Download Regionalisation

Regionalisation
Global change with local consequences
Daniela Jacob, Katharina Bülow, Ralf Diener, Holger Göttel, Stefan Hagemann,
Sven Kotlarski, Philip Lorenz, Lennart Marien, Eva Mazurkewitz, Susanne
Pfeifer, Diana Rechid….
......thank you for your enthusiastic work!
Dresden, August 2002
• Jahrhunderthochwasser in Rhein und Mosel, Dez. 1993
• Jahrhunderthochwasser in Rhein und Mosel, Jan. 1995
• Jahrhunderthochwasser in der Oder, Juli 1997
• Hochwasser in der Donau und Lake Constance, Mai 1999
• Ausgedehnte und lang anhaltende Überschwemmungen in
Westeuropa, bes. in Südengland und Wales, Herbst 2000
• Hochwasser in der Vistula, Juli 2001
• Hochwasser in der Donau, August 2002
• Jahrhunderthochwasser in der Elbe, August 2002
• Extreme Niederschläge und Überschwemmungen in
Südfrankreich, Sept. 2002
• Schwere Überschwemmungen entlang einiger deutscher
Flüsse, Jan. 2003
source: Spiegel Nr. 7 2003; Quarterly report of the DWD, special topic July 2003
Outline
‹ regional modelling
‹ regional climate change
‹ future topics
The Baltic Sea
~ 250 km
~ 50 km
~ 100 km
~ 18 km
Total annual Precipitation
Observations (1971-90)
REMO 1/6 ° (1979-88)
REMO 1/2 ° (1979-93)
REMO 0.088 ° (1979-86)
mm/ year
Domain for UBA
IPCC runs
REMO, 10 km with ECMWF boundary fields
Calculated trend in the number of hot days
days per decade
(1960 to 2000) using ERA40-REMO results on 20 km grid
Hot day: 5K above mean of daily maximum
SFB 512
Into the future….
results from the Prudence project
2071-2100: A2 (P-E=Runoff) changes
20.0%
REMO
DMI
GKSS
KNMI
CNRM
ETH
HC
SMHI
UCM
ITCP
Mean
Change in P-E
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
Baltic Sea cat.
Danube
Elbe
Rhine
Into the future….
SRES B2
REMO on 20 km resolution
Summer day periods, REMO 20 km, SRES B2,
2071-2100 compared with 1961-1990
Luleaelven
Rhein
Frequency of summer day periods
(Tmax > 25°C)
change in frequency
[periods per 30 years]
Ebro
length of period [days]
Numbers: Blue - today, red - future
Number of Wet days (>20 mm/day), B2
1961-1990
Winter
Summer
(2021-2050) - (1961-1990)
Elbe drainage basin:
Wet days and their precipitation amount
Summer
JJA
Wet days
amount / season
Precipitation
mm / day
1961-1990
1.58
28.98
1991-2020
1.54
29.22
2021-2050
Winter
DJF
1.91
Wet days
amount / season
30.73
Precipitation
mm / day
1961-1990
0.46
24.37
1991-2020
0.42
24.76
2021-2050
0.73
24.97
Low flow periods in the Rhine river
Niedrigwasserperioden
(Qm²/s)
< 750 m2/s)
Low flow periods (Q < 750
Pegel
Kaub
Gauging
station
Kaub
Number
Anzahl
of low flow periods
Niedrigwasserperioden
14
12
1961-1990
10
2021-2050
8
6
4
2
0
3 bis 7
8 bis 14
15 bis 21
Period length (days)
Periodenlänge
(in Tagen)
> 21
Into the future….
SRES A1B, A2, B1
REMO on 50 km resolution using
ECHAM5 IPCC simulations as drivers
New REMO simulations:
A1B, B1, A2
50 km (finished)
10 km (UBA, not finished)
Annual mean 2m-temperature
in Germany
Temperature
(A1B)
REMO 2m Temperatur [K]
ECHAM 2m Temperatur [K]
CRU 2m Temperatur [K]
ERA 2m Temperatur [K]
REMO (blue),
ECHAM (pink),
observations
(green), ERA40
(light blue)
16
14
12
°C
10
8
6
4
2
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
Baltic catchment with river routing
and sub-catchments
Decadal variability in simulated run-off into the Baltic Sea and net
transport through the Kattegat
for
REMO
0.44°1900
CTRL+A1Bto 2100 (A1B)
950
km³/year
850
750
650
550
450
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
time
Runoff into Baltic Sea
net Transport Kattegat
2035
2045
2055
2065
2075
2085
2095
Track Densities
Vb-Cyclones (May-Sept.)
1901-1930: 24
1931-1960: 21
1961-1990: 25
Muskulus, M. and D. Jacob (2005)
Future topics
Water cycle
Vb cyclones
Hurricanes
Heavy precipitation and floods
Heat waves, droughts and low flows
Climate change and air quality
….
Hope to see you next year for the workshop on
regional climate changes!