Download economic-update---hsbc - Long Island Import Export Association

Economic Update
Ryan Wang, US Economist
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
[email protected]
+1 212 525 3181
February 2012
Advanced economics: Just over 50% of US exports
Import volumes: Advanced economies (excluding the US)
15
104
% Year-on-Year, LHS
Index (2007 = 100), RHS
10
100
5
96
0
92
-5
88
-10
84
-15
80
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
2
Eurozone import volumes have stalled
10
105
5
100
0
95
Import volumes: Euro Area
-5
90
% Year-on-Year, LHS
Index (2007 = 100), RHS
-10
85
-15
80
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
3
Emerging Asia
25
140
Import volumes: Emerging Asia
20
130
% Year-on-Year, LHS
Index (2007 = 100), RHS
15
120
10
110
5
100
0
90
-5
80
-10
70
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
4
Latin America
30
130
Industrial production: Latin America
20
120
% Year-on-Year, LHS
Index (2007 = 100), RHS
10
110
0
100
-10
90
-20
80
-30
70
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
5
A more challenging external environment for the US
16
Export volumes: United States
12
120
% Year-on-Year, LHS
Index (2007 = 100), RHS
115
8
110
4
105
0
100
-4
95
2012 forecast
-8
90
-12
85
-16
80
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: US Census Bureau, 2012 growth = HSBC forecast
6
US: Home sales are slower today than 10 years ago
8.5
8.0
Total home sales (both new
and existing homes), millions
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors
7
US: This means the housing market is highly imbalanced
11
10
Months supply of existing homes available for sale
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: National Association of Realtors
8
US: The loss of housing wealth
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
60
65
70
75
80
Recessions
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
Home equity to home value ratio
Source: Federal Reserve
9
US: Job seekers still in a difficult position
7
7
6
6
Recessions
5
5
Number of unemployed
persons per job opening
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
US: An uphill struggle for the labor market
65
64
63
62
61
Recessions
Employed workers as a percentage of adult population
60
59
58
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
US debt outlook changed dramatically in 2008
100
CBO Projections: Federal Debt as a % of GDP
90
2011 projections
2007 projections
80
70
2011 = 67%
60
50
40
30
20
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
96
99
02
05
08
11
14
17
20
Source: Congressional Budget Office, HSBC calculations
12
Fiscal austerity is subtracting from US economic growth
0.8
Government ppt contribution to real GDP growth over the past year:
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Federal government
State and local government investment
State and local government consumption
Total government
-0.4
-0.6
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13
2012: Year 4 of US government layoffs
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
Change in government employment over
the past year as a % of all employment:
-0.2
-0.3
05
06
Local government
07
08
State government
09
10
11
12
Federal government
Total government
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
Fed anticipates “exceptionally low” rates through 2014
FOMC's Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming:
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2012
2013
2014
Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End, %
Longer run
Source: Federal Reserve
15
US: Delinquency rates: On the right track?
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel
16