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Forests as mitigation tools in Hungary András HUSZÁR [email protected] Climate Policy Desk Officer Department for Climate Policy Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April Outline 1. Introduction 2. Forests in Hungary 3. The Role of Forests in Carbon Sink in the Future 4. Climate Change and Forests 5. Carbon Balance Change 6. Summary Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 2 Scientific background and source Dr. Zoltán Somogyi Dr. Borbála Gálos Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary [email protected] Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, University of West Hungary [email protected] • National Food Chain Safety Office (NFCSO), Hungarian Forest Management: https://www.nebih.gov.hu/en/specialities/erdeszet • Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO): https://www.ksh.hu/environment • National Inventory Report for 1985-2013, Hungary (2015) Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 3 Introduction Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 4 Introduction Source: WWF Forest & Climate Programme Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 5 Forests in Hungary Source: NFCSO, 2015 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 6 Forests in Hungary Source: NCSO, 2015 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 7 Forests in Hungary Source: HCSO, 2015 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 8 The Role of Forests in Carbon Sink in the Past The sources of emissions and removals in the L-FL category Source: National Inventory Report for 1985-2013, Hungary (HMS 2015) Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 9 A Tool to Estimate the Role of Forest Carbon Sink CASMOFOR: CArbon Sequestration MOdel for FORestations - an accounting model to assess the removals and emissions of carbon by afforestations Source: http://www.scientia.hu/casmofor/indexE.php Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 10 Forest carbon balance under „normal” climate Baseline scenario (i.e. assuming no climate change) for beech forests in Zala country, Hungary Source: Somogyi Z. 2014 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 11 Climate Change in Hungary wetter Projected climate tendencies for Hungary dryer warmer IPCC emission scenario: A1B Error bars: „likely range” of the projected changes Source: Gálos, B. et al. 2015 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 12 Forests might disappear due to projected climate change A B Modeled future tree species distribution maps for 2036–2065 (A) and 2071–2100 (B), beech – blue, sessile oak – green, Turkey oak – red, no forest – white Source: Móricz N. et al. 2013 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 13 Forest may become huge sources of carbon „Climate change” scenario for beech forests in Zala country, Hungary Source: Somogyi Z. 2014 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 14 Forest carbon balance change For the area where sessile oak replaces beech in Zala country, Hungary Source: Somogyi Z. 2014 Tuczno, Poland 26-29 April 15 Climate Change and Forests (REMO) Effects of an assumed amunt of afforestation on the summer precipitation in 3 Hungarian sub-regions Climate change due to GHG concentration increase 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990 Climate change due to potential afforestation 2071-2100 (carbon cycle not considered!) Climate change due to GHG concentration increase & afforestation 2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990 Source: Gálos, B. et al. 2011 16 Summary • The climatic effects of forest cover change can affect the projected climate change due to GHG concentration increase • Forests can have large potential to climate change mitigation! Practical application: Assessment of the climatic benefit of forests and their role in adapting to climate change + regional differences Our models provide basic information for adaptation and mitigation strategies 17