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REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA:
Strong Credit in Euro Zone
Ministry of Finance
Republic of Slovenia
AGENDA
 COUNTRY OVERVIEW
 KEY STRENGTHS
 STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST YEARS
 POLICY RESPONSE TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
 FINANCING PROGRAMME
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AGENDA
 COUNTRY OVERVIEW
 KEY STRENGTHS
 STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST YEARS
 POLICY RESPONSE TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
 FINANCING PROGRAMME
3
Slovenia: Member of the euro area for five years
Country Overview
 Euro area member for over three years (joined 1
January 2007)
 Prudent fiscal policy track record and steady
competitiveness position
 Low government debt with low borrowing
requirement in the future
 Sound banking system with low exposure to toxic
assets
 Solid economic fundamentals and adequate policy
response to crisis to mitigate its impact
 Government committed to stability and sustained
reform
Hungary
Austria
Italy
Slovenia
Croatia
 Population of 2 mn
 Track record of strong macroeconomic
performance
 GDP per capita 87% of EU average
 Stable multi-party democracy
 Joined the euro area in January 2007
 Joined OECD in June 2010
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A strong sovereign credit in the euro zone
Country Overview
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Single A credit rating (A2/A+/A)
Well diversified and open economy
Sustained real convergence
Low general government debt burden (45% of GDP in 2011)
ECB eligibility for government paper
Well recognized economic and political stability
Belgium
Aa3/AA/AA
Slovenia
A2/A+/A
Spain
A3/A/A
Italy
A3/BBB+/A-
Source: Mood’y/Standard & Poors/Fitch (3 January 2011)
AAA
AA+
AA
AAA+
A
ABBB+
BBB
BBBBB+
BB
CC
DK; FI; DE; LU; NL; SE; UK
AU; FR
BE
EE
SLOVENIA
CZ; SK; SP
MT; PL
IRL; IT
BG; LT
HU
CY; RO
PT; LV
GR
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AGENDA
 COUNTRY OVERVIEW
 KEY STRENGTHS
 STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST YEARS
 POLICY RESPONSE TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
 FINANCING PROGRAMME
6
Key Strengths
Key strengths
 „A“ rating country with low general government debt (45% 2011)
 Strong growth in the past and big convergence to EU levels
 Good labor market performance
 Low indebtedness of household and stabile housing market
 Good structure of secondary market with relative high liquidity (monthly turnover around 1,5 billions EUR)
 Stabile debt profile (yearly refinancing risk around 1,5 billions EUR)
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AGENDA
 COUNTRY OVERVIEW
 KEY STRENGTHS
 STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST YEARS
 POLICY RESPONSE TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
 FINANCING PROGRAMME
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High and sustained degree of real convergence
Strong Economic Performance over Past Years
 The Republic of Slovenia has the highest GDP per capita
among CEE countries ...
 … and the gap vs the other EU countries was closing fast
and will continue to do this in the future
 The real GDP growth outpaced that of the euro area
for the last 10 years.
Source: Eurostat
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Slovenia has a highly diversified economy
Strong Economic Performance over Past Years
 Comparable to EU, member states, growth is driven by
manufacturing and services, successful and growing
tourism industry, small agricultural sector.
 Focus on high value-added exports
 More than two thirds of exports destined for EU.
 EUR 23 bn exports of goods and services in 2010; 66%
of GDP
 Main trading partner: Germany, Italy, France, Austria;
also majority of FDI from same countries
Source: SORS
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Good labour market performance
Strong Economic Performance over Past Years
 The unemployment rate in Slovenia is lower than in many EU core countries like France and Finland.
 Even with global crisis were able to not increase unemployment rate due to focus on job saving measures.
 In terms of total employment Slovenia ranks #9 in the EU 27.
Source: Eurostat
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Competitiveness and convergence to EU levels
Strong Economic Performance over Past Years
 Slovenia remained in the group of euro area countries with relatively greater losses in cost competitiveness during the
crisis
 Stagnation of labor productivity in last year; need to increase labor productivity to continue convergence to EMU
levels.
Source: Eurostat
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Strong market share
Strong Economic Performance over Past Years
 Current account strongly depend on external factors
but stable
 During the crisis able to defend market position in EU
area
Source: Eurostat, October 2010 (provisional data)
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Good financial position, sound banking system
and housing market
Strong Economic Performance over Past Years
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Low external indebtedness of the economy
Lowest household indebtedness in EMU 30% of GDP
Banking sector assets in GDP only one third of EMU average
Banking system’s cross-border indebtedness of about 46% of
GDP
Comfortable banking system capital adequacy of 12.1%
and Tier 1 of 9.9% (September 2011)
Short-term net creditor position of domestic banking system
vis-a-vis euro area
Banking system’s external debt maturity profile is spread out
(bulk more than 2 years)
Banks have low exposure to toxic assets
Source: Eurostat
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AGENDA
 COUNTRY OVERVIEW
 KEY STRENGTHS
 STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST YEARS
 POLICY RESPONSE TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
 FINANCING PROGRAMME
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Global financial crisis
Policy response to global financial crisis
 Substantial decrease of investment in Slovenia during
last two years
 Saving rate remain high, above 15% on annual level
 Problem of huge decrease of loans to non-financial
corporation
Source: Eurostat
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Stabilization and gradual recovery in line
with major trading partners
Policy response to global financial crisis
Source: Eurostat
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Coordinated EU policy response to crisis …
… in line with existing debt levels.
Policy response to global financial crisis
 Budgetary stimulus aims at limiting the impact of decline in
external demand on productive capacity and jobs.
 Three types of policy measures:
1. Slowing down the impact of the crisis on enterprises;
2. Enhancing enterprise financial liquidity and safeguarding
existing jobs;
3. Increasing expenditure in research and education to
improve the growth potential of the economy.
 Budgetary policy economic support package in 2009
equivalent to 1.6% of GDP. Most of the measures of
temporary nature.
 Additional support to small and medium size enterprises in
the form of borrowing guarantees of up to EUR 1.2 bn.
Financial system support measures include:
 Full retail deposit guarantee
 Guarantees for bank borrowing (EUR 12 bn) up to 5 years,
pricing according to EU/ECB guidelines
 On-lending to banks, insurance, reinsurances, pension
companies
 Capital injections
 Purchase of claims (Banks)
Measures other than deposit guarantee are subject to relevant
supervisory institution’s endorsement.
Measures to be gradually phased out with normalization of
financial markets and in accordance with EU decisions.
Source: European Commission. Ameco
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Fiscal consolidation and policy response
Policy response to global financial crisis
 2010 and 2011 adopted budgets foresee full withdrawal of
fiscal stimulus by the end of 2010; however, Slovenia will
act in line with EU and EMU policies and
recommendations.
 Gradual, primarily expenditure driven fiscal consolidation
over the medium term. Deficit below 3% of GDP by 2013
 Rationalization and discontinuation of inefficient
government programs
 Rationalization of cost of public administration
 Rationalization and better targeting of social transfers
 Shifting investment financing towards EU funds
 Increase in excises’ rates and widening social security
contribution tax base
 Government proposal of further modernization and
reform of pension system to contribute to long-term
sustainability of public finances is to be submitted to the
parliament for discussion and to be passed into law.
 Gradual fiscal consolidation over the past years
 2009 deficit reflects strong economic downturn on tax
revenue (automatic stabilizers) and discretionary policy to
offset the impact of the crisis.
 Fiscal policy to reduce deficit below 3% of GDP by 2013.
Source: Eurostat
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Policy response under new government-in-office
Policy response to global financial crisis
 Committed to limit the general government debt on level 45% of GDP; putting debt ceiling in the Constitution
 Ceiling the public spending to 45% of GDP
 Lowering the labor cost by introduction of social contribution cap, changing the personal income brackets
 Introduction of tax havens for new business, 40% tax deduction for investment
 Solving the banking problem (credit crunch)
 Additional de-bureaucracy of public services
 Pension reform
 Health reform
 Lowering the price of dwellings
 Centralization of public borrowing on financial markets…
Source: Eurostat
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AGENDA
 COUNTRY OVERVIEW
 KEY STRENGTHS
 STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST YEARS
 POLICY RESPONSE TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
 FINANCING PROGRAMME
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The borrowing requirement
Financing programme
2012
 The max. gross borrowing: EUR 4.7 bn
 Purpose of borrowing:
 Gross borrowing for 2012 central government budget: EUR 2.8 bn
 Pre-financing of debt due for redemption in 2013 and 2014:
 Already executed borrowing:
 Pre-financing of part of 2012 repayments executed in 2011:
 Central Government Budget financing EUR 0.6 bn
EUR 2.9 bn
EUR 1.0 bn
 Expected structure of borrowing at the end of 2012:
 Short term (end of the year):
EUR 250 mn
 Long term
Up to EUR 2.5 bn
 Established issuer in the euro debt market
 International structure of primary dealers with strong domestic institutions:
 Abanka; Barclay Capital; BNP Paribas; Credit Agricole CIB; Commerzbank; Deutsche Bank; Goldman Sachs; HSBC; ING;
Jefferies; JP Morgan; Nova Ljubljanska Banka; Société Générale CIB; UniCredit Banka Slovenija
 Newly issued bonds trading on major international trading platforms:
 MTS Slovenia (www.mtsslovenia.com), Bloomberg (SLOREP Govt <GO>), Bondvision
 Benchmark size issues to ensure liquidity (minimum EUR 1 bn)
 Bonds in new S&P Eurozone Government Bond Index
 MTS Slovenia established since March 2007 (www.mtsslovenia.com):
 Currently 17 system participants (14 international and 3 from Slovenia)
 9 bonds on the system (http://www.mtsdata.com/content/data/public/rsl/bulletin/,
http://www.mtsdata.com/content/data/public/rsl/fixing/)
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 Broaden investor base to increase integration of Slovenia’s signature in the euro area
Strong performance and support
Financing programme
Name
Issue Date
Maturity
Cpn
Mid Price
Mid Yield
Bid Spr vs
Bid Spr vx
MS (current)
MS (at lunch)
bps
Ratings
Size EUR mn
Dur (yrs)
Slovenia 02/14
A2/A+/A
1,5
2.4.2009
2.4.2014
4,375%
102,174
3,291%
160 bps
221,0
1,922
Slovenia 03/15
A2/A+/A
1
17.3.2010
17.3.2015
2,750%
97,994
3,452%
37 bps
220,4
2,806
Slovenia 02/16
A2/A+/A
1,2
17.1.2005
17.1.2016
4,000%
99,729
4,075%
268,7
3,614
Sloven 03/18
A2/A+/A
1
22.3.2007
22.3.2018
4,000%
95,015
4,969%
-8 bps
320,0
5,045
Slovenia 02/19
A2/A+/A
1
6.2.2008
6.2.2019
4,375%
95,957
0,051
-3 bps
316,8
5,820
Slovenia 01/20
A2/A+/A
1,5
26.1.2010
26.1.2020
4,125%
89,940
0,057
68 bps
369,4
6,463
Slovenia 01/21
A2/A+/A
1,5
18.1.2011
18.1.2021
4,375%
90,145
0,058
125 bps
367,2
7,038
Slovenia 09/24
A2/A+/A
1,5
9.9.2009
9.9.2024
4,625%
90,403
0,057
80 bps
327,5
8,911
Slovenia 03/26
A2/A+/A
1,5
30.3.2011
30.3.2026
5,125%
88,691
0,064
130 bps
387,2
9,043
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Strong relative performance in turbulent times
Financing programme
Most debt denominated in local currency
Outstanding debt by type of currency (31.12.11)
 EUR:
 USD:
 Other:
99.8%
0.0%
0.2%
Source: MTS.
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Your contacts
Republic of Slovenia
Ministry of Finance
Treasury Directorate
Boštjan Plešec
Director General
[email protected]
Tel: +386 1 369 6410
Public Debt Management Department
Maja Praprotnik
Head of Department
[email protected]
Tel: +386 1 369 6440
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