Download Philippines Summit 2016

Philippines Summit 2016
Surging ahead?
November 10th 2016 • Manila
Once South-East Asia’s chronic underachiever, the Philippines has emerged as a
darling of emerging market investors. Rodrigo Duterte’s victory in May’s Presidential
election suggests the Filipino people are less optimistic. Mr Duterte succeeds Benigno
Aquino, whose pro-business policies encouraged foreign investment, boosted spending
on infrastructure and encouraged consumption. Mr Duterte, who ran a populist
campaign focused on domestic issues, seems keen to pacify nervous investors and says
growth will be his priority too. And though the Philippines will be buffeted by regional
and global economic headwinds, the IMF expects it to post growth rates of above 6%
in 2016. Closer economic integration with its South-East Asian neighbours should see the
Philippines economic fortunes rise even further in years to come.
Yet as Mr Duterte’s rhetoric suggests, the story for Filipino people is more mixed.
Widespread poverty remains a real problem. Unemployment is stubbornly high, and
both health-care spending and the disposable incomes of the poor lag behind what is
now seen in the Philippines’ neighbours. Yet these problems also present opportunities.
The country’s population of 100 million is growing. There is abundant room for privateand public-sector innovation in health care, education, infrastructure, and consumer
products. Now is the time for the Philippines to take advantage of its demographic
dividend.
The Philippines faces internal and external security headaches that show little sign of
abating. Despite peace deals, violence remains depressingly present in the restive
southern provinces, and the country is caught in an increasingly ominous game of
geopolitical chess in the South China Sea. Its relationship with the United States, a treaty
partner, remains strong. Yet the Philippines must delicately balance this relationship
against ties with its ASEAN neighbours and other trading partners—including China.
Long overlooked in favour of the “tiger” economies to its north and south, the
Philippines has the opportunity to finally emerge as a South-East Asian powerhouse. Its
challenge is to live up to this potential.
The Philippines Summit 2016 will bring together leading voices from government,
business and finance, civil society and academia for a forthright discussion about the
opportunities and challenges facing the country. Under Mr Duterte, will 2017 be the
year the Philippines surges ahead?
Conference chairman
Jon Fasman, South-East Asia bureau chief, The Economist
Moderators
Charles Goddard, editorial director, Asia-Pacific, The Economist Intelligence Unit
© 2016 The Economist Events
This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.
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DRAFT PROGRAMME
8.00am
Registration and networking refreshments
9.00am
Chairman’s opening remarks
9.30am
Keynote interview: Policy priorities in the year ahead
10.00am
Keynote panel: The Philippines’ economy—full speed ahead?
Under former president Benigno Aquino, the Philippines enjoyed
consistent GDP growth rates of over 6%. Boosted by remittances, public
spending, the growth of the business-process outsourcing industry and
greater regional integration (primarily through the formation of the
ASEAN Economic Community or AEC), the country enjoyed healthy
foreign investment flows.
New President Rodrigo Duterte takes control of the country at a time
when the global economy is far less robust. China’s growth is slowing,
Europe’s economic malaise continues unabated and the fledgling AEC is
experiencing (not wholly unexpected) teething problems,. Could weaker
global demand lead to stuttering prospects for the Philippines? Or can
strong domestic consumption and cheaper oil continue to prop up the
economy?
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10.45am
What policies is the new government putting in place to help
foster GDP growth? How has the shift to a new administration
affected investor sentiment?
What will slowing global growth and the structural changes in
China’s economy mean for the Philippines? Is the country
adequately prepared to take advantage of opportunities that
may arise?
How can the Philippines harness the benefits of greater
economic cooperation through initiatives such as the AEC and
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?
Spotlight interview: Going global
We invite a significant business leader to take part in a one-on-one
interview. They will give their views on how Filipino companies have
successfully expanded beyond their borders and why this trend must
continue in order to boost growth back home.
11.15am
Networking break
© 2016 The Economist Events
This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.
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11.45am
Strategy session: It’s a consumer’s world (concurrent)
The global tech boom is coinciding with an explosion in the
Philippines’ middle class, which has led to the birth of an innovative
and exciting consumer market. What will the key growth areas be in
2017? What are the pitfalls to avoid? Which companies are leading
the pack—and which are falling behind?
Strategy session: The future of manufacturing (concurrent)
With a young population and relatively low wages, the Philippines is
well placed to become a manufacturing powerhouse. But techdriven innovations such as automation, digitisation and artificial
intelligence are radically reshaping the manufacturing sector around
the world. The factories of the future won’t much resemble the
labour-intensive plants of the past, meaning that new manufacturing
capacity is unlikely to drive mass employment. Is the Philippines ready
for this shift? What will it take to put the country at the head of the
tech-focused manufacturing revolution? And what will this mean for
the country’s workforce?
Strategy session: Countering climate change (concurrent)
A typhoon rages through the Philippines, destroying farmland, water
sources and infrastructure, and wreaking havoc on the lives of people
across the archipelago. Sadly, this tale is not an unfamiliar one. As
one of the countries most vulnerable to weather disasters, the
Philippines counts climate change and its effects as part of everyday
life.
Signing the agreement reached at COP21 was an important step
towards managing and mitigating the effects of climate change.
What other measures must be taken? How can the Philippines play a
global leadership role on climate change? What part must the
private sector and the investment community play?
12.30pm
Networking lunch
1.45pm
Panel discussion: Philippines Inc.—More than just a call centre
Seldom has any country been so transformed by one industry as the
Philippines has by call centres. The first business-process outsourcing jobs
appeared in the 1990s, and the industry now employs some 1.2m people
and accounts for about 8% of the Philippines’ GDP. Many are drawn to
the offer of attractive wages and better lifestyles, leaving skill-intensive,
lower-paid jobs to man customer-complaint hotlines.
© 2016 The Economist Events
This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.
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For the Philippines to thrive and for its industry to mature, it must diversify.
Call centres may soon become obsolete as technology develops and
automation takes over repetitive tasks and requests. In its Investment
Priorities Plan, the Aquino government identified key industries for
development, including manufacturing, agribusiness and infrastructure.
But is enough being done to diversify the Philippines’ business
environment? How will industrial policy differ under President Duterte’s
leadership?
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What needs to happen to hasten the Philippines’ industrial
diversification?
Can other industries compete with call centres for top talent?
Do small and medium-sized enterprises have the right supports
in place?
What are the main reforms that business would like to see?
to grow?
Panellist
Noemi Azura, president and chief executive officer, PhilCare
2.30pm
The World If… Trouble on the South China Sea
China fires missiles sinking several Filipino navy ships patrolling the
South China Sea. Its message is clear: the disputed islets belong to
China, and Philippines–US cooperation will not intimidate Beijing. The
new government faces a critical decision: whether to call on its allies
and stand up against China’s military might, or to accept defeat.
This session brings together geopolitical analysts and experts for a
frank discussion considering the prospect of worsening ties with China
amid ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea. How should
the Philippines react to such a scenario? What are the greatest risks it
might face?
Panellists
Bill Hayton, author, South China Sea: the struggle for power in Asia
Aileen Baveria, professor, University of the Philippines
2.55pm
Panel discussion: Inclusive growth
An era of political stability and sustained economic growth has led to
good times in the Philippines. Big business has prospered, and the
middle class is larger and wealthier than before.
But the benefits of growth are not trickling down. According to a 2015
survey by the Philippines Statistics Authority, over 25% of Filipinos live
below the poverty line. That number has changed little despite years
© 2016 The Economist Events
This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.
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of prosperity; the country has missed its commitment to the UN’s
Millennium Development Goals of halving poverty by 2015—and by a
long way.
What is being done to tackle the Philippines’ severe poverty problem?
Will the President Duterte make poverty a priority? What role can
legislation play in employing the masses and lifting millions of Filipinos out
of poverty? What role can technology and the internet access play in
inclusive growth?
Panellists
Tomoko Nishimoto, assistant director-general and regional director for
Asia and the Pacific, International Labour Organisation (ILO)
Gerardo Ablaza, president and chief executive officer, Manila Water
Jan Rutkowski, lead economist, human development economics, Europe
and Central Asia region, World Bank
3.40pm
Networking break
4.10pm
Panel discussion: Get moving—Investing in infrastructure
The domestic auto industry is celebrating: between 2013 and 2015, car
sales in the Philippines jumped 91%. This incredible statistic not only
reflects growth in the middle class, but may also explain why traffic is
such a problem. Motorways routinely become car parks during rush hour.
The public rail system, which if better developed may ease road
congestion, suffers from delays and a lack of investment. Projects have
moved too slowly, encountered roadblocks or suffered because of
policy U-turns. As more people move to cities, the strain on urban
transport systems will only grow.
But infrastructure needs in the Philippines stretch beyond transport. As the
size and sophistication of industry increases and the population grows,
the country’s energy demands are on the rise. Frequent power outages
make doing business challenging, and a coal-heavy energy plan is
unsustainable if the country is going to meet its commitment to tackling
climate change.
At the top, public spending on infrastructure has been notoriously
inadequate. The Aquino administration’s attempts to spur investment
through the public-private partnership (PPP) programme have been a
bright spot, but much more action is needed to help transform the
country’s infrastructure—which could create a better business
environment and stronger long-term growth.
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How does regulation need to change to speed up and
© 2016 The Economist Events
This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.
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improve infrastructure development?
What must happen to improve transportation systems and
ease congestion?
What strategies and initiatives can help meet the country’s
growing energy and power needs?
How can the Philippines foster improvements in
communications infrastructure to help its tech sector prosper?
4.55pm
Keynote interview
5.25pm
Wrap-up and review
Join the conference moderators in this interactive wrap-up of key points
from the day. Tweet your takeaways or share them in person.
5.45pm
Conference close
© 2016 The Economist Events
This is a confidential draft programme for the conference mentioned in this document. All topics and speakers are indicative and subject to change.
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