Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Aug/2005 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL RESULT The Central Government (National Treasury, Social Security System and Central Bank) registered a primary surplus of R$4.3 billion in August, raising the cumulative surplus in the year to R$49.4 billion (3.92% of GDP). The National Treasury contributed to this result by posting a surplus of R$7.1 billion, while the Social Security System (RGPS) and Central Bank turned in deficits of R$2.6 billion and R$216.5 million, respectively. With 28.9% growth In August the Central Government registered a primary surplus of approximately R$4.3 billion, compared to R$5.1 billion in July. in IRPJ and CSLL inflows in the January-August 2005 period compared to the same period of 2004, revenue inflows were better than previously expected by the government. On the expenditure side, outlays on personnel, excluding employer contributions to civil service social security plans (CPSS), expanded 8.2%, reflecting growth that was higher than IPCA-measured inflation. Spending on benefits increased 17.2%, approximately twice per capita GDP growth projected for 2005, and contributed significantly to the 22.9% rise in the Social Security deficit. Transfers to states and municipalities expanded 23.7% in the first eight months of the year vis-à-vis the same period of 2004. The heading of “other current and capital spending”, which includes discretionary spending, MAIN VARIATIONS ACCUMULATED 2005/2004 DISCRIMINATION % Revenues 17.1% 17.5% Treasury 15.4% Social Security/ 23.7% Transfers Net Revenue 15.8% 14.8% Expenditures 17.2% Benefits 8.2% Payroll 17.6% Current and Capital turned in normal results in keeping with the traditional seasonal factors that mark the early days of the second half of the year (expansion of 13.9% when compared to 2004). TABLE 1 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT PRIMARY BALANCE(*) BRAZIL, 2004-2005 R$ Million DESCRIPTION I. TOTAL REVENUE I.1. National Treasury Revenues I.1.1 Gross Revenue I.1.2. (-) Restitutions I.1.3. (-) Fiscal Incentives I.2. Social Security Revenues I.3. Central Bank Revenues II. TRANSFERS TO STATES AND MUNICIPALITIES III. TOTAL NET REVENUE (I-II) IV. TOTAL EXPENDITURE IV.1. Payroll IV.2. Social Security Benefits IV.3. Current and Capital Expenditures IV.3.1. Worker Support Fund (FAT) IV.3.2. Economic Subsidies and Grants (1) IV.3.3. Assistance Benefits (LOAS/RMV) IV.3.4. Other Current and Capital Expenditures IV.4. Transfer from Treasury to Central Bank IV.5. Central Bank Expenditures V. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT PRIMARY RESULT (III - IV) V.1. National Treasury V.2. Social Security (RGPS) (2) V.3. Central Bank (3) VIII. PRIMARY RESULT/GDP JUL AGO 2005 2005 40,193.2 31,604.4 33,960.4 -2,356.0 8,474.5 114.3 6,463.2 33,730.0 28,621.0 8,315.0 11,561.3 8,567.3 1,309.3 525.5 821.7 5,910.8 49.3 128.1 5,109.1 8,209.6 -3,086.8 -13.8 39,247.9 30,212.3 31,297.7 -1,085.4 8,952.4 83.3 6,751.1 32,496.9 28,234.7 6,724.3 11,560.7 9,627.2 1,737.4 383.6 826.6 6,679.6 22.7 299.8 4,262.2 7,087.0 -2,608.3 -216.5 JAN-AGO 2004 268,595.8 210,295.5 219,351.7 -9,056.1 57,567.6 732.6 44,226.5 224,369.2 183,387.4 52,652.6 75,294.9 54,193.7 6,136.8 2,544.3 4,800.5 40,712.1 372.2 873.9 40,981.8 58,850.43 -17,727.3 -141.3 3.61% 2005 314,584.0 247,163.4 255,118.6 -7,955.2 66,456.2 964.5 54,721.0 259,863.0 210,507.4 56,987.1 88,240.6 63,708.9 7,415.3 4,045.9 5,896.0 46,351.7 392.9 1,178.0 49,355.6 71,353.51 -21,784.4 -213.6 3.92% CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE BRAZIL JAN-AGO (%GDP) DISCRIMINATION 2004 2005 Total Revenue 23.63% 24.97% Transfers 3.89% 4.34% Net Revenue 19.74% 20.62% Total Expenditures 16.13% 16.71% Primary Balance 3.61% 3.92% (*) Data revised, subject to changes. Does not include FGTS contribution revenues or monetary restatement complement expenses as (1) As of 2005, includes expenditures with reordering of liabilities. (2) Contribution Revenues less Social Security Benefits. (3) Administrative expenditures net of own revenues (includes transfers from the National Treasury). Central Government Fiscal Result 1 Aug/2005 The August result was below that of the previous month due to the NATIONAL TREASURY EXPENDITURES BRAZIL, JAN-AGO (R$ millions) DESCRIPTION JUL AGO 8,315.00 6,724.30 PAYROLL 8,567.30 9,627.20 Capital and Current 1,309.30 1,737.40 FAT 525.50 383.60 Subsidies LOAS/RMV 821.70 826.60 5,910.80 6,679.60 Others 49.30 22.70 Transfers to BACEN seasonal nature of those taxes that are calculated on a quarterly basis (CSLL, IRPJ and the financial compensation participation quota) and paid in July. There was no corresponding inflow in the month under analysis. On the expenditure side, cutbacks in outflows on personnel and payroll charges (share of annual wage bonus in July) were offset by increased current and capital expenditures. It should be stressed that, despite the drop in unemployment that has followed upon the process of job creation, particularly in the formal market, outlays under the heading of the wage bonus and FAT unemployment compensation outlays were significant. Following the scheduled availability of resources and budget and financial program limitations imposed by the National Treasury in the period, expenses paid by the executive branch also increased. Transfers to states and municipalities expanded in the month as a result of transfer of financial compensation participation quotas received in July, despite transfer of the CIDE in that month. There were no corresponding transfers in the month of August. Growth in National Treasury revenues has resulted from economic performance in the current year, particularly the profitability levels of the various export sectors (metallurgy and mining, for example) and regulated services (postal services, electricity and telecommunications), and international market oil prices. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE BRAZIL, JAN-AGO 314.6 350.0 2004 2005 268.6 280.0 210.5 183.4 210.0 140.0 44.2 70.0 54.7 0.0 Revenues NATIONAL TREASURY BALANCE BRAZIL BRAZIL JAN-AGO (% GDP) DISCRIMINATION 2004 2005 Treasury Revenue 18.50% 19.62% Transfers 3.89% 4.34% Treasury Expenditures 9.43% 9.61% 5.18% 5.66% Primary Balance Transfers Expenditures For the year, the primary Central Government result has been driven by revenues generated by the excellent economic performance achieved by the productive sector and international oil prices. Surpassing government expectations, the IRPJ and the CSLL collected up to August 2005 surpassed revenues in the same period of 2004 by R$7.6 billion (28.9%) and R$3.9 billion (28.8%), respectively. Revenues reflecting the financial compensation participation quota, mostly involving special participation and royalties on the working of petroleum and gas reserves, expanded R$2.3 billion (30.1%) this year. Taken together, these three taxes explain the almost 40% increase in the Central Government Fiscal Result 2 Aug/2005 nominal National Treasury inflow in the period (R$36.9 billion), even though this corresponds to no more than one quarter of the total registered under these revenues. With the excellent performance of these taxes (IRPJ and participation quota are shared), transfers to states and municipalities rose 23.7%, equivalent to R$10.5 billion in nominal terms and 0.45 percentage points of GDP. Outlays on personnel, excluding employer contributions to the civil service social security plan (CPSS), expanded R$4.3 billion (8.2%) in nominal terms. This was higher than inflation measured by the IPCA (7.3%), meaning that there has been slight real growth in payroll up to the moment. In the year, most recent estimates indicate that the federal government payroll came to R$93.4 billion, 11.6% higher than last year. This result would represent real growth of 6.2% over the IPCA target (5.1%). Current and capital spending was considerably more dynamic, closing with expansion of 17.6%. The highpoints were acquisitions of land for purposes of agrarian reform (TDA and Land Fund), which increased 93.4% over 2004, rising to a total of R$691.6 million up to August, together Outlays on personnel are expected to total R$93.4 billion in the year, 11.6% more than in 2004. In real terms, this growth corresponds to 6.2% over the central IPCA target in the year (5.1%) and is a consequence of the human resources policy adopted by the federal government, particularly as regards wage increases to specific government careers. with outlays on assistance benefits (LOAS/RMV), R$1.1 billion (22.8%) above the corresponding figure through August of last year. Aside from this, mention should also be made of atypical outlays resulting from restructuring of liabilities (transfers to Emgea) – R$1.2 billion – and debts with the federal government, under the terms of PESA (R$276.7 million). There was no corresponding heading in the previous year. SOCIAL SECURITY Despite growth in Social Security contribution revenues (15.4%), REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES consequent upon increased job generation in the formal market segment over the BRAZIL, 2004/2005 last21.0 twelve months, the system deficit reached 1.73% of GDP, reflecting an increase of R$4.1 billion (22.9%) compared to the same Revenues period of the previous Expenditures year. 17.8However, the revenue increase (R$8.9 billion) should be viewed against a In the year, the growth of expenditures with social security (17,2%) overcomes the growth of contribution revenues (15,4%). The social security balance to August grows, with that, 22,9% in relation to equal period of 2004. 17.2% rise in benefit outlays (R$12.9 billion), corresponding to more than twice R$ biillions the14.6 normal growth in per capita GDP projected for this ye 11.6 11.4 9.0 8.2 10.2 7.6 5.0 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Central Government Fiscal Result Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 3 Aug/2005 Despite growth in Social Security contribution revenues (15.4%), consequent upon increased job generation in the formal market segment over the SOCIAL SECURITY BALANCE BRAZIL, JAN-AGO (% GDP) DISCRIMINATION 2004 2005 5.06% 5.27% Contribution 6.62% 7.00% Benefits -1.56% -1.73% Primary Balance last twelve months, the system deficit reached 1.73% of GDP, reflecting an increase of R$4.1 billion (22.9%) compared to the same period of the previous year. However, the revenue increase (R$8.9 billion) should be viewed against a 17.2% rise in benefit outlays (R$12.9 billion), corresponding to more than twice the normal growth in per capita GDP projected for this year. Central Government Fiscal Result 4