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Inside China’s Auto Market
SUE YINGZI SU
Senior Economist, General Motors
INTRODUCTION
¶ The “China Slowdown” shocked the world this year. Vehicle
sales also grew much slower than expected
¶ Yet, China auto industry remains the most important growth
market in the world
–
–
Low vehicle ownership density
Room for growth in smaller cities
¶ But, pace of auto sales will be slower than before
– Slower growth in Chinese economy
– Restrictions on auto purchases and uses
China was the biggest growth engine for the world during the
past decade
Contribution to World GDP Growth
5%
Brazil
China
India
Russia
U.S.
Rest of World
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
2000
2001
Source: World Bank
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
However, the Chinese economy is slowing
Real GDP Growth (%)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Its traditional growth model faces significant challenges
Fixed Assets Investment
YTD Y/Y Change
Housing Starts
YTD Y/Y Change
70%
45%
50%
35%
30%
25%
10%
15%
5%
2003
-10%
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
-30%
2003
2005
40%
270%
30%
250%
20%
230%
10%
210%
0%
190%
-10%
170%
-20%
2003
150%
2003
2005
2007
2009
Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics
2009
2011
2013
2015
Loan as % of GDP
Exports
Y/Y Change
(12-mma)
2007
2011
2013
2015
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Impact of China slowdown is far-reaching
China’s share in world commodity consumption
6
Commodity prices have collapsed, one major reason why
commodity-exporting countries have fallen into recessions
Copper Price Y/Y Change
160%
China Real GDP Growth
16%
120%
14%
80%
12%
40%
10%
0%
8%
-40%
6%
-80%
2001
4%
2003
2005
2007
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Wall Street Journal
2009
2011
2013
2015
China Real GDP Growth
Copper Price
China’s surprising devaluation of the yuan in August
panicked the global financial market
% Change versus USD since August 10, 2015
Depreciation
Appreciation
Kazakhstan: KZT
Brazil: BRL
Malaysia: MYR
South Africa: ZAR
Russia: RUB
Turkey: TRY
Colombia: COP
Australia: AUD
Indonesia: IDR
New Zealand: NZD
Mexico: MXN
India: INR
Taiwan: TWD
Korea: KRW
Israel: ILS
Vietnam: VND
Singapore: SGD
Chile: CLP
Thailand: THB
Philippines: PHP
China: CNY
Canada: CAD
UK: GBP
Norway: NOK
Hong Kong: HKD
Poland: PLZ
Switzerland: CHF
Euro Zone: EUR
Japan: JPY
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Since 8/10/2015
15%
20%
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Haver Analytics; Calculations: General Motors Company
Note: Data is from August 10th to September 7th, 2015
Source: Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Financial Times
25%
30%
But China is transitioning from an investment/exports-driven
economy to a consumption-driven one
Year-over-Year Growth
Share in GDP
Secondary Industry
49%
Tertiary Industry
Secondary Industry
18%
Tertiary Industry
16%
47%
14%
45%
12%
43%
10%
41%
Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
4%
2003
37%
2002
6%
2001
39%
2001
8%
Vehicle sales took off after China joined WTO. Total vehicle sales
reached 24 million units in 2014. GM volume exceeded 3.5 million
Industry Sales
30
GM Sales
4.0
3.5
25
20
2.5
15
2.0
1.5
10
1.0
5
0.5
0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: GM Global Sales Reporting
Million Units
Million Units
3.0
China has become the largest vehicle market in the world
Million Units
30
China
Europe
North America
All Other Markets
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: GM Global Sales Reporting
Top 10 GM vehicles sold in China in 2014
2
1
3
3
Wuling CN100
Buick Excelle
Wuling N1
5
6
6
Wuling CN112
8
7
Wuling N300 Pickup
Source: GM China Sales Reporting
Wuling N300
Chevy Cruze
Vehicle
Volume
CN100
470,083
N1
308,645
EXCELLE
293,098
CN112
279,933
CRUZE
244,813
N300
226,464
N300 Pickup
215,489
EXCELLE GT
195,932
SAIL
188,655
MALIBU
125,547
10
9
Buick Excelle GT
Brand
WULING
WULING
BUICK
WULING
CHEVROLET
WULING
WULING
BUICK
CHEVROLET
CHEVROLET
Chevy Sail
Chevy Malibu
Sales were slowing much more sharply than expected in 2015 till
recent months
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Source: GM Global Sales Reporting
Auto Sale Growth
Vehicle prices in China are falling faster this year
110
Mini
Small
Medium
High
Luxury
Passenger Car
100
90
80
70
60
50
2004
2005
Sources: Cheshi.com.cn
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
SUV is the fastest growing segment
SUV Growth
100%
Total Market Growth
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
2012
Source: GM Global Sales Reporting
2013
2014
2015
Growth has shifted from the large coastal cities to smaller
inner cities
Growth by Tier
Tier 1
25%
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
2012
Source: Polk
2013
2014
2015H1
GM’s Baojun 560 has become the second best selling SUV just
several months after its debut, selling over 22,000 units in
September
SHANGHAI, April 2015 – SAIC-GM-Wuling
(SGMW) today introduced its first SUV, the
Baojun 560, at Auto Shanghai 2015. The
latest Baojun model was developed by
SGMW.
The fashionable exterior of the Baojun 560 is
based on the “trendy, grand and strong”
design philosophy. A U-shaped mesh grille
complements its V-shaped air intake with a
honeycomb grid design for a dynamic effect.
A sleek beltline and strong back-end design
give it the identity of a true SUV.
With a length of 4,620 mm, width of 1,820
mm and height of 1,750 mm, the Baojun 560
has a spacious interior – true to SGMW’s
desire to offer a “home on wheels” for
families. In addition, its 2,750-mm wheelbase
is much longer than the wheelbase of most
other models in its segment. The rear seats
can be folded in a 60/40 split configuration to
accommodate larger items.
Source: General Motors
A more upscale SUV, Buick Envision, is also selling very well
with more than 10,000 units sold in September
SHANGHAI, March 2015 – Shanghai GM
will launch the Buick Envision 20T, the
newest member of its Envision mainstream
SUV lineup, across China in April.
The Envision 20T is powered by a 1.5T
Spark Ignition Direct Injection (SIDI) engine
that is matched with an intelligent sevenspeed DCG transmission. Like its sibling,
the Envision 28T, it is available with frontwheel drive and intelligent all-wheel drive.
The 1.5T SIDI turbocharged engine is the
most powerful among GM's latestgeneration Ecotec small-displacement
engines. It features mid-mounted direct
injection, an integrated exhaust manifold
and QuietTuning technology. The start/stop
function, which comes standard, helps
save fuel and reduce emissions. The
engine generates maximum power of 124
kW and peak torque of 250 Nm.
Source: General Motors
Fast backward to the year 1999 when GM’s flagship vehicle was the
luxurious Buick Regal, with government officials and wealthy
businessmen being core customers. GM has witnessed the
development of the Chinese economy and China’s vehicle market
General Motors and Shanghai
Automotive Industry Corporation
(SAIC) established a joint venture
in 1997 called Shanghai General
Motors Company Limited and
began assembling the Buick Regal
in Shanghai, China in 1999.
The Regal has sold well in the
Chinese market as a large,
relatively luxurious model, despite
its high price.
Source: General Motors
What’s next? Comparing to other more developed markets,
China still has good potential
900
Vehicle Pard Per 1,000 People
800
United States
New Zealand
700
Poland
600
Greece
Portugal
Baltics
500
Spain
Italy
Australia
Finland
United Kingdom
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Czech/Slovakia
400
Argentina
300
Malaysia
Russia Hungary
Mexico
Chile
Brazil
Turkey
South
Africa
China
Sweden
Denmark
South Korea
Israel
Taiwan
Thailand
200
100
Indonesia
India
0
Switzerland
Norway
In terms of vehicle density,
developed markets are
trending at levels that
reflect market saturation
Singapore
Hong Kong
Developing Markets Have Upside Potential
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Real GDP Per Capita (2005 USD)
Sources: National Statistics Agencies, United Nations, Haver Analytics, Polk; Calculations: General Motors Company
50,000
60,000
70,000
SUMMARY
¶ China remains a very attractive market
¶ Will account for 40% of the projected growth in global
vehicle sales over the next decade
¶ GM plans to spend over $12 billion in the next five years to
expand capacity and to offer new products
¶ We are not alone. Competitors have set equally ambitious
targets
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