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Future Directions
in
Globally Coordinated
Climate Change Research
Primary Sources:
IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
New Scenarios
Global scenarios for two time periods
• “near-term” scenarios  2035
- potential for “prediction”
- directly linked to policy planning
• “long-term” scenarios  2100 and ultimately  2300
- climate targets for avoiding risks
- long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
Approaches to Scenario Development
Previous (e.g., SRES)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Planned (e.g., RCP)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
Expected Representative Concentration Pathways
RCP8.5
• > 8.5 W/m2 in 2100
• rising
RCP6
• ~ 6 W/m2 in 2100
• stabilization
RCP4.5
• 4.5 W/m2 in 2100
• stabilization
RCP3-PD
• peak 3 W/m2 before 2100
• decline after peak
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
ocean
atmosphere
CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models)
resolution
decadal
long-term
atmos.-only
horiz. (deg)
1.76
1.97
0.59
levels
25
34
34
horiz. (deg)
0.93
0.95
NA
levels
38
39
NA
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
Future Directions
in
Globally Coordinated
Climate Change Research
END
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
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