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Supporting Online Material for Ecological consequences of body size decline in harvested fish species: positive feedback loops in trophic interactions amplify human impact Asta Audzijonyte*, Anna Kuparinen, Rebecca Gorton and Elizabeth A.Fulton *To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: [email protected] This file includes: Feeding functional response equation Details on the selectivity curve parameters Figures S1, S2, S3 and S4 Tables S1, S2, S3, S4 and S5 Feeding functional response equation The decrease in size-at-age was achieved by modifying the maximum growth rate (mum_predator) values in the feeding functional response equation: consumption_of_prey_x = available_biomass_of_prey_x * biomass_predator * clearance_rate_predator / (1.0 + total_available_prey_biomass * assimilation_efficiency_of_predator * clearance_rate_predator / mum_predator) Multiple functional responses are available in Atlantis. In this case a form of Holling Type II was used. Other functional responses were not trialled in this case, as previous studies had shown that ecosystemlevel conclusions are typically robust to the selection of the functional form so long as extremes of biomass are avoided. See E.A. Fulton et al. 2003. Ecological Modelling 169: 157 – 178 Selectivity curve and parameters Fishing was done using logistic selectivity curve, where retention probability at length L is 1/(1 + exp(-b*(L-a))) Here a is the inflection point (or 50% selectivity) and b is the shape parameter. The parameter values for the five harvested species are: a b Morwong 28.0 0.5 Warehou 21.0 0.25 Blue grenadier 50.0 0.35 Flathead 33.2 0.5 Ling 50.0 0.35 Figure S1: Map of the Atlantis-SE model domain. The polygons indicate individual geographic boxes, each with its own vertical structure (one example column is provided for reference). Detailed description of the processes are given in Fulton et al. 2004 (operational equations given as an electronic supplement here) and Fulton et al. 2007 chapters 2.1-2.3 available http://atlantis.cmar.csiro.au/ Figure S2. Flowchart of the main physical, ecological and fisheries processes used in the Atlantis model. Data sources used to parameterise the model are described in Fulton et al. 2007 chapters 3.1-3.4. available http://atlantis.cmar.csiro.au/ Figure S3. Food-web diagram indicating links among the functional groups in the Atlantis model. The matrices indicating the strength of the feeding interactions (maximum availability of a given prey to a predator) from the two alternative parameter sets are given in Table S6). Figure S4: Maps of the Atlantis-SE model domain showing long term changes in the spatial distributions of grenadier juveniles between scenario with fast decrease in size-at-age (R4) and fishing at 0.2 (red), and scenario without directional size decline (R0) and same fishing level (blue). Table S1: List of biological groups in Atlantis-SE and whether they are represented as biomass pools, age structured biomass pool (i.e. biomass pools for juveniles separate to adults) or full age-structured populations (where the size and numbers per age class are followed). Species that were fished and decreasing in body size are highlighted in bold font Group Pelagic groups Large phytoplankton Small phytoplankton Small zooplankton Mesozooplankton Large zooplankton Gelatinous zooplankton Pelagic bacteria Cephalopods Composition Type Diatoms Picophytoplankton Heterotrophic flagellates Copepods Krill and chaetognaths Salps (pryosomes), coelenterates Pelagic attached and free-living bacteria Sepioteuthis australis, Notodarus gouldi Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Age structured biomass pool Aerobic and anaerobic bacteria Polychaetes Holothurians, echinoderms, burrowing bivalves Sponges, corals, crinoids, bivalves Mussels, oysters, sponges, corals Pecten fumatus Urchins, Haliotis laevigata, Haliotis rubra, gastropods Crustacea, asteroids, molluscs Stomatopods, octopus, seastar, gastropod, and non-commercial crustaceans Jasus edwardsii, Jasus verreauxi Meiobenthos Kelp Seagrass Haliporoides sibogae Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Redfish Morwong Ling Engraulis, Sardinops, sprat Emmelichthyidae (Emmelichthys nitidus) Trachurus declivis, Scomber australisicus Myctophids Sternophychids, cyclothene (lightfish) Sillago Barracouta, Arripis, , Seriola, leatherjackets Seriolella brama Seriolella punctata Thunnus, Makaira, Tetrapturus, Xiphias Rexea solandri Flounder, Pagrus auratus, Labridae, Chelidonichthys kumu, Pterygotrigla, Sillaginoides punctata, Zeus faber Neoplatycephalus richardsoni, Platycephalus Centroberyx Nemadactylus Genypterus blacodes Blue grenadier Blue-eye trevalla Ribaldo Orange roughy Macruronus novaezelandiae Hyperoglyphe Antarctica Mora moro Hoplostethus atlanticus Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Benthic groups Sediment bacteria Carnivorous infauna Deposit feeders Deep water filter feeders Other filter feeders Scallops Herbivorous grazers Deep water megazoobenthos Shallow water megazoobenthos Rock lobster Meiobenthos Macroalgae Seagrass Prawns Fin-fish Small pelagics Red bait Mackerel Migratory mesopelagics Non-migratory mesopelagics School whiting Shallow water piscivores Blue warehou Silver warehou Tuna and billfish Gemfish Shallow water demersal fish Flathead Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Biomass pool Age structured biomass pool Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Group Dories and oreos Cardinalfish Sharks Gummy shark School shark Demersal sharks Pelagic sharks Dogfish Gulper sharks Skates and rays Mammals and Seabirds Seabirds Seals Sea lion Dolphins Orcas Baleen whales Composition Oreosomatidae, Macrouridae, Zenopsis Cardinalfish Type Age structured Age structured Mustelus antarcticus Galeorhinus galeus Heterodontus portusjacksoni, Scyliorhinidae, Orectolobidae Prionace glauca, Isurus oxyrunchus, Carcharodon carcharias, Carcharhinus Squalidae Centrophorus Rajidae, Dasyatidae Age structured Age structured Age structured Albatross, shearwater, gulls, terns, gannets, penguins Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, Arctocephalus forsteri Neophoca cinerea Delphinidae Orcinus orca Megaptera novaeangliae, Balaenoptera, Eubalaena australis Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Age structured Table S2. Total proportional decrease in length-at-age (from year 1 to year 50) in the ten age bins of the five harvested species as modelled in Atlantis. The twelve simulation scenarios are named according to the fishing level (F) and rate of body size decrease (R = 0%, 2% or 4% in 50 years). For scenarios without the directional change in body size (0%) the absolute change in length-at-age over 50 years is shown; this change is caused by a range of fluctuating ecological processes. For scenarios with simulated decrease in body size (2% and 4%) only the directional trend is shown (in italics). It is calculated as the difference between length-at-age in a scenario with body size change and without the change with the same fishing level. ____________________________________________________________________________________ F 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 ___________________ ___________________ __ ____________________ __________________ R 0% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Jackass morwong 1 -0.06 -0.18 2 -0.46 -0.50 3 0.58 -0.71 4 1.32 -0.82 5 -0.63 -0.97 6 -0.91 -1.24 7 -1.10 -1.58 8 -1.13 -1.82 9 -1.16 -2.03 10 1.21 -2.16 Silver warehou 1 -1.54 -0.28 2 -0.91 -0.51 3 -0.52 -0.86 4 -0.38 -1.58 5 -0.24 -2.29 6 -0.19 -2.40 7 -0.15 -2.50 8 -0.13 -2.45 9 -0.14 -2.39 10 -0.15 -2.56 Blue grenadier 1 -0.86 -0.26 -0.79 -1.25 -1.57 -1.79 -2.24 -2.67 -3.20 -3.60 -3.96 -4.29 0.05 -0.35 0.63 1.21 -0.46 -0.56 -0.60 -0.61 -0.63 -0.67 -0.20 -0.51 -0.72 -0.78 -0.97 -1.28 -1.63 -1.85 -2.06 -2.20 -0.83 -1.27 -1.60 -1.73 -2.24 -2.72 -3.28 -3.66 -4.02 -4.36 0.07 -0.32 0.62 1.09 -0.40 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 -0.49 -0.52 -0.20 -0.52 -0.72 -0.76 -0.97 -1.27 -1.63 -1.86 -2.07 -2.20 -0.84 -1.28 -1.60 -1.67 -2.23 -2.71 -3.28 -3.66 -4.02 -4.36 0.09 -0.31 0.62 1.01 -0.39 -0.47 -0.46 -0.45 -0.46 -0.48 -0.21 -0.52 -0.72 -0.73 -0.94 -1.25 -1.60 -1.85 -2.05 -2.20 -0.84 -1.28 -1.59 -1.61 -2.17 -2.67 -3.24 -3.64 -4.00 -4.35 -0.65 -0.91 -1.38 -2.54 -3.96 -4.49 -4.55 -4.69 -4.92 -5.19 -1.61 -0.95 -0.54 -0.39 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.13 -0.15 -0.16 -0.27 -0.51 -0.86 -1.58 -2.28 -2.39 -2.51 -2.45 -2.38 -2.56 -0.64 -0.89 -1.38 -2.53 -3.95 -4.48 -4.55 -4.69 -4.92 -5.18 -1.65 -0.97 -0.55 -0.40 -0.26 -0.20 -0.16 -0.14 -0.15 -0.16 -0.26 -0.50 -0.86 -1.58 -2.28 -2.39 -2.50 -2.44 -2.39 -2.56 -0.63 -0.89 -1.38 -2.53 -3.94 -4.49 -4.54 -4.68 -4.92 -5.18 -1.67 -0.98 -0.56 -0.41 -0.26 -0.20 -0.16 -0.14 -0.15 -0.16 -0.26 -0.50 -0.85 -1.57 -2.28 -2.40 -2.50 -2.44 -2.39 -2.56 -0.62 -0.89 -1.37 -2.52 -3.95 -4.49 -4.54 -4.68 -4.92 -5.18 -1.13 -0.62 -0.23 -0.80 -0.51 -0.20 -0.80 -0.43 -0.22 -0.83 2 -1.11 3 -1.15 4 -0.44 5 -0.16 6 0.00 7 0.17 8 0.27 9 -0.15 10 -0.96 Tiger flathead 1 -2.96 2 0.08 3 0.29 4 0.10 5 0.09 6 0.11 7 0.16 8 0.23 9 0.33 10 0.49 Pink ling 1 0.90 2 -0.53 3 -0.66 4 -1.40 5 -1.43 6 -1.39 7 -1.29 8 -1.18 9 -1.08 10 -1.02 -0.60 -0.67 -1.46 -1.94 -2.22 -2.36 -2.49 -2.55 -2.59 -1.28 -1.16 -2.25 -2.99 -3.51 -3.86 -4.21 -4.60 -4.91 -0.94 -0.84 -0.65 -0.51 -0.46 -0.38 -0.27 -0.26 -0.39 -0.53 -0.73 -1.26 -1.77 -2.14 -2.41 -2.60 -2.72 -2.74 -0.96 -1.31 -2.15 -2.92 -3.53 -4.02 -4.40 -4.75 -5.02 -0.93 -0.77 -0.65 -0.53 -0.50 -0.48 -0.44 -0.39 -0.37 -0.49 -0.81 -1.30 -1.77 -2.13 -2.41 -2.56 -2.66 -2.72 -0.91 -1.42 -2.16 -2.90 -3.52 -4.03 -4.38 -4.70 -4.99 -0.93 -0.77 -0.66 -0.54 -0.50 -0.50 -0.47 -0.43 -0.39 -0.47 -0.82 -1.29 -1.75 -2.12 -2.39 -2.57 -2.66 -2.71 -0.89 -1.41 -2.14 -2.86 -3.49 -4.00 -4.37 -4.69 -4.98 -0.26 -1.12 -1.79 -1.96 -2.25 -2.49 -2.76 -2.97 -3.13 -3.22 -0.68 -2.69 -3.39 -3.85 -4.25 -5.20 -5.31 -5.38 -5.57 -5.65 -1.57 -0.05 0.31 0.25 0.26 0.29 0.33 0.35 0.40 0.51 -0.27 -1.12 -1.76 -1.97 -2.29 -2.56 -2.83 -3.02 -3.17 -3.25 -0.92 -2.66 -3.38 -3.89 -4.31 -5.26 -5.39 -5.45 -5.62 -5.70 -0.59 -0.42 0.19 0.32 0.37 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.48 -0.27 -1.12 -1.75 -1.98 -2.32 -2.57 -2.84 -3.04 -3.19 -3.27 -0.70 -2.63 -3.36 -3.90 -4.35 -5.30 -5.41 -5.47 -5.65 -5.73 -0.46 -0.92 -0.15 0.21 0.26 0.36 0.42 0.36 0.30 0.34 -0.29 -1.06 -1.73 -2.00 -2.35 -2.60 -2.85 -3.04 -3.20 -3.29 -0.70 -2.57 -3.33 -3.94 -4.40 -5.33 -5.44 -5.50 -5.68 -5.75 -0.48 -0.60 -0.88 -1.38 -1.60 -1.79 -1.93 -2.11 -2.27 -2.38 -1.08 -1.14 -1.44 -2.04 -2.39 -2.72 -3.32 -3.87 -4.29 -4.73 0.28 -0.42 -0.46 -1.05 -1.09 -1.10 -1.06 -1.03 -0.97 -0.94 -0.57 -0.65 -0.93 -1.42 -1.64 -1.83 -1.97 -2.14 -2.30 -2.40 -1.20 -1.24 -1.52 -2.10 -2.46 -2.79 -3.37 -3.90 -4.33 -4.76 0.09 -0.34 -0.36 -0.91 -0.96 -0.99 -0.97 -0.96 -0.92 -0.91 -0.62 -0.68 -0.96 -1.44 -1.67 -1.85 -1.98 -2.15 -2.31 -2.41 -1.26 -1.28 -1.56 -2.14 -2.50 -2.82 -3.39 -3.92 -4.34 -4.77 0.13 -0.24 -0.29 -0.84 -0.91 -0.94 -0.93 -0.93 -0.90 -0.89 -0.62 -0.68 -0.96 -1.45 -1.67 -1.86 -1.99 -2.16 -2.32 -2.42 -1.29 -1.29 -1.57 -2.14 -2.50 -2.83 -3.39 -3.93 -4.35 -4.78 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table S3. Absolute and relative biomass, numbers and catches of five species in the year 50. The absolute biomass is given as x103 of tons, numbers as x106 and catches as tons. The relative values (shown in bold for the main parameterization of the model) for each scenario with decrease in body size are scaled by the scenario without the decrease but same fishing level. The relative values from the conservative set of parameters (P2) are shown in bold italics _________________________________________________________________________________________ F 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 ___________________ ___________________ __ ____________________ ___________________ R 0% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Biomass Morwong P2 Warehou P2 Grenadier 114.21 109.68 103.77 131.11 124.36 116.48 131.35 124.36 116.78 127.71 121.44 114.43 0.960 0.948 0.947 0.951 P2 Ling 0.888 0.889 0.896 0.904 0.826 499.47 388.46 321.61 0.933 0.870 369.00 285.02 236.85 0.949 0.894 257.23 201.13 169.75 0.956 0.904 180.81 144.05 123.67 0.778 0.644 0.772 0.642 0.782 0.660 0.797 0.684 0.869 0.792 103.30 101.71 117.26 0.873 71.00 0.800 70.47 0.877 46.14 0.808 45.11 0.881 32.34 0.816 31.91 1.021 1.013 0.980 0.985 P2 Flathead 0.909 69.57 33.07 0.958 0.978 0.965 0.920 0.866 1280.38 1024.92 861.65 0.933 0.888 511.00 411.00 349.80 0.946 0.911 215.35 179.09 155.16 0.959 71.16 0.932 63.44 0.800 0.673 0.804 0.685 0.832 0.721 0.836 0.745 0.848 47.28 0.741 44.96 0.852 54.97 0.749 50.63 0.839 47.64 0.738 43.66 0.867 38.09 0.796 35.01 0.955 0.908 0.909 0.837 0.893 0.818 0.892 0.820 0.918 0.868 0.920 0.872 0.923 0.877 0.925 0.881 49.51 P2 1.135 47.06 60.49 53.37 85.10 42.70 Numbers Morwong 1562.34 1552.53 1541.12 0.994 P2 Warehou P2 Grenadier P2 Flathead P2 Ling P2 1693.24 1671.58 1651.26 0.986 0.987 1710.83 1686.43 1666.58 0.975 0.986 1697.92 1676.24 1658.41 0.974 0.987 0.977 0.976 0.982 389.64 370.99 358.51 0.983 0.988 339.39 323.12 312.45 0.989 0.991 293.05 280.34 271.94 0.992 0.992 256.55 246.41 239.59 0.952 0.920 0.952 0.921 0.957 0.928 0.960 0.934 0.970 39.24 0.970 44.42 0.971 32.35 0.971 33.30 0.979 26.19 0.980 26.49 0.982 22.07 0.983 22.32 1.057 1.196 1.066 1.097 1.026 1.038 1.015 1.026 37.13 30.36 25.53 21.74 0.989 0.991 273.91 266.25 261.12 0.994 0.998 192.20 187.45 185.45 0.989 0.992 151.22 149.01 148.20 0.996 1.000 127.43 125.57 124.34 0.972 0.953 0.975 0.965 0.985 0.980 0.985 0.976 0.990 16.02 0.990 16.46 0.977 19.16 0.936 19.19 0.991 18.51 0.993 18.41 0.987 16.94 0.980 16.84 1.054 1.083 1.017 1.019 1.002 0.997 0.999 0.993 0.991 0.992 0.993 0.994 0.994 0.995 0.996 0.997 15.20 18.83 18.47 16.95 Catches Morwong P2 Warehou 1898.0 1676.1 1435.3 3420.1 2996.0 2577.9 4340.2 3832.9 3315.0 0.883 0.876 0.883 0.866 0.753 33908.9 26055.1 21398.3 0.768 P2 Grenadier P2 Flathead P2 0.631 0.754 0.897 0.790 46693.3 36258.0 30273.6 0.777 0.648 0.764 0.907 0.803 48311.2 38159.4 32438.8 0.790 0.671 0.870 0.796 4124.6 4105.5 3981.7 0.874 0.803 5158.0 4860.1 4589.2 0.878 0.811 4943.1 4594.4 4350.9 0.995 0.942 0.929 0.965 0.871 0.784 38932.7 31256.6 26528.2 0.803 P2 Ling 0.756 0.681 0.890 0.878 0.795 32698.5 27014.7 23230.9 0.826 0.710 0.880 0.886 0.807 18546.6 15226.4 13357.3 0.821 0.720 0.839 0.725 2064.4 1872.1 1720.4 0.813 0.690 3634.7 3236.2 2958.0 0.833 0.728 4322.8 3843.6 3523.2 0.907 0.833 0.890 0.814 0.889 0.815 0.910 0.856 0.911 0.859 0.913 0.863 _________________________________________________________________________________________ Table S4. Relative total (all age bins) predation mortality at the end of the simulation period (average of years 46-50). Predation mortality for each scenario with decrease in body size are scaled by the scenario without the decrease but same fishing level. Only groups for which body size decrease of five harvested/shrinking species changed predation mortality by ≥ 5% are shown. Changes in the predation mortality from the conservative set of parameters (P2) are shown in italics __________________________________________________________________________________ F 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ R 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Harvested/evolving species Morwong P2 Warehou P2 Grenadier P2 Flathead P2 Ling P2 1.038 1.092 1.051 1.117 1.054 1.119 1.050 1.112 1.099 1.198 1.074 1.150 1.054 1.120 1.048 1.110 1.069 1.133 1.078 1.138 1.066 1.110 1.051 1.082 1.049 1.081 1.046 1.075 1.043 1.068 1.039 1.062 0.862 0.725 0.881 0.822 0.941 0.912 0.967 0.948 0.891 0.841 0.938 0.923 0.969 0.977 0.992 1.012 1.245 1.475 1.245 1.461 1.202 1.388 1.212 1.348 1.188 1.349 1.194 1.360 1.236 1.427 1.199 1.334 0.992 1.003 1.048 1.109 1.101 1.198 1.122 1.238 1.088 1.153 1.090 1.158 1.089 1.161 1.092 1.167 0.926 0.988 0.911 0.961 0.923 1.107 0.922 0.981 0.960 0.973 0.960 0.973 1.000 0.950 0.967 0.928 0.957 0.923 0.956 1.000 0.903 0.993 0.971 0.990 0.974 0.985 1.000 0.942 0.988 0.949 0.984 0.952 0.976 1.000 0.895 0.998 0.982 0.996 0.987 0.992 1.000 0.944 0.997 0.969 0.995 0.978 0.988 1.000 0.901 Other functional groups Mackerel 0.956 Gemfish 0.954 School whiting 0.945 Dories and oreos 0.947 Shallow wat. demersals 0.955 Orange roughy 1.106 Prawns 0.964 __________________________________________________________________________________ Table S5. Relative total (all age bins) predation mortality (average of years 46-50) of five harvested/shrinking species as caused by individual functional groups for two sets of parameter values. Predation mortality is shown as a ratio of mortality in scenarios R0 to R4 (illustrated in Fig. 2). Values from the main set of parameters are shown in bold, and those from the conservative set are shown in regular font. __________________________________________________________________________________ Morwong Preyed species: Warehou Grenadier Flathead Ling __________________________________________________________________________________ Predators: Morwong Cardinalfish Gemfish Barracouta Tuna and billfish 0.94 0.88 1.11 1.17 1.25 1.23 1.14 1.14 1.06 1.10 School whiting 0.88 0.97 1.35 1.12 0.94 0.99 1.07 1.04 Dories and oreos Redfish 1.60 2.08 0.94 1.07 0.41 0.49 Grenadier Shallow water demersals 1.49 1.37 1.17 1.16 1.67 2.26 1.46 1.32 0.90 1.26 0.99 Flathead 0.96 1.03 0.71 0.81 Ling 1.06 1.03 0.72 0.83 Orange roughy 1.29 1.22 Blue-eye trevalla Demersal sharks 0.90 0.98 0.88 0.98 1.11 1.17 1.23 1.14 1.21 1.17 Dogfish Pelagic sharks 1.12 1.14 0.99 1.00 1.06 1.01 1.45 1.35 Gulper sharks Skates and rays Seabirds Seals Sea lions Baleen whales Dolphins Orcas Adult cephalopods Juvenile cephalopods Gelatinous zooplankton 1.19 1.02 1.02 1.11 1.14 1.11 1.14 1.14 1.18 1.32 1.48 1.12 1.14 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.18 1.12 1.15 1.12 1.19 1.05 1.00 0.89 0.99 0.98 1.00 0.87 0.99 0.91 0.99 1.42 1.32 1.47 1.38 1.35 1.32 1.03 1.45 0.96 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.06 1.03 1.06 1.01 1.06 1.02 0.89 0.99 0.92 0.99 0.90 0.99 0.91 0.99 0.90 0.99 1.39 1.32 1.44 1.34 1.45 1.38 1.44 1.43 1.48 1.35 1.44 1.16 1.24 1.14 1.25 1.14 0.99 0.82 1.23 1.15 1.25 1.15 1.28 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.27 1.14 __________________________________________________________________________________