Download QLD State Budget 2009/10

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY
1
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION,
MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
WS (Bill) Cummings
PRESENTATION TO
Ref: J2478 | August 2011
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION,
MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
WHAT WENT WRONG?
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
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WORKFORCE - FNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION (1) 2008 TO 2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Average
Employed
(‘000)
Average
Unemployed
(‘000)
Total
Workforce
(‘000)
Average
Unemployment
Rate
%
1st half
130.8
8.0
138.8
5.8%
2nd half
137.4
8.0
145.4
5.5%
1st half
129.1
14.6
143.7
10.2%
2nd half
132.1
16.3
148.4
11.0%
1st half
133.5
16.6
150.1
11.0%
2nd half
137.3
13.1
150.4
8.7%
1st Qtr
130.4
16.2
146.7
11.0%
2nd Qtr
136.9
13.7
150.6
9.0%
(1)
Note: Cairns city and its servicing region.
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
DWELLING APPROVALS
FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION
Number
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
1981/82
1980/81
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS
FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION
$M
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS
6%
ACTUAL
* EXPECTED
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
2009/10
2007/08
2005/06
2003/04
2001/02
1999/00
1997/98
1995/96
1993/94
1991/92
1989/90
1987/88
1985/86
1983/84
1981/82
1979/80
1977/78
Year
0%
* Note: Expected order of magnitude growth rate 2009/10 & 2010/11.
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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AVERAGE ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
FNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION 1989 TO 2010
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS labour force data.
8
AVERAGE ANNUAL EMPLOYED
FNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION 1989 TO 2010
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS labour force data.
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TWO YEAR LAG
POPULATION
YEAR
AV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
GROWTH
1st HALF
2nd HALF
2007/08
4.4%
-
5.6%
2008/09
3.2%
2.6%
Est. 1%
5.5%
11.0%
8.7%
10.2%
11.0%
10.0%
2009/10
2009/11
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS population & labour force data.
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2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
DWELLING APPROVALS
Far North Queensland Statistical Division
Number
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS SSD-URP
Growth 1996-2001
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance services
Rental, hiring & real estate services
Professional, scientific & technical services
Administrative & support services
Public administration & safety
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation services
Other services
Total
-15.38%
-23.96%
5.16%
53.28%
-14.66%
-6.14%
15.23%
1.83%
3.34%
-12.11%
-13.77%
-6.58%
0.56%
4.06%
9.21%
19.52%
15.14%
-6.14%
-12.81%
1.21%
Growth 2001-2006
-27.04%
74.35%
0.02%
21.68%
71.93% Construction affected
-8.48%
10.94%
-2.44%
15.32%
-3.94%
12.50% Construction affected
26.06% Construction affected
21.68%
3.65%
38.48%
11.93%
26.57%
2.40%
12.45%
16.35%
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Census data.
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ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’
EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1)
Estimated 2008/09 Income
Tourism
$2.5 bn
Primary industries
$1.7 bn
Mining
Other (manufacturing, service
industries, regional trade, etc)
Total
$0.6 bn
(1)
$1.0 bn
$5.8 bn
Note: ie. approximate regional exports overseas and to the rest of Australia.
Source: Cummings Economics from various sources.
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PILOTS
DISPUTE
ASIAN
CRISIS
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
ANSETT
COLLAPSE
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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ESTIMATED TOURISM EXPENDITURE FNQ
DOMESTIC $M
INTERNATIONAL $M
TOTAL $M
2003/04
$1,424
$1,020
$2,444
2004/05
$1,319
$1,106
$2,425
2005/06
$1,468
$1,110
$2,578
2006/07
$1,545
$1,041
$2,586
2007/08
$1,546
$1,030
$2,576
2009 (YE DEC)
$1,741
$813
$2,554
2010 (YE DEC)
$1,440
$795
$2,235
Source: Cummings Economics from Tourism Research Australia, NVS & IVS data.
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1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
(LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2009/10)
$M
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
PRODUCTION VALUES
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
$M
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
SALE VALUES
Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Mines & Energy data (DEEDI).
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WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS
Growth 1996-2001
Growth 2001-2006
-15.38%
-23.96%
5.16%
53.28%
-14.66%
-6.14%
15.23%
1.83%
3.34%
-12.11%
-13.77%
-6.58%
0.56%
4.06%
9.21%
19.52%
15.14%
-6.14%
-12.81%
-27.04%
74.35%
0.02%
21.68%
71.93%
-8.48%
10.94%
-2.44%
15.32%
-3.94%
12.50%
26.06%
21.68%
3.65%
38.48%
11.93%
26.57%
2.40%
12.45%
1.21%
16.35%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance services
Rental, hiring & real estate services
Professional, scientific & technical services
Administrative & support services
Public administration & safety
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation services
Other services
Total
A AGRICULTURE
M MINING
T TOURISM RELATED
G
G GOVERNMENT SERVICES
G
T TOURISM RELATED
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Census data.
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19
20
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CURRENT SITUATION
• CONSISTENTLY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
• LOW POPULATION GROWTH
• LOW PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION
• LOW CONSUMER SPENDING
• PROPERTY PRICES DOWN
• SHARE MARKETS DOWN
• INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY
GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT $12BN
1% GROWTH NEEDS $120M
22
WORLD ECONOMY CHANGED
HIGH DOLLAR SUPPRESSING TOURISM
MASSIVE DEMAND CHINA & INDIA
• MINERALS / ENERGY
• BASIC AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
REGION’S POTENTIAL?
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24
MINING
MINERAL SALES 2009/10 $900m
FIFO
Est.
$150m
NEAR NORTH TRADE
Est.
$600m
25
AGRICULTURE
• REAL LONG TERM GROWTH 2-3% PA
• TOTAL INCLUDING POST FARM GATE $1.7BN
• HINTERLAND POPULATION 2010
CAIRNS
129,000
TOWNSVILLE
104,000
DARWIN
102,000
MACKAY
76,000
Incl. Bowen
Excl. Bowen
26
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
MEASURES OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY
Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
27
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
MEASURES OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY
Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
28
Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (FARM GATE)
FAR NORTH
$1.2bn
VICTORIA
$10.3bn
SE & SW QLD
$4.4bn
29
INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADING
ROAD
RAIL
SEAPORTS
POWER GRID
WATER STORAGE / IRRIGATION
30
TURNAROUND FORCES
NATIONAL SETTINGS • AUD / INTEREST RATES
• CYCLONE YASI EFFECTS
CONSTRUCTION • COUNCIL / GOVERNMENT MEASURES
• DIRECT CHINESE FLIGHTS
TOURISM • CONFERENCE, SPORT, EDUCATION
• FLY-IN SERVICES
PNG • SHIPPING SERVICES
MINING • FLY-IN CENTRAL QLD / OTHER
• COPPERSTRIKE, KAGARA, CONSOLIDATED TIN
HINTERLAND MINING • WEIPA EXPANSION
• CATCHUP UNIVERSITY
GOVERNMENT • HOSPITAL (TERTIARY)
• OTHER
• NAVY, CARGO
MARITIME • SUPERYACHT
• SUGAR EXPANSION & NEW PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURE • BIOFUELS / OTHER
31
CAIRNS CAN RETURN TO STRONG
GROWTH AND PROSPERITY
BUT SOME CHANGES IN ATTITUDE NEEDED
RECOGNITION THAT THE
WORLD ECONOMY HAS CHANGED
32
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION,
MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
WS (Bill) Cummings
www.cummings.net.au
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY
PRESENTATION TO
Ref: J2478 | August 2011