Download Resilience

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Sensitivity analysis wikipedia , lookup

Transport wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
Technische Universität München
COST working group 2 –
EMM Erreichbarkeitsatlas
Edinburgh - October 13th, 2011
Johannes Keller, TU München
[email protected]
Technische Universität München
Development of project
•
Start 2008
•
EMM e.V. = European Metropolitan Area Munich
 Marketing and debating platform with different thematic working groups:
education, culture, economy, environment, mobility
•
Pilot project „Accessibiliy Atlas“
– First step: regional database, published 2010
– Currently:
o cooperation on county level to develop the local level and
applications in strategic land-use and transport planning
o „Stress-tests“ for sustainable mobility
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse
Technische Universität München
- Spatial resolution: municipalities
Stand heute
- Ergebnisse
 consistent
data availability
- Development of submodels for local analyses
- OpenStreetMap network data
- CORINE Land Cover Land Use Data
o disaggregation of structural data
o speeds in built-up areas
- Public Transport timetables from authorities or publications
- Webtool version (should be launched one of these days…)
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse
Technische Universität München
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse
Technische Universität München
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse
Technische Universität München
Stress-test for sustainable mobility
Two interesting study regions:
- European Metropolitan Region
of Munich
- Metropolitan Region Lyon
Two teams:
- Department of urban structure and transport planning / TUM
- Laboratory of Transport Economics / LET
Opportunities of collaboration:
- PhD Summer school 2009 (Frauenchiemsee) with BFHZ
- Joint proposal to WCTR … NECTAR …  PREDIT
Technische Universität München
Stress tests - Research questions
• Which locations (e.g. in terms of economics) and which groups of
society are mostly in danger to suffer from social exclusion in the
face of the scenarios?
• How are different transport modes affected? Are existing public
transport systems able to step into the breach? If not, which
investments are necessary to prepare public transport for possible
new challenges?
• Which new opportunities and challenges will arise for electric
mobility as well as neighbourhood mobility?
• How can land-use patterns (jobs, shops, homes ...) be relocated to
avoid severe accessibility drops?
Technische Universität München
Three dimensions of vulnerability



Exposure is the contact between system and
stress
Sensitivity is the degree to which sth./so. is
affected by exposure to stress
Resilience is the ability of sth./so. to absorb
stresses wo. changes in its fundamental structure
or function
(Kaspersons et al. 2006)
Technische Universität München
Suggestions for indicators
•
•
•
Exposure:
- Vehicle-km / household
- (Commuting distances)
- Cars per household
- …
Sensitivity:
- Unemployment rate
- Income/taxes
Resilience:
- Accessibility
- Age
- Family situation
Technische Universität München
Exposure: Car ownership
Technische Universität München
Sensitivity: Unemployment rate
Technische Universität München
Sensitivity: Monthly income
Technische Universität München
Resilience: Accessibility for public transport
Technische Universität München
Resilience: Accessibility for PC/PT
Technische Universität München
Schnittstelle Raum - IV
IV-Modell (GIS-OSD)
Raumstrukturmodell (GIS)
Anbindung der
Zentroiden ans
Netz
Raumstrukturzelle
Netzmodell
Geometrische Form
ID: [Attributname]
Name
JOI N
Weitere Attribute
Raumstrukturpotenzial
Erreichbarkeit
Erreichbarkeit (Excel)
Raumwiderstandsmatrix
Erri   Pj * f ( wij )
Zielzellen n
j
Raumwiderstände (1  n)
Startzellen m
Koordinaten (x,y) des Zentroiden
Bestweg Algorithmus
Raumwiderstände (m  n)
…
Raumwiderstände (M  n)
Technische Universität München
Schnittstelle Raum - ÖV
ÖV-Modell (VISUM)
Raumstrukturmodell (GIS)
Raumstrukturzelle
Geometrische Form
Liniennetzmodell
Koordinaten (x,y) des Zentroiden
Fahrplanmodell
Name
Weitere Attribute
Raumstrukturpotenzial
Repräsentative Haltestelle
Erreichbarkeit
Erreichbarkeit (Excel)
Bestweg Algorithmus
Raumwiderstandsmatrix
Erri   Pj * f ( wij )
Zielhaltestellen n
j
Starthaltestellen m
ID: [Attributname]
JOI N
Haltestellenmodell
Raumwiderstände (1  n)
Raumwiderstände (m  n)
…
Raumwiderstände (M  n)
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse
Technische Universität München
Stand heute - Ergebnisse