Download 2002 2006 2010 2012

Prevalence and patterns of drug use among general population Indicator (GPS)
Annual Expert Meeting 2014
Trend in drug use
in Poland
Janusz Sierosławski
Institute of Psychiatry i Neurology
Warsaw
Lisbon, 17-18 June 2014
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Introduction
 Three countrywide population surveys in
Poland – 2002, 2006, 2010


drugs the main topic
surveys implemented by National Bureau for
Drug Prevention – fieldwork: contracted agency
 GPS – 2012
 gambling and other behavioral addictions the
main topic)
 survey commissioned by National Bureau for
Drug Prevention – implemented by: contracted
agency
2
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
General Population Surveys
2002
Topics
alc + drugs
2006
2010
alc + drugs alc + drugs
2012
gambling
Age coverage*
16+
15-64
15-64
15+
Sample size
(unweighted)
6340
2859
5782
4038
3 regions
3 cities
Age 15-34
Warsaw
8 Regions
No
3148
1365
3861
4038
household
household
household
individuals
61%
51%
71%
?
Over-representations
Sample size (weighted)
Sampling
Response rate
* Population for trend analyses – 16-64
3
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Drug use during last 12 months – GPS (age 16-64)
9
2002
8
2006
2010
2012
8.0
7
6
5
3.8
4
2.8 2.8
3
2
1
1.5
0.7 0.7
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.1
1.3
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2 0.3
0.1
0.1 0.2
0.2
0
LSD
Amphetamine Hallucinogenic
mushrooms
Ecstasy
Cocaine
0.0 0.1 0.0 0
Heroin
Cannabis
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Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Cannabis use – GPS (age 16-64)
20
17.8
18
2002
2006
2010
2012
16
14
12.3
12
10
8
9.1
8.0
7.7
6
4.3
3.8
4
2.8 2.8
1.3 1.0
2
1.8
0
liftime
last 12 month
last 30 days
5
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Cannabis use GPS (age 16-34)
35
2002
29.9
30
2006
2010
2012
25
20.8
20
17.4
16.1
14.7
15
10
8.6
8.2
6.3
5.3
5
2.7 1.9
3.9
0
liftime
last 12 month
last 30 days
6
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Cannabis use during last 12 months by age
groups
20
18.6
2002
18
2006
2010
2012
16
14
11.2
12
10
11.5
9.7
8.6
8
5.7
6
4.1
3.4 3.1
4
2.0
2
0.3
2.5
1.4
0.2 0.4
0.4
0
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-64
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Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Cannabis use (GPS) and number of drug
related offences noted by police
90000
35
y = 0.0041x4 - 0.127x3 + 1.1663x2 - 2.4473x + 8.4038
R² = 1
drug related offences
80000
30
12 months use (ESPAD)
70000
12 months use (GPS 16-34)
25
60000
20
20
50000
17
15
40000
15
12
11
30000
20000
7
8
6
10
5
5
10000
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Estimate of cannabis use incidence (data from
GPS 2002, 2006 and 2010)
1991-1994
1995-1998
1999-2002
2003-2006
2007-2010
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Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Any drug use (generic question) - Social
Diagnosis (1992-2013)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
y = 0.4321ln(x) + 0.1351
R² = 0.8219
0.0
Źródło danych: lata 1991-1997 — Czapiński, 1998; lata 2000-2013 — Diagnoza Społeczna
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Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Lifetime drug use – ESPAD (age: 15-16) –
percent of respondents
30
Amphetamine
Hallucinogens
25
Cannabis
24
Cocaine
20
Heroin
10
5
0
16
15
15
10
19
Ecstasy
3
2
1
1995
7
6
4
3
2
1999
6
3
2
2
4
3
2
1
5
3
1
2003
2007
2011
11
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
ESPAD – cannabis life time use
(percent of respondents)
25
23
19
20
17
15
15
11
17
18
16
14
10
5
8
Poland
Europe
0
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
12
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Perceived availability of drugs (percent of respondents
with responses „easy or very easy) – ESPAD (age 15-16)
25
19.6
20
16.5
17.4
15.7
18.6
16.5
15.7
15
11.5
10.4
10
6.3
5
11.8
11.5
Cannabis
Amphetamine
9.6
7.4
6.3
7.2
4.7
Tranquilizers
5.5
5
Ecstasy
2.4
0
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
13
(ESPAD, age 15-16)
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Perceived risk related to cannabis use –
percent of respondents with „high risk”
90
80
82
83
80
79
70
60
50
66
55
53
56
53
50
47
40
51
42
30
20
10
0
Try cannabis once or twice
33
30
Smoke cannabis occasionally
Smoke cannabis regularly
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
14
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
(GPS, age 16-64)
Perceived risk related to cannabis use –
percent of respondents with „high risk”
100
90
2002
2006
92.8 93.2
2010
76.5
80
68.8 70.8
70
60
50
40
30
49.7 49.4
47.0
30.6
20
10
0
Try cannabis once or
twice
Smoke cannabis
occasionally
Smoke cannabis
regularly
15
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Any drug use and cannabis use during last
12 months – school survey (age 18-19)
45
40
35
cannabis
any drug (generic question)
40
36
31
30
24
25
18
20
15
15
16
2008
2010
18
10
10
5
0
1996
1999
2003
2013
16
Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Conclusions
 At least stabilization or even decrease of last
years prevalence of use drugs other than
cannabis
 Increase of cannabis use but probably
stabilization in incidence
 Decrease of perceived risk related to cannabis
use
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Janusz Sierosławski, Instytut Psychiatrii i Neurologii, Warszawa
Reservations and limitations
 Question on survey comparability



context of drug questions
interviewers training
sampling – households or directly individuals
 Changing in drug use or in readiness to report
drug use
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