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DEMAND MODELING APPROACH
FOR ENERGY SERVICES
MODELING COLLOQUIUM
31 JULY 2012
Dr R Maserumule
Demand Modeling Specialist
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Department of Energy
Energy Demand in South Africa
Petroleum
Products
5%
Percentage of Total
Consumption
Nonspecified
6%
Agriculture
2%
This what
we collect
Residential
18%
Industry
37%
Residential Usage
Renewabl
es &
Waste
33%
Electricity
25%
Coal
37%
Electrical
Appliances
5%
Transport
29%
Commercial
8%
This what
we need
for the IEP
Residential Usage
Lighting
15%
Space
Heating
25%
Cooking
25%
Water
Heating
30%
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3
South African Context
• Studies on end use once off
– Institute Energy Studies (Early 1990’s)
– Eskom (2012)
– Department of Energy (2009, 2012)
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Three Basic Approaches to Forecasting
• Judgmental: Obtained by
asking a group of experts
about the behavior of the
population.
• Econometric: Obtained by
analysing the time series
of historical population
• Engineering: Obtained
through small scale
studies of a controlled
population
Hybrid Approach
Phase One: EngineeringPhase Two: EconometricUse existing studies on
the use of energy carriers Project the demand for
each energy carrier using
for end use services
historical data (DoE(Institute for Energy
Energy Balances, EskomStudies 1993, Frost &
Electricity Sales)
Sullivan 2012,
Department of Energy
2012)
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Hybrid Approach
Phase One: Engineering- Use
existing studies on the use of energy
carriers for end use services
(Institute for Energy Studies 1993,
Frost & Sullivan 2012, Department
of Energy 2012)
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Total Energy
Carriers
(303805 TJ)
Electricity End Use
(83695 PJ)
3%
Electricity,
83965, 28%
Coal,
182119,
60%
Gas,
37721, 12%
Lighting
4%
Fans
6%
Motors
40%
Compressors
8%
HVAC
Total Energy
Services
(303805 TJ)
Process
Heat
39%
Lighting
,
3358.6,
1%
Gas End Use
(37721 TJ)
Process
Heat
100%
Compressor,
6717.2, 2%
Motors,
33586, 11%
HVAC,
2518.95, 1%
Fans, 5037.9,
2%
Process
Heat,
252586.35,
83%
Coal End Use
(182119 TJ)
Process
Heat
100%
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Overview of Demand Models (112)
Sector
Number of Demand Models
Residential (4 sub sectors)
•Low Income Non-electrified
•Low Income Electrified
•Middle Income Electrified
•High Income Electrified
22 demand models
Commercial
6 demand models
Industrial (9 sub sectors)
•Iron and Steel
•Basic Chemicals
•Non-ferrous Metals
•Rest of Basic Metals
•Gold Mining
•Coal Mining
•Platinum Mining
•Other Mining
•Rest of Manufacturing
72 demand models
Agriculture
9 demand models
Transport
3 demand models
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Opportunities for Collaboration
• Continuous detailed sector studies on end
use
– Measure carbon footprint
– Opportunities for deploying energy efficiency
interventions
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Hybrid Approach
Phase Two: Econometric-Project
the demand for each energy carrier
using historical data (DoE-Energy
Balances, Eskom-Electricity Sales)
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Bottom Up Approach
Sector/Sub Sector
Activity Variable
Residential
Total number of households
Commercial
Commercial floor space
Agriculture
Tons of agricultural output
Iron and Steel
Tons of iron and steel
Chemical
Tons of chemical
Non-ferrous Metals
Tons of non-ferrous metals
Rest of Basic Metals
Tons of output for the remaining
metals
Gold Mining
Tons of gold
Platinum Mining
Tons of platinum
Other Mining
Tons of other mining output
Rest of Manufacturing
Tons of production for total
manufacturing
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Opportunities for Collaboration
• Common dataset for historical energy
consumption
– DoE energy balances
– Eskom electricity sales
– Other data sets
• Common dataset for macroeconomic data
• GDP growth
• Activity variables
– Population (total number of households)
– Physical Production (tons of coal, tons of gold)
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THANK YOU
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