atmosphere: Global atmospheric circulation, wind, pressure systems L4. Earth's surface temperature and climate change trends Ch 5, 6; IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (on Canvas) L5. Greenhouse gasses and the carbon cycle Ch 9 L6. Water in the climate system: Readings posted on properties of water, global water Canvas cycle, water in the atmosphere, clouds 4 5 L7. The world ocean: oceanatmospheric relationships including ENSO, El Nino, La Nina Ch 12 L8. Ocean heat content and rising sea levels: Ocean warming and oceans as a carbon sink Ch 13 L9. Glaciers and the latest Ice Age Ch 14 L10. Ancient climates and proxies: Proxies, historical records and direct lines of evidence Ch 19 5 Lab No lab this week Lab 1. CO2 and water vapor in a Jar. Warming of air in the presence of greenhouse gases. Hypothesis development/testing, data collection/ analyses, write-up. Lab 2. Virtual Field trip to Study Ice Cores and Tree Rings. Analyze and evaluate ice core CO2 data and tree-ring data. Hypothesis development/testing, data collection/ analyses, write-up. Lab 3. Ice in a Jar. Sea level rise and ocean warming. Plot and analyze sea ice melt data from NOAA. Ocean pH in a Jar. Demonstration of decalcification of marine organisms. Lab 4: Develop and assess Personal C footprint. Compare in different countries/ continents. Week MIDTERM 6 7 8 9 10 OUTLINE (CONTINUED) Lecture Readings/Activities L11. Natural and anthropogentic drivers: Milankovich cycles, sun spots, greenhouse gasses L12. How do we know the Earth is warming? Climate change trends; trends in ET, frequency of storms, melting glaciers, melting permafrost and methane Readings posted on Canvas Ch 5 L13. Feedbacks to and from the biotic Ch 15 and readings world: permafrost, methane, posted on Canvas terrestrial vegetation, soils L14. Global models: types, limits and Ch 18 and 22 uncertainty, projections and future climate 2 Lab 6: OSU Solar Array field trip: calculation of energy gained from solar array, what array would be needed to power OSU. Lab 7. Climate Change Myths. Small group exploration and Ch 23, 24, analysis of climate skepticalscience.com, change myths from and climate science skepticalscience.com debate video1 (on Canvas) Watch Video on Lab 8: Global resolution of the Warming Literacy stratospheric O3 hole2 and Carbon Mitigation Town Hall Summit L15. Understanding climate change denial: Using scientific reasoning, science knowledge, and identification of logical fallacies to address climate myths L16. NOT BEYOND OUR CAPACITY Examples of environmental catastrophes that humans have addressed – Stratospheric ozone hole, acid rain, air pollution, others Readings posted on Canvas L17. Mitigation - Strategies – what to do? Carbon sequestration, C trading and beyond L18. Policy Responses: Kyoto, current, and beyond. Guest Lecture Susan Capalbo, Applied Economics Readings posted on Canvas L19. Our energy future: Alternative energy and the movie "Switch" 1 Lab Lab 5: Field Trip to EPA Global Climate Change Terracosm Research Facility Lab 9: Policy Options. Read and learn about different policy options and present the different options in a ‘Public Square’ debate at the end of lab. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=potLQR7-_Tg (1 hour, week 8 activity) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiiHFoTLBn8 (1 hour, week 9 activity) 6 Overview of Laboratory Exercises Lab 1. CO2 and Water Vapor in a Jar Students will learn basic climate change principles from a series of hands-on exercises demonstrating the impacts of altered CO2 on air temperature in paired jar experiments. The basic climate concept for the first of these labs is the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas that thus warms the planet. Introductory material will provide an overview of atmospheric gases, the greenhouse effect, and historic trends in atmospheric CO2 and temperature rise. Students will be asked to develop a hypothesis as to which jar would warm faster; one with ambient atmosphere or one that has a higher concentration of greenhouse gases. Student pairs will then fill one of their jars with fresh air from outside and seal it rapidly, then breathe heavily into the other jar and seal it rapidly. They will then shine a heat lamp on both jars and record the changes in air temperature and the rate of ice melting inside each jar over the next 30 minutes (measured by weighing the ice before and after). Students will then graph their data and assess whether it supports or refutes their original hypothesis. This hypothesis-based inquiry provides an opportunity for students to connect the increased CO2 concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere to changes in temperature. Variations of this experiment will be performed with some groups adding CO2 via moistened Alka-Seltzer tablets using different numbers to attain medium or high CO2 levels. These comparisons will not have the elevated water vapor from the simpler breath comparisons. CO2 concentrations in these jars will be calculated and compared with samples injected into an infrared gas analyzer (IRGA) to assess the CO2 and water vapor concentrations in each jar. Data from each student pair will be made available to all students to assess and include in their lab reports. Learning from this investigation will be facilitated by using resources such as Myth busters, which has an on-line video that shows a well-controlled demonstration of the experiment. Lab 2. Virtual Field Trip to Study Ice Cores and Tree-Rings Video of ice core collection and curation. Students will plot NOAA data on past CO2 concentrations that have been obtained by these cores. An overview of how tree-ring data are collected; tree cross sections and cores in lab will be analyzed under a microscope to see past high and low growth years. Students will plot data collected from these tree cores and compare them to climate alterations over the past century. They will then assess archived data from much older trees to see how past climates are inferred from ancient tree-rings. This lab will be used to practice hypothesis development, hypothesis testing, and the drawing of conclusions. Lab 3. Ocean warming, sea level rise, and ocean acidification 1) ‘Earth-system-in-a-Jar’ experiments will be performed to determine: the effect of temperature on water volume, the effect of melting land ice versus sea ice on sea level rise, and the effect of lost sea ice albedo on ocean warming. These experiments will be based on modules developed and tested by NASA: http://pmm.nasa.gov/education/sites/default/files/lesson_plan_files/climate%20change%20inquir y/Climate%20Change%20Inquiry%20TG.pdf While the experiments are running students will watch videos of melting glaciers at: http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/global-ice-viewer/#/ 7 2) Students will also perform experiments to assess the effect of elevated CO2 on land versus sea water pH and the effect of increased ocean acidity on calcifying organisms. This part of the lab will be based on modules developed and tested by the European Project on Ocean Acidification http://www.carboeurope.org/education/CS_Materials/BufferingCapacity.pdf and http://www.carboeurope.org/education/CS_Materials/seawater_pH.pdf, also see http://www.epoca-project.eu/index.php/what-do-we-do/education/educational-activities/handsonexperiments.html. Lab 4. Carbon Footprints and Information Literacy (1) Students will develop and assess their personal C footprints, examine the C footprint of individuals in different countries, and share their results in small groups. We will discuss the assumptions behind the many different C footprint calculators that are available. Footprint analyses will follow the format presented on The Nature Conservancy website: http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalculator/. These footprints will also be compared with the global C budget to assess which changes could have the greatest impact. (2) Evaluating web site objectivity. For the second part of this lab students will be led through assessing the objectivity of various web sites with contrasting views on the climate change debate and learn how to evaluate and cite various information sources. Example contrasting web sites for comparison include: http://www.globalclimatescam.com/ http://www.friendsofscience.org/ http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/ http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ This exercise will lay the foundation for research needed in preparation for Lab 7 on climate change myths, and Lab 8 on carbon mitigation literacy town hall meeting (see below). Students will learn to use the CRAAP test (Currency, Relevance, Authority, Accuracy, and Purpose) developed by the librarians at Chico State University: http://www.csuchico.edu/lins/handouts/eval_websites.pdf They will also learn to use the OSU Library DIY tool: http://diy.library.oregonstate.edu/ for help with citing sources including websites, books, and articles. Lab 5. Field Trip: EPA Global Climate Change Terracosm Facility Students will tour the US EPA’s Global Climate Change Terracosm Research Facility located across the street from the OSU campus. Once back in the classroom, students will examine datasets from the asymmetric warming experiment from the EPA terracosms showing changes in grassland season length and flowering times, and alterations in ecosystem water budgets (soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and ground water stores). These data will be used to determine if vegetation might help to sequester some of the excess CO2 flux to the atmosphere. Student groups will graph portions of these datasets and discuss their conclusions with the class. 8 Lab 6. OSU Solar Arrays Field Trip Students will tour one of OSU’s solar array fields to attain an understanding of efforts that OSU is making to offset their C footprint. Upon returning to the classroom, students will be provided a real-life example of how to reduce the electric costs for the EPA’s global warming terracosm experiment and calculate the number of solar panels and roof area that would be needed to offset the cost of running the experiment. Lab 7. Climate Change Myths Students will break into small groups and be assigned to one of the most popular climate myths from skepticalscience.com. Working as a team they will be asked to use physical science principles, knowledge of the drivers of the earth’s climate system, and the most common logical fallacies used in the popular press to address the climate myth for their group. Groups will present their results to the rest of the class and modify their analysis based on input and discussion with the rest of the class. Lab 8. Carbon Mitigation Town Hall Summit In this lab/recitation exercise the class will be divided into five groups, each of which will approach carbon mitigation through a stakeholder approach. Each student will take on the role of a stakeholder, and there will always be one scientist in the group. As a group, students will do research to explore different sides of the issue and present a 15-20 minute mock debate to the rest of the class. Topics for debate include: Deforestation: Can a permit be issued to clear a pristine tropical rainforest in Ecuador for cattle production to provide beef to McDonalds? Stakeholders: Ecuadorian farmer, McDonalds, IPCC scientist, dietician, ecologist, American mom, policy analyst. Car manufacturer: Can a permit be issued for a car company to develop a new car that gets only 10 miles to the gallon? Stakeholders: Automobile company, gas company, IPCC scientist, educated college student, truck enthusiast. OSU parking: Should Oregon State University (OSU) impose a “no parking on campus” rule, thereby encouraging students and employees to use Corvallis’ free busing system? Stakeholders: car company, gas company, OSU employee with a child, IPCC scientist, educated college student. Air travel restrictions: Should air travel be minimized to two flights/person/year with all flights beyond this charged for C offsets (exceptions available for health/bereavement)? Stakeholders: airline company, gas company, international business, avid vacationer, IPCC scientist, educated college student, Vegas casino owner. C offsets for shipping: Should the US demand that C offsets be paid for shipping of goods within the US or internationally? Stakeholders: dietician, shipping company, gas company, international business, avid vacationer, IPCC scientist, economist, policy analyst. 9 Lab 9. Policy Options This lab will draw from the policy options presented by Mathew Nissbet http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voices/the-public-square/pathways-to-progress-on-climatechange-pt-4-diversifying-policy-options-and and policy modules developed at Carlton college http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/roleplaying/examples/gwdebate.html Students will read and learn about different policy options and present the different options in a ‘Public Square’ debate at the end of lab. 10