Download BR-101 Conference Call

BR-101 Conference Call
JANUARY 19th 2012
CONCESSION SUMMARY
On January 18, 2012, Consórcio Rodovia da Vitória was declared the winner of the
Public Bid process for the BR-101 highway.
Composition of the Consortium:
EcoRodovias 80%
SBS Engenharia 20%
• Extension: 475.9 km
• Connects the states of Bahia and Espírito Santo
• 25-year concession
• 7 toll plazas
• Annual toll adjustment based on the IPCA price index
Estimated Schedule of the Bid Notice:
02/24/12 – Publication of the Bid Selection Minutes
04/26/12 – Ratification of the Result
07/05/12 – Execution of the Concession Contract
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CHARACTERISTICS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
State Data:
•Location: Southeastern Brazil
•Population: 3.5 million inhabitants (2010)¹
• GDP: 5.0% Average Annual Growth (2002 to 2010)²
• Volume of Traffic: 1.4 million³
• Major Ports:
Porto de Açu (Rio de Janeiro state)
Porto de Vitória
Porto de Tubarão
Ponta Ubu (under construction)
Porto de Barra do Riacho
Porto de Ilhéus (Bahia state)
¹IBGE: 2010 Census
²Macroeconomic Studies Network (MACRO) - CEE/IJSN
³National Department of Transportation (DENATRAN)
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TRAFFIC INFORMATION
EcoRodovias/SBS expects traffic to experience a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% p.a., 0.6 p.p. more than ANTT’s
estimate.
Assumptions:
• ANTT’s traffic study was conducted in 2009;
• EcoRodovias’ most recent traffic study was in June 2011;
Accumulated Traffic Growth
+33.0%
+15.0%
2009
2010
EcoRodovias
2011
ABCR Index
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TRAFFIC INFORMATION
Premises Used:
• Several studies on traffic and demand carried out by Steer, Davies &
Gleave Brasil, an international consulting company with offices in
Europe, Asia and the Americas;
• Average GDP growth of 3.5%.
• 45.63% discount in basic tariff enables 9.95% increase in projected
demand for traffic
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OPEX
• The dimensions of the New Concessionaire’s organizational
structure were determined by the 13 years of experience that
the EcoRodovias Group has acquired through the management
of its other five highway concessions.
• Shared Services Center
• Comparison with Ecosul (Rio Grande do Sul State):
BR 101
Ecosul
R$ 49.7 million
R$ 39.8 million
475.9
623.8
Toll plazas
7
5
Toll booths
48
33
63,000
25,715
Average Annual OPEX (2011)
Extension (km)
Average Daily Volume (VDM)
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CAPEX
• Related studies and projects by EcoRodovias, SBS and
Copavel (consultant), based mainly on similar models for other
highways (topography and geometry).
• Projects using modern technologies and practices fully
understood by the Group, with proven experience in the
management of highly complex projects, such as the
construction of the Second Lane on the Rodovia dos Imigrantes
(Ecovias) and the expansion of the Marginal Tietê (Ecopistas)
• The proposal includes all the works and associated schedules
in the ANTT Bid Notice, duly quantified and priced at market
levels..
Total CAPEX
Consortium Proposal
R$ 1.7 billion
Project IRR: 10.47%
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FINANCING
BNDES: Up to 80% of investments in the first 6
years of the concession can be financed, with 60%
linked to the TJLP and 20% to the IPCA.
Simulation of actual financing rates:
Description
Rate
Nominal Cost of Debt (Long Term Interest Rate +
spread)
~9.0% pa
Tax Benefit (IR)
34%
Nominal Cost of Debt with Tax Benefit
~5.9% pa
Estimated Inflation
~4.5% pa
Real Cost of Debt Financing
~1.4% pa
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ECONOMIC – FINANCIAL MODEL OF THE FIRST
INVESTMENT PHASE - 2012 to 2017 (First six years)
Equity
R$ 150 million
Accumulated Net Revenue
R$ 705 million
Average EBITDA Margin w/o IFRS
56%
Investment 1st year
R$ 102 million
Accumulated Investments 1st to 6th
R$ 944 million
BNDES Financing (70%)
R$ 661 million
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COMPARISON WITH ECOPISTAS
(Ayrton Senna/Carvalho Pinto)
• Concession agreement in June 2009
• Discount in basic tariff: 45.42%
• IRR from project (proposed): 10.31%
• EBITDA Margin 2011: 65% (without/IFRS)
• Private competition with Nova Dutra highway concession
• Accumulated traffic from June 2009 to June 2011:
22,1% above EcoRodovias´ proposal
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INVESTOR RELATIONS
E-mail
[email protected]
Website
www.ecorodovias.com.br/ri
Address
Rua Gomes de Carvalho, 1510
3rd Floor - CEP: 04547-005
São Paulo-SP BRASIL
Telephone
(11) 3787 2667
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DISCLAIMER
This presentation contains forward-looking
statements relating to the prospects of the business,
estimates for operating and financial results, and
those related to growth prospects of EcoRodovias.
These are merely projections and as such are based
exclusively on the expectations of EcoRodovias’s
management concerning the future of the business
and its continuous access to capital to finance the
Company’s business plan. Such forward-looking
statements depend substantially on changes in
market conditions, government regulations,
competitive pressures and the performance of the
Brazilian and international economies and the
industry, among other factors, as well as the risks
presented in the disclosure documents filed by
EcoRodovias, and therefore are subject to change
without prior notice.
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