Download Real GDP pulls back in February QUEBEC

May 22, 2015
QUEBEC
Real GDP pulls back in February
highlights
•Real GDP by industry ticked down 0.1% in February after
rising the previous month. January’s figure was also revised
from 0.2% to 0.3%. For the first two months of the year, the
total annual increase is 1.3%.
•Electricity production drove growth by utilities, which made a
big contribution to real GDP growth. Without this sector, economic activity posted a -0.4% decline for February.
•Goods production fell 0.6% in February. Several sectors
contracted sharply, including construction and manufacturing.
•The service industry edged up, gaining a monthly 0.1%.
Retailing, finance and insurance, and business services posted the strongest growth.
The real GDP is struggling to post several gains in a row
In billions of 2007 dollars
% monthly change
Real GDP
320
1.4
1.1
0.8
310
0.5
0.2
300
-0.1
-0.4
-0.7
290
-1.0
-1.3
280
2008
-1.6
2009
2010
2011
Change (right)
2012
2013
2014
2015
Level (left)
Sources: Institut de la statistique du Québec and Desjardins, Economic Studies
cOMMENTS
We had expected the economy to tick down in February.
Although the retail sales figures Statistics Canada published
for the month had turned around, other data was down in
February, including manufacturing sales, exports and housing starts. The winter’s extraordinarily cold weather seems
to have slowed many industries, including construction.
On the other hand, it stimulated electricity production in
Contribution to real GDP growth in February
Public sector*
Services sector
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Goods sector
Mining and oil
Agriculture and forestry
-0.3
-0.2
The harsh weather also sapped the U.S. economy in the first
quarter. There, real GDP posted a weak annualized 0.2%
increase. In Canada, the adverse impact of low oil prices
on the economies of oil-producing provinces worsened the
unfavourable context, which should limit real GDP growth
to an annualized 0.3%.
March looks fairly solid for Quebec’s economic growth,
however. Retail sales jumped 1.0%, while manufacturing
sales and exports went up of more than 6.0%.
Other
Financial sector
Quebec. Overall, the carryover for real GDP is fairly slight
for the first quarter, at an annualized increase of 0.4%.
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Implications: Despite February’s downtick, Quebec’s
annualized real GDP growth should be above 1% for the
first quarter. The rebound expected in North America for
the second quarter should make itself felt in Quebec, where
the pace should pick up to hit the 1.7% target for growth in
2015.
In %
Hélène Bégin
Senior Economist
* Education, healthcare and public administrations.
Sources: Institut de la statistique du Québec and Desjardins, Economic Studies
François Dupuis
Vice-President and Chief Economist
Hélène Bégin
Senior Economist
Benoit P. Durocher
Senior Economist
418-835-2450 or 1 866 835-8444, ext. 2450
E-mail: [email protected]
Francis Généreux
Senior Economist
Note to readers: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.
I mportant: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that
are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group
takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are
provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained
herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document's authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright © 2015, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.