Download Revised (II) 4th Revolution

TOC Americas 2015
Panama Canal Expansion Impact on
Traffic and Transshipment
Asaf Ashar
National Ports & Waterways Initiative, USA
Independent Consultant
www.asafashar.com
“Traditional” T/S Forecast Model
• T/S = Regional Traffic x T/S Incidence
• Agree: Regional Traffic = f(Regional GDP) 
No/Slow Growth
• But Assume: T/S Incidence = f(Ship Size, Port
Constraints, Alliances)  Dramatic Growth
• Because Larger Ships  Fewer Services, Less
Direct Call, Port Constraints; Alliances 
Market Power to “Abandon” Ports
• So why T/S Incidence Worldwide is “Stuck” at
30%?
Actual Effect of Ship Size & Alliancing
• Direct Calls to More Regions (Baltic) and More
Ports (Baltimore: Evergreen brings CKYH lines; MSC brings
Maersk; G6 to follow? 2M: 799 1,036 port-pairs)
• Direct Calls at Adjacent Ports (Charleston + Savanna;
Norfolk + Baltimore)
• Port Constraints? 9,300-TEU already in 42-ft
Savanna; Near-Future deepening of US ports,
Moin, Mariel, Veracruz…
• Forecast based on “Incidence” is too general!
Need detailed analysis of Service Patterns
• My analysis focuses on Additional Traffic and T/S
Main Regional Service Patterns
Cross-Canal Services
(“Horizontal”)
Asia / ECNA
Asia / GCNA
Cross-Canal Services
(“Diagonal”)
WCSA / Europe
WCSA / ECNA
Non-Canal Services (“Vertical”)
ECSA / ECNA
ECSA / GCNA
Asia / WCSA “L”
Consolidation:
Parallel
Intersection
Global
Asia / WCSA ”L”
Ashar 2015
Parallel: AWP Consolidation (CKYHE)
24 Asia/N Am = 17 USWC+ 6 4-5 AWP + 2 1 AWS; 3 CCT Stops
Canal Traffic:
4,400 + 4,500 = 8,900 TEU
AWH: 10 x 4,400 TEU AWC: 9 x 4,500 TEU
Transshipment:
4,300 + 4,250 = 8,550 TEU
AWY: 8 x 4,250 TEU
AWS: 9 x 4,300 TEU
“Abandon” Ports (Wilmington, Boston)? Add Ships (11), Speed
(20k)? Add Ports (Halifax, Miami, NOLA, Jax, Mobile, Cartagena)?
Hanjin, Ashar 2015
Parallel: Eurosal Consolidation (HPL/CMA/HSD)
7,900 + 2,500 = 10,400 TEU
3,700 + 4,200 = 7,900 TEU
Canal Traffic:
Transshipment:
“Abandon” Ports (Guayaquil, Paita)? Hubs in Panama or WCSA?
SW1: 10 x 4,200 TEU
SW2: 8 x 3,700 TEU
SW3: 6 x 2,500 TEU
Hapag Lloyd, Ashar 2015
Intersection: Asia/ECNA + Asia/WCSA
Canal Traffic:
• Massive T/S; but
• Add Time to Asia/Mexico
and Asia/WCSA
• Different Line Groupings
• Limited/No Scale
Economies
• Balancing Flows Difficult
• High Reefer Content
• Limited Prospects
Transshipment:
Asia / ECNA
Asia / WCSA
Feeder
Intersection & Global Consolidation
Cross-Canal Services
(“Horizontal”)
Asia / ECNA
Asia / GCNA
Cross-Canal Services
(“Diagonal”)
WCSA / Europe
WCSA / ECNA
Non-Canal Services
(“Vertical”)
ECSA / ECNA
ECSA / GCNA
Asia / WCSA (“L”)
Fourth Revolution
Asia / WCSA ”L”
Canal Traffic:
Transshipment:
Hapag Lloyd, Ashar 2015
Summary Observations
• Regional GDP (Venezuela; Ecuador) – No Change T/S
• Parallel Consolidation -- Modest Growth T/S
– AWP Diverts AWS/IM: Traffic UP; T/S No Change
– Diagonal Services: Traffic No Change; T/S Up; WCSA Hubs?
• Intersection Consolidation -- Massive Growth T/S -Long-Term (if ever)
• Special Factors
– Alliance Concentration (2M/Moin; O3/Kingston)
– Add/Eliminate Direct Calls (Cartagena, Houston, Veracruz,
Moin, Mariel)
– Add/Eliminate Specialized Services (CKHYE AWT; CMA PEX2)
Contrarian Views
• “Double digit jump in Panama transshipment activity as a
result of the opening of the expanded canal in 2016”
(Drewry)
• “(Expansion) will boost the need and demand for
transshipment and create opportunities for existing
Caribbean hubs and the development of new ones” (World
Bank)
• “Growth in transshipment is inevitable, competition will be
tough, Panama is key, Go for it” (Worley Parsons)
• “(Expansion) increases Panama Canal’s traffic by 15-20%
due to recovering Asia/N America trade, but will only result
in small growth (5%) in regional transshipment“ (Ashar)
TOC Americas 2015
Thank You!
Asaf Ashar
National Ports & Waterways Initiative, USA
Independent Consultant
www.asafashar.com