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Losses to the economy of Latvia by USSR occupation Loss analysis agencies: Parliamentary Commission and the LORS The determination of losses to Latvia and its people resulting from the Soviet occupation was started on august 5, 2005, by a Special Commission of the Saeima Council of Ministers with representatives from 17 governmental and public institutions. In 4 years, studies were conducted in 25 economic environmental and demographic areas; 17 in historic areas; and 50 analyses by experts. In concert with the Latvia Archives a book was published about deportations and databases were developed. When the Commission's work was halted by the economic crisis,in 2009, the Latvia Occupation Research Society (LORS) was founded with 40 representatives who had been involved in the research. The LORS continued the research activities; organized several international and local conferences;, published several books; organised seminars; provided interviews to the media, and issued various informative pamphlets. International cooperation was organized. With initiative from the LORS, work of the Parliamentary Commission was resumed in 2013. Both organizations continue research of determining losses from the USSR occupation, focused on four main areas: 1. Losses to the economy. In 1990 when Latvia was in the process of separating from the Soviet Union, the USSR demanded compensation for investment in the economy of Latvia. However, Latvian economists had already calculated that there were large losses to the Latvian economy. Using these studies, a special Saeima comission quickly showed large losses to Latvia using the balance sheet method. The calculations showed that each year, Latvia had given USSR much more than it had received (similarly in Estonia and Lithuania). An analysis of national income loss in comparison with economy nodel of Finland, using as a base 1945, when the income per capita in Latvia was about 15% higher than in Finland. (similar to the years 1925 to 1934). The income loss came out to 60.4 billion Rubles ($36.9 billion) This calculation did not included damage to the environment; losses due to deportations and loss of life;, and costs of maintaining USSR army and repressive security organs in Latvia. During 2006-2009 the Commission conducted 8 research and 14 expert analyses. The necessary methodology was developed. A starting point was established for Latvia towards the end of the 1930s, in comparison with the countries which at that time were at a similar level in terms of economic structure and development. Using available statistical sources, the analyses showed that if Latvia had not have been invaded, Latvia's GDP would have gained about 123 billion. lats (173 billion. EUR), (see. attached graphs). 2. Damage to the environment: Six studies were made to determine the amount of environmental pollution in 656 regional territories and large sites, on costs for their rehabilitation. The total cost of cleaning up environmental damage related to the Soviet occupation of Latvia, at the various sites, was calculated at EUR 712 million . There sums do not include the big industrial objects, due to lack of data; and former military areas, which have not yet been surveyed. Additional costs of cleanup for these are estimated at EUR 899 million. Additional costs will be added related to underground drilling , chemical and military contamination and pollution of the Baltic Sea. 3, Demographic losses: There were 11 studiess and 22 expert analyses. During the USSR occupation, demographic data was classified as secret and data available is distorted. Two methods were used to calculate hese losses: direct demographic losses (executions, deportations, forced emigrations) and indirect demographic losses. Adding up all known direct demographic losses, amounts to a loss of over 10 million man-years. Largest indirect demographic losses due to the occupation relate to the decline in fertility, deterioration of health and premature mortality. These losses in viability and fertility caused by the USSR occupation plus the Chernobyl accident victims, the time spent in the army, social and moral losses, etc. are in excess of 21 million man years. 4. Losses due to militarization: During the USSR occupation, the whole economy and society itself were militarized. It is estimated that Soviet military spending comprised 50-80% of GDP. As a result, the end of the USSR occupation, led to a collapse of the economy and the social network. 5. Losses not calculated: After independence Latvia has spent an average of about EUR 213 million, to cover compensation for "Chernobyl affected", to repair environmental damage and for various social and integration programs. In additon, there are the immense costs of changing the Latvian economy to fit the needs to today's market economy in Europe and the world. IN SUMMATION: - Adding up the various losses, one may conclude that the successor State of the USSR 50 years of occupation of Latvia, Russia owes Latvia at least EUR 280 billion, without adding costs incurred after Latvia regained its independence. The significance of these calculations: They are an important refutation of Russia's claims. Russia has an analogous loss analysis institute. It's scientists know that "Baltic States are not indebted to the USSR. In fact, Russia pays compensation to those it deported. But if Russia were to recognize this fact, then many countries would demand similar compensation. Therefore, the Russian media is still forced to issue misinformation that all former USSR republics are indebted to the USSR. These calculations are important because: * they show that the heires to former USSR, Russia is indebted to Latvia * they show why Latvia’s economy and income are behind developed European ountries; * the international community needs to understand why we are in this economically retarded situation. All people in Latvia should know these facts, in order to understand why we do not live as long as citizens in well developed countries and why our icomes are lower. If the occupation had not occurred, our incomes would be three times higher than they are today. 25000 Iekšzemes kopprodukts uz 1 iedzīvotāju 20000 PSRS Latvija Som ija 15000 Aus trija Dānija 10000 90 88 89 19 19 86 87 19 19 84 85 19 19 83 19 81 82 19 19 79 78 77 76 80 19 19 19 19 19 74 75 19 19 72 71 73 19 19 19 19 70 0 19 USD pēc oficiālā kursa 5000 The GDP of Latvia 1950 – 1990 was EUR 177 billion (Year 2000 prices). If Latvia income per person in year 2000 had been equivalent to Finland, the GDP would have been increased by EUR 176 billion. 35000 30000 Latvijas faktiskais IKP un neiegūtais IKP salīdzinājum ā ar Som iju (1990.gada cenās, milj. rbļ.) 25000 20000 Neiegūtais IKP salīdzinājumā ar Somiju 15000 10000 Latvijas faktiskais IKP 5000 0 1950 1955 Ruta Pazdere, LOIB, +371 29521934, [email protected] 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990