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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS November 2, 2012 New York, NY Discussions Internal and External disruptions State of the Economy Labor Market Housing Market REAL GDP Rate Household Consumption Increasing Even though Disposable Income is Decreasing Consumer Sentiment is Optimistic Despite the “Fiscal Cliff” Retail Sales Fixed Investment & Government Spending Lagging The Housing Sector is Recovering New Residential Construction Rate Construction Spending Rate Mortgage Rates at a low… New Home Sale Rate Home Price Index Rate Financial Markets Recovering Some Ground… Unemployment Rate Civilian Unemployment Nonfarm Payroll Employment Rate Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Price Stability Rate Household Debt Service and Financial Obligation Ratios Household Consumption Rate Nominal Interest Rates TIPPS-10 YEAR Exports in the decline Oil Prices in the Decline= More Disposable income for Consumers U.S Foreign Exchange Rates Too much money laying around the Reserves Commercial & Industrial Loans in the Decline Unemployment is still too high The Unemployed are becoming Unemployable.. The Euro zone Economy= Drag for the U.S Recovery? Emerging Economies Cooling Down