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Global Market Forecast
Flying by
Numbers
2015 2034
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∑
001
Flying by Numbers
“WE ARE FOCUSED ON OUR LONG-TERM FUTURE
MORE THAN EVER BEFORE.”
Fabrice Brégier CEO Airbus
Flying by Numbers
Introduction
For this year’s Global Market Forecast we have chosen the theme of
equations and numbers. It seemed appropriate as the economists
and data analysts working on Airbus’ forecasts spend much of
their day either searching for and evaluating new, complementary
and relevant sources of data; then trying to find ways to use these
numbers more effectively to improve the reliability and validity of our
analyses and forecasts. They rely daily on equations and ever more
capable software tools to achieve this.
But more than this, a key part of their work is to check and challenge
the methodologies used and the analyses produced against real
World behaviours of passengers and airlines alike. Their aim is to
identify a market-based vision of air transport over the next 20 years
backed up by rigorous data, clear graphics and industry insight.
The numbers resulting from our equations will in time become real
passengers and aircraft, and their worldwide flows will drive aviation
infrastructure and investment.
It may sound a little geeky to quote the philosopher and
mathematician Plato, but he got it right when he said “A good
decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers” Our aim is
to apply knowledge to numbers and through the GMF to share this
with you.
We hope that you find the 2015 Global Market Forecast informative
and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your
questions, challenges and suggestions help us advance towards
that goal. Don’t forget you can download our App in several formats
from tablet to smartphone. It complements the forecast and includes
our thoughts in an interactive format.
As usual this is best read on an aeroplane, perhaps taking advantage
of the quiet, smooth comfort of your next A380 flight. Enjoy!
002
003
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Demand for
passenger
aircraft
046
P.048 Aircraft Demand
Demand
by region
058
Executive
summary
004
Demand
for air travel
010
P.060 Asia-Pacific
P.066 Europe
P.072 North America
P.078 Middle East
P.084 Latin America & Caribbean
P.090 CIS
P.096 Africa
P.012 Economy
P.020 Market Drivers
Freighter
forecast
102
P.104 Air Freight
Network
and traffic
forecast
028
P.030 Network Development
P.038 Traffic Forecast
Summary &
methodology
110
P.113 Summary of results
P.118 Passenger methodology
P.124 Freight forecast methodology
004
Executive
summary
007
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
CONTEXT
The benefits of aviation reach more of the
World’s people every year, as wealth grows,
deregulation continues, particularly to and
from the World’s developing markets, and
Visa requirements and processes simplify.
As well as benefiting individuals, countries,
regions also profit. In Europe for example
ACI recently stated that aviation represents
4.1% of European GDP and nearly 12
million jobs. According to ICAO, some 3.2
billion passengers used air transport for
their business and tourism needs in 2014,
up approximately 5 per cent compared to
2013. Aircraft departures reached 33 million
globally during 2014, a record, surpassing
the 2013 figure. Solid global economic
growth and improving World trade helped
World scheduled passenger traffic (revenue
passenger-kilometres or RPKs) grow at a
rate of 5.9 per cent in 2014, this compared
to 5.5 per cent in 2013, above the long term
trend.
Demand is being met through more of latest
technology aircraft, and by airlines striving
to increase their efficiency by filling every
available seat, with average load factors
now close to an impressive 80%. On ground
this would be like seeing every car on the
road with four of their five seats filled. Airlines
continue to work with manufacturers to
use every available centimeter in the
aircraft to maximise operational efficiency
and revenues. All this whilst providing the
service that customers demand in terms of
schedules, comfort and ticket price. Airports
are also key, growing to meet origin and
destination demand, which for international
flights is relatively concentrated. Today,
forty seven Aviation Mega-cities focus over
90% of long-haul flights and nearly a million
passengers a day. Growing demand to these
cities generates its own challenges, with
thirty-nine of the forty-seven experiencing
various levels of congestion. Larger aircraft
including the A380 have been part of the
solution, freeing up frequencies to allow new
operations, and adding to airline efficiency
by lowering the cost per passenger flown.
It is forecast that aviation will continue to
grow, this being both an opportunity and a
challenge.
The challenge for manufacturers will be
to continue to reduce the environmental
impact of flights in the years to come, and
to give airlines the tools they need to meet
the demands of both their passengers and
stakeholders. The Airbus Global Market
Forecast is one of the tools Airbus uses to
meet this challenge, a piece of analysis used
to inform its day to day decision making,
from production rates to product policy
deliberations.
Airbus forecasters take the best macroeconomic and operational data and
combine it with a forecasting methodology
developed over 20 years, performing more
than 200 traffic flow forecasts, modelling
over 300,000 Origin and Destination (O&D)
city-pairs and analysing demand from nearly
800 individual airlines in order to deliver the
forecast.
DEMAND FOR MORE THAN 32,500 NEW AIRCRAFT
Passenger aircraft (≥100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (> 10 tons)
31,781
New
Deliveries
804
32,585
Passenger
Fleet
Remarketed
& stay
in service
3,968
11,834
Converted
1,552
Retired
13,135
Freighter
Fleet
1,301
008
009
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
HIGHLIGHTS
The ability to effortlessly fly anywhere in the
World is often taken for granted; it is only if we
tries to imagine the World without aviation
that its impact can start to be realised. Over
the next 20 years our forecast suggests that
more people from the emerging economies
will want take the benefits of aviation.
Asia-Pacific is often cited, but people
including those from Africa, and Latin
America will also have greater access to
flying both economically and physically.
When they fly they will likely be most familiar
with single aisle aircraft types like the A320
family and the 737. Over the next 20 years
70% of new deliveries will be for this class
of aircraft. Long-haul travel will continue to
be characterised by larger aircraft like the
A330, A350 and A380. Twin-aisle types
will represent a quarter of all new deliveries,
but 44% of their value. VLAs like the A380
have the smallest share of deliveries at 5%.
These aircraft are very visible today at the
World’s greatest airports, and in the future
will continue to provide the most efficient
way of connecting the “big points”.
2015-2024
2025-2034
2015-2034
SHARE OF 2015-2034
NEW DELIVERIES
460
657
1,117
3%
4,986
7,610
12,596
39%
577
711
1,288
4%
EUROPE
3,375
2,990
6,365
20%
LATIN AMERICA
1,111
1,399
2,510
8%
MIDDLE EAST
1,174
1,187
2,361
7%
32,600
NORTH AMERICA
2,972
2,572
5,544
17%
GMF 2015-2034
FREIGHTERS
463
341
804
2%
15,118
17,467
32,585
100%
AFRICA
ASIA/PACIFIC
CIS
New Deliveries
WORLD
NEW AIRCRAFT DEMAND PASSENGER AND FREIGHTERS
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
TRAFFIC
Since 2001, despite facing two of the
worst downturns the commercial aviation
industry has experienced, traffic measured
in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK’s)
has grown a remarkable 85%. The factors
which have led to this increase, including
the emerging economies, tourism, and
liberalisation, will continue to drive traffic
growth. RPKs are expected to double again
in the next fifteen years, and grow 145% to
15.2 trillion RPKs by 2034. Traffic to and from
the more mature markets is forecast to grow,
with flows such as Western Europe to the US
growing 1.7 times over the next 20 years.
The Domestic Chinese flow is expected
to become the largest single traffic flow,
growing nearly four times over this period,
with the demographics and density of
traffic requiring ever larger aircraft to meet
the demand. International long-haul traffic
is expected to grow faster than domestic
and international short-haul traffic, with its
annual growth rate 4.7% and its overall share
of traffic growing to 45%.
25,000
22,900
20,000
15,000
DELIVERIES AND THE FLEET
10,000
8,100
5,000
1,600
0
Single-aisle
Twin-aisle
Very Large Aircraft
% units
70%
25%
5%
% value
45%
43%
12%
SINGLE-AISLE: 70% OF UNITS; WIDE-BODIES: 55% OF VALUE
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
Total new deliveries, both passenger and
freighter aircraft are expected to be close to
32,600 aircraft. Nearly 14,000 passenger
aircraft will be retired or converted to freighter,
to be replaced with more fuel efficient latest
generation aircraft. Most deliveries are
forecast for Asia-Pacific with 39% of the
demand, or nearly 12,600 aircraft. North
America and Europe, more mature markets,
will still require 11,900 aircraft (37% of total
deliveries) to meet their airlines’ needs.
Combining replacements and the passenger
aircraft needed to meet forecast traffic
growth, the fleet is expected to more than
double to more than 35,000 aircraft by 2034.
010
011
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Demand for
air travel
012
013
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
ALTHOUGH LEVELS OF GROWTH REMAIN DIFFERENT,
THE REBOUND IS YET TO HAPPEN IN EMERGING ECONOMIES
WHEREAS IT STARTED IN EARLY 2013 IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES
Sources: IHS Economics, Airbus
* Gross Domestic Product (year-over-year quarterly evolution)
10%
Advanced economies
Real GDP*(%)
8%
Economy
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Emerging economies
Real GDP*(%)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2005
2006
2007
2008
The World’s economy increased by +2.6%
in 2014, up from +2.4% in 2013 and +2.3%
in 2012. 2014’s “soft” economic growth
resulted from the combination of slightly
better than expected growth in most
developed markets (especially in the US)
together with disappointing growth in
some emerging economies. This trend
is expected to continue in 2015, as the
economic growth rebound in emerging
economies is yet to happen in a meaningful
way, a rebound which started in early 2013,
in advanced economies.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
014
015
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
DESPITE “SOFT” ECONOMIC GROWTH AFTER THE 2008/2009
FINANCIAL CRISIS, PASSENGER AIR TRANSPORTATION GROWTH
REMAINED IMPRESSIVE
Air traffic growth to real GDP economic growth ratio
Air traffic (RPKs)
Sources: ICAO, IHS Economics, Airbus
Real GDP
Growth (%)
14%
12%
10%
Private
consumption
8%
6%
It is also interesting to note that the regular
decrease of the air transport and economic
growth ratio was suspended beyond
2010, and has in fact increased up to 2.1
since the beginning of the decade. It is
still too early to draw firm conclusions,
but this evolution could mean additional
potential for the air transport development.
One of the explanations could be
the recent development of Low Cost
Carriers now common globally and helping
to stimulate air transport.
70’s: 3.1%
4%
10’s: 2.1%
80’s: 1.9%
2%
90’s: 1.8%
58%
OF THE WORLD
ECONOMY BY 2034
00’s: 1.4%
0%
TO SUPPORT
-2%
-4%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
However, the fundamentals are in place for
the global economy to pick up in the short
term, up to +2.8% in 2015 and 3.2% in
2016. Lower oil price, whilst maintained, and
additional monetary stimulus (particularly in
Japan, Europe and China) will not only
support growth, but could provide the basis
for some upside surprises.
Last year provided a much more supportive
demand environment for the air freight
market thanks to improvements in business
confidence and a pick-up in World trade
growth. This led to encouraging overall
freight traffic results in 2014:
Over the long term, the global economy is
expected to grow steadily thanks mainly to
more aggressive businesses investment,
which itself is fuelled by accumulated pentup consumption demand in developed and
emerging economies.
As a result, the pace of growth is projected to
be strong over the next 20 years, averaging
+3.2% yearly average for the real GDP and
+4.3% for the international trade.
In 2014, passenger air transportation
has again shown its resilience despite the
Eurozone’s soft recovery, ongoing Middle East
and North Africa uncertainties, the UkraineRussia crisis and high oil prices throughout
the year (Brent yearly average at $99/bll, down
“only” 8% compared with 2013):
• increase in freight load factor estimated
around 1 percentage point in 2014 (up
to 46%)
• +6% estimated yearly traffic growth
(in RPKs)
•
i ncrease in passenger load factor
estimated at 0.3 percentage point in
2014 reaching the record level of 80%,
on average globally, and up to 85% for
domestic US
2005
2010
2015
Air transport
and economic
growth ratio
WORLD ECONOMY GROWTH MORE AND MORE
RELIANT ON PRIVATE CONSUMPTION GROWTH
Sources: IHS Economics, Airbus
* Compound Annual Growth Rate
• +4.5% yearly traffic growth (in FTKs)
Many factors can explain the strong
development of the air transport over the
last 40 years (more liberalisation, ticket price
reduction…) but the most important has
been economic growth which has allowed
air transport to become affordable for many
more people. As a result, one interesting
ratio to consider is the relationship between
economic growth and air transport growth
or simply put: what percentage of air
transport growth comes from what level of
economic growth? Looking at this evolution
over time, it appears this ratio has changed,
from 3.1 in the seventies (every percent of
economic growth translated on average
throughout the decade into +3.1 percent
of passenger air transport growth), down to
1.9 in the eighties, 1.8 in the nineties and 1.4
from the beginning of this century.
Another explanation could be the growing
reliance of World economic growth to its
private consumption component. World
private consumption is expected to grow
at a +3.1% compound average growth
rate over the next 20 years. This means it
would represent 58% of the World economy
by 2034, this compares to 27% for fixed
investment and 15% for government
consumption.
Billion real $2010
3.1%
IN THE 70’s
80,000
History
1.9%
Forecast
70,000
IN THE 80’s
60,000
1.8%
IN THE 90’s
+2.6%
50,000
1.4%
IN THE 00’s
2.1%
IN THE 10’s
+3.1%
CAGR*
2000
2014
CAGR*
2014
2034
40,000
30,000
World private
consumption
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2034
016
017
Flying by Numbers
In the past decade, a number of emerging
economies have enjoyed rapid economic
growth, supported by exports and
investment.
As international trade proliferated in the
late 1990s into the new century, these
economies positioned themselves as
labour-intensive destinations because
of their low labour costs and abundant
workforces, providing a competitive
advantage in becoming successful exportled economies.
The subsequent high level of accumulated
capital derived from exports has been
invested in infrastructure improvements,
spurring greater industrialisation and
increased productivity. China is often cited
as the prime example of this export-led
growth model, a model that has successfully
contributed to an average annual GDP
growth rate above 10% for the last decade.
Flying by Numbers
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION TO BECOME A MORE
IMPORTANT GROWTH DRIVER IN EMERGING MARKETS
Emerging economies
Share of private consumption (%)
100%
90%
History
Forecast
80%
70%
60%
50%
43%
40%
31%
30%
Emerging
markets
Advanced economies
Sources: IHS Economics, Airbus
20%
10%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2034
TO REPRESENT
43%
OF THE WORLD PRIVATE
CONSUMPTION BY 2034,
UP FROM
31% CURRENTLY
But emerging economies have not been
immune from the difficulties facing the
global economy. Since the financial crisis
in 2008-09 and the subsequent European
debt crisis, the consumer demand on which
these economies depend has substantially
weakened and the sluggish global economy
has produced a downward pressure on the
exporters in the emerging markets.
This reliance on consumer demand
in the developed markets and the
inherent vulnerability to any slump in
mature economies are why emerging
economies are seeking to move away
from an export and investment-led
growth model to one focusing on
greater domestic spending. Policy
makers in the emerging markets
are well aware that the conventional
export-led growth model used by
Asian economies in the past is unlikely
to be sustainable over the longer-term
and that economic growth increasingly
needs to come from domestic
consumption.
The weight of the contribution of
private consumption contribution to
the economies of emerging countries
is still quite low in relative terms.
For example, China’s household
consumption accounts for just 36% of
its GDP, while household consumption
in the US, UK, Germany and Japan
accounts respectively for 68%, 64%,
55% and 60% of GDP. Policy makers in
emerging markets have already taken
steps to adjust their growth models
toward more domestic consumptioncentric economies. As a consequence
of this rebalancing, it is expected that
private consumption in emerging
markets will rise from 31% of the World
private consumption currently to an
estimated 43% by 2034.
Recent oil price declines (oil price
halved in the six months from July
2014 to January 2015) have given
consumers more purchasing power,
which is expected to directly stimulate
short term private consumption. This
new oil price reality materialised due
to the continued success of US tight
oil production, OPEC’s position, and
“soft” global economic growth hence
refined product demand. Oil prices
could potentially remain at the current
relatively low levels for some time,
providing geopolitical tensions remain
manageable. In the very long term, the
view that high oil prices are necessary
to incentivise new development and
replace “cheap” conventional oil
production declines remains part of oil
price’s outlook.
SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWN
Sources: IHS Energy, Oxford Economics
Brent oil price (US$ per bbl. in constant 2015 $s)
160
140
IHS Energy
History
Forecast
Oxford Economies (2015)
120
2014
100
2015
Oil prices
80
IN THE LONG-RUN,
GROWING OIL DEMAND
AND LIMITED RESERVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PRICES BACK TO THEIR
TREND LEVELS
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
018
019
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
The plunge in oil prices represents a transfer
from oil producer countries to oil consumers
(estimated at $2.1 trillion) and is expected
to support a long-awaited acceleration in
global economic growth, raising real GDP
growth by about a half percentage point
in 2015. The big beneficiaries include
the United States, the Eurozone, Japan,
China, India and many oil-importing countries
of Asia, Central Europe and East Africa.
However, lower oil prices translate into
revenue losses for oil companies and
governments in oil-producing countries. The
net positive impact on the global economy
reflects the tendency of oil-importing
countries to spend a larger share of their
“windfall” than oil-exporting countries.
The end result will be a pickup in global
economic growth from 2.6% in 2014 up to
3% in 2015.
Oil
prices
By 2034
WEALTH INCREASINGLY DISPERSED WORLD-WIDE
Sources: IHS Economics, Airbus
* on a country basis => each point represents one country
1994
70%
DECREASE COULD
STIMULATE WORLD REAL
GDP GROWTH BY ABOUT A
HALF PERCENTAGE POINT
IN 2015
OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION EXPECTED
TO REPRESENT MORE THAN
30%
OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH
(TO COMPARE WITH
LESS THAN
10% 20 YEARS AGO)
2015 real GDP growth (%)
3.5
Range uncertainty
2014
2034
World population* (%)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
World GDP*(%)
80%
90% 100%
World traffic*(%)
3.0
By 2034
Range uncertainty
AIR TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY DISPERSED WORLD-WIDE
Sources: IHS Economics, Airbus
* on a country basis => each point represents one country
1994
2.5
70%
OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION EXPECTED
TO REPRESENT ALMOST
2.0
$80-$90
$60-$70*
$40-$50*
Brent oil price
THE LOWER THE OIL PRICE IN 2015, THE HIGHER
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
Sources: IHS Economics, Airbus
*IHS baseline for 2015 real GDP growth
2015 airline
profitability
As a consequence of an improving economic outlook in
conjunction with lower oil prices, airline profitability is expected
to improve again in 2015 in all regions as shown into last IATA
June 2015 “Economic performance of the industry”:
• $50.1 billion record operating profits expected in 2015, up from
$33.9 billion in 2014 (and $25.3 in 2013)
• 6.9% operating margin up from 4.6% in 2014 (and 3.5% in 2013)
7%
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
1985
1990
1995
2000
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
WHICH
CORRESPONDS
Airline profitability, looking good
1980
10% 20 YEARS AGO)
World population* (%)
100%
90%
80%
70%
US$50 BILLION
50
1975
OF THE WORLD’S TRAFFIC
(TO COMPARE WITH
LESS THAN
2034
EXPECTED TO REACH
TO A
OPERATING MARGIN
1970
30%
2014
2005
2010
2015 F
AIRLINE PROFITABILITY,
TIME FOR A NEW ERA?
Sources: ICAO, IATA, Airbus
The air transport industry has gone through
many “shocks” over time, economic (Asian
crisis in 1998, “subprime” crisis in 2008…),
geopolitical (oil crisis in 1973 and 1979,
gulf crisis in 1991, 9/11 in 2001…), climatic
(earthquake, tsunami or volcanic eruption…)
or pandemic (SARS in 2003, H1N1 swine
flu in 2009, Ebola in 2014). These “shocks”
impacted the economy and in some cases
people’s willingness to fly, hence an impact
on air traffic and airline results at local, regional
or worldwide levels. However, despite these
shocks, air transport has demonstrated its
extraordinary resilience over time, with none
of these events having long term impact. In
fact passenger air traffic has quadrupled
over the last 30 years, growing at a 5.3%
compound average growth rate since the
70’s. This has been possible thanks to the
development of emerging markets over time
and wealth becoming more evenly distributed
globally. Twenty years ago, 70% of the World’s
population represented less than 10% of the
global wealth. This has evolved to around
20% currently, this share is expected to reach
more than 30% over the next 20 years.
Air transport has become much more
diversified over time. Again twenty years ago,
70% of the World’s population accounted for
less than 10% of the World air traffic.
This has evolved to around 20% currently,
with this share expected to reach 30% over
the next 20 years.
Air transport is fortunate that its benefits and
structure have enabled it to weather these
difficult periods. But in addition to these, it
has been the people and the businesses
in the industry that have always managed
to find innovative ways to deliver airline
services, materials, parts, and aircraft to the
World, despite the challenges they faced, and
doubtless will continue to in the future.
020
021
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
USA
~650
DOMESTIC
>2 billion
Market
Drivers
China
~350
million
million
other Domestic
~1
billion
Almost 1/3 of the number
of passengers in the World
WORLD AIR
PASSENGER
TRAFFIC
>3 billion
INTERNATIONAL
TRAFFIC
>1billion
(round-trips)
Statistical discrepancy
and ‘excursionists’
NUMBER OF
INTERNATIONAL
TOURISTS >1billion
Tourists travelling
by air ~500 million
~70%
Short-haul
~30%
(>50% of total)
~30% ~15% ~50%
VFR
Long-haul
Business
Leisure
MOBILITY IN 2014
Tourist: overnight-stay visitor
Long-haul: GC distance > 2,000 NM
Sources: UNWTO, Sabre GDD, OAG, RITA, CAAC
Air traffic forecasters use different types of
indicators to explain how air traffic growth
has been achieved:
CONNECTIVITY
• Economic, as described in the previous
chapter.
• Demographic: population growth, urbanisation and middle class development in
emerging countrie​s.
AIR
TRAFFIC
DEMOGRAPHY
ECONOMY
• Greater connectivity between people/
regions: efficient mobility, network development and airports capacity increase,
indirectly stimulating the economy
through infrastructure investments and
the business they attract.
022
023
Flying by Numbers
More than 3 billion scheduled and nonscheduled passengers took a flight in 2014,
almost half of the World’s population. Around
two billion of them took a domestic flight, led
by the USA (~650 million) and China (~350
million), together representing almost one
third of global passengers. In addition, more
than a billion passengers flew internationally.
The internationalisation of air transport
has been made possible by a greater co‑
operation between nations, illustrated by the
number of bilateral air service agreements
between countries, which has gradually
increased to more than 2,500 Worldwide by
2014.
Flying by Numbers
Internationalisation has also occurred
at the global level. International long-haul
(>=2,000 NM) traffic has grown faster than
short-haul over the last ten years, to reach
30% of all international passengers.
Number of bilateral air services agreements in the World
3,000
2,500
2,000
The United Nations World Tourism
Organisation (UNWTO) recorded more than
a billion international tourists in 2014, more
than 50% of these carried by plane. UNWTO
classifies the purpose of tourist trips in three
main categories: 1,500
1,000
500
0
• Holidays, recreation and other forms of
leisure (52% of international tourists).
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
LIBERALISATION AND GLOBALISATION HAVE DRIVEN WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH
Sources: ICAO WASA database, Airbus
BILATERAL AIR SERVICE
AGREEMENTS BETWEEN
MORE THAN
350
IMPACT OF THE CHINA-ASEAN AIR TRANSPORT AGREEMENTON THE NUMBER OF SERVICES
LCC: AirAsia, Cebu Pacific, Citilink, Jetstar, PAL Express, Scoot, Spring Airlines, TigerAir
Sources: OAG (September data), Airbus
Regularly served airport-pairs between China and ASEAN
170 COUNTRIES,
Number of air passengers (Origin-Destination) (million)
Migrants (million)
70
300
60
250
50
200
40
150
30
100
20
50
10
0
• Business and professional purposes
(14%).
0
0
1,000
3,000
Number of air
passengers (left axis)
• Religious reasons, health treatment and/
or visiting friends and relatives (27%).​
More than
2,550
Distance distribution of international migrants and air passengers in the World, in 2014
5,000
7,000
9,000 11,000 13,000 >15,000
Origin-destination distance (km)
Migrant stock
(right axis)
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MIGRANTS AND THE NUMBER OF AIR PASSENGERS
Visiting friends and relatives (VFR), a travel
category in its own right, is often thought
as particularly resistant to crises, simply
because people like to meet the people
closest to them in person. Data analysis
also confirms a large correlation between
international migration and the number of air
passengers in the World. ​
Sources: UNPD, Sabre GDD, Airbus
The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) stated there are more than 230
million international migrants in the World, which represents around 3% of the
World population. Other studies suggest this number could be even higher. A
recent Gallup survey, conducted in 154 countries between 2010 and 2012, has
estimated the potential number of permanent adult migrants in the World, at about
13% of the World population.
ALMOST 15,000 POSSIBLE
COUNTRY-PAIRS
Evolution of trade, tourism and migration
7%
At the regional level, higher integration of
countries in parallel with the development of
short-haul airlines have stimulated air traffic
development. This is shown for example by
the multi-lateral agreements between China
and ASEAN in 2010, where the number of
airport-pairs between the two areas has
doubled in four years.
35%
18%
Share of international trade in World GDP (right axis)
16%
30%
14%
27%
52%
2009
25%
12%
Share of international tourists
in World Population (left axis)
10%
78 Airport-pairs
14%
15%
8%
LCC MARKET SHARE (ASK): 18%
6%
Share of international migrants
in World Population (left axis)
4%
Number of
airport-pairs
Leisure
VFR
2%
Business
Non-specified
0%
10%
5%
0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
DISTRIBUTION BY TRIP PURPOSE IN 2013
Sources: UNWTO, Airbus
GLOBALISATION FOR PEOPLE HAS NOT REACHED ITS FULL POTENTIAL
Migration data: only available are 1990, 2000, 2010, 2013. Extra/Interpolation for the other years.
Sources: UNWTO, UNPD, IHS Global Insight, Airbus
BETWEEN CHINA AND
ASEAN DURING 2009-2014
x2
20%
2014
156 Airport-pairs
LCC MARKET SHARE (ASK): 29%
The globalisation of human beings is not as complete as the globalisation of
merchandise and capital. Significant improvements in terms of international
mobility may be achieved in the future, to the benefit of countries’ economies and
air transport. As an example, the facilitation of visa procedures between China and
the USA has stimulated air passenger traffic between the two countries.
024
025
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
One variable that is used to describe aviation
growth is population. Not a surprise perhaps,
the more people there are the more potential
air passengers. Between 1950 and today,
the World’s population almost tripled, now
totaling more than seven billion people. Due
to a demographic boom, Asia-Pacific has
been the biggest contributor, accounting for
more than 50% of global population growth
between 1950 and 2010. Due to productivity
improvements in the agricultural sector
leading to a rural exodus in many countries,
but also more recently thanks to organic
growth of cities. Increasing urbanisation
has been observed globally over the last
Annual number of tourists between China and USA (million)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
70 years: 30% of the World’s population lived
in urban agglomerations in 1950, with more
than 50% today. In their baseline scenario,
analysts from the United Nations Population
Division expect global population to
increase by more than 30% to 2050;
growing at a slower pace than in the past, as
most of the regions have now started their
demographic transition. The only exception
to this rule is Africa, whose young and
quickly growing population will more than
double by 2050, reaching 2.4 billion, and
contributing 50% of the World’s population
growth between 2010 and 2050. They also
project urbanisation to continue, with two
thirds of the World’s population expected to
be living in urban agglomerations by 2050.
Asia-Pacific will remain the main contributor
as many of its countries have relatively low
levels of urbanisation today, accounting
for more than 50% of the World urban
population growth to 2050, followed by
Africa, contributing by more than 30%.
0.5
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
AVIATION MEGA-CITIES STILL ATTRACTIVE FOR MIGRANTS
Visitors from China
Visitors from USA
Net migration volume
(thousands)
Domestic and international migrants included.
Sources: Oxford Economics, Airbus
Non-immigrant visas issued
Share of
city population
A HIGH GROWTH IN NUMBER OF CHINESE VISITORS TO THE USA IN THE RECENT YEARS
Sources: UNWTO, US Department of State, Airbus
5%
350
300
The largest metropolises have become “global cities”, the traditional
destination for international migrants, and where international
community areas develop. Among the 91 current and future aviation
mega-cities, cities visited by more than 10,000 international longhaul (>=2,000 NM) air passengers per day, data shows that 80%
of them had positive net migration rates in 2014 (domestic and
international migration combined). Urban agglomerations are an
example of more efficient societies, provided negative externalities
such as congestion and pollution are efficiently managed: they
concentrate activities in a relatively small area, provide economies
of scale, lower transportation costs and enable the dissemination of
goods and services.
Visitors
from China
to the USA
x3
2009
-2012
4%
250
3%
200
2%
150
100
1%
50
0%
0
-1%
-50
-100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Net migration in current and future aviation mega-cities, in 2014
-2%
026
027
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Urbanisation will continue to accompany
air traffic growth. New potential air transport
consumers from the middle classes will
emerge from urban agglomerations, where
workers are able to earn higher wages.
Analysis of income distribution in aviation
mega-cities compared to the World average
confirm that the bigger the city, the larger the
potential for consumption.
Asia-Pacific
Africa
Latin America
Europe
Middle East
North America
Income distribution in selected areas
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CIS
THE WORLD’S POPULATION IS EXPECTED
TO REACH 9.5 BILLION IN 2050
Sources: UN Population Division, Airbus
World population evolution, by region (billion)
10
0
100 200 500 750 1,000 2,000 3,500 7,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
World average
8
Aviation mega-cities
THE BIGGER THE CITY, THE LARGER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSUMPTION
Share of total households earning more than each income threshold.
Aviation mega-city: receiving more than 10,000 international long-haul passengers daily
Sources: Oxford Economics, Airbus
6
Infrastructure rating* in andvanced and emerging regions (1=low, 10=high)
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
MORE THAN TWO THIRDS OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION WILL BE URBAN IN 2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
1998
2003
Advanced
Urban share
Sources: UN Population Division, Airbus
10
2010
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Urban
Rural
World population evolution and share of urban agglomeration evolution (billion)
2013
2018
Emerging
It is important to point out however, that
improvement in Air Traffic Management
(ATM) systems have, up until now, allowed
airports to surpass the theoretical 100%
capacity utilisation in the past and we believe
that advances in Air Traffic Management and
aircraft operations increasingly facilitated by
technology on board the aircraft over time
will also help.
*Based on 35 emerging and 25 advanced major countries
**Aggregating individual countries rating, weighting by GDP
Sources: EIU, Airbus
70%
8
60%
7
50%
6
40%
5
4
30%
3
20%
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Airports capacity* utilisation in 2011 and 2020
Maximum capacity utilisation
1
20
40
60
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 307
2
10%
1
0
1950
2011 capacity utilisation
2020 capacity utilisation
CONGESTION SLOWS THE PACE OF GROWTH AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
In the case of air transport, a lack of
good airport infrastructure has at times
prevented some cities from having access
to the full benefits brought by aviation, not
only emerging but also some advanced
countries. Airport modernisation will be
necessary to accommodate traffic growth
in a sustainable way. In a recent study,
Airbus estimated the airport capacity of
more than 300 selected airports in Europe
and in a number of emerging countries.
From this it could be seen that a significant
number of airports are already at more
than 60-70% of their maximum capacity,
already generating issues in terms of flight
scheduling, especially during peak hours.
Assuming that airport capacity remains the
same until 2020, the GMF forecasts that in
the region of 30 airports may surpass the
100% threshold, with 50 airports at more
than 80% of their capacity.
INFRASTRUCTURE QUALITY IN EMERGING COUNTRIES HAS INCREASED
80%
9
2008
High-quality telecommunications, transport
and energy infrastructure are necessary for
urban agglomerations to fully benefit from
the economic potential of urbanisation,
to efficiently harness globalisation and to
accommodate increasing international
mobility. While the infrastructure in emerging
markets is still lagging behind mature
markets, they are rapidly catching up. On a
scale from 1 (low quality) to 10 (high quality),
the rating of advanced countries has been
stable at around 9 over the last 15 years, the
rating of emerging countries increased from
4 in 1998 to 6 in 2013, and is expected to
reach 7 around 2020.
0%
2050
*2011 estimated capacity in more than 300 airports in several emerging countries and Europe
**Airports ranked by 2020 capacity utilisation
Sources: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
028
Network and
traffic forecast
031
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
DESPITE A MAJOR CRISIS IN 2008, AIRLINES
HAVE OFFERED MORE SERVICES* TO THEIR
CUSTOMERS
Note: as of September
*Service is defined as a new airport pair or a new
airline operating an existing airport pair
Sources: OAG, Airbus
Base 100 in 2004
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Network
Development
90
80
2004
ASKs: +57%
2006
Services: +31%
2008
2010
2012
2014
City pairs: +26%
More services
Over the past ten years air traffic has continued its strong growth. In
spite of the major financial crisis in 2008, available seats increased
by 57%. In 2014, the growth rate for passenger traffic was 6%, one
of the strongest periods of growth since the beginning of the decade.
SINCE 2004
MORE TRAFFIC, MORE SERVICES
+31%
To support the increase in demand, airlines around the World have
responded by developing their networks. Service was extended to
new airport pairs, and more airlines started flying on existing routes.
Combined, services offered to air travellers have expanded by 31
percent, nearly a third, since 2004.
Most of this growth has come from the 26 percent increase in the
number of city pairs connected by air, while additional airlines on
existing routes contributed five percent.
032
033
Flying by Numbers
2014-2034 NEW SERVICES
Source: Airbus
According to our forecast, by 2034, almost
8,700 new services will be offered to
passengers compared to today. These new
routes will represent 18% of total RPKs in
2034, with the majority of growth therefore
developing on today’s routes.
Flying by Numbers
034
NRT
SFO
ATL
IST
LAX
In parallel to the development of air services,
airlines are increasingly using larger aircraft.
Over the past ten years, the number of
seats per flight has grown by 20 percent,
the highest ten-year increase since the
seventies.
Average aircraft size varies greatly by an
airline’s region of domicile. Middle Eastern
carriers on average use the largest aircraft,
with an average 208 seats per flight. At the
other end of the spectrum with significant
domestic and intra-regional flying are North
and Central America with 102 and 88 seats
respectively.
133
C.I.S.
130
Latin America
122
Africa
120
Pacific
102
North America
0
50
100
AIRCRAFT SIZE IS DIFFERENT FROM REGION TO REGION
150
200
250
Seats per flights
SIN
FRA
LHR
MSP PER
DTW
YVR JED ZRH
MUC
MEL
EZE
VIE
DOH
IAH
CDG
DFW
EWR
CAN
1,000
AUH
CKG
FLL
SAN
HEL
HGH
KMG
DPS
CPH
DUB
MXP
AKL
YUL
GIG
LAS
BOS
DME
JNB
SVO
IAD
TPE
SEA
OSL
PTY
RUH
PMI
PHX
LGA
BCN
PEK
DXB
MEX
LGW
MNL
CKG
DEL
5,500
DEN
10,000
MONTHLY LANDINGS AT TOP 100 AIRPORTS
Notes: Square size: ASKs
Square colour: nr of landings per runway
Sources: OAG (September 2014), Airbus
Airport
congestion
x2
10,000
NORTH AMERICAN
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CLT
MIA
Middle East
aircraft size
88
Central America
JFK
HKG
MORE TRAFFIC,
BIGGER AIRCRAFT
148
Europe
BRU
PHL
154
People Republic of China
KIX
URC
CAI
SYD
SZX
HNL
KUL
MCO
SCL
ORD
ORY
MAN
LIM
ICN
SHA
SGN
HND
LIS
BOM
SEATS PER FLIGHT
YYZ
CTU
XIY
PVG
MAD
TLV
BKK
GRU
DUS
+20%
155
Indian Sub-continent
AMS
SINCE 2004
183
Asia
Bigger aircraft
BNE
208
Middle East
ARN
Flying by Numbers
BQG
Flying by Numbers
FCO
035
MONTHLY LANDINGS
PER RUNWAY AT LONDON
HEATHROW
The trend towards larger aircraft is a result
of airline efforts to become more productive
through the transportation of passengers at
a lower cost per seat. Increasingly, it is also
a question of congestion, as more airports
reach their limits in terms of slot capacity
and air traffic management also becomes a
constraint. At these airports, an increase in
traffic is only possible by using larger aircraft
in the short to medium term. For example
at Heathrow, one of the busiest airport in
the World, there was an average 10,000
monthly landings per runway in 2014.
Note: as of September 2014
Sources: OAG, Airbus
AVIATION MEGA-CITIES, BIG TODAY, BIGGER TOMORROW
In 2014, five more urban centres became
Aviation Mega-Cities – aviation hubs with
more than 10,000 long-haul passengers
daily. The largest is London, with 120,000
passengers – the only city today handling
more than 100,000 long-haul passengers.
Dubai, the main hub of the Middle East is
second largest, with 98,000 passengers.
However, 20 years from now, the ten largest
aviation mega-cities will have daily traffic of
over 100,000. Together, these ten cities will
transport 1.5 million long-haul passengers
each day.
Four out of the five largest aviation megacities today are in the “advanced” World. In
spite of lower growth compared to emerging
countries, their traffic is expected to double
– keeping them, together with Dubai, at the
top of the list in 2034.
The next five cities are all in Asia. The largest
Chinese hubs, Shanghai and Beijing
will handle four times more traffic and it is
estimated that they will become larger than
London today. In 2034, there will be a total
of 91 aviation mega-cities, almost twice as
many as in 2014. Over four million long-haul
travellers will travel to, from, or through these
cities every day.
036
037
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
2014
AVIATION
MEGA-CITIES
2034
MORE PASSENGERS, MORE AVIATION MEGA-CITIES
Source: Airbus
10,000
230,000
038
039
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
PASSENGER TRAFFIC
A major enabler for economic development, air transport is also
robust and traditionally recovers quickly following downturns.
Due to the value people place on its benefits it is also a growth
industry. Measured in RPKs, passenger traffic has increased by a
third since the 2008 financial crisis, with an average annual growth
rate of 5.8% over the last five years. Momentum continued in 2014,
with traffic increasing by 5.9%, well above the long term trend.
Traffic
Forecast
Air transport is
a growth market
62%
GROWTH OVER THE LAST
TEN YEARS
AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS
Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometer
World annual traffic (trillion RPK)
6.0
Oil
Crisis
Oil
Crisis
Gulf
Crisis
Asian
Crisis
9/11 SARS
Financial
Crisis
5.0
62%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999 2001 2003
2007
2011
2014
040
041
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
GLOBAL TRENDS
16
Passenger air traffic has doubled every 15
years since the early eighties. While the
World endured various crisis episodes,
difficult periods for the industry and those
in it, the long term growth trend was
quickly re-established. Today, solid growth
drivers for the air transport industry are in
place, with at its forefront the economic
dynamism of emerging countries. With
this underlying strength, demand is set to
continue and is even expected to double
again in the next 15 years. The Airbus 20
year forecast shows an expected average
annual growth rate of 4.6%. This number
is the result of a strong first decade at a
5.2% average growth rate, with a slightly
lower rate for the second decade, at 4.0%.
However, this second decade still delivers
nearly 25% more new traffic in absolute
terms than the first 10 years.
The growth of international traffic will
be slightly higher than the growth on
intra-regional and domestic flows.
As a result, international long-haul traffic will
still represent the largest share of the demand
for air travel, accounting for 45% of the
World RPKs.
2014-2034
AAGR
World annual traffic (trillion RPK)
ICAO
total traffic
Air Traffic
Forecast
Airbus
GMF 2015
International
Short-Haul
+4.5%
14
23%
12
AIR TRAFFIC WILL
GROW AT AN AVERAGE
ANNUAL RATE OF
10
4.6%
Domestic
+4.5%
32%
OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS
Long-Haul
demand leads
the market
INTERNATIONAL LONG-HAUL
TRAFFIC WILL CONTINUE
TO REPRESENT ABOUT
45%
OF THE WORLD RPKs IN
THE NEXT 20 YEARS
8
24%
6
International
Long-Haul
+4.7%
32%
4
45%
2
44%
TRAFFIC WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS
Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometer
16
0
2002
ICAO
total traffic
15
13
12
11
10
2034
INTERNATIONAL LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC WILL STILL REPRESENT
THE LARGEST SHARE OF TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE
World annual traffic (trillion RPK)
14
2014
Sources: ICAO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 2015
Long-haul: O&D distance >2000 NM
Airbus
GMF 2015
2014-2024
2014-2034
AAGR
Share of the World traffic by type of flow (RPKs)
+5.2%
100%
2024-2034
+4.0%
90%
2014-2034
80%
32%
+4.6%
Advanced - Emerging
34%
+5.0%
Advanced - Advanced
30%
+2.6%
70%
9
60%
8
50%
43%
7
EMERGING ECONOMIES
DRIVING DEMAND GROWTH
Over the next twenty years, whilst traffic to
and from the “advanced” aviation markets
will continue to grow, traffic to and from
today’s emerging markets will grow strongly
both in terms of actual traffic and its share.
In 2034, more than 70% of the RPKs will
be flown from, to and between emerging
regions.
EMERGING REGIONS WILL
DRIVE WORLD TRAFFIC
GROWTH
40%
6
Air traffic will double
in the next 15 years
Air traffic has doubled
every 15 years
5
TRAFFIC FROM / TO / WITHIN
EMERGING REGIONS WILL
ACCOUNT FOR
30%
4
20%
3
25%
10%
Emerging- Emerging
36%
+6.6%
1
0
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2014
EMERGING REGIONS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGEST SHARE OF ORIGIN
AND DESTINATION TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
OF WORLD RPKs
2034
2
0%
70%
2034
042
043
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Regional share of annual traffic (RPK)
NEW MARKET STRUCTURE
Relative convergence theory applies
perfectly: the propensity to travel in
emerging regions will progressively catch
up with advanced economies and market
size between the regions will converge
towards the demographic share between
regions. The pace of this process depends
on the economic performance and the
level of liberalisation in emerging regions.
Unsurprisingly, Asia-Pacific will become the
largest market by 2034, responsible for 40%
of the World RPKs.
41%
Asia-Pacific
leading growth
LARGE MARKETS ARE
FLOURISHING
In 2034, sixteen out of the twenty largest
origin and destination traffic flows, will involve
emerging regions. Domestic PRC traffic will
become the largest market, growing nearly
four fold by 2034. Some smaller markets will
experience staggering growth: the domestic
Indian market for example will grow nearly
six fold over the next twenty years.
2004
HALF OF THE 2034 TOP
TWENTY TRAFFIC FLOWS
WILL INVOLVE ASIA-PACIFIC
DOMESTIC PRC WILL BE THE LARGEST O&D TRAFFIC FLOW IN 2034
2014
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
2034
Annual O&D traffic per flow (billion RPK)
51%
x3.8
Domestic PRC
x1.4
Domestic USA
x1.7
Intra Western Europe
x1.7
Western Europe - USA
x3.7
Domestic Asia Emerging
2014
Western Europe Middle East
x2.4
Domestic India
x5.8
Indian Subcontinent Middle East
Asia-Pacific
Latin America
Middle East
62%
Africa
CIS
North America
Europe
EVOLVING STRUCTURE OF
THE AIR TRANSPORT MARKET
Sources: Sabre GDD, Airbus
2034
x3.4
PRC - USA
x4.1
Western Europe South America
Asia Emerging Western Europe
x2.2
x2.4
South America - USA
x2.8
Domestic Brazil
x2.9
Western Europe - PRC
x3.0
Indian Subcontinent USA
Central Europe Western Europe
Australia & New Zealand Western Europe
x3.8
x2.4
Middle East - USA
x4.1
Sub Sahara Africa Western Europe
Asia Advanced Asia Emerging
x2.5
x2.5
x3.1
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
044
045
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
ABOUT THE GMF
TRAFFIC FORECAST
GMF long
term validity
GMF 2000 LONG TERM
FORECAST IS STILL
IN LINE WITH OUR LATEST
FORECAST
LCCs will
continue
capturing
market share
The aim of the Airbus GMF is to forecast the long-term evolution
of the demand for air transport. Short-term downside and upside
market variations due to potential future crisis episodes or favourable
conditions are not directly visible in our results. However, we base
our analysis on extensive historical data, which includes all of
the difficulties experienced in the past. As a result of this and the
methodology adopted, the long term trend we forecast in 2000
is in line with our latest forecast, despite the turbulence faced in
2001 and 2009. Clearly the traffic and revenues lost during these
difficult periods are an issue for the industry, and businesses need
to make sometimes difficult decisions to get through them effectively.
However, demand for air travel is such that traffic has been seen to
recover to the long term trend, even to that projected more than a
decade ago.
In 2034,
LCCS WILL FLY
21%
OF THE WORLD RPKS
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
12
LCC TRAFFIC GROWTH
Low cost carrier (LCCs) expansion is
another aspect of the markets structure
that will evolve. Low cost carriers are today
present at a global level, at times with
differing models and market penetration
levels. Simple fleet structure, fast turnaround
time, rationalised structural costs and a
focus on ancillary revenues, enable LCCs to
acquire market share and importantly open
new routes and markets. LCC presence
in a market stimulates growth. Another
independent variable that can be used in
forecasting traffic is airline yield, which in turn
is driven by ticket price, a key tool in the LCC
competitive tool box.
At a worldwide level, the rapid expansion
of LCCs will potentially result in a market
share of 21% in 2034, four points above
the current the level. LCC penetration is the
highest in the intra-regional market in Europe
(nearly 40% of ASKs), domestic markets in
Emerging Asian countries (nearly 60% of
ASKs) and domestic markets in the Indian
Sub‑continent (nearly 65% of ASKs).
Low cost carriers are also now beginning to
expand in Africa and the Middle East.
Global & Major Network
LCC
Regional and Affiliate
Small Network
10
Charter
LOW-COST CARRIERS EXPECTED TO BE THE FASTEST GROWING
AIRLINES BETWEEN 2014 AND 2034
Sources: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2015
8
Share of World RPK traffic by airline type
1%
6
4% 4%
4% 4%
21%
4
17%
2%
2
73%
2014
2034
0
70%
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
DESPITE “UPS AND DOWN”, GMF TRAFFIC FORECASTS TRACK
THE LONG TERM TREND
Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Historical
GMF 2015
2022
2024
GMF 2008
GMF 2000
2026
046
Demand for
passenger
aircraft
048
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Average capacity per flight, aircraft above 100 seats
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2014
AVERAGE AIRCRAFT CAPACITY PER FLIGHT HAS INCREASED OVER TIME
Sources: Airbus, OAG
September month for each year
Yearly offered seats per aircraft
Aircraft
Demand
250
Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (thousands)
200
150
+46%
100
50
0
1980
Once passenger traffic demand has been
determined through network development
models and detailed traffic forecasts, this
must be turned into a forecast of the types
of aircraft, by seat segment, which will be
needed to meet passenger and airline
demands over the coming years. Other
dynamic factors also must be considered
these include aircraft replacement trends,
developments in productivity (seats, speed
and utilisation). These trends will help to
determine aircraft demand. The good
news is the historical trend in these areas
have been positive helping to make the
civil aviation industry increasingly efficient,
important as the industry continues to grow
in the coming years. Average aircraft size
for example is increasing, simply taking the
average capacity per flight over time, aircraft
size has grown on average from 139 seats
to over 170 seats since the early 1970’s.
A second period of average aircraft size
growth is beginning with today’s backlog,
airlines switching to larger variants from
that originally ordered and manufacturer
product development decisions, making it
clear the future is larger aircraft from singleaisle types to twin-aisles. Whilst there will be
new route opportunities, indeed thousands
of opportunities are indicated from our
analysis, by 2034, 70% of the global network
growth and 80% of traffic will be centred on
today’s routes.
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
Load factors have grown 17 percentage
points over the same period to a yearly
average of almost 80%, how many cars do
you see with four of the five car seats filled.
Airport connectivity has almost doubled,
airport movements have more than doubled.
Global access to aviation has never been
greater. Whilst all in the industry are acutely
aware that a balance must be met between
the socio economic benefits of aviation
verses the environmental cost, the more
than 30% reduction in fuel burn per ASK in
the last 15 years is evidence of or focus on
meeting our widely stated environmental
commitments for the future.
Load factors
85%
World passenger load factors (%)
80%
75%
+17pp
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
MORE PRODUCTIVE SEATS…
Sources: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
049
050
Flying by Numbers
100%
Flying by Numbers
Share of global seats offered
THE IMPORTANCE OF
THE “BIG POINTS”
It is expected that long-haul traffic will further
concentrate around Aviation Mega-Cities.
For example, since 2009 more than 80% of
the total traffic to/from/within Latin America
has passed through just 10 airports and in
Asia-Pacific the top 20 largest airports are
responsible for almost 50% of the total traffic.
90%
Wide-Bodies operates 10%
of seats below 2,000nm
80%
At a global level today there are 47 Aviation
Mega-Cities (AMCs) who account for
more than 90% of long-haul passengers.
As a result Very Large Aircrafts (VLA) like
the A380 have become a common tool
to relieve the effect of increasing airport
congestion.
70%
60%
AMC to AMC
TO REPRESENT
50%
Single-Aisle
77%
Wide-Body
40%
OF ALL LONG HAUL
TRAFFIC
Aviation Mega-City to
Aviation Mega-City
30%
Single-Aisle operates 15%
of seats over 2,000nm
20%
Aviation Mega-City
to Secondary City
Secondary City to
Secondary City
Monthly international long-haul passengers (Millions)
1,800
10%
1,600
Sector Length (nm)
0%
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
1,400
6000
WIDE-BODIES OFFER 10% OF SEATS OPERATED BELOW 2,000NM
1,200
Note: September 2014
Sources: OAG, Airbus
1,000
800
AIRCRAFT SUPPLY
Having defined demand, most forecasters
must then also consider supply, i.e. what
aircraft type will actually meet this demand.
This view is commercially sensitive as it
defines an organisations view on market
share and even potential new product
offerings. Due to this sensitivity this view
is purely internal, it is clear that the level of
new product development seen in the last
10 years, the quality of those products and
their respective significant backlogs will
mean that in large part demand in the next
20 years will be met by these products and
or their derivatives, either as new deliveries
or “second hand” re-marketed aircraft.
Single-aisle and widebody products cover
a staggering spectrum in turns of both
capacity options and range of operation.
Manufacturers have continued to strive to
meet the individual requirements of airlines
and their passengers. For the singleaisle these aircraft range from 100 to 240
seats, with the A321 offering this highest
seating configuration, with the possibility
on the range side of flying 4000nm. For the
wide-body types there is operational overlap
with the single-aisle, with lower seating limits
around 200 seats increasing to 600 or even
higher with the A380.
600
This overlap has developed as the capability
of both segments of today’s aircraft have
grown, leaving already seamless coverage
between the single-aisle and widebody
markets.
200
400
0
2014
Long-haul, flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
2024
2034
Sources: Sabre (September 2014 data), Airbus
051
052
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
These Aviation Mega-Cities not only
represent centres of air traffic but are also
significant centres of wealth. According to
IHS Global Insight, GDP per capita in AMCs
is four times larger than the World average.
This difference is even more evident within
emerging economies where urbanisation is
a key element of growth.
053
Aviation Mega-Cities a focus for Wealth
CIS
+300%
North America
+25%
Europe
+60%
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
+160%
Latin America
+90%
% Difference AMCs vs regional average
THE BIGGER THE CITY,
THE WEALTHIER THE POPULATION
Sources: Oxford Economics, UNPD, IHS Global
Insight, Airbus GMF 2015
47
AVIATION MEGA-CITIES
Africa
+320%
+290%
054
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Percentage of premium passengers on route types
As a result of this concentration of wealth,
unsurprisingly the number of premium
passengers (first and business class) is
higher than for other routings. For example,
in 2014 14% of passengers between AMCs
were premium passengers, where as for
routes not including AMCs, this figure was
just 8%.
16%
14%
12%
14%
10%
10%
8%
6%
8%
4%
2%
0%
Aviation Mega-City
to Aviation Mega-City
Aviation Mega-City
<> Secondary City
Secondary City
to Secondary City
ROUTES BETWEEN AVIATION MEGA-CITIES HAVE HIGHER PERCENTAGES OF PREMIUM PAX
Sources: Sabre (September 2014 data), Airbus
Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long-haul, flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
Percentage
of premium
passenger on
AMC
14%
2014
NUMBER OF OPERATORS DURING 20 FIRST YEARS
IN SERVICE HAS INCREASED OVER TIME
SOME REGIONS ARE CONCENTRATING 2ND-HAND AIRCRAFT
As well as difference between aircraft
segments there is also regional variation.
Comparing the share of used aircraft in
each region shows that airlines in Europe,
the CIS and Africa have been more active in
taking multi-owned aircraft; North America
for example, has a smaller share, possibly
indicating a tendency to keep their aircraft
longer.
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
2%
3%
4%
12%
5%
Average number of
operators during the first
20 years of the aircraft life
3.0
Middle East
Europe
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
90%
3.5
Africa
Share of each region
100%
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
Average number of operators
CIS
80%
25%
4%
10%
6%
5%
70%
2.5
6%
31%
60%
37%
2.0
1.5
50%
1965
1985
1970
1990
1975
1995
1980
2000
1985
2005
1990
2010
28%
1995 Year of Built
2015 Year of Built +20
10%
40%
9%
NOT EVERY AIRCRAFT DELIVERED IS NEW
A newly delivered aircraft can expect to
have several owners over its 20 to 30 years
life. It might be owned by several airlines,
potentially from different continents,
potentially with different business models. It
might also be owned by leasing companies
that today manage a significant share of the
current fleet in service. Examining the current
fleet in service, roughly one third of twin-aisle
aircraft have an operating lease. This share is
even higher for the single-aisle. almost half of
these aircraft are owned by lessors.
As well as owners, their role may change
during its life, converted for example
into a freight or private/corporate role.
Understanding the market and formulating
future demand also needs an understanding
of the aircraft aftermarket, a market that like
other elements of our industry is evolving.
For example 30 years ago an aircraft
averaged two operators during the first 20
years of its life. Today, an aircraft averages
three operators.
10%
The reasons for this development include the
fact that aircraft financing is more efficient,
airline segmentation has increased with
the emergence of a broad range of different
airline business models, including low-cost
airlines and seasonal charters. An aircraft is
an asset that is even more liquid today than
30 years ago.
30%
13%
20%
32%
10%
0%
28%
21%
055
056
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
New deliveries by region
CIS
GLOBAL NETWORK
7% 59%
34%
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
1% 85%
14%
18%
13%
3% 79%
2% 85%
VLA
TA
SA
1,288 (4%)
ASIA-PACIFIC
6,365 (20%)
5,544 (17%)
14,116 (44%)
MIDDLE EAST
LCCs
11%
16%
1% 88%
5% 66%
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
& CARIBBEAN
20%
38%
29%
22%
1% 79%
3% 75%
12,596 (40%)
New deliveries
46%
9,321 (29%)
1,117 (7%)
31,781 aircraft
OTHERS*
22%
2% 76%
1,275
1,117 (4%)
2,510 (8%)
7,579
22,927
8,345 (26%)
*Charters, Regional, Small
and Major network airlines
New deliveries by neutral category
7,459
Fleet evolution
Market value
US$ 4.7 trillion
6,872
18,395
Growth
10%
3,822
35,749
3,478
2,574
2,610
1,296
100
1,463
125
150
US$ 2.2 trillion
175
210
250
300
350
US$ 2.0 trillion
932
400
1,275
17,354
VLA
US$ 0.5 trillion
13,386
3,968
Beginning 2015
2034
Replaced
Stay in service
& remarketed
43%
47%
057
Demand
by region
060
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Immigration from
Asia-Pacific
3% 3%
16%
5%
10%
25%
0,4% 0,4%
22%
18%
AsiaPacific
55%
43%
Europe
Middle East
North America
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Latin America
TRADE AND IMMIGRATION DRIVING
AIR TRAVEL GROWTH
Sources: WTO and UN data bank
Trade from
Asia-Pacific
ECONOMY
The region will be a major beneficiary of
the decline in oil prices, for as long as they
last, with for example China, Japan, India,
and South Korea major net importers of oil.
Weakness in prices of minerals and other
commodities could however, less positively
affect others in the region. Asia’s economic
performance remains very dependent on
exports, but domestic sources of growth,
particularly private consumption, are
expected to play a larger role in the coming
years. Among emerging market regions,
Asia-Pacific, will continue to have high
economic growth. As in past, this is mainly
due to the region’s combination of openness
to trade, high domestic saving rates, and a
relatively well-educated and disciplined
labour force. Thanks to these favourable
AIR TRAFFIC
factors, Asia-Pacific will continue to attract
the bulk of global foreign investment
flows heading to emerging markets. The
region is also destined to become the
World’s dominant manufacturing centre
and the main consumer of non-oil primary
commodities. The longer-term outlook for
Asia’s potential growth depends crucially
on the region’s ability to push through
macro-economic policies aimed at boosting
consumption and lowering savings rates.
Asia-Pacific will continue to lead World
economic growth, both in terms of real GDP
with an average of 4.5% per year and in trade
with an average of 5.3% per year, according
to forecasts.
Since the ‘90s, immigration within AsiaPacific has grown rapidly, particularly from
less-developed countries with greater
labour surpluses to fast-growing newly
industrialising countries. According to
the United Nation (UN) data bank, there
were almost 65 million immigrants from
Asia-Pacific in 2013, of which 55% have
moved intra-regionally within Asia-Pacific,
18% to North America and 16% to Europe.
Likewise, according to World trade
organisation (WTO) 43% of Asia-Pacific’s
total trade in 2013 comes from within AsiaPacific, 25% from the Middle East and
another 22% from North America.
Since both Trade and immigration are
important drivers of air traffic, 55 % of AsiaPacific’s total air traffic in 2014 was within
Asia-Pacific. Intra-regional traffic will gain
further importance in the next 20 years,
reaching 60% by 2034.
061
062
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Real GDP average annual growth 2014-2024
The market share of the airlines operating specifically in each subregion has followed a similar pattern, with airlines domiciled in the
PRC increasing their market share from 26% of Asia-Pacific’s total
Available Seat per Kilometre (ASK) in 2004 to 33% in 2014.
8%
PRC
7%
6%
5%
2014
9%
Airlines from PRC have increased market share from 25% to 36% Indian Sub.
Asia Emerging
1%
7%
9%
25%
1%
11%
36%
4%
Asia Developed
3%
World average
2%
Aus/NZ
1%
PRC
AUS/NZ
Asia Developed
Indian Sub.
Asia Emerging
Pacific
19%
17%
0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
39%
Real consumption average annual growth rate (2014-2024)
MARKET SHARE FROM, TO, AND WITHIN ASIA-PACIFIC
BY AIRLINE DOMICILE AIRLINE
ASIA-PACIFIC TO GROW ABOVE WORLD AVERAGE, BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS
Sources: IHS global insight, Airbus GMF
27%
2004
Sources: OAG (Sept. data), Airbus
REGIONAL DIVERSITY
In addition to its vast historical and cultural
diversity, countries in Asia-Pacific are also
at various levels of economic growth. While,
Australia/New Zealand and Asia developed
countries will grow at an average rate of
1.5% and 2.9% per year respectively. Asia
emerging, PRC and the Indian sub‑continent
will become the drivers of growth in the
region, each forecast to grow at an average
rate of 4.0%, 6.7% and 5.9% per annum
respectively.
Asia-Pacific has experienced various levels of growth in low cost
operations in recent years. The Indian subcontinent and Asia
emerging LCCs have captured close to 65% and 60% of the
total domestic traffic respectively, the market share of LCCs in
Asia Developed and Aus/Nz have remained below 25%.
LCC New operations in Asia Emerging have the benefit of less
incumbency from existing airlines, benefiting from the growth
in new flyers and developing liberalisation. On the other hand,
within or between developed countries, the gap in terms of
Correspondingly, the rate at which air traffic
has grown as well as the contribution of
each sub region to Asia-Pacific’s total traffic
has changed over the past 10 years. For
instance, while, “Asia developed” delivered
39% of the total traffic to/from/within AsiaPacific in 2004, today it accounts for 28%
of the total traffic. Conversely, PRC has
increased its share of the region’s traffic from
23% in 2004 to 31% in 2014.
product offering and business models between legacy carriers
and LCCs has narrowed in recent years. The PRC however is an
exception to this trend, where LCCs have captured above 10%
market share intra-regionally and less than 5% domestically.
There appears therefore to be opportunities for further
development in LCC operations from, to, and within China, this
would also serve to increase the connectivity between growing
population centres within China and with the rest of the region.
Share of LCCs in 2014 by sub-region and type of market
70%
Evolution of traffic volume (in billions of ASK)
PRC
100
Domestic
60%
Intra-regional
Asia Developed
80
Asia Emerging
Aus/NZ
60
50%
Inter-continental
LCC’S CONTINUE
THEIR DEVELOP-​
MENT IN ASIAPACIFIC
40%
Indian Sub.
30%
40
PRC HAS OVER
TAKEN ASIA
ADVANCED IN
TERMS OF TRAFFIC
VOLUME
20
0
20%
Intra-regional: within
Asia-Pacific
Inter-regional: between
Asia-Pacific and another
region
10%
LCC definition from
Airbus GMF
Pacific
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: OAG
(Sept. data), Airbus
0%
Sources: OAG
(Sept. data), Airbus
Indian Sub
Asia Emerging
Aus./Nz
Asia Developed
PRC
Pacific
063
064
Flying by Numbers
INDIA: DISPOSABLE INCOME + CONSUMPTION
= AIR TRAVEL
India’s economy has accelerated quickly in the past two decades,
with this evolution also evident in the spending power of its citizens.
According to Oxford Economics, real average household disposable
income has more than doubled since 1980 and it will continue to
grow.
With rising incomes, household consumption will further increase
as will the number of Indian middle classes, estimates suggest the
number of households with discretionary income (above $7,500 per
annum) at 66 million households today. This number will treble to 180
million households by 2030. Households with disposable income of
above $20,000 per year will represent 67 million which will be larger
than the population of France.
As the size of the middle income class grows, so will demand for air
travel. The Airbus GMF forecasts passenger traffic to / from India to
grow five fold in the next 20 years.
Household by income segment (millions of house hold)
Discretionary
income
60
28%
2
27
1
13
7
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Asia-Pacific by region
114
76
52
20
19
17
2014
2020
2030
Basic needs
065
Flying by Numbers
High consumers
(>$70,000)
Emerging consumers
($7,500-$20,000)
Middle class consumers
($20,000-$70,000)
Basic needs consumers
(<$7,500)
INDIAN MIDDLE
INCOME TO GROW
TO 174 MILLION
HOUSEHOLDS
Sources: Oxford
economics, Airbus
CIS
5.9%
Europe
4.4%
North
America
4.9%
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
6.0%
6.3%
Africa
SPECIAL FOCUS ON CHINA
China’s three decades of rapid economic
growth has moved millions of people out of
poverty, and has established a thriving middle
class. According to Oxford Economics. In
2014, China reported 90 million households
with earnings above $20,000 per year, this is
not dissimilar to the US where the number is
110 million households.
By 2024, the number of households above
this income bracket will grow three fold and
will represent 300 million households.
The various regions in China have contributed
differently to this economic boom. The
Eastern regions have witnessed most of the
economic growth in the past, whereas the
highest growth rate in the future will be in the
Western region. For instance, Guangdong,
Jiangsu and Shandong have reported a
combined 1,630 billion USD in 2014, which
represents 30% of China’s total real GDP.
However, in terms of growth rates Western
regions will experience higher rates within the
next decade. This movement of economic
activity westwards should be mirrored
by aviation development, as cities in the
centre and west grow and need improved
transportation and connectivity with the rest
of China and Asia. Aviation has demonstrated
in the past that it is ideally suited for this
purpose, being more cost and land effective
than other mass transportation modes, not
to mention the benefits of speed which are
unmatched.
7.3%
Number of Households (in millions) earning above $20,000 annually
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Latin
America
5.9%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US
China
~300 MILLION HOUSEHOLDS IN CHINA WILL EARN
ABOVE 20,000 A YEAR
6.4%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
4.1%
4.8%
5.6%
4.6%
Sources: IHS and Airbus
Total RPK
traffic growth
AsiaPacific
World
2014-2024
Economy**
Real GDP
Real Trade
4.5%
5.3%
2024-2034
2014-2034
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
13,222
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
8,329
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
6.0%
Inter-regional
5.1%
Fleet*
CHINA DOMESTIC TRAFFIC IS MOVING WESTWARDS
Sources: IHS and Airbus
9.0% - 9.5%
Fleet in service
8.5% - 9.0%
In 2015 In 2034
8.0% - 8.5%
5,275 13,222
Total
traffic
5.6%
20 year new
deliveries
Growth
7,947
New
deliveries
12,596
2,554
5,275
1,089
12,596
624
Replacement
4,649
Stay in service & Remarketed 626
7.5% - 8.0%
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Small Intermediate Very
Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Large
066
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Whilst the Eurozone economy has had
difficulty gaining momentum, consumer
spending is accelerating. This together with
some continued monetary stimulus through
quantitative easing, euro depreciation,
expanding export markets and low oil
prices will all help support growth. In Central
Europe, beyond near term deleveraging
and structural reform priorities, it could be
expected that a renewal of capital inflows,
a rebound of exports and more robust
domestic demand will help economic
developments here.
EUROPEAN AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY
GROWS FASTER THAN THE REGION’S
ECONOMY
Comparative growth of Europe GDP and ASKs from / to / within the region
8%
ASK = Available Seats Kilometres
September operations
Sources: OAG, IHS Global Insight, Airbus GMF 2015
6%
4%
ASK from / to / within
Europe
Europe real GDP
2%
Resilience
0%
-2%
EUROPE’S AIR TRAFFIC
GROWTH EXCEEDED
ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER
THE LAST TEN YEARS
-4%
-6%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
NEEDS LEADING TO RESILIENCE
Europe
Air transport is a core industry in Europe. In
2014, it accounted for 4.1% of the region’s
GDP, supporting more than 12 million jobs
according to a recent ACI report. Europeans
value air travel, inbound tourism is massive,
and the industry adapts dynamically to the
region’s diversity. All of these factors explain
the resilience of European air transport.
Despite stuttering economic performance in
the Eurozone, ACI reported a 5.4% growth
in 2014 in passenger traffic at Europe’s
airports.
European airlines have proven to be
creative in fostering growth over the past 15
years. Dynamic Low Cost Carriers, Global
mega-airlines and their alliances, with Europe
now also benefitting from the emergence of
various hybrid airline models. Traditional Full
Service Carriers are creating subsidiaries
with optimised cost structures, to appeal
the budget travellers. Low Cost Carriers
are adjusting their offer, choosing to refocus
operations on primary airports, offering
assigned seats and an increasing choice of “à
la carte” services. Hybrid carriers are looking
for the sweet spot, offering various levels of
service; from the traditional, all inclusive travel
to the minimum budget offer. In most cases,
an efficient fleet and agile operations are the
basis for profitability.
Finding the
sweet spot
EUROPEAN OPERATORS
ARE ADAPTING THEIR
OFFER TO MARKET
DIVERSITY, LOOKING FOR
NEW GROWTH DRIVERS
EVOLVING BUSINESS MODELS SUPPORT GROWTH
September Operations
Sources: OAG, Airbus GMF 2015
Monthly offered seats within Europe (millions)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FSC low cost
subsidiaries: +6.2%
LCC: +10.1%
FSC: -1.0%
Hybrid Carriers: +11.5%
2009-2014 AAGR: +2.9%
067
068
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Share of long haul flights
connecting to Europe
North America
55%
Asia-Pacific
36%
Africa
58%
Worldwide
60%
LAC
65%
EUROPE IS CENTRAL TO LONG HAUL AIR TRANSPORT
Note: As of September 2014
All flights over 6000 km.
Sources: OAG, Airbus GMF 2015
A GIANT IN THE LONG HAUL MARKET
Thanks to its geographic positioning, strong
tourism attractiveness and importance in the
global economy, Europe leads the long haul
market. 60% of the World’s long haul flights
(over 6000km) depart or arrive in Europe.
It can only be expected that, as social and
economic links between Europe and the
emerging markets, the already extensive
aviation network will grow, providing more
opportunity to airlines both within the region
and beyond.
DIVERSITY OF THE EUROPEAN MARKET
Heart of long
haul market
60% OF LONG HAUL
FLIGHTS CONNECT
TO EUROPE
Europe’s average propensity to travel in 2014
was 1.2 trips per capita (US standing at 1.6
trips per capita). This figure hides a significant
disparity of the propensity to travel across
European countries. Many factors explain
this diversity, such as the countries wealth,
their geographical location, the dependence
of their economy on international business,
the development of the low cost carriers.
The people of Western Europe for example
are benefiting from aviation to a greater extent
than in Central Europe, with respective
propensity to travel at 1.4 as compared to
0.4 trips per capita. Most of the European
countries that present a lower maturity of the
air transport market are experiencing robust
economic growth. Over the next 20 years, we
forecast that the passenger traffic from / to /
within the region will grow at a yearly average
rate of 4,6% in Central Europe, and 3.3% in
Western Europe.
069
070
Flying by Numbers
2014 trips per capita
DIVERSITY OF THE EUROPEAN AIR TRANSPORT
MARKET: PROPENSITY TO TRAVEL
10.0
Notes: Passengers originating from respective country
Bubble size proportional to country population
Sources: GDD, IHS Economics, Airbus
Norway
Ireland
UK
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Turkey
1.0
Sweden
Italy
Romania
Slovakia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EUROPE CONCENTRATES
NEARLY HALF OF
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST
ARRIVALS
CIS
Europe
IN 2014, ON AVERAGE EACH
EUROPEAN TOOK 1.2 TRIPS
4.6%
2.9%
North
America
2014 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
Heart of
international
tourism
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Europe by region
Propensity
to travel
Germany
France
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Bulgaria
0.1
Switzerland
Flying by Numbers
2.8%
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
4.4%
4.6%
Share of international tourists arrivals
Africa
Central
Europe
12%
Other
international
tourists
arrivals
54%
International
tourists
arrivals in
Europe
46%
Western
Europe
33%
4.7%
Latin
America
Southern
Europe
41%
3.5%
Northern
Europe
14%
EUROPE, A FOCUS FOR
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM
Tourism is a major driver for European
international traffic. As reported by the
UNWTO, Europe attracted 588 million
visitors in 2014, a 4% increase versus 2013.
This represents nearly half of international
tourisms total volume.
Whilst three quarters of the visitors are
concentrated in Western and Southern
Europe, Northern European countries have
experienced a solid 6.9% growth in 2014.
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
EUROPE WELCOMED MORE THAN 500 MILLION TOURISTS IN 2014
3.9%
Note: 2014 estimates from UNWTO
Sources: UNWTO, Airbus GMF 2015
4.6%
4.1%
3.4%
3.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Europe
World
2014-2024
Economy**
Real GDP
Real Trade
1.7%
3.4%
2024-2034
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
7,208
2014-2034
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
5,052
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
2.9%
O&D traffic
growth forecast
Inter-regional
3.9%
Fleet*
Fleet in service
CENTRAL EUROPE WILL
HELP DRIVE THE REGION’S
TRAFFIC GROWTH
In 2015 In 2034
4,093 7,208
0.024
Total
traffic
3.6%
3,115
New
deliveries
6,365
4,093
787
20 year new
deliveries
6,365
0.058
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
Growth
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Replacement
370
156
3,250
Stay in service
& Remarketed 843
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Small Intermediate Very
Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Large
071
072
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
OUTSTANDING FINANCIAL
RESULTS
Net profit ($ billion)
14
12
11.9
10
8
ECONOMY
Consumer spending sustained by strong
employment growth, improved household
finances, low gasoline price, housing
market and capital expenditure recovery
have helped drive US economic growth
acceleration. Amongst mature advanced
economies, North America will remain the
growth leader thanks to a combination
of favourable factors including abundant
natural resources, highly developed financial
institutions, rapid immigrant absorption,
huge market size, science and technology
leadership, and a tremendous capacity for
innovation and entrepreneurship. US real
GDP growth is forecast to average 2.5%
per year in the 2014-2034 period, with
greater business fixed investment and R&D
spending offsetting the slowdown in labour
force growth. By 2034, North America will
still account for 21% of World economy (in
real terms).
7.2
6
North American airlines experienced
their third consecutive year of increased
profitability. Consolidation and lower fuel
costs have contributed to record financial
performance in 2014, accounting for 60%
of the $19.9 net profit achieved worldwide.
This represents more than $14 of net profit
per passenger, almost double compared
to 2013.
4
4.2
2
0
North
America
1.7
2010
2011
2.3
2012
2013
2014
NORTH AMERICAN AIRLINE PROFITS INCREASING SINCE 2011
Note: IATA forecast value for 2014
Sources: ICAO, IATA, Airbus
North American
airlines share of
worldwide profit
60%
2014
net profit
MARKET TRENDS
73%
SHARE OF CONNECTING ON
LONG HAUL FOR REGION
DOMICILED AIRLINES
18
NUMBER OF MEGACITIES IN
THE REGION IN 2034
30%
SHARE OF LCCS IN DOMESTIC
REGIONAL TRAFFIC
Source: Sabre, OAG, Airbus GMF 2015
0.67
INDEX OF COMPETITION
BETWEEN AIRLINES ON ORIGIN
& DESTINATION LONG‑HAUL
TRAFFIC FROM/TO THE REGION
56%
MARKET SHARE OF DOMICILED
AIRLINES IN TRAFFIC WITH
OTHER REGIONS
073
074
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
UNSURPRISINGLY THE REGION HAS A HIGH PROPENSITY TO FLY
Number of aircraft
4,500
Notes: Passengers originating from respective country
Bubble size proportional to country population
Nonlinear regression weighted by country population
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus
4,000
2014 trips per capita
3,500
CAPTURING THE UPCOMING
TRAFFIC GROWTH
100,00
3,000
10,00
2,500
Solid economic perspectives, which stimulate
business trips and purchasing power, together
with a traditionally high propensity to travel will
further highlight the North American market
as one of the most important in the World.
United states: 1.6 TPC
Canada: 1.5 TPC
1,00
2,000
0,01
1,500
1,000
0,10
500
0,00
0
10
20
30
40
0
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
REGION’S FLEET SIZE RELATIVELY STABLE
2009
Single-aisle
50
60
70
80
90
100
2014 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
2014
Twin-aisle
Note: as of end year
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
Tourism and immigration will also play an
important role in that growth. In recent
years more people have come to North
America to study, work or visit friends and
relatives. International tourist arrivals, for
example, jumped by more than 8% in 2014
with around 120 million people coming to
the region (including Mexico according to
UNWTO definition of North America). With
the real potential for improved relationships
with Cuba, more new inbound or outbound
tourists can be expected with this country in
the next years.
RENEWING AN AGEING FLEET
After decades of growth of the North
American fleet in service in both single-aisle
and twin-aisle segments, a decrease was
observed during the 2000’s - a decade
characterised by significant adverse events
such as 9/11 or the 2008 financial crisis.
During this period airlines applied strict
capacity control to their operations to see
them through these difficult periods. With
the return of profitability since 2010, together
with a favourable economic environment,
a new era has begun with the increase of
the number of single-aisle aircraft and the
stabilisation of the number of twin-aisle
servicing the market.
Together with positive developments in
fleet size, there is also a trend towards the
rejuvenation of the fleet, however, at the end
of 2014, the average age of single-aisle and
twin-aisle aircraft in the fleet is still around
12 and 15 years respectively against World
average around 9 and 10 years. As a result,
50% of the North American fleet is aged 13
and above, a driver for the fleet replacement
activity we have been witnessing in recent
years is likely to continue.
2014 FLEET MIDDLE AGED
400
14
Fleet age (years)
Twin-aisle
Number of aircraft
350
12
300
10
250
8
200
6
150
4
North America
2
0
1959
Single-aisle
Note: as of 31/12/2014
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
World
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009 2014
NORTH AMERICAN FLEET NOT
GETTING ANY YOUNGER - YET
Notes: As of end year. 100-seater and above
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
100
50
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
40
Age (years)
075
076
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Results
International tourist arrivals (million)
125
RPK traffic growth from/to
North America by region
120
119.5
115
CIS
4.4%
110
North
America
110.5
105
Europe
2.8%
1.8%
106.4
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
4.9%
7.1%
100
Africa
4.8%
95
2012
2013
Latin
America
2014
4.5%
NORTH AMERICA INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS
REPRESENT 10% OF THE WORLD’S TOTAL
Notes: Mexico included in North America
Sources: UNWTO, Airbus
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
3.7%
The domestic US air transport market, the largest single market
today, will remain enormous and is forecast to be the second biggest
flow in the World with 90 billion RPKs by 2034. Traffic between
the US and China is forecast to be the most dynamic of the North
American regions flows with an average yearly growth of 7.3%. More
concretely, growth at this level doubles the traffic every decade...
some might say awesome. Traffic between Canada and China will
also grow at an impressive pace of 6.7% per year over the next 20
years. We forecast that over the next 20 years more than 400 million
additional passengers, more than the entire population of the US,
will take off or land in North America, representing a 3.4% increase
in RPK per year.
2014
international
tourist arrivals
3.4%
+8.2%
North
America
World
2014-2024
2024-2034
2014-2034
Economy**
Real GDP
Real Trade
2.5%
4.6%
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
Traffic**
1.8%
Inter-regional
The GMF estimates that 5,544 new deliveries will be needed to
replace a fleet older than the World average (3,631 aircraft) and to
meet traffic growth (1,913 aircraft). Deliveries will comprise 4,733
single-aisle, 776 twin-aisle and 35 very-large aircraft. With their
recent return to profit, North American airlines are ideally positioned
to play the starring role of the always promising North American story.
4.1%
Total RPK
traffic growth
3.1%
Intra-regional
& domestic
NEW DELIVERIES
4.6%
4.2%
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
4,182 6,095
Total
traffic
3.4%
6,095
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
4,733
Growth
1,913
4,182
New
deliveries
5,544
20 year new
deliveries
582
194
Replacement
5,544
3,631
35
Stay in service
& Remarketed
551
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Small Intermediate Very
Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Large
077
078
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
From 2003
to 2014
ASK FROM/TO/WITHIN
MIDDLE EAST HAS GROWN
FOUR TIMES
4
Middle
East
ASK* evolution (Base 100 in 2003) globally and from/to/within Middle-East
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2003
The region’s medium-term economic
outlook remains supported by its substantial
petroleum resources, close proximity to
energy-hungry Asian economies, growing
tourism potential and a strategically
important geopolitical location. It is expected
oil producers will continue to address their oil
dependence by fostering development and
activity in the non-oil sectors. Over the longer
term, projections indicate real GDP growth
for the region averaging 3.8% per year,
clearly above the forecast World average
growth of 3.2% over the next 20 years.
Air transport has been both a major driver
and indicator of the growing importance of
the Middle East in the global economy, also
linking its main economic centres to the
rest of the World. The extraordinary growth
in both business and leisure passengers
reflects the dynamism of the region, proving
its success in diversifying beyond the energy
sector and increasing its global footprint.
Middle East
2004
2005
2006
2007
World
MIDDLE EAST HAS EXPERIENCED CONTINUOUS
GROWTH OVER THE LAST DECADE
Source: OAG – September of each year
* Available Seat Kilometres on Passenger Aircraft >100 seats
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Over the past ten years, Middle Eastern
airlines have spearheaded growth in the
region. They have extended their presence
to five continents, enabling air traffic to grow
twice as fast as the economy. Since 2003,
the capacity in terms of available seats has
quadrupled to over 400 billion ASKs.
Unprecedented network development has
created an air transport network in which
Middle Eastern cities have become major
hubs, linked to aviation mega-cities around
the World.
079
080
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
The development of air traffic in the Middle
East is unique – it is the only region in the
World where the twin-aisle fleet is bigger
than the single aisle.
This aircraft capacity has been a key enabler
of airline growth in the region in recent years.
Long-haul traffic has been crucial for the
development of Middle Eastern carriers.
Since 1995 the share of long haul traffic
has increased from half to more than two
thirds in 2014. Data shows that the strategic
focus on this segment of the market was a
resounding success: long haul traffic has
been growing at 11 percent over the past
20 years, outperforming short haul by on
average five percentage points.
Number of destinations served by Middle East airlines
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
Share of Connecting Traffic by airline domicile
40%
35%
30%
25%
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Africa
CIS
North America
Latin America
2010
2015
MIDDLE EAST CARRIERS
HAVE DIVERSIFIED THEIR
DESTINATIONS OVER TIME
DESTINATIONS INCREASINGLY GLOBAL
20%
15%
10%
Sources: OAG (September of each year), Airbus
5%
Such high growth is enabled by a large
proportion of connecting traffic. Middle
East carriers have increased their share of
connecting traffic over the past five years
from 28 to 34 percent. Compared to other
regions where connecting traffic represents
less than 17 percent, Middle East and North
America stand out with about a third of
passengers connecting in the region.
Middle East Airlines ASK (billions)
70
60
50
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Middle East
North America
Africa
THE MIDDLE EAST HAS THE LARGEST SHARE
OF CONNECTING TRAFFIC IN THE WORLD
Latin America
CIS
Asia-Pacific
Sources: Sabre, Airbus
Europe
40
30
Long-Haul
20
10
0
Share of
Connecting
passengers
SHARE OF LONG-HAUL
ASK IN 1995
47%
Short-Haul
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Short-Haul <= 2,000nm
Long-Haul > 2,000nm
LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC GROWTH AT THE HEART OF GROWTH
Note: September ASK for each year
Sources: OAG, Airbus
2011
2013
SHARE OF LONG-HAUL
ASK IN 2014
69%
It is also interesting to note that the share of connecting traffic passing
through the Middle East, i.e. not starting or finishing their journeys
there, is just 19% of the region total origin and destination traffic,
especially as the perception is that the Middle East is just one large
hub. Looking more deeply, just 15% of total Middle East O&D are in
this inter regional “transiting” category for long haul passengers, with
the remaining 5% on short-haul journeys.
AMONG PASSENGERS
TRANSPORTED BY MIDDLE
EAST CARRIERS:
34%
2014
081
082
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Middle East by region
Middle East
Airlines
Direct
Connecting outside
the region
A MIX OF CONNECTING AND DIRECT ORIGIN
AND DESTINATION TRAFFIC
Connecting inside
the region
SHARE OF PASSENGERS
TRANSITING AND NOT
STARTING OR FINISHING
THEIR TRIP IN MIDDLE EAST
19%
CIS
6.6%
Europe
4.6%
North
America
7.1%
AsiaPacific
5.8%
Africa
90
6.3%
Middle
East
Note: as of 31/12/2013
Sources: Ascend, Airbus
100 Share of OD passengers
083
6.6%
0%
Latin
America
7.7%
19%
31%
80
70
7.1%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
15%
4.1%
4.8%
6.0%
4.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Middle
East
World
60
2014-2024
2024-2034
2014-2034
Economy**
50
Real GDP
Real Trade
3.8%
4.2%
66%
69%
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
40
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
2,792
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
30
5.8%
Inter-regional
6.0%
20
Fleet*
10
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
1,018 2,792
0
886
Total
traffic
6.0%
Growth
1,774
1,018
20 year new
deliveries
547
New
deliveries
2,361
551
377
Replacement
2,361
587
Stay in service
& Remarketed
431
Middle East
North America
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Small Intermediate Very
Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Large
084
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Latin America
& Caribbean
LATIN AMERICAN & CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK POSITIVE
Sources: IHS Global Insight (January 2015), Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
Real GDP growth, by region (%)
16%
History
Forecast
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2006
Q1
2006
Q4
2007
Q3
2008
Q2
2009
Q1
The regional economic outlook for Latin
America and the Caribbean suggests
modest growth in 2015, and acceleration
in 2016. Lower oil prices are good news for
Chile, Uruguay, and Caribbean and Central
American nations, but not necessarily for oil
exporting countries in the region. Compared
with the pre-Asian crises years when the
region also posted strong economic growth,
the macro-economic fundamental conditions
have improved substantially.
2009
Q4
2010
Q3
2011
Q2
2012
Q1
2012
Q4
2013
Q3
2014
Q2
2015
Q1
2015
Q4
2016
Q3
2017
Q2
United States
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Latin America
& Caribbean
085
086
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Percent of urban population, 2014 and 2030
North America
80
Latin America
& Caribbean
73
Europe
71
Oceania
The region with
the second
largest urban
population
worldwide
54
World
48
Asia
40
Africa
0%
Traffic growth to/from/within Latin America
and the Caribbean is expected to expand at
an annual 4.7% rate, above the 4.6% World
annual rate. Three out of the top twenty
largest traffic flows continue to be linked
to the region: Western Europe - South
America, with an expected annual growth
of 3.9%, South America - USA, with an
average annual expansion of 4.9% and
finally, Domestic Brazil, with a forecasted
5.4% annual increase. A sound long-term
social and economic outlook; regional
airline consolidation already in place,
LCC stimu-lation, and a modern fleet of
passenger aircraft all support the long-term
development of this region as an aviation
market. Traffic within the region (domestic
and intra-regional) will help to drive
passenger growth, representing more than
35% of the total by 2034, above the current
share which is ~30%.
Regional economic development and
a growing middle class offer growth
opportunities, both for legacy and low-cost
carriers. Up until today, the LCC’s steady
expansion was mainly concentrated on the
Brazilian and Mexican domestic markets.
The region’s real GDP growth is expected
to average 3.6% per year over the 20142034 period, above that forecast globally.
Together with the large and growing urban
populations, propensity to travel in the
region is expected to develop further, with
countries like Chile, Brazil and Colombia,
reaching the levels achieved by more mature
economies by 2034.
82
20%
40%
60%
80%
LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN IS ONE OF THE MOST
URBANIZED REGIONS WORLDWIDE
2014
Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division, 2014 revision
2030
100%
80%
2014
Latin America
1994-2014 ANNUAL
GROWTH ON AVERAGE
SINGLE-AISLE SEATS
0.8%
AIRCRAFT IN THE REGION ARE GETTING BIGGER
Seats per flight
(Latin America)
Note: * Aircraft > 100 seats
Sources: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
It is expected however, that airlines offering
low-cost services will find new markets,
flying longer, thus also stimulating intraregional traffic. Aircraft with greater range
capabilities will facilitate this development.
Opportunity also exists as intra-regional
routes have not reached their potential.
As an indication of this, the share of routes
between the 20 largest cities in the region,
with at least one flight per day, currently
accounts for ~40% of total routes between
big cities, well below the almost 100% that
this same type of route represents in North
America or Europe.
Another positive feature to highlight is that
airlines in the region have been and will
continue to accommodate traffic growth
through the use of larger aircraft. This has
already been the case over the period
1994-2014, with airlines in Latin America
expanding their average aircraft size per
single-aisle flight at an annual pace of 0.8%,
close to the 0.9% registered worldwide over
the same period.
Seats per flight
(World)
Seats per flight
(Caribbean)
Average seats per single-aisle flight *
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
087
088
Flying by Numbers
089
Flying by Numbers
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Latin America by region
LOW COST SERVICE
DEVELOPING IN THE
REGION – MORE TO COME
More than 110 million seats were offered
by Low Cost carriers in 2014, on routes
connecting Latin American airports. This
represents a one third market share for intraregional traffic.
Over the last decade low cost carriers in Latin
America have contributed to the surge in
passenger traffic which averaged a 10.9%
growth rate between 2004 and 2014. This
compares to a slower growth rate of 6.4% in
the period 1994-2004 where LCC operations
were limited in Latin America.
However disparities in LCC market
penetration exist between the different
countries of Latin America. LCCs account
for more than 55% of the domestic market
in Mexico and Brazil, there is still a lot
of potential of growth in the other Latin
American countries where they represent
less than 2% of the traffic.
LCCs in
Latin America
CIS
5.3%
Europe
3.5%
North
America
4.5%
LCCS MARKET
SHARE CONTINUOUSLY
INCREASING IN LATIN
AMERICA
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
5.9%
7.7%
THEIR GROWTH HAS
ACCELERATED, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LAST 10 YEARS
Africa
5.0%
Latin
America
5.3%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
LCCS REPRESENT 35% OF LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL TRAFFIC
4.9%
Source: OAG
4.1%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Latin
America
30
Monthly seats offered (millions)
World
2014-2024
Middle East Airlines ASK (milliards)
Real GDP
Real Trade
60
3.6%
4.2%
50
35%
20
LCCs
30
Intra-regional
& domestic
5.3%
20
10
Fleet size*
2,801
Inter-regional
4.3%
10
Total
traffic
4.7%
Growth
1,535
1,266
Legacy airlines
0
Fleet*
Fleet in service
5
In 2015 In 2034
1,266 2,801
0
1994
Fleet in service
evolution
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
1,992
Traffic**
40
15
2014-2034
Economy**
70
25
2024-2034
20 year new
deliveries
New
deliveries
2,510
382
108
Replacement
2,510
975
28
Stay in service
& Remarketed
291
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Small Intermediate Very
Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Large
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
RESILIENCY OF AIR TRAVEL
SINCE 2000 TRAFFIC GREW
TWICE AS FAST AS THE
ECONOMY
8.5%
4.2%
CAGR ASKs
CAGR GDP
1999 level = 100
400
350
300
250
As in other regions air travel in the CIS
has proved resilient to economic cycles,
rebounding quickly from short-term
perturbations. During the last financial
crisis in 2009, the CIS economy shrunk
by a dramatic 6.8 percent. Consumer and
business confidence dropped and air traffic
followed suit. But the following year traffic
surged by 17 percent, surpassing historical
average growth rates to return to the longterm trend.
In the longer run, air travel consistently
outperforms the economy. Over the past
fifteen years, real GDP grew on average at
4.3 percent, while traffic increased by 8.5
percent in the region.
200
150
AIR TRAVEL IS RESILIENT TO SHORT-TERM
ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS
100
Sources: OAG, IHS, Airbus
50
0
ASK
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
GDP
UNTAPPED POTENTIAL
Georgia
0
UNTAPPED TOURISM POTENTIAL
Sources: WTTC, Airbus
Ukraine
World
9.5%
Uzbekistan
5
Russia
10
Moldova
15
Kyrgyzstan
real GDP grew by 6.9 percent and 4.3
percent respectively. In 2015, CIS countries
excluding Russia will continue to grow at 2.4
percent according to the IMF.
Long run level of growth in the region will
depend on governments’ commitment to
diversify and modernise economies, release
the potential of the middle classes, increase
incentives for growth, and attract foreign
direct investment and new technologies.
Real GDP is forecast to grow on average 2.7
percent over the next 20 years.
20
Kazakhstan
Fluctuations in oil prices coupled with wellknown political difficulties in the region
have stalled growth in Russia. 2015 will
be challenging, but the Rubble’s flexible
exchange rate and strong reserves will help
soften the blow to the largest economy in
the region. Any downturn is expected to be
short-lived and at time of writing, the CIS as a
whole is forecast to return to positive growth
in 2016.
In 2014, a number of the countries in
the region maintained solid economic
performance. Uzbekistan and Moldovan
EXCELLENT PROSPECTS
FOR TRAVEL AND TOURISM
TO BECOME A STRONG
DRIVER OF INVESTMENT,
JOBS AND INCOME
IN THE REGION
Total contribution to GDP in 2014 (%)
25
Belarus
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Another difficulty is the time and cost in
getting a visa to some of the countries in the
region. Simplification, as in other countries,
who have improved their entry procedures,
would stimulate tourism demand and traffic
for the airlines serving the region.
Azerbaijan
CIS
Travel and tourism have the potential to
become a much stronger driver for the
region’s economies. Compared to the World
average, only Georgia stands out with tourism
contributing over 20 percent to its GDP. In
the rest of the region, the increase in travel
has yet to translate into higher employment
and income. Nine out of ten countries rank
below the 100 by employment in tourism,
with levels significantly below the 9.5 percent
World average. The share of Russian tourism
in the World is less than one percent, while
its economy represents 2.4 percent of global
GDP.
The situation could improve as CIS
travelers turn from visiting major European
destinations to discovering their own region,
local economies will also no doubt benefit.
With the right government support, increased
income from tourism can boost investment in
infrastructure and raise the level of services.
Even a small fraction of roughly $50 billion that
Russian tourists spent on international travel
in 2013 would provide a significant boost to
the local tourism industry.
Air transportation remains expensive in CIS
countries, as many markets are dominated
by national carriers. Measures such as the
right to introduce non-refundable tickets will
decrease prices and as a result is likely to
attract more passengers to air travel.
Armenia
090
091
092
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
2004
51city pairs
OVER 4000 MONTHLY SEATS
2014
317city pairs
2004
OVER 4000 MONTHLY SEATS
2014
CONNECTING WITH THE EMERGING
ECONOMIES
Sources: OAG, Airbus
BUILDING STRONG TIES WITH
DEVELOPING MARKETS
Over the past ten years, the number of
passengers flying to and from emerging
economies has reached 34 million in 2013,
compared to less than ten million in 2004.
Travel to Asia-Pacific has increased by
a multiple of four. On average, the yearly
growth in travel with developing markets
was 15.8 percent, 4.3 percent above the
rate with developed countries. With further
strengthening of trade with fast-growing
economies the trend is likely to continue.
Stronger ties with fast-growing economies
are reflected in the number of cities
connecting the CIS to other emerging
countries. In 2014, the network consisted of
317 city pairs compared to only 51 in 2004.
In terms of international air traffic volume,
Europe remained the most important
region with almost 28 million passengers
transported in 2013. Middle East and North
EUROPE STILL DOMINATES, MIDDLE EAST
AND NORTH AFRICA INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT
Africa grew at an astounding annual rate of
18.4 percent. In part, this growth was driven
by the arrival of low cost carriers in several
CIS countries. Excluding Russia, the number
of Middle Eastern cities served increased
from two in 2009 to 21 in 2014. In terms of
offered capacity low cost carriers’ market
share in 2014 is up by 21 percent.
Sources: Sabre, Airbus
2003
Passengers (millions)
9
25
35
x 3.8
30
x 2.8
8
20
7
25
6
15
20
4
10
3
x 4.4
x 8.7
5
2004
2006
BUILDING STRONG TIES WITH
EMERGING COUNTRIES
Sources: Sabre, Airbus
2008
2010
Emerging countries
2012
x 2.3
x 3.3
2
x 2.1
1
2014
Advanced countries
x 4.2
5
15
5
15.8%
Passengers (millions)
Passengers (millions)
40
0
CIS excluding
Russia
Russia
10
CAGR WITH
EMERGING COUNTRIES
2013
0
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Middle East and
North Africa
Americas
0
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Middle East and
North Africa
Americas
093
094
Flying by Numbers
Results
GROWTH IN DOMESTIC
TRAVEL
Russia is looking forward to a renaissance
in domestic travel as the latest economic
slowdown and local currency fluctuations
are making it more affordable for Russians
to visit domestic destinations instead of
taking outbound trips. Figures for 2014, are
encouraging: Russian carriers transported
17.9 percent more passengers on domestic
flights.
The high cost of transportation within
Russia is still the main barrier. With the
absence of low cost carriers on domestic
routes, the cost of the airfare is estimated
to often represent 50 percent of a tourist’s
total expenditure on a trip. The government
is supporting the development of domestic
tourism through a federal target programme
called Domestic and Inbound Tourism
Development 2011-2018, which aims to
increase the number of domestic trips by
150 percent.
NUMBER OF PASSENGERS
FLYING ON DOMESTIC
ROUTES INCREASED BY
Flying by Numbers
Passengers (millions)
100
90
80
70
CIS
60
4.3%
50
40
Europe
4.6%
North
America
30
4.4%
20
Middle
East
10
0
AsiaPacific
5.9%
6.6%
2013
Domestic
2014
CIS
Africa
International
5.0%
RUSSIAN CARRIERS TRANSPORTED 10% MORE PASSENGERS IN 2014
Latin
America
Sources: Russian Ministry of Tourism, Airbus
5.3%
17.9%
in 2014
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
5.5%
4.1%
4.2%
4.6%
4.8%
Total RPK
traffic growth
CIS
World
2014-2024
FOCUS ON:
TOURISM IN RUSSIA
Economy**
Russia attracts tourists with a unique blend of
old and new attractions. Although less visited
than some other European destinations,
Moscow and St Petersburg have already
become synonymous with ‘culture-infused
opulence’. Luxury tourism is flourishing,
supported by high end hotels, shopping, and
world-renowned artistic performances.
Beyond the big cities, Russia is the largest
country in the World, spanning two continents
and boasting 23 UNESCO heritage sites, 41
national parks and 101 nature reserves. More
than 5 million tourists visited Sochi in 2014,
and 35 percent more visitors are estimated
in 2015. With the 2016 Ice Hockey World
Championship, 2017 FIFA Confederation
and 2018 FIFA World Cup all scheduled in
Russia, sports tourism will continue to play
a major role.
2.0%
Real GDP
Real Trade
Favourable exchange rates of the Ruble will
further boost inbound international tourism.
According to Xinhua news agency, Russia
has already become the most attractive
shopping destination for Chinese tourists,
surpassing Japan, South Korea, Thailand
and the US.
Preliminary figures for 2014, suggest that
China is taking the lead in terms of tourist visits
to Russia (10-15 percent growth). Inbound
tourism from Korea has increased by 70
percent after a visa simplification process
introduced in 2013, while inbound tourism
from Turkey has increased by 13 percent.
2.1%
2024-2034
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
New deliveries
by segment
Number of new aircraft
2,016
Traffic**
Intra-regional
& domestic
4.3%
Inter-regional
5.1%
2014-2034
Total
traffic
4.8%
Growth
1,094
1,101
New
deliveries
1,288
922
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
922
2,016
Replacement
194
138
20 year new
deliveries
1,288
25
24
Stay in service
& Remarketed
728
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Small Intermediate Very
Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Large
095
096
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
SHARE OF WORLD POPULATION LIVING
IN AFRICA
Sources: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
1994
12.6%
2014
15.7%
2034
20.1%
In 2034,
Africa
MORE THAN ONE FIFTH OF
THE WORLD’S POPULATION
WILL BE LIVING IN AFRICA
1/5
It would be hard to find anyone who would disagree that Africa has
significant potential in terms of its economic development, growth
opportunities and air travel. Covering about 30 million km , Africa
is comprised of 54 countries, more than any other continent, even
surpassing Europe with 47, and Asia with 44. These countries
bring numerous assets, including young diverse populations, and
reserves of valuable and much sought after natural resources. The
diversity of its peoples and languages are matched only by the
diversity in its ground transportation infrastructure, from its modern
highways to at times impassible tracks. Aviation is and will continue
to be the best way to connect Africa’s countries, not only to each
other, but with the peoples and markets in the rest of the World.
AFRICA’S POPULATION SET TO GROW
Africa has striking demographics. Its population doubled between
1982-2009 according to the UN, and is today estimated at 1.1
billion representing approximately 15% of the World’s population,
growing faster even than China and India. It is estimated that one in
five people will live in Africa by the end of our forecast period in 2034.
097
098
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Population age, 2010
Male pop. in the World
80+
Male pop. in Africa
75-79
70-74
Female pop. in the World
URBAN POPULATION
EXPECTED TO REACH
49% IN 2034
(VS 61% FOR THE WORLD
AVERAGE)
65-69
SHARE OF
THE AFRICAN
POPULATION LIVING
IN URBAN AREAS
Sources: UN Population
Division, Department of
Economic and Social
Affairs, (2014 revision)
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
100%
50%
0%
50%
100%
AFRICA’S POPULATION IS YOUNG
Sources: UN Population Division, Department of
Economic and Social Affairs (2012 revision), Airbus
100%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Female pop. in Africa
60-64
60%
Some 40% of the African population
currently lives in urban areas, an urbanisation
level already greater than India. There are
54 African cities with more than one million
people and this number is forecast to grow
to 93 by 2030. According to the United
Nations, the share of Africans living in urban
areas will reach 50% by 2034. Trade and
social exchanges between these urban
areas will contribute greatly to African
domestic and intra-regional traffic growth.
In terms of consumption per capita, the
African continent will be amongst the most
dynamic. Indeed, with a share of households
with discretionary income projected to
exceed 50 percent by 2020 (reaching 128
million in 2020), Africans’ purchasing power
is also expected to grow over the next
20-years helping to fuel the region’s longterm growth.
33%
28%
36%
40%
44%
49%
10%
0%
1984
CONSUMPTION PER
CAPITA 20-YEAR
GROWTH PER
ANNUM
1994
2004
2014
2024
2034
4%
0%
Sources: IHS Global
Insight, Airbus
90%
80%
Secondary
Education
enrolment ratio
70%
AFRICA’S 20-YEAR
CONSUMPTION PER
CAPITA (2.4%)
WILL EXCEED THAT OF
WORLD AVERAGE (2.3%)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA HAS
NEARLY DOUBLED OVER
THE LAST
20 years
0%
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
OECD-members
East-Asia & Pacific
Middle East &
North Africa
AFRICA’S ATTRACTIVENESS
World
South-Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Since the beginning of this century, the
diversification of Africa’s partnerships and
its integration within the World economy
has certainly led to the acceleration in the
region’s economic attractiveness and an
improvement in business climate. Despite
inequalities between different African regions
attractiveness, foreign direct investment
flows rose by 4% in 2013 to reach $57
billion, with a greater focus in consumeroriented industries illustrating the continent’s
increasing proportion of households with
discretionary income leading to a rise in
consumer spending.
With a less restrictive environment, a better
education system and a greater exposure
to the global market, Africa has managed to
substantially improve its productivity over
time, this expected to continue in the coming
years.
IMPORTANT FOR THE FUTURE, EDUCATION IS GROWING IN AFRICA
Sources: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, The World Bank
African
population
~60%
OF AFRICANS ARE
BELOW 24 YEARS OLD
44%
OF THE WORLD
POPULATION IS BELOW
THIS AGE
INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE GRADUALLY INCREASING
IN IMPORTANCE
10%
Africa’s population is the youngest in the World, with 41% of Africans
below 14 years of age, globally this figure is 27%. This young
population which is expected to double by 2045, will lead to a quite
significant working age population (15-64 years) within the next 20
years, both a benefit and a challenge. The working age population
in Africa rose by 30%, to reach over 570 million people between
2000 and 2010. With these levels of growth, it is expected that the
continent’s potential labor force will reach a billion people by 2040,
exceeding that of China and India.
Importantly this young population is also getting better access to
education. Between 1992 and 2012, the share of Africans enrolled
in secondary education (regardless of age) rose from 23% to 41% in
the Sub-Saharan region and 80% in North African countries.
Intra-African trade
Intra-African trade: Imports and exports.
Sources: Compendium of Intra-African and Related Foreign Trade
Statistics 2013, ECA / African Statistical Yearbook 2014, Airbus
Million USD
Total African trade
Share of Intra-African trade
1,400,000
16%
1,200,000
14%
12%
1,000,000
10%
800,000
8%
600,000
6%
400,000
4%
200,000
2%
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
13%
ALMOST
OF TOTAL AFRICAN IMPORTS AND
EXPORTS ARE WITHIN AFRICA
0%
099
100
Flying by Numbers
Chinese Imports from Africa,
Million USD
120,000
25,000
100,000
x 14
x 44
20,000
80,000
15,000
60,000
10,000
40,000
5,000
20,000
0
Chinese FDI Stocks in Africa,
Million USD
2003
0
2013
Chinese migrants in Africa,
thousand people
2003
2012
International O&D Traffic,
thousand monthly Passengers
2,000
70
60
x 1.5
50
x 10.5
1,500
40
1,000
30
20
There appears to be more opportunity for
intra-African trade. Whilst total African trade
almost tripled between 2004 and 2012,
African intra-regional trade represented just
13% of total commerce in 2012, compared
to trade between emerging-Asian countries
which amounted to 53% for the same period.
In recent years China has grown its links
with Africa, trade as well as Chinese Foreign
Direct Investment which has significantly
increased over the last decade. While
Chinese imports from Africa grew fourteen
times between 2003 and 2013 to reach
113bn USD, Chinese flows into Africa
reached over 2.5bn USD in 2012 for a
cumulated FDI flow of over 21bn USD. Over
the period 2003-2013, international origin
and destination traffic between Africa and
China has grown more than ten times with
nearly 1.5 million monthly O&D passengers
travelling by air between the two.
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Africa by region
CIS
5.0%
Europe
4.7%
North
America
4.8%
2003
2013
0
2003
Africa
x14 in 10 years
AFRICA’S LINKS TO CHINA GROWING
* Origin and Destination
Sources: IHS Global Insight, UNCTAD, Chinese Ministry of Commerce, UNPD, Sabre GDD, Airbus
7.3%
6.6%
CHINESE IMPORTS
FROM AFRICA
2013
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
500
10
0
Flying by Numbers
6.4%
Latin
America
5.0%
INTERNATIONAL O&D
PASSENGER TRAFFIC
x10.5 in 10 years
INTERNATIONAL O&D
TRAFFIC FROM/TO AFRICA
6.2%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
5.0%
2004-2014
+132%
140,000
4.1%
5.1%
5.6%
4.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Thousand O&D passengers from/to/within Africa*
Africa
World
120,000
2014-2024
AIR TRAFFIC POTENTIAL
2014-2034
Economy**
100,000
Inter-continental traffic with Africa is largely
focused on Europe, which accounts for
almost 60%. However, in recent years, AsiaPacific and the Middle East have increasingly
gained importance representing more than
20% of traffic in 2014 compared to 15% ten
years ago. This progression is supported by
Africa’s exposure to business opportunities
with other emerging economies, particularly
in Asia and the focus of carriers from
the Middle East who see opportunity in
increasingly connecting Africa with the AsiaPacific region.
Domestic traffic within African countries
remains the primary market for African air
travellers. However, Intra-regional traffic
between African countries has grown
faster than domestic traffic over the last 10
years, supported by growing African urban
populations and African intra-regional trade.
2024-2034
Real GDP
Real Trade
4.6%
5.0%
80,000
Fleet in service
evolution
Fleet size*
60,000
Intra-regional
& domestic
6.4%
20,000
Inter-regional
5.5%
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latin America
Middle East
CIS
Europe
North America
Intra-Africa
Asia-Pacific
TRAFFIC TO/FROM/
WITHIN AFRICA
*Origin and Destination
*Year 2014 is based on
estimate from month of
September 2014 (x12)
Sources: Sabre GDD,
Airbus
Fleet*
Fleet in service
In 2015 In 2034
598
1,615
Number of new aircraft
1,615
Traffic**
40,000
New deliveries
by segment
834
Total
traffic
5.6%
New
deliveries
Growth
1,117
1,017
598
194
Replacement
100
20 year new
deliveries
58
1,117
31
Stay in service
& Remarketed
498
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Beginning
2015
2034
SingleAisle
Small Intermediate Very
Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle
Large
101
102
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Freighter
forecast
103
104
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Monthly air freight traffic evolution
THE AIR FREIGHT INDUSTRY IS GROWING AGAIN
Sources: Seabury, IATA, Airbus
Billion FTKs (Freight tonne kilometres) – quarterly adjusted
18
17
16
2014 growth
rate estimate
+4.5%
15
14
13
12
11
10
01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 01/12 01/132 01/13 07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15
Air
Freight
GROWTH IS BACK…
AND STRONG
After having stagnated or even decreased
for almost three years, the air freight industry
resumed its progress in 2014 by posting
4.5% growth compared to 2013. Additionally,
in the summer of 2014, total air freight traffic
surpassed for the first time the peak it reached
in 2011.
Thanks to a more supportive economic environment driven by the
emerging markets and the US, all regions of the air freight World
benefited from the recovery. With US GDP growing at around 3.0%,
and the Chinese economy expanding by an impressive 7.4% in
2014, some airlines and airports even recorded unprecedented
cargo volumes in 2014.
Air freight is an important element of World trade, each year it
transports more than one third of all trade by value. With higher
business and consumer confidence even more products are
being transported on the main deck or cargo holds of aircraft, both
boosting productivity and yields.
Air freight
volumes just
surpassed
the 2011 peak
GROWTH DRIVERS:
• REGIONAL TRAFFIC
• EMERGING ECONOMIES
• EXPRESS TRAFFIC
105
106
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
80%
At the beginning of 2015, oil prices had
reached an eight year low at ~ $50 per barrel.
This is good news for the industry as these
lower fuel prices offer a period for airlines to
improve profitability through the reduced
costs on offer and an opportunity to prepare
for future.
Annual growth
rate 2014-2034
Air freight is forecast to grow at 4.4% over
the next 20 years. This will be largely driven
by emerging markets where both general
and express cargo are expected to continue
to expand.
INCLUDES BELLY
AND MAIN DECK
4.4%
5985nm
Los Angeles
Hong Kong
A350-1000
STRUCTURAL PAYLOAD
22,200KG
TOTAL AIR FREIGHT TRAFFIC GROWTH
Sources: Airbus GMF 2015, Seabury, IATA
VOLUMETRIC PAYLOAD
20,900KG
Billion Freight tonne kilometres
500
Growth Rate
2014-2034
History
Forecast
400
Advanced
Advanced
2.6%
300
Emerging
Emerging
6.1%
Advanced
Emerging 80%
4.9%
200
100
0
Emerging
Advanced
4.9%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
A350-1000 WILL BE ABLE TO CARRY UP TO 22T ON THE TRANS PACIFIC
JAR 5% International flight profile
85% Annual wind reliability
Speed: LRC
MAIN DECK VS BELLY CAPACITY
Just over 50% of the cargo traffic in 2014
was transported in the “belly” hold of
passenger aircraft, that is in the space below
the main deck where passenger luggage
is also stowed. The market share for belly
capacity is expected to continue to grow
in the future especially on inter-continental
routes. This is due to the addition of more
larger more capable passenger aircraft
on these flows, increasing the underfloor
space available for freight operations.
The need for these additional aircraft is
being driven by passenger traffic growth
higher than freight traffic growth. In 2014,
passenger traffic grew by an estimated
6% while it is forecast to grow 4.6% per
year over the next two decades. This belly
capacity effect on the use and demand for
dedicated freighters was apparent over the
period 2011-2013, where cargo demand
was flat whilst at the same time passenger
traffic was recovering quickly from the
effects of the financial crisis of 2008/2009.
This was especially true on the trans-Pacific
segment where additional belly capacity
pressured main deck freighter activity.
During this period, over 100,747 freighters
were parked due to lack of demand.
In parallel, new wide-body types will be even
more cargo friendly; the A350-1000 for
example will be able to carry 21t between
Hong Kong and Los Angeles, while a
747‑400 today can carry just 8t. These
new, more cargo capable aircraft types are
another reason cargo will increasingly find
its way in to the belly holds of passenger
aircraft.
107
108
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
These two effects combined, higher
passenger growth rates and more capable
long-haul aircraft will reduce the need for
long range dedicated freighters in the future
as belly capacity will capture more and more
of the long-haul cargo demand.
Billion Freight tonne kilometres
500
400
Cargo traffic
growth
4.4%
300
100
Belly traffic
growth
4.8%
51%
0
2014
Belly outpace
cargo growth
2034
WORLDWIDE SHARE OF BELLY CARGO
VS MAIN DECK
Main deck cargo
THE IMPACT OF NEW
BELLY CAPABLE WIDEBODY
PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
WILL BE MAINLY ON LONG
HAUL FLOWS
Belly cargo
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
Three trends that Airbus foresees for the
future of the air cargo industry:
• Express will continue to develop more
rapidly than general cargo, this driven by
both international traffic and domestic
and regional traffic in emerging regions
such as China and South East Asia. This
will drive the need for more fuel efficient
aircraft capable of carrying large volumes of low density goods. At Airbus,
the A321P2F or the A330‑300P2F are
well suited for these kinds of missions.
57%
200
RESULTS: MID-SIZE
FREIGHTERS, VERSATILE AND
COMPLEMENTARY TO BELLY
CAPACITY UTILISATION
Freighter
deliveries
• Medium haul regional traffic will surge,
with the development of cargo networks
in regions such as intra-Asia, within
Africa and Latin America. This will drive
the need for mid-size aircraft, which
are both versatile and a compromise
between profit generation and risk mitigation during market downturns.
EXPRESS AND REGIONAL
TRAFFIC WILL BOOST THE
SMALL AND MID SIZE
MARKET
BELLY CAPACITY WILL
DRAMATICALLY IMPACT
LARGE FREIGHTER
PROSPECTS
• Belly capacity will continue to grow especially on long haul routes where new
cargo friendly passenger wide‑bodies
are expected to progressively replace
large freighters thanks to very competitive economics.
World fleet
2034
2,687
2015
1,633
462
991
337
804
Europe & CIS
795
172
FREIGHTERS DELIVERIES
OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS
309
65
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
North America
Freighter deliveries over the next 20 years
89
1,500
50
Africa
1,130
1,000
609
617
77
Latin America
500
0
169
Small
freighters
Mid-Size
freighters
Large
freighters
The North American fleet is
mainly a replacement market
The Asia-Pacific fleet
is set to triple
THE FUTURE FREIGHTER FLEET DISTRIBUTION WILL REFLECT THE
GROWING INFLUENCE OF EMERGING MARKETS
Sources: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND
109
110
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Summary &
methodology
111
112
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Summary
of results
113
114
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
PASSENGER TRAFFIC FLOW
Origin-Destination Flow
Asia advanced - Asia emerging
Asia advanced - Australia/NZ
Asia advanced - Canada
Asia advanced - Caribbean
Asia advanced - Central America
Asia advanced - Central Europe
Asia advanced - CIS
Asia advanced - Indian SC
Asia advanced - Japan
Asia advanced - Middle East
Asia advanced - North Africa
Asia advanced - Pacific
Asia advanced - PRC
Asia advanced - Russia
Asia advanced - South Africa
Asia advanced - South America
Asia advanced - Sub Sahara Africa
Asia advanced - USA
Asia advanced - Western Europe
Asia emerging - Australia/NZ
Asia emerging - Canada
Asia emerging - Caribbean
Asia emerging - Central America
Asia emerging - Central Europe
Asia emerging - CIS
Asia emerging - Indian SC
Asia emerging - Japan
Asia emerging - Middle East
Asia emerging - North Africa
Asia emerging - Pacific
Asia emerging - PRC
Asia emerging - Russia
Asia emerging - South Africa
Asia emerging - South America
Asia emerging - Sub Sahara Africa
Asia emerging - USA
Asia emerging - Western Europe
Australia/NZ - Canada
Australia/NZ - Caribbean
Australia/NZ - Central America
Australia/NZ - Central Europe
Australia/NZ - CIS
Australia/NZ - Indian SC
Australia/NZ - Japan
Australia/NZ - Middle East
Australia/NZ - North Africa
Australia/NZ - Pacific
Australia/NZ - PRC
Australia/NZ - Russia
Australia/NZ - South Africa
Australia/NZ - South America
Australia/NZ - Sub Sahara Africa
Australia/NZ - USA
Australia/NZ - Western Europe
Canada - Caribbean
Canada - Central America
Canada - Central Europe
Canada - CIS
2014-2034 RPK CAGR
5.9%
2.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.3%
3.6%
5.2%
7.0%
2.3%
5.9%
4.9%
2.7%
6.0%
5.2%
6.8%
5.8%
5.9%
3.6%
3.5%
5.1%
3.5%
3.8%
2.4%
4.8%
5.2%
8.1%
3.6%
6.2%
6.4%
4.9%
7.2%
5.2%
7.0%
7.6%
6.2%
3.8%
4.4%
3.5%
3.6%
3.1%
4.4%
4.6%
4.3%
3.0%
5.4%
4.8%
3.2%
5.6%
4.7%
6.7%
6.4%
5.8%
3.2%
4.5%
5.2%
4.9%
3.4%
4.3%
Origin-Destination Flow
Canada - Indian SC
Canada - Japan
Canada - Middle East
Canada - North Africa
Canada - Pacific
Canada - PRC
Canada - Russia
Canada - South Africa
Canada - South America
Canada - Sub Sahara Africa
Canada - USA
Canada - Western Europe
Caribbean - Central America
Caribbean - Central Europe
Caribbean - CIS
Caribbean - Indian SC
Caribbean - Japan
Caribbean - Middle East
Caribbean - North Africa
Caribbean - Pacific
Caribbean - PRC
Caribbean - Russia
Caribbean - South Africa
Caribbean - South America
Caribbean - Sub Sahara Africa
Caribbean - USA
Caribbean - Western Europe
Central America - Central Europe
Central America - CIS
Central America - Indian SC
Central America - Japan
Central America - Middle East
Central America - North Africa
Central America - Pacific
Central America - PRC
Central America - Russia
Central America - South Africa
Central America - South America
Central America - Sub Sahara Africa
Central America - USA
Central America - Western Europe
Central Europe - CIS
Central Europe - Indian SC
Central Europe - Japan
Central Europe - Middle East
Central Europe - North Africa
Central Europe - Pacific
Central Europe - PRC
Central Europe - Russia
Central Europe - South Africa
Central Europe - South America
Central Europe - Sub Sahara Africa
Central Europe - USA
Central Europe - Western Europe
CIS - Indian SC
CIS - Japan
CIS - Middle East
CIS - North Africa
2014-2034 RPK CAGR
5.7%
1.2%
5.9%
4.7%
1.7%
6.1%
3.9%
4.5%
5.2%
3.7%
2.5%
2.7%
4.4%
2.4%
2.3%
5.0%
2.2%
4.4%
2.3%
2.7%
5.3%
6.0%
3.4%
5.8%
3.9%
2.7%
2.3%
3.6%
3.7%
5.0%
3.6%
5.5%
3.9%
1.5%
6.0%
5.0%
4.3%
6.6%
3.1%
5.0%
3.5%
4.7%
5.4%
3.9%
6.7%
4.7%
3.5%
6.0%
4.8%
5.7%
4.1%
5.3%
3.6%
4.7%
5.3%
4.1%
5.1%
5.0%
Origin-Destination Flow
CIS - Pacific
CIS - PRC
CIS - Russia
CIS - South Africa
CIS - South America
CIS - Sub Sahara Africa
CIS - USA
CIS - Western Europe
Domestic Asia advanced
Domestic Asia emerging
Domestic Australia/NZ
Domestic Brazil
Domestic Canada
Domestic Caribbean
Domestic Central America
Domestic Central Europe
Domestic CIS
Domestic India
Domestic Indian SC
Domestic Japan
Domestic Mexico
Domestic Middle East
Domestic North Africa
Domestic Pacific
Domestic PRC
Domestic Russia
Domestic South Africa
Domestic South America
Domestic Sub Sahara Africa
Domestic Turkey
Domestic USA
Domestic Western Europe
Indian SC - Japan
Indian SC - Middle East
Indian SC - North Africa
Indian SC - Pacific
Indian SC - PRC
Indian SC - Russia
Indian SC - South Africa
Indian SC - South America
Indian SC - Sub Sahara Africa
Indian SC - USA
Indian SC - Western Europe
Intra Asia advanced
Intra Asia emerging
Intra Australia/NZ
Intra Caribbean
Intra Central America
Intra Central Europe
Intra CIS
Intra Indian SC
Intra Middle East
Intra North Africa
Intra Pacific
Intra South America
Intra Sub Sahara Africa
Intra Western Europe
Japan - Middle East
2014-2034 RPK CAGR
4.6%
6.8%
4.6%
5.8%
5.4%
6.1%
4.6%
5.0%
0.9%
6.7%
3.1%
5.4%
2.4%
0.9%
0.9%
4.3%
4.8%
9.2%
3.0%
1.4%
4.8%
3.7%
4.5%
3.0%
6.8%
4.2%
5.0%
5.6%
7.0%
6.3%
1.7%
1.5%
5.8%
6.3%
6.2%
3.5%
9.4%
6.2%
6.9%
8.2%
6.6%
6.9%
4.6%
4.4%
6.9%
2.8%
0.9%
4.9%
4.4%
4.4%
3.3%
6.0%
4.3%
2.7%
4.6%
7.1%
2.7%
6.5%
Origin-Destination Flow
Japan - North Africa
Japan - Pacific
Japan - PRC
Japan - Russia
Japan - South Africa
Japan - South America
Japan - Sub Sahara Africa
Japan - USA
Japan - Western Europe
Mexico - USA
Middle East - North Africa
Middle East - Pacific
Middle East - PRC
Middle East - Russia
Middle East - South Africa
Middle East - South America
Middle East - Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East - USA
Middle East - Western Europe
North Africa - Pacific
North Africa - PRC
North Africa - Russia
North Africa - South Africa
North Africa - South America
North Africa - Sub Sahara Africa
North Africa - USA
North Africa - Western Europe
Pacific - PRC
Pacific - Russia
Pacific - South Africa
Pacific - South America
Pacific - Sub Sahara Africa
Pacific - USA
Pacific - Western Europe
PRC - Russia
PRC - South Africa
PRC - South America
PRC - Sub Sahara Africa
PRC - USA
PRC - Western Europe
Russia - South Africa
Russia - South America
Russia - Sub Sahara Africa
Russia - USA
Russia - Western Europe
South Africa - South America
South Africa - Sub Sahara Africa
South Africa - USA
South Africa - Western Europe
South America - Sub Sahara Africa
South America - USA
South America - Western Europe
Sub Sahara Africa - USA
Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
USA - Western Europe
2014-2034 RPK CAGR
6.8%
2.7%
3.1%
2.5%
5.9%
5.6%
6.5%
2.3%
3.0%
3.8%
6.1%
4.9%
7.3%
7.9%
7.1%
8.2%
7.1%
7.3%
4.5%
4.5%
8.4%
4.5%
7.0%
6.0%
7.1%
4.5%
4.5%
6.2%
2.8%
6.4%
6.4%
4.9%
1.3%
2.6%
6.7%
7.1%
6.7%
8.7%
6.6%
5.3%
6.2%
5.0%
6.1%
4.3%
4.4%
5.6%
7.2%
5.4%
4.9%
5.3%
5.2%
4.0%
4.9%
4.7%
2.8%
115
116
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
SUMMARY DATA
NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
CONVERTED FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
834
Small Twin-Aisle
Latin
America
& Caribbean
Middle
East
20 Year new
deliveries
Small
38
319
8
81
84
5
74
609
5,184
Mid-size
24
113
22
122
37
25
375
718
194
2,395
Large
10
77
14
28
-
19
77
225
377
35
1,275
TOTAL
72
509
44
231
121
49
526
1,552
2,361
5,544
31,781
8,329
1,101
5,052
1,992
886
4,733
22,927
194
2,554
138
787
382
547
582
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
58
1,089
25
370
108
551
Very Large Aircraft
31
624
24
156
28
1,117
12,596
1,288
6,365
2,510
North America
NEW PASSENGER & FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
834
Small Twin-Aisle
Latin
America
& Caribbean
20 Year new
deliveries
North
America
Europe
Middle
East
North America
20 Year new
deliveries
AsiaPacific
Small
38
319
8
81
84
5
74
609
5,372
Mid-size
30
185
35
159
68
55
598
1,130
314
2,734
Large
17
222
25
79
1
85
188
617
423
113
1,550
TOTAL
85
726
68
319
153
145
860
2,356
2,457
5,878
32,585
North America
20 Year new
deliveries
8,329
1,101
5,052
1,992
886
4,733
22,927
198
2,579
140
796
389
552
718
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
62
1,179
39
413
132
596
Very Large Aircraft
36
726
32
192
29
1,130
12,813
1,312
6,453
2,542
Middle East
Africa
AsiaPacific
CIS
Europe
Small
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mid-size
6
72
13
37
31
30
223
412
Large
7
145
11
51
1
66
111
392
13
217
24
88
32
96
334
804
NEW FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Latin
America
& Caribbean
Latin
America
& Caribbean
Africa
Europe
TOTAL
CIS
TOTAL FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
CIS
TOTAL
20 Year new
deliveries
AsiaPacific
Europe
TOTAL
Latin
America
& Caribbean
Africa
CIS
Middle
East
CIS
Europe
Middle
East
North America
117
118
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
The making of the Airbus Global Market
Forecast follows a process which has been
continuously developed and improved for
more than 20 years. Each major change in the
industry (such as the appearance of low cost
business models or the strong development
of hub and spoke operations) have been the
occasion for Airbus to refine and improve
its modelling in order to best identify and
forecast current and future trends.
GMF PROCESS STEPS
The GMF process consists in three main
steps: the traffic forecast giving the overall
shape of traffic evolution, the network
forecast identifying the future evolution of the
airlines networks, and the demand forecast
estimating the number of aircraft which will be
required to accommodate the traffic growth.
Demand Forecast
Backlogs and
retirements
assumptions
Airline
Calibration
Traffic
Forecast
Passenger
methodology
Airlines
Operations
Forecast
Capacity
Frequency
Model
Network
Forecast
FORECASTING TRAFFIC
The objective of the traffic forecast is to
assess the quantity of passengers travelling
by air. Initially, all countries are grouped into
21 traffic regions, based on geographical
proximity and level of socio-economic
development. Each region pair defines a
non-oriented traffic flow, assuming that
outbound and inbound passenger traffic is
balanced. Whenever a part of a traffic region
develops significantly different from the rest
of the region, a new, specific flow is created,
taking into consideration some more countryrelated specific characteristics. This process
resulted in 203 flows for the GMF 2015. The
main input data for the traffic forecast are
historical traffic volumes as well as large sets
of historical and forecasted socio-economic
data from external data providers.
For each traffic flow several socio-economic
variables are selected and input in econometric
equations with the aim to identify the one set or
combination of variables that explains best
the historical traffic evolution. Once the model
and variables with the best fit are identified, the
forecasted economic data are used to derive
the future traffic volume.
This forecast of passengers on-board is then
reprocessed to estimate Origin / Destination
demand at the region pair level, which is
subsequently broken down at the country
pair and at the airport pair level.
Airline
Fleet
Build-Up
New
Deliveries
119
120
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Number of airlines
THE AIRLINE
CALIBRATION PROCESS
7%
FORECASTING NETWORK
Airline networks evolve over time and airlines
keep on adding and removing routes from
their network, changing the supply of travel
from the passenger standpoint. The evolution
of the network with new opened and closed
routes shifts the demand from one routing
to another, with an impact sometimes even
visible at a level as high as the traffic flow level.
Furthermore new routes tend to fragment the
market as they partially absorb traffic from the
existing network and therefore impact the
route-per-route traffic evolution. The network
forecast aims at quantifying these impacts.
Among the very large set of potential new
routes, a subset of reasonable candidates is
devised for each airline, based on the carrier’s
current network and the potential size of
new markets. This set of routes is fed into
a ‘Quality of Service Index’- based model,
which determines for each new route the
traffic potential and the point in time when it
could be opened.
FORECASTING AIRCRAFT
DEMAND
3%
5%
The demand forecast aims to estimate the
number of aircraft which will be required
over the next 20-years to satisfy the World’s
traffic growth. The new demand identified
by the Airbus GMF (on top of current fleet
and known orders) is expressed in neutral
seats categories. The use of such virtual
aircraft allows a view of future demand
unconstrained by the product supply. This
“theoretical” demand represents a solution
which would best match the airlines needs
in terms of aircraft size, if no considerations
of supply (specific product performance,
production availability, etc.) are made.
Based on this undistorted view, the results
can be used to consider such things as new
product introduction, size requirements and
timing. By examining the market at a route
by route and airline by airline level then also
allows a large number of other uses from
discussions with airlines to our supplier
partners for example.
8%
18%
32%
47%
29%
GMF 2015 covers 651 passenger airlines and
their subsidiaries worldwide.
As a first step and for each of these airlines, a
dedicated calibration process is carried out.
It aims to take the best of several sources of
information concerning the airlines in order to
understand how an airline is operating each
of its aircraft. Precise fleet data allows us to
calibrate the detailed operations of a given
airline (either scheduled or unscheduled) and
therefore deduce which type of aircraft has
been flying on which sector for a particular
month of the year. This detailed adjustment
allows us effectively apply the way an airline
utilizes its aircraft on its network.
6%
651 AIRLINES AND THEIR SUBSIDIARIES
ARE ANALYZED
- AIRLINES DISTRIBUTION PER TYPE
18%
8%
19%
Installed seats in service
Global Network
LCC
Major Network
Regional
Small Network
Non Scheduled / Charter
651 AIRLINES AND THEIR SUBSIDIARIES ARE ANALYZED
- AIRLINES DISTRIBUTION PER REGION
FORECASTING AIRCRAFT DEMAND
120
Number of airlines
111
100
Open Demand
83
79
80
68
60
46
Backlog
Virtual aircraft
by seat category
Real aircraft
(known product)
Stay in service
40
40
30
28
35
31
28
28
22
20
22
Real aircraft
(existing product)
Real aircraft
(existing product)
0
Asia
Canada
Central Central
America Europe
CIS
Europe
Indian
Middle
Subcontinent East
North
Africa
Pacific
PRC
South
America
Sub
Sahara
USA
121
122
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
THE AIRLINE OPERATION
FORECAST
Once the calibration of an airline has been
carried out, real aircraft are converted into
virtual aircraft in a fashion that keeps the
overall number of seats in the fleet constant.
The whole forecast is then based on neutral
category values, our seat categories e.g.
100, 125, 150, 210 for single aisle types and
requirements.
Traffic growth rates are applied to each
airline’s routes, also taking into consideration
future developments, as anticipated in
the network forecast process. There are
few ways an airline can accommodate
traffic growth: load factor improvement,
improvement of its aircraft utilization,
frequency or capacity increase.
The split between frequency increase and
/ or capacity increase is one of the most
important factors influencing the shape
of the future demand. A dedicated model
(the Airbus Capacity/Frequency Model)
has been developed to address this issue.
The general principle is that airlines grow
on a route by adding frequencies up until a
minimum level of service is reached. Beyond
this minimum level airlines grow with a mix of
both frequency and capacity increase, until
the maximum level of service is reached,
above which time differentiation through
additional frequencies does not bring any
further value to the passenger. Above this
maximum service level the most efficient
way to accommodate further growth is to
increase the average aircraft size to achieve
lower costs per aircraft seat. Each market
in the World has its own specificities.
Passengers in North America for instance,
are used to a very high level of service (i.e.
very frequent flights between two airports)
which is not true for other regions in the
World.
A market in this case can be defined as
a set of routes on a given traffic flow for a
certain type of airlines business model. For
each of these markets one or more airlines
may compete and each route might have a
different length. Taking all this into account
allows us to specify how frequencies and
capacity will develop over time, for a given
traffic growth.
The calibration of this model has to be
reviewed each year based on the market
definitions and in light of any market evolution
(e.g. infrastructure development plans).
As a result, the airline operation forecast
outputs year by year, the demand in terms
of aircraft numbers (yearly utilization, flight
frequencies and capacity) expressed in
neutral categories for the complete network
of each airline.
A DEDICATED MODEL HANDLES THE FREQUENCY AND/OR CAPACITY SPLIT
Typical evolution on a route enjoying growth:
Traffic (RPK index 100 = year)
250
Threshold depending
on market characteristics
200
150
100
Frequency
&
Capacity
increase
Frequency
increase
Capacity
increase
50
0
AIRLINE FLEET BUILD-UP
2 HAND AIRCRAFT
Once the overall neutral demand is forecast,
each airline fleet build-up can be carried out.
This demand is re-allocated to the existing
fleet and the known orders.
The final step of the GMF process consists
in estimating second hand deliveries as they
account for a significant share of the total
deliveries.
Generic assumptions are made for each
region regarding the retirement age of the
fleets but these schemes are adapted for
each airline. Elements such as replacement
plans (new aircraft replacing older types), end
of contract lease, airline business models or
economic and financial environment have
to be taken into account in determining
replacements.
The remaining demand which cannot be
satisfied by the current fleet or the known
orders corresponds to the open market.
Survival curves applied to the GMF start
fleet per aircraft type allow identification of
the gap between the statistical World fleet
attrition and the shape of those that “stay in
service” from the GMF fleet build-ups. The
delta corresponds to the maximum potential
for second hand aircraft. In parallel to this,
candidate aircraft are identified amongst the
existing fleet and reallocated as deliveries to
another airline if the corresponding demand
exists.
This study is carried out on a worldwide basis
as a first step and then refined by region and
by airline. At the end of the process, these
“second hand” deliveries are subtracted
from total deliveries, leaving only the “new
deliveries” which are the figures displayed in
this publication.
As well as identifying demand, the GMF also
allows us to extract all forecast operational
detail e.g, traffic flow, route, frequencies,
utilization, load factors, etc.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
123
124
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
THE FREIGHTER FORECAST PROCESS
Historical
traffic data
analysis
Airline
Fleet
calibration
Passenger
forecast
Cargo
capacity
needed
Belly
capacity
available
Econometric
models
Total
traffic
forecast
Freight
forecast
methodology
Retirement
Freighter
demand
The freighter forecast process can be
divided into three main steps: the traffic
forecast resulting from econometric
projections for each directional flow, the
integration of the belly traffic co-ordinated
with the passenger aircraft forecast and
the demand forecast evaluating how many
freighters will be needed in the next 20
years (and whether they will be new build or
converted freighters).
Aircraft
125
126
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Express
evolution
Conversion
vs new built
Belly capacity
From pax GMF
Utilisation calibration
Load factors calibration
Air cargo
trends
200 airlines fleet plan
Models: correlating drivers with trends
10
Commodities
demand
Fuel Price
8,000 routes
8
6
Forecast
4
2
0
1998 2002
Real
consumption
GDP
Drivers
Consumer
behaviour
TRAFFIC FORECAST
Once the calibration of an airline has been
carried out, the first step in the traffic forecast
is assessing the relationship between
macro-economic trends and the cargo
traffic, GDP, Real Income, Investments,
Exports/Imports, industrial production and
many other parameters are used in our
econometric models to assess the best
comparison to growth in traffic. Alongside
these macro-economic factors, the analysis
of historical data allows us to identify and
understand the multiple trends involved in
the evolution of the market, such as modal
shifts for certain commodities.
Exports/
Imports
Industrial
production
GLOBAL INPUTS TO GENERATE A LONG TERM FORECAST FOR TRAFFIC & FLEETS
150 flows
2008
2014
2020
2026
2032
Specific domestic
markets models
127
128
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
Airlines and freighter fleet in service in 2015
337
51
795
Europe & CIS
16
65
Middle East
34
309
45
North America
Asia-Pacific
27 50
Africa
21 77
Latin America
BELLY CAPACITY AND BASE YEAR CALIBRATION
AIR FREIGHT INDUSTRY IN 2015
World figures 2015
Fleet: 1,633
Operators: 197
Once the traffic flow forecasts have been established. It is important
to split the future demand between belly capacity and the dedicated
freighters. Thanks to the passenger aircraft GMF, it is possible to
estimate the belly capacity each airline will offer on its network. In
addition, Airbus monitors how airlines use their belly holds to carry
cargo to establish trends in belly capacity load factors.
As a result, the combination of the airlines’ passenger network
development and the cargo hold load factor evolution gives an
estimation of the share of freight transported on the passenger
aircraft belly on each flow.
In parallel, a calibration is conducted on today’s freighter fleet. An
assessment of multiple data sources is performed to arrive at the
best estimate of airlines’ network, aircraft utilisation and load factors
for the base year. Projections based on historical data collected for
more than a decade with current market perspectives gathered from
stakeholders across the industry to ensure the latest data and trends
are incorporated.
129
130
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
FREIGHTER FORECAST
the freighter forecast for the next 20 years
estimates the number of aircraft required
to accommodate the cargo traffic growth.
The demand is divised into four neutral size
categories strarting at ten tonnes, including
new build and converted aircraft. Thanks
to these virtual categories, it is possible to
assess witch aircraft size, on which flow,
best suits the market. Our freighter forecast
is the result of the analysis of the behaviour
of nearly 200 different airlines.
When forecasting an airline’s choice of new
build or converted freighters, a detailed
study of historical trends is used to identify
the trend in activity per aircraft size category.
On top of using historical trends, an analysis
of current and future fuel pricesis performed
to simulate their effect on this decision
making process.
DOMESTIC EXPRESS ANALYSIS
FREIGHTER DELIVERIES WILL EXCEED 2,300 AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS
To address the specific question of the
domestic express market, a dedicated
forecast model has been developed
and deals with four countries: the US, which
today is the largest player in express traffic,
as well as Brazil, India and China, who are
all expected to become large consumers of
express services over the next 20 years.
This model analyses a distinctive set of
parameters to understand the customers’
need for express services resulting from wellknown or new behaviours, such as online
purchasing, next-day delivery for business
purposes, service reliability and traceability.
The model for domestic express consists
in two parts. The first estimates the US
express traffic and fleets based on a
40 years historical data to identify the main
drivers of growth. The second, used for
the emerging markets, takes US express
development as a benchmark, while taking
into account the unique characteristics
of each country including infrastructure
development, labour costs, internet
penetration, for example.
1,500
Freighter deliveries over the next 20 years
1,130
1,000
1 145
412
609
617
718
500
392
225
0
Small
Mid-Size
Large
131
132
Flying by Numbers
Flying by Numbers
133
SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT
Disclaimer
This presentation includes forward-looking
statements. Words such as anticipates,
believes, estimates, expects, intends,
plans, projects, may, forecast and similar
expressions are used to identify these
forward-looking statements. Examples
of forward-looking statements include
statements made about strategy, rampup and delivery schedules, introduction
of new products and services and market
expectations, as well as statements regarding
future performance and outlook. By their
nature, forward-looking statements involve
risk and uncertainty because they relate to
future events and circumstances and there
are many factors that could cause actual
results and developments to differ materially
from those expressed or implied by these
forward-looking statements.
These factors include but are not limited to:
• Changes in general economic, political
or market conditions, including the
cyclical nature of some of Airbus Group
businesses;
•S
ignificant disruptions in air travel (including as a result of terrorist attacks);
•C
urrency exchange rate fluctuations,
in particular between the Euro and the
U.S. dollar;
•T
he successful execution of internal
performance plans, including cost
reduction and productivity efforts;
•P
roduct performance risks, as well as
programme development and management risks;
•C
ustomer, supplier and subcontractor
performance or contract negotiations,
including financing issues;
•C
ompetition and consolidation in the
aerospace and defence industry;
•S
ignificant collective bargaining labour
disputes;
•T
he outcome of political and legal
processes, including the availability of
government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and
space procurement budgets;
•R
esearch and development costs in
connection with new products;
•L
egal, financial and governmental risks
related to international transactions;
•L
egal and investigatory proceedings
and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties.
Any forward-looking statement contained in
this presentation/publication speaks as of the
date of this presentation/publication release.
Airbus Group undertakes no obligation to
publicly revise or update any forward-looking
statements in light of new information, future
events or otherwise.
AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France
© AIRBUS S.A.S. 2015 - All rights reserved, Airbus, its
logo and the product names are registered trademarks.
Concept design by Airbus Multi Media Support
20150603. Photos by Airbus, A. Gault, J. Pulitano, K. Ginn,
P. Powietrzynski, D. Melekhin, Skyhobo, M. Buschbell
Steeger, I. Terentyev, Alija, BFG Images, Nikada, L. Patrizi,
O. Korshakov, WMG Image, S. Ramadier, A. Doumenjou,
C. Koshorst. Computer rendering by Fixion.
Reference D14029463 issue 2. August, 2015.
Printed in France by Art & Caractère.
Confidential and proprietary document. This document
and all information contained herein is the sole property
of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are
granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure
of its content. This document shall not be reproduced
or disclosed to a third party without the express written
consent of AIRBUS S.A.S.
This document and its content shall not be used
for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied.
The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.
They are based on the mentioned assumptions
and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting
grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS
S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.
This brochure is printed on Stucco Old mill - Premium
white and Offset standard.
This paper is produced in factories that are accredited
EMAS and certified ISO 9001-14001, PEFC and FSC CoC.
It is produced using pulp that has been whitened without
either chlorine or acid. The paper is entirely recyclable
and is produced from trees grown in sustainable forest
resources.
The printing inks use organic pigments or minerals. There
is no use of basic dyes or dangerous metals from the
cadmium, lead, mercury or hexavalent chromium group.
The printer, Art & Caractère (France 81500),
is engaged in a waste management and recycling
programme for all resulting by-products.
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