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Australia’s Future Workforce
Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013
Ivan Neville
Branch Manager
Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch
Current labour market conditions
• Over the year to February 2013, labour market
conditions have been relatively subdued:
– Employment increased by 197,400 (1.7 per cent) to
11,628,300;
– The unemployment rate edged up from 5.2 per cent to 5.4
per cent;
– The participation rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to
stand at 65.3 per cent;
– The Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) decreased by 0.7 per cent
in January 2013 and fell more sharply by 23.2 per cent
over the year.
Pre-GFC and now...
Sep-08
Feb-13
Unemployment rate
4.3%
5.4%
Annual employment growth
2.5%
1.7%
Participation rate
65.5%
65.3%
Long Term Unemployed
78,000
122,100*
IVI vacancy count
316,628
168,327*
Regional disparity
6.6% pts
8.2% pts*
8.8%
11.9%
Youth unemployment rate
* These figures are for January 2013, the latest available data
Internationally, we are still performing well
14.0
12.0
11.9
11.7
10.6
Unemployment rate (%)
10.0
8.1
8.0
7.7
7.7
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.3
4.2
4.0
2.0
0.0
Euro area
Italy
France
OECD
US
UK
Canada
Australia
Germany
Japan
Gold Coast and Greater Brisbane
Gold Coast
Greater Brisbane
5.3%
5.7%
300,800
1,073,000
Annual employment growth
-2.1%
-0.2%
Participation rate
64.7%
67.8%
Long Term Unemployed
3200
12,900
Average duration of UE
30.3 weeks
39.8 weeks
10.5%
12.6%
Unemployment rate
Total employment
Youth unemployment rate
Source: 3 month averaged original Labour Force Survey data to January 2013
Year on year employment growth, Gold Coast
Retail Trade
7.8
Financial and Insurance Services
2.6
Information Media and Telecommunications
2.5
Mining
1.3
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
0.5
Arts and Recreation Services
0.4
Health Care and Social Assistance
0.2
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
-0.1
Education and Training
-0.1
Accommodation and Food Services
-0.1
Other Services
-0.7
Wholesale Trade
-0.9
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
-1.1
Public Administration and Safety
-1.4
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
-2.0
Administrative and Support Services
-2.4
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
-2.5
Construction
Manufacturing
-3.6
-5.0
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Source: 4 quarter averaged original Labour Force Survey data to November 2012
National employment growth by industry
Actual
Projected
Indexed, Nov 2002 = 100
Structural change in the labour market
Source: ABS trend employment data, November 2012
Job growth by skill
5 years to November 2012
Source: DEEWR trend employment data, November 2012
Labour Market Outcomes by Educational
Attainment for 25 to 34 year olds – Gold Coast
Source: 2011 Census of Population and Housing
Employability skills are important
Some willingness to hire someone without Job Specific Skills:
• Experience (8.8%)
• Technical skills (6.2%)
• Qualifications/licensing/registration (2.1%)
But reluctance to hire someone without employability skills:
• Motivation (2.6%)
• Communication skills (0.9%)
• Organisational skills (0.5%)
• English proficiency (0.5%)
• Teamwork skills (0.3%)
Source: DEEWR, Survey of Recruitment Conditions in Capital Cities, March 2012
National age profile by industry
15-44
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
45 and over
42.8
57.2
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
51.7
48.3
Education and Training
51.8
48.2
Health Care and Social Assistance
53.5
Public Administration and Safety
46.5
55.4
44.6
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
57.1
42.9
Wholesale Trade
57.3
42.7
Administrative and Support Services
58.5
41.5
Manufacturing
59.0
41.0
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
60.5
39.5
ALL INDUSTRIES
61.3
38.7
Other Services
64.1
35.9
Construction
65.5
34.5
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
65.9
34.1
Mining
67.5
32.5
Arts and Recreation Services
67.7
32.3
Information Media and Telecommunications
68.5
31.5
Financial and Insurance Services
68.6
31.4
Retail Trade
69.7
30.3
Accommodation and Food Services
22.2
77.8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of employment (per cent)
Source: 4 quarter averaged original Labour Force Survey data to November 2012
Going forward, some sectors will perform
better than others
Health Care and Social Assistance
241.8
Construction
131.2
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
108.2
Mining
103.7
Education and Training
61.3
Retail Trade
50.4
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
42.0
Public Administration and Safety
31.2
Accommodation and Food Services
30.9
Financial and Insurance Services
18.5
Other Services
18.4
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
17.9
Administrative and Support Services
17.7
Wholesale Trade
17.0
Arts and Recreation Services
7.8
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
6.7
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
5.5
Information Media and Telecommunications
4.6
Manufacturing
-85.6
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Projected employment growth ('000)
Source: 2012 DEEWR employment projections to November 2016
Prevalence of skill shortages
• Skill shortages are less
widespread than at any
100
90
time over the past six
80
years.
70
• Shortages are more
60
prevalent for trades.
(%)
50
40
• Wastage (that is, people
leaving the occupation for 30
20
which they trained) is an
10
issue for a number of
0
trades.
Proportion of consistently surveyed
occupations in shortage
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Professions
Technicians and Trades
All SERA Occupations
Source: DEEWR Skill Shortage Research
Persistent Shortages
17 occupations have been in shortage for at least 9 of the past 10 years.
Professionals
Trades Workers
•
•
•
•
•
• Airconditioning and Refrigeration
Mechanic
• Automotive Electrician
• Chef/Cook
• Hairdresser
• Metal Machinist (First Class)
• Motor Mechanics
• Panelbeater
• Pastrycook
• Sheetmetal Trades Worker
• Vehicle Painter
Civil Engineering Professionals
Midwives
Physiotherapist
Registered Nurses
Sonographer
Child Care occupations
• Child Care Centre Manager
• Child Care Worker
Source: DEEWR Skill Shortage Research
Growth occupations
Even in a subdued labour market, some occupations have
shown solid growth over the past five years. These include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Registered Nurses
Sales Assistants (General)
Aged and Disabled Carers
Electricians
Contract, Program and Project Administrators
Education Aides
Metal Fitters and Machinists
Child Carers
Truck Drivers
Further information
• For more information:
– www.deewr.gov.au/lmip
– www.deewr.gov.au/regionalreports
– www.deewr.gov.au/australianjobs
– www.joboutlook.gov.au
– www.skillsinfo.gov.au
– www.jobsearch.gov.au