Download Modeling & Simulation Division Activities A. Quantitative

Modelling & Simulation
Division Activities:
A: Quantitative Modelling &
Simulation:
B: Data Warehousing, OLAP
& Data Mining:
A.Quantitative Modelling & Simulation:
Objectives:
To:
- Create awareness on modelling
techniques; it’s benefits and the
way to use them
- Provide training and consultancy
on OR, statistical and other
quantitative techniques
- Make available the state-of-the-art
modelling infrastructure facilities for
use by the planner(s) and
administrator(s)
at the centre,
state and district level
- Development of indigenous software
packages, and application
development
using sectorial
integrated databases
Domain Area of Application:
Core Management Techniques:
- PRE-PROCESSING OF LARGE STATISTICAL
INFORMATION
- STATISTICAL ANALYSES AND MODELLING
- OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES
- PROJECT MANAGEMENT
- SYSTEM DYNAMICS
- FORECASTING TECHNIQUES:
• TIME SERIES MODELS
• ECONOMETRIC MODELS
• NEURAL NETWORK BASED MODELS
DATA WAREHOUSING, OLAP AND DATA
MINING(INCLUDING TEXT)
SPECIFIC STUDIES/APPLICATIONS/
SYSTEMS-Associated With:
Central Government:
• Simulation Model for Cadre Management
User: Department of Personnel & Training
• Computerized Rolling Industry Supply
Plan Model for All India Petroleum Products
Movement-A linear programming model for
transportation and distribution of major
petroleum products
User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum & Natural
Gas
• POL consumption forecast for Indian
Army
User: Oil Coordination Committee
(OCC)/Ministry of Petroleum and Natural
Gas
• Price Anomalies System for Petroleum
Product(s) at Retail Price Outlets
- A mathematical model to decide level
of imposition of surcharge for
different
modes of transports
User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum & Natural
Gas
• Medium Range Production Planning
Optimization Model for Vizag Refinery
- Monthly production/operation Plan
- (Linear Programming Model)
User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas
• Optimum Location, Number(s) and
Capacities of LPG Bottling Plant(s) and
Optimal Distribution Plan for a defined time
horizon- A study
User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas
• Optimal Routing using Networking
Techniques for Coal Movement throughout
the country based on Djikstra Algorithm
User: Energy Policy Division/Planning
Commission
• Support to National Energy Model: Coal,
Petroleum products and Natural Gas
Models and Report Generation System
User: High Power Committee on Energy
Policy Planning/ Planning Commission
• DSS for Optimal Import and Production
Plan for Maximum Availability of DAP
User: Department of Agriculture and
Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture
• Seasonally Adjusted Models for India’s
Export and Re-export Series based on X-11
Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) methodology
User: Ministry of Commerce
• Computer Aided Optimization ModelTransportation and Distribution System for
Fertilizer Movement
User: Department of Agriculture and
Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture
• *A Decision Support Optimization Model
for the Transportation and Distribution of
Fertilizer Product Using Multi-objective
criterion-Goal Programming
User: Department of Fertilizer/Ministry of
Agriculture
• Statistical Modelling Support to the
Working Group on fertilizers for the 9th Five
Year Plan
User: Working Group/Department of
Fertilizer/Ministry of Agriculture
• Policy Planning Model for the Effective
Management of Public Distribution System
User: Ministry of Food and Consumer
Affairs
• Forecasting and Monitoring Whole Sale
Price Indices (WPI)-Rate of Inflation
User: Planning Commission and Ministry of
Industry
• Generalized model for optimal selection
of nutritional diet-Proposal
User: Department of Sports/Ministry of
HRD
• A study on Determinants for the
Production of Steel in India
User: Planning Commission/Ministry of
Programme Implementation
• A Forecasting System for Index of
Industrial Production(IIP) based on ARIMA
Methodology
User: Ministry of Industry
• *TABGENIC: 6th All India Education
Survey-SIF-II Tabulation
User: NCERT/Department of
Education/Ministry of HRD
• Establishment of Project Management
Cell in the Administrative Ministries for the
Management of Central Sector Projects
User: Office of the Cabinet Secretariat
• Analysis and development of Project
Management System for Khadia Coal
Project
User: Ministry of Coal and Mines
• ANALYST- General purpose interactive
statistical analyses tool
User: All NIC users-internal and external
• Project Monitoring Model for Operations
Blackboard
- CPM PERT based system to provide
minimum infrastructure facilities to every
school throughout the country-monitoring
and control system
User: Department of Education, Ministry of
Human Resource Development
• Price Elasticity Analysis Study for
Newspaper Circulation
- To ascertain the effects of the prices of
newspaper and per capita income on the
newspaper circulation using Statistical
Regression Model
User: Economic Adviser, Ministry of Labour
• A study on Crime Projections till 2000 AD
- Interactive forecasting system for all
India Violent, Non-violent crimes
User: Bureau of Police Research &
Development, Ministry of Home Affairs
• All India Fertilizer Distribution and
Movement Plan System based on multiobjective criterion-Goal Programming
User: DAC/Ministry of Agriculture
• *Technical Proposal-Project Management
System for monitoring and control-Ganga
Action Plan Phase-II
User: Ministry of Environment and Forest
• Performance Evaluation System for
India’s export/import based on ARIMA
methodology
User: Ministry of Commerce
• Appraisal Report on DOEACC Application
System
User: DOEACC/Department of Information
Technology
• Demand Forecasting based on Neural
Network for High Powered Fertilizer
Committee, to review the international
Pricing Policy for all fertilizers
User: Research and Information System/
Ministry of External Affairs
• Objective based software selection for
Statistical/Econometric systems-A study
User: Department of Economic Affairs/
Ministry of Finance
• National & Regional monthly demand
forecast for N, P and K based on Neural
Network approach
User: Department of Agriculture &
Cooperation(DAC)/Ministry of Agriculture
• Fertilizer Demand Projection(s) for the
working group on fertilizer for 10th five year
plan period
User: Department of Agriculture &
Cooperation(DAC)/Ministry of Agriculture
PSUs/Autonomous Institutions:
• A System Study(Sizing) Report for
computing requirements of NCAER
User: National Council of Applied Economic
Research
• *Computer Aided Forecasting Study-All
India Fertilizer(N, P and K) Demand
User: Fertilizer Association of India
• Feasibility study on “Decision support
system for optimal distribution of rural
energy at district level-Proposal
User: Tata Energy Research Institute
• Investment planning model for the
development of Inland Container Depot
infrastructure for freight containers
movement-Simulation Technique approach
User: High Power Committee on Transport
Planning/Planning Commission
• Development & Implementation of
Transportation & Distribution plan system
User: Madras Fertilizers, Chennai
• All India Fertilizers Demand projection(s)
till year 2000
User: Fertilizer Association of India
• Methodology for All India transportation
and distribution of food grains-A study
User: Food Corporation of India
• *CPM/PERT based Monitoring System for
Construction of Food grain Storages
User: Food Corporation of India
• * Appraisal Report on NJPC-TCS Study for
Project Management Function
User: Nathpa Jhakri Power Corporation
STATE GOVERNMENTS:
• Optimal Liquor Inventory Management
System
User: IMFL Division/Delhi Transport and
Tourism Development
Corporation/Government of Delhi
• System Study Report on PDS for
Specified Food Articles Movement
User: Delhi State Civil Supplies
Corporation/Government of NCT
• Decision Support System for Health
Facility Planning in a state
User: Government of Rajasthan
• Computer Aided Supervisor Assignment
System for Board Examination-An
Optimization System-A Study
User: Department of Education/Haryana
Government
• Optimal Peak Electricity Load
Management System
User: Orissa Electricity Board/Government
of Orissa
• Dead Mileage Reduction System for State
Transport Corporation
User: Karnataka State Transport
Corporation/Government of Karnataka
• *Computerized Reservoir Storage and
Level Forecasting System using ARIMA
User: Dhom Dam/Department of
Irrigation/Government of Maharastra
• PDS Commodities Distribution and
Movement Planning System
User: Department of Food and
Supply/Government of Gujarat
• Optimization System for Passenger
Transport Facility Planning SystemMaximizing the passenger bus services and
maximizing the rate of return
User: State Transport
Corporation/Himachal Pradesh Government
Generalized Applications:
• Forecasting and Monitoring Based on
ARIMA/Box-Jenkins Methodology
• Generalized Decision Support System for
Transportation and Distribution Planning
System using Multi-objective Criterion
• A Decision Support System(DSS) for
Multi-Criteria Transportation and
Distribution Problems
• Forecast consultant for Final Forecasting
Technique Selection
• Optimization algorithms(Linear and Goal
Programming) using product form of
inverse approach
• Optimal distribution of funds for different
sectors of Indian economy using multiobjective goal programming approach
• Generalized ARIMA algorithm developed
based on Box and Jenkins
• Web based Agriculture/Food price
monitoring system for District level
markets
• Generalized Multi criterion Transportation
& Distribution system based on GP for
movement of all products(Fertilizer, Food
grains, Coal Steel, etc.)
B. DATAWAREHOUSING, OLAP AND
DATA MINING
• Data Warehouse/OLAP/Data Mining
System for central sector projects
- Projects Costing Rs.20 crores and above
User: Ministry of Statistics & Programme
Implementation
DETAILED DESCRIPTION:
• DSS FOR OPTIMAL IMPORT AND
PRODUCTION PLAN FOR MAXIMUM
AVAILABILITY OF DAP FERTILIZER
User: Department of Agriculture and
Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture
+
+
Limited Foreign Exchange Availability
Three Type of Import Options
1. Finished product[i.e.,DAP]
2.Rock Phosphate+Sulphur
3.Phosphoric Acid+Ammonia
+ Option 2 and 3 also involves
Production Cost
+ (Lead) Time Available
+ Port Handling Constraints
Find out the Import Plan, which gives
maximum DAP, which implies maximum
utilization of Plants
• COMPUTERIZED RESERVOIR
STORAGE AND LEVEL FORECASTING
SYSTEM USING ARIMA METHODOLOGY
User: Dhom Dam/Department of
Irrigation/Government of Maharashtra
+ Daily/Weekly Reservoir Storage
Level Monitoring
+ Seven days ahead forecast of storage
level using Univariate Box Jenkins
ARIMA methodology
+
+
+
+
+
MIS Query and Report system
Graphical display and analyses of
storage level
Implemented in Dhom Dam of satara
District, Maharastra
Developed on UNIX Platform
With some fine-tuning can be used in
other dams
• PDS COMMODITIES DISTRIBUTION
AND MOVEMENT PLANNING SYSTEM
User: Department of Food and Civil
Supplies/Government of Gujarat
+ Fortnightly movement of Wheat
and Rice and monthly for Sugar
+ Centre allocates the quantity every
month [depending on the stock]
+
+
+
+
+
FCI Regional Center, Gujarat
identifies the quantity and the
godowns from where the state has to
lift
Limited Transport Vehicles
Limited Time
Huge Transport Cost involvement
Software constructs the optimization
model; runs; generates the
movement plan with minimum cost
and time
• FORECASTING AND MONITORING
WHOLE SALE PRICE INDICES(WPI)RATE OF INFLATION
User: Planning Commission and Ministry of
Industry
+
Only actual WPI values released by
Advisor, Ministry of Industry have
been used
+
+
+
Actual Monthly Data from Apr 1982 to
Mar 1993 used
Unvariate ARIMA Methodology used
The actual value for monthly price
index is obtained after a time lag of
two months
+
The monthly price index is a simple
arithmetic average of the
corresponding weekly price indices of
the month
+
The forecast model equation, along
with various error statistics is
provided