Download Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened

Incorporating climate change into recovery
planning for threatened vertebrate species
in southwestern Australia.
Barbara A. Cook, Benjamin M. Ford, Bronte E. Van Helden, J. Dale
Roberts, Paul G. Close, Peter C. Speldewinde
Citation
Cook, B. A., Ford, B. M., Van Helden, B. E., Roberts, J. D., Close, P. G., Speldewinde, P. C. (2016). Incorporating climate
change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia. Report No CENRM 142.
Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management, University of Western Australia.
Copyright
© 2016 Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management, University of Western Australia.
Disclaimer
The view expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth of Australia, and the Commonwealth
does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained herein.
Contents
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................................ 5
Abstract .............................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Methods............................................................................................................................................................................ 11
Inclusion of climate change in existing recovery documentation ..................................................................................... 11
Bioclimatic modelling.......................................................................................................................................................... 18
Results .............................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Inclusion of climate change in existing recovery documentation ..................................................................................... 22
Bioclimatic modelling.......................................................................................................................................................... 24
Discussion ......................................................................................................................................................................... 37
References ........................................................................................................................................................................ 43
List of Tables
Table 1 Threatened vertebrate species examined in assessment of the extent to which existing recovery
plans and related documentation address climate change, and/or modelled. ................................................................ 14
Table 2 Climatic and environmental variables utilised in species distribution modelling. .............................................. 19
Table 3 Inclusion of climate change in recovery documentation for vertebrate groups in southwestern
Australia by faunal group.................................................................................................................................................. 23
Table 4 Climate change threats and mitigation identified in recovery documents for threatened vertebrate
species considered most exposed to climate change threats. ......................................................................................... 34
List of Figures
Figure 1. Location of study area in Australia. .................................................................................................................. 12
Figure 2. Department of Parks and Wildlife regions in Western Australia. ..................................................................... 13
Figure 3 Proportion of recovery documents that have identified each of eight threatening processes. ........................ 22
Figure 4 Proportion of recovery documents noting climate change as a threatening process across years. ................. 23
Figure 5 Average importance of climatic variables for all species modelled. .................................................................. 24
Figure 6 Range in the predicted percent change in area of climate envelope by 2030 for species modelled. ............... 26
Figure 7 Range in the predicted percent change in area of climate envelope by 2080 for species modelled. ............... 27
Figure 8 Range in percent of occurrence records in predicted area of climate envelope overlap by 2030 for
each species. ..................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 9 Range in percent of occurrence records in predicted area of climate envelope overlap by 2080 for
each species. ..................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Figure 10 Proposed gradient of management interventions for mitigating climate change impacts for
threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia. .............................................................................................. 33
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the Department of the Environment for providing funding through the Australian Government’s
Regional Natural Resource Management Planning for Climate Change Fund.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Abstract
Recovery plans are the main tool used for restoration of threatened species in Australia, and
identification of key threatening processes is an important feature of these plans. The aim of this study was
to identify how climate change can be incorporated into the recovery planning process using a case study
of threatened vertebrates in southwestern Australia. Analysis of documentation for 74 threatened
vertebrate species in the region found that prior to 2004, climate change was not included as a threatening
process in recovery documentation. Post 2004, 42% of documents included climate change as a
threatening process. Using bioclimatic modelling, 43 of these species were ranked in terms of their
potential exposure to climate change, and a gradient of management intervention aimed at mitigation
against exposure to climate change was proposed for these species. This intervention gradient ranged
from active management actions aimed at species potentially at risk of extinction due to climate change,
through to preservation of habitat in species predicted to lose between zero and 25% of their current
distribution. It was proposed that as a priority, the recovery documentation of the 17 species predicted to
be most at risk should identify climate change as a key threatening process, and that more comprehensive
analyses of climate vulnerability be undertaken for these species. Such an approach aimed at prioritising
climate change mitigation in threatened species would be useful for other regions where it has been
predicted that climate change could have a negative impact on biodiversity.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Introduction
Southern Australia is expected to experience reduced rainfall, elevated temperatures, and
increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events as a result of climate change (Easterling et al.
2000; Hughes 2003). The southwestern Australian (SWA) ecoregion is one of five global regions
consistently predicted by various climate models to experience increased frequency of drought in the
future (Prudhomme et al. 2014). In this region, strong gradients exist for both rainfall and temperature,
with annual rainfall decreasing west to east and average temperatures decreasing north to south (Indian
Ocean Climate Initiative 2002). It is predicted that by 2030, average temperature across southern Australia
will have increased by 0.5-1.5°C, and by 2070, it is estimated that average temperatures will have increased
by 1-4°C (Suppiah et al. 2007). By 2030, decreases in rainfall of 0-0.5% are projected for southern Australia,
with 5-10% decreases projected for SWA under a low emissions scenario. Under high emissions scenarios,
the magnitude of projected decrease in rainfall for southern Australia is 5-10%, with a 10-20% decrease
predicted for SWA. By 2070, decreases of 10-20% are expected along the south coast and 30-40% in the
south west corner of the region (Suppiah et al. 2007).
This rapid climate change is likely to negatively impact global biodiversity (Thomas et al. 2004),
including that found in Australia (Lindenmayer et al. 2010). Hardest hit will be those species considered
already at risk of extinction due to existing threatening processes such as habitat loss, introduced species
and inappropriate fire regimes (Evans et al. 2011). At a national level, the principal environment legislation
in Australia that aims to protect these species at risk of extinction is The Environment Protection and
Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act). This legislation identifies and lists threatened species and
communities, and advises the development of conservation advices, recovery and threat abatement plans
to reduce key threatening processes. In the State of Western Australia, species that are rare, or likely to
become extinct without special protection, are listed under the Wildlife Conservation Act 1950. Species
listed as threatened under this legislation are classified as either ‘critically endangered’ (CR), ‘endangered’
(EN) or ‘vulnerable’ (VU) using the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List
categories and criteria. To date, there are 134 vertebrate species (44 mammal, 52 bird, 26 reptile, three
amphibian and nine fish species) State-listed as threatened (CR, EN and VU) for Western Australia. At a
national scale, 13% of Australia’s known terrestrial vertebrate species are formally listed as threatened
under the EPBC Act (Taylor et al. 2011).
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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As is the case for the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) (Tear et al. 1995; Foin et al. 1998;
Povilitis and Suckling 2010), recovery plans are the main tool used for restoration of species listed under
both the EPBC and the Wildlife Conservation Acts. Recovery plans summarise what is known about the
taxonomy, biology, distribution, critical habitat and conservation status of threatened species, and identify
key threatening processes and recovery actions to be undertaken to achieve the objectives of the plan.
Details on the proposed budget and duration of the plan, as well as major benefits or negative impacts to
non-target native species, affected interests and socio-economic benefits are also provided. The ultimate
goal of these plans is to improve the conservation status of species so that they can eventually become
delisted (Carroll et al. 1996; Foin et al. 1998). Although recovery plans are considered a reliable source of
information as they are generally written by specialists familiar with all aspects of the threatened species in
question (Povilitis and Suckling 2010), their effectiveness as a conservation tool has been questioned (Tear
et al. 1995; Foin et al. 1998; Boersma et al. 2001; Stokstad 2005; Bottrill et al. 2011). Lack of success of
these plans has variously been attributed to delays in development and weak goals (Carroll et al. 1996), lack
of clear criteria to define recovery (Westwood et al. 2014), poor implementation of recovery tasks
(Lundquist et al. 2002; Taylor et al. 2005), and failure to designate critical habitat (Schwartz 2008), amongst
others.
Recovery plans are also likely to be less successful if they fail to identify key threatening processes,
and thus do not formulate management actions to ameliorate these. In an investigation of the nature and
treatment of threats in recovery plans for 181 species listed under the ESA, Lawler et al. (2002) found that
these plans lacked basic information for 39% of threats faced by these species. Consequently, threats that
were better understood were assigned recovery actions more often than threats that were poorly
understood (Lawler et al. 2002). Given that our understanding of climate change as a threatening process
has only gained impetus in recent times, it is feasible that this threatening process has not been given
sufficient attention in conservation planning to date. For example, an assessment of the spatial distribution
of eight threatening processes for 1700 EPBC-listed species of plants and animals in Australia did not
include ‘climate change’, as the recovery documentation examined at the time of the study did not identify
it as an important threatening process for any of the species analysed (Evans et al. 2011). Similarly, a
review of recovery actions for threatened freshwater fish in Australia revealed little or no consideration of
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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climatic extremes such as droughts and floods, despite the fact that these extreme events are likely to
increase in frequency in Australia with climate change (Lintermans et al. 2013). The omission of climate
change as a key threat in existing recovery plans is noteworthy, in so much as, many threatened species are
expected to be vulnerable to climate change impacts (e.g. Bagne et al. 2014) due for example to their small
population sizes, restricted distributions, or reliance of specific habitats (Thomas et al. 2011).
Investigations of how climate change has been addressed in recovery planning are limited. Povilitis
and Suckling (2010) reviewed over 1200 plans for threatened species listed under the ESA, concluding that
there was a need to update recovery plans for climate change. This analysis showed that after 2004,
attention to climate change in new and revised recovery plans increased substantially, suggesting that
older, operational plans should be reviewed in the light of new data and analyses on climate change. To
the best of our knowledge, there has yet to be a systematic updating of recovery plans in the light of new
knowledge on climate change in Australia.
The aim of this study was to identify how climate change can be incorporated into the recovery
planning process using a case study of threatened vertebrates in southwestern Australia. More specifically,
we (i) examined the extent to which existing recovery plans for threatened vertebrates address climate
change threats, (ii) used bioclimatic modelling to predict the likely impact of climate change on 43
threatened vertebrate species, and (iii) based on these projections, proposed a gradient of management
actions aimed at climate change mitigation to be undertaken and incorporated into recovery
documentation for these threatened species.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Methods
Inclusion of climate change in existing recovery documentation
We focussed our study on threatened vertebrates that occur in a globally recognised biodiversity
hotspot, comprising approximately 480 000 km2 and located in the southwestern Australian ecoregion
(Myers et al. 2000), (Figure 1). This region has undergone extensive land clearing, and is one of five regions
globally where there is high consensus among climate models regarding the decrease in rainfall due to
climate change (Prudhomme et al. 2014). Southwestern Australia and parts of South Australia together
encompass one of the five Mediterranean ecosystems that occur globally. These five areas support 20% of
the Earth’s known vascular plant diversity. High levels of land conversion for agriculture, development and
other human uses have resulted in these areas being considered a global conservation priority. Most of
this region is characterised by a Mediterranean-type climate, with warm, dry summers and cooler, wetter
winters. Increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall associated with future climate change is expected
to further threaten biodiversity in the Australian Mediterranean ecosystem.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Figure 1. Location of study area in Australia. Dark grey shaded area represents southwestern Australia.
For the assessment of the extent to which existing recovery plans and other recovery
documentation for threatened vertebrates in southwestern Australia address climate change threats, we
included all terrestrial and freshwater vertebrate species that were State-listed (as of 3 December 2014) as
being threatened (either CR, EN or VU). We also included selected priority species that occurred in the
Department of Parks and Wildlife regions of Goldfields, Midwest, Wheatbelt, South Coast, Swan, South
West and Warren (Figure 2). This resulted in an initial compilation consisting of 123 species, 76 of which
had either a recovery plan, conservation advice, fauna profile or action statement. These 76 species
consisted of 26 mammals, 35 birds, nine reptiles, three amphibians and three fish species (Table 1). For
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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each species, we obtained existing recovery documentation (recovery plans, conservation advices,
commonwealth listing advices, fauna profiles, action plans or action statements) from either the Western
Australian Department of Parks and Wildlife (www.dpaw.wa.gov.au) or Commonwealth Government
Department of the Environment (www.environment.gov.au) websites. We reviewed each document to
determine whether climate change or related phenomena were described as a threat or potential threat,
and noted whether the documents included any recovery actions aimed at mitigation against climate
change.
Figure 2. Department of Parks and Wildlife regions in Western Australia with the southwest study area
shaded grey.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Table 1 Threatened vertebrate species examined in assessment of the extent to which existing recovery plans and related documentation address climate
change, and/or modelled (indicated with an asterisk). CR = critically endangered, EN = endangered, VU = vulnerable, P = Priority, RP = recovery plan, CA =
conservation advice, AP = action plan, AS = action statement, CLA = commonwealth listing advice.
Group
Mammals
Species
Bettongia lesueur lesueur
Bettongia penicillata ogilbyi
Dasyurus geoffroii
Falsistrellus mackenziei
Hydromys chrysogaster
Isoodon obesulus fusciventer
Lagorchestes hirsutus bernieri
Lagostrophus fasciatus fasciatus
Leporillus conditor
Macropus eugenii derbianus
Macropus irma
Macrotis lagotis
Myrmecobius fasciatus
Notoryctes caurinus
Notoryctes typhlops
Nyctophilus major
Parantechinus apicalis
Parameles bougainville bougainville
Petrogale lateralis hacketti
Petrogale lateralis lateralis
Petrogale lateralis ssp. (ANCW CM15314)
Phascogale calura
Phascogale tapoatafa tapoatafa
Potorous gilbertii
Common name
Shark Bay Boodie
Woylie*
Chuditch
Western False Pipistrelle*
Water-rat*
Quenda*
Rufous Hare-wallaby
Banded Hare-wallaby
Great Stick-nest Rat
Tammar Wallaby*
Western Brush Wallably*
Bilby
Numbat*
Northern Marsupial Mole
Southern marsupial Mole
Central Long-eared Bat*
Dibbler*
Western Barred Bandicoot
Recherche Rock-wallaby
Black-flanked Rock-wallaby*
Black-footed Rock-wallaby
Red-tailed Phascogale*
Brush-tailed Phascogale*
Gilbert’s Potoroo
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
Status
VU
CR
VU
P4
P4
P5
VU
VU
VU
P5
P4
VU
VU
EN
EN
P4
EN
EN
VU
VU
VU
EN
VU
CR
14
Documents
RP
RP
RP
AP
FP
RP
AP
CLA
FP
FP
RP
CA
RP
RP
RP
RP
RP
RP
RP
CA
FP
RP
Records
174
97
88
1345
136
792
472
10
38
115
209
37
-
Group
Species
Pseudocheirus occidentalis
Pseudomys fieldi
Pseudomys occidentalis
Pseudomys shortridgei
Setonix brachyurus
Common name
Western Ringtail Possum*
Shark Bay Mouse
Western Mouse*
Heath Mouse*
Quokka*
Status
EN
VU
P4
VU
VU
Documents
RP
RP
FP
RP
Records
5161
62
37
309
Birds
Ardeotis australis
Atrichornis clamosus
Botaurus poiciloptilus
Cacatua leadbeateri
Cacatua pastinator pastinator
Calamanthus campestris dorrie
Calamanthus campestris hartogi
Calamanthus campestris montanellus
Calyptorhynchus banksii naso
Calyptorhynchus baudinii
Calyptorhynchus latirostris
Cereopsis novaehollandiae grisea
Dasyornis longirostris
Falco hypoleucos
Hylacola cauta whitlocki
Ixobrychus flavicollis australis
Ixobrychus minutus
Leipoa ocellata
Malurus lanberti bernieri
Malurus leucopterus leucopterus
Neochmia ruficauda subclarescens
Ninox connivens connivens
Australian Bustard*
Noisy Scrub-bird*
Australasian Bittern*
Major Mitchell’s Cockatoo*
Muir’s Corella*
Rufous Fieldwren (Dorre Is)
Rufous Fieldwren (Dirk Hartog Is)
Rufous Fieldwren (Western wheatbelt)*
Forest Red-tailed Black Cockatoo*
Baudin’s Cockatoo*
Carnaby’s Cockatoo*
Recherche Cape Barren Goose
Western Bristlebird*
Grey Falcon
Shy Heathwren (Western subsp.)*
Black Bittern (SW population)
Little Bittern
Malleefowl*
Variegated Fairy-wren (Shark Bay)
Dirk Hartog Black and White Fairy-wren
Star Finch (Western)
Barking Owl (SW population)*
P4
EN
EN
SPF
SPF
VU
VU
P4
VU
EN
EN
VU
VU
VU
P4
P1
P4
VU
VU
VU
P4
P2
AP
RP
CA
AS
RP
AP
AP
AP
RP
RP
RP
CA
RP
AP
AP
AP
AP
RP
AP
CA
AP
AP
1615
128
82
79
182
13
938
960
2956
161
36
1023
9
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Group
Species
Oreoica gutturalis gutturalis
Oxyura australis
Pezoporus flaviventris
Pezoporus occidentalis
Platycercus icterotis xanthogenys
Polytelis alexandrae
Psophodes nigrogularis nigrogularis
Psophodes nigrogularis oberon
Stipiturus malachurus hartogi
Thinornis rubricollis
Turnix varia scintillans
Tyto novaehollandiae novaehollandiae
Common name
Crested Bellbird (Southern)
Blue-billed Duck
Western Ground Parrot
Night Parrot
Western Rosella (Inland ssp.)*
Princess Parrot
Western Whipbird (Western heath subsp.)
Western Whipbird (Southern WA ssp)*
Southern Emu-wren (Dirk Hartog Is)
Hooded Plover
Abrolhos Painted Button-quail
Masked Owl (SW ssp)*
Status
P4
P4
CR
CR
P4
P4
EN
P4
VU
P4
EN
P3
Documents
AP
AP
RP
CA
AP
CA
RP
RP, CLA
AP
CA
CA
AP
Reptiles
Ctenophorus yinnietharra
Ctenotus delli
Ctenotus lancelini
Ctenotus zastictus
Egernia stokesii aethiops
Egernia stokesii badia
Egernia stokesii stokesii
Lerista lineata
Liopholis kintorei
Liopholis pulchra longicauda
Morelia spilota imbricata
Neelaps calonotos
Pseudemydura umbrina
Yinnietharra Rock Dragon
Dell’s Skink*
Lancelin Island Skink
Hamelin Ctenotus
Baudin Island Spiny-tailed Skink
Western Spiny-tailed Skink
Spiny-tailed Skink
Lined Skink*
Giant Desert Skink
Jurien Bay Skink
Carpet Python*
Black-striped Snake*
Western Swamp Tortoise
VU
P4
VU
VU
VU
VU
P4
P3
VU
VU
SPF
P3
CR
CA
RP
CA
RP
RP
RP
RP
CA
RP
Geocrinia alba
White-bellied Frog*
CR
RP
Amphibians
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Records
78
80
33
24
60
134
38
76
Group
Fish
Species
Geocrinia lutea
Geocrinia vitellina
Spicospina flammocaerulea
Common name
Nornalup Frog*
Orange-bellied Frog
Sunset Frog*
Status
P4
VU
VU
Documents
RP
RP
Records
10
Galaxias truttaceus
Galaxiella munda
Galaxiella nigrostriata
Geotria australia
Nannatherina balstoni
Western Trout Minnow*
Western Mud Minnow*
Black-striped Minnow*
Pouched Lamprey*
Balston’s Pygmy Perch*
EN
VU
P3
P1
VU
RP
CLA
CA
33
262
179
11
144
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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86
Bioclimatic modelling
For bioclimatic modelling, occurrence records for 43 of the 76 vertebrate species (State-listed as
threatened, specially protected, or priority under the Wildlife Conservation Act 1950) initially examined
were obtained from NatureMap (http://naturemap.dpaw.wa.gov.au/default.aspx), the Western Australian
Department of Parks and Wildlife (DPAW) species occurrence database (Table 1). Prior to modelling,
records which had an accuracy uncertainty of more than 5000m were removed from the dataset, as were
duplicate records. Additionally, as southwestern Australia underwent a step reduction in rainfall in 1975
(Hope et al. 2006), all occurrence records prior to 1976 were removed prior to analysis. The completed
dataset comprised 18,612 records for 43 species representing 26 families and five vertebrate groups.
Modelling was performed for current (baseline) conditions and three future emission scenarios –
low (B1), medium (A1B), and high (A2), based on the average of three Global Climate Models (GCMs)
deemed suitable for the region (CSIRO Mk 3.5, MIUB ECHO-G, and MIROC-M) (Suppiah et al. 2007).
Selection of suitable GCMs was facilitated by the use of the Climate Futures Tool housed on the Climate
Change in Australia website (www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au). This tool organises climate models
according to their simulated changes in rainfall and temperatures. The three models selected showed the
greatest consensus. As the projection variability among models was low, an average was taken for each
variable across the three GCMs sensu Fordham et al. (2011). The emission scenarios used were those
described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(SRES) (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000). Although the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (Moss
et al. 2010; Van Vuuren et al. 2011) and the SRES scenarios do not correspond directly to each other,
carbon dioxide concentrations under RCP4.5 (intermediate emissions) is similar to that of the B1 scenario,
and concentrations under RCP8.5 (high emissions) is similar to that of the A1F1 scenario. Future scenarios
were modelled for 2030 and 2080.
Climate layers and altitude were sourced through the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security GCM data portal (http://www.ccafs-climate.org/). Soil type was a rasterised
version of “Geologic Unit Polygons 1M” sourced from Geoscience Australia
(http://mapconnect.ga.gov.au/MapConnect/) (Table 2). Soil type was incorporated as an environmental
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
18
layer as soil type has been noted to be related to vegetation structure in SW WA Beard et al. (2000). A
strong association between vertebrate species modelled and soil type was assumed to be representing the
species affinities with a particular vegetation habitat. All layers were set to a 2.5 arc-minute (≈5km2) grain
size. Modelling was performed based on distributions at the extent of the state of Western Australia (WA)
as some distributions did extend beyond the southwestern ecoregion; however, results are presented for
only the southwestern ecoregion (Figure 1).
Table 2 Climatic and environmental variables utilised in species distribution modelling.
Bioclim climate
variable
BIO2
BIO3
BIO4
BIO5
BIO6
BIO7
BIO8
BIO9
BIO10
BIO11
BIO12
BIO13
BIO14
BIO15
BIO16
BIO17
BIO18
BIO19
NA
NA
Variable name
Abbreviation
Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))
Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100)
Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100)
Max Temperature of Warmest Month
Min Temperature of Coldest Month
Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6)
Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter
Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter
Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter
Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter
Annual Precipitation
Precipitation of Wettest Month
Precipitation of Driest Month
Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)
Precipitation of Wettest Quarter
Precipitation of Driest Quarter
Precipitation of Warmest Quarter
Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
Altitude
Soil
DiurnTempRange
IsoTherm
TempSeason
MaxTempWarm
MinTempCold
AnnTempRange
MeanTempWet
MeanTempDry
MeanTempWarm
MeanTempCold
AnnPrecip
PrecipWet
PrecipDry
PrecipSeason
PrecipWetQ
PrecipDryQ
PrecipWarmQ
PrecipColdQ
Altitude
Soil
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Species distribution modelling (SDM) was performed using MaxEnt V3.3.3 (Phillips et al. 2006;
Phillips and Dudík 2008), considered to provide the most accurate predictions of a suite of available
methods (Elith et al. 2006; Elith et al. 2011; Merow et al. 2013). Maxent analyses were performed with the
following settings - background points were set to incorporate the whole of WA, hinge features were
turned on to provide optimal environmental variable ranges as opposed to environmental thresholds, and
thresholds were turned off to provide continuous probability of occurrence rather than binary presence
absence outputs. Random seed was utilised, with regularisation left as default. To account for sampling
bias (uneven spatial concentration of sampling effort), a total of 62 657 occurrence records of flora and
fauna found in the SWA ecoregion were pooled, resulting in 196 860 cells at ≈ 5km2 resolution across the
state with samples in them. This provided a proxy of intensity of sampling effort, and thus incorporated the
probability of sampling a location into the model (Kramer-Schadt et al., 2013). Clamping was utilised to
retain species future distributions within their current climatic envelopes. Cumulative output was selected
as this is appropriate for determining range boundaries and avoids the arbitrary or uncertain allocation of a
value to τ (species probability of presence at “typical” sites) (Merow et al. 2013). Cross validation of 10
replicates was performed and the average of these was used as the final model for each species. The
predictive accuracy of Maxent results was assessed through the standard measure of area under the
receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). These scores range from 0 to 1, with a value of 0.5 indicating
a performance no better than random. In our study, SDM results with AUC values of less than 0.75 were
deemed unreliable and discarded (Elith et al. 2006).
In order to classify climate suitability for each species into a presence/absence format, all cells
above the “Minimum training presence cumulative threshold” from the Maxent output were deemed as
climatically suitable. We refer to these presence/absence suitable climate layers as ’PA suitable climate’.
Percentage change in area of suitable climate was performed upon the PA suitable climate layers for each
species, each emission scenario, and for each timeframe. Area of suitable climate for each layer was
calculated using the “SDMTools” package (VanDerWal et al. 2014) in R V3.1.2 (R Core Team 2014).
Variability in the change in climate envelope area was calculated as the range between the best and worst
case emission scenarios for each species. For some species, the high (A2) emission scenario was the worst
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
20
case scenario (e.g. greatest loss or smallest increase in bioclimatic envelope), for others, the worst case
scenario was the medium (A1B) emission scenario.
Suitable climate overlap was calculated as the areas where current and future PA suitable climate
intersected. For each species and each scenario and timeframe, the number of cells which contained
occurrence records (occupied cells) in the area of overlap was calculated as a proportion of the species’
total number of cells containing records. For this analysis, only occupied cells and climate overlap within
the southwestern ecoregion of Australia were considered. In order to assess each species’ potential
exposure (an element of vulnerability) to climate change, the minimum and maximum proportion of
occupied cells in the suitable climate overlap across emission scenarios was plotted for each species for
both 2030 and 2080. A reduction in proportion of occupied cells in the suitable climate overlap of each
species was taken as a proxy for ‘reduction in population size’ and was aligned to the IUCN criteria, where a
90% decrease in population size indicates a “critically endangered” classification, a 70% decrease entails an
“endangered” classification, and a 50% reduction results in a “vulnerable” assessment (IUCN 2012). Best
and worst case emission scenarios were indicated.
Species were classified into potential management intensity groups based primarily on their
predicted reduction in percentage of occurrence cells in the envelope overlap (proxy for population
reduction) under best case emission scenarios. The primary groupings were 0 - 25% reduction, 25 – 50%
reduction, and >50% reduction. The former two categories were selected to separate the species deemed
not threatened by IUCN population reduction criteria into two categories of equal range, and classified as
“0 - 25% population loss under best case scenario due to climate change” and “25 - 50% population loss
under best case scenario due to climate change” respectively. The latter category was selected to
represent the IUCN threatened categories, with 50 – 70% reduction indicating vulnerable species, and >70%
representing endangered and critically endangered species. These species were classified as “Significantly
threatened due to climate change”. Following this, any species which was predicted to lose more than 99%
of its climate area under worst case emission scenario were placed in a “Potentially extinct due to climate
change” category. Species that were in either of the IUCN not threatened categories but were predicted to
lose more than 90% of their population under worst case scenarios were placed in a “High uncertainty,
potentially at risk from climate change” category.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
21
Results
Inclusion of climate change in existing recovery documentation
Of the 76 recovery documents examined, 42.1% included climate change as a threatening process
(Figure 3). Other threats of significance included habitat loss (mentioned in 90.8% of plans), introduced
species (77.6%) and inappropriate fire regimes (71.1%). No documents dated prior to 2004 identified
climate change as a threat (Figure 4). A marked increase in the proportion of documents including climate
change is evident from 2005 onwards; 53% of documents dated from 2005-2009 and 75% of documents
dated from 2010-2014 identified climate change as a potential threat. The proportion of recovery
documents that identified climate change varied among taxonomic groups (Table 3). Climate change was
identified as a threatening process in more than 50% of recovery documents for amphibians, mammals and
reptiles; for all other groups this proportion was less than 50%.
Figure 3 Proportion of recovery documents that have identified each of eight threatening processes.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
22
Figure 4 Proportion of recovery documents noting climate change as a threatening process across years.
Table 3 Inclusion of climate change in recovery documentation for vertebrate groups in southwestern
Australia by faunal group. Proportion of recovery documents with climate change listed as a threat
shown in parenthesis.
Group
Threatened or Priority
Fauna
Recovery Documents
Recovery Documents
with Climate Change
Inclusion
Amphibians
4
3
2 (66.7%)
Birds
44
35
12 (34.3%)
Fish
6
3
1 (33.3%)
Mammals
31
26
13 (50.0%)
Reptiles
38
9
5 (55.6%)
Total
123
76
33 (43.4%)
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
23
Bioclimatic modelling
Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (winter rain) was the most important climate variable, with an
overall average importance of 25.9% (Figure 5). This average importance increased to 48.5% when only
considering the 18 species for which it was the major driver (results not presented). Soil was the next most
important variable at 13.3% overall and 39.4% for the six species for which it was the major driver. This
result possibly represents the soil affinities of flora which provides habitat or resources for some of the
threatened fauna. Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter, Annual Precipitation, Maximum
Temperature of the Warmest Quarter, Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter, Precipitation of the
Driest Month, and Precipitation of the Driest Quarter all had a small, but comparable importance, ranging
from 7.5% to 5.9% (Figure 5).
Figure 5 Average importance of climatic variables for all species modelled. Climatic variable
abbreviations as in Table 2.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
24
By both 2030 and 2080, the majority of threatened vertebrates were projected to experience
decreases in the area of their climate envelopes (Figure 6 andFigure 7). By 2030, the area of climate
envelopes for 33 species (76.7%) was predicted to be smaller than current (Figure 6). For the remaining 10
species, nine were predicted to have an increase in the area of climate envelope, regardless of best or
worst case emission scenario. Only one species, the Western bristlebird (Dasyornis longirostris), was
predicted to experience an increased area of climate envelope under best case scenario, and a reduction of
climate envelope under worst case scenario (Figure 6). Four species (Ninox connivens connivens, Spicospina
flammocaerulea, Ctenotus delli, and Cacatua pastinator pastinator) were predicted to lose more than 90%
of their climate envelope under best case emission scenarios, and an additional two species (Nyctophilus
major and Geocrinia lutea) were predicted to lose more than 90% of their climate envelope area under
worst case emission scenarios by 2030 (Figure 6).
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
25
Figure 6 Range in the predicted percent change in area of climate envelope by 2030 for species modelled.
Best case scenario is the emission scenario with the least reduction or greatest expansion of envelope
area, worst case scenario is the emission scenario with the most reduction or least expansion of envelope
area.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
26
Figure 7 Range in the predicted percent change in area of climate envelope by 2080 for species modelled.
Best case scenario is the emission scenario with the least reduction or greatest expansion of envelope
area, worst case scenario is the emission scenario with the most reduction or least expansion of envelope
area.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
27
The changes in area of climate envelope displayed greater variability across emission scenarios by
2080, with climate envelopes of ten species (23.3 %) projected to increase under best case scenarios.
However, the bioclimatic envelopes of eight of these species were shown to decrease under worst case
scenarios (Figure 7). Overall, climate envelopes were projected to decrease in area by 2080 for 32 species
(74.4 %), regardless of best or worst case emission scenarios. Three species (7.0 %) were projected to
experience increased climate envelope area by 2080 under both best and worst case emission scenarios
(Figure 7). By 2080, three species were predicted to lose more than 90% of the area of their climate
envelope under best case scenarios (N. connivens connivens, C. delli, and C. pastinator pastinator). Under
worst case emission scenarios, 15 species were predicted to lose more than 90% of the area of their climate
envelopes (Figure 7).
Using percentage of occupied cells in the climate envelope overlap as a proxy for realised
distribution, we estimated that by 2030 under best case emission scenarios, 36 of the 43 species modelled
would retain at least 50% of their current populations (Figure 8). When worst case scenarios were
considered, seven of these 36 species (Calyptorhynchus banksii naso, Morelia spilota imbricata, Lerista
lineata, Parantechinus apicalis, Platycercus icterotis xanthogenys, Galaxias truttaceus, and D. longirostris)
were predicted to lose more than 50% of their current realised distribution (Figure 8). Of the remaining
seven species modelled, three (C. pastinator pastinator, S. flammocaerulea and C. delli) were predicted to
lose more than 90% of their current occupied cells under best and worst case scenarios (thus ‘critically
endangered’), with two of these species (C. pastinator pastinator and S. flammocaerulea), predicted to lose
all their current realised distribution. Ninox connivens connivens is predicted to lose more than 70% under
both scenarios, while G. lutea is predicted to lose more than 70% and all of its population under best and
worst case emission scenarios respectively, meeting the IUCN criteria for ‘endangered’. Two species
(Atrichornis clamosus and N. major) are predicted to lose between 50 and 70% of their current realised
distribution under best case scenarios, thus meeting the IUCN criteria for ‘vulnerable’ status. Under worst
case scenarios, A. clamosus was predicted to lose more than 95% occurrence cells in the overlap of current
and future bioclimatic envelopes, while N. major was predicted to lose nearly 90% of its current realised
distribution (Figure 8). Of these seven species predicted to lose 50% or more of their occupied cells, five
were not considered to be under threat from climate change according to recovery documentation.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
28
Much greater variability was observed between best and worst case scenarios by 2080 than for the
year 2030, likely reflecting greater differentiation among the emission scenarios over time. By 2080 under
best case scenarios, 32 species were predicted to retain more than 50% of their current realised
distribution (Figure 9). Of these, 17 species (Geocrinia alba, Isoodon obesulus fusciventer, Myrmecobius
fasciatus, Calyptorhynchus baudinii, Pseudomys shortridgei, Petrogale lateralis lateralis, Bettongia
penicillata ogilbyi, G. lutea, Nannatherina balstoni, Hylacola cauta whitlocki, Psophodes nigrogularis
oberon, L. lineata, S. flammocaerulea, Macropus eugenii derbianus, D. longirostris, Pseudocheirus
occidentalis, and Falsistrellus mackenziei) were predicted to lose more than 50% of their populations by
2080 under worst case emission scenarios. Our results suggested that regardless of emission scenario, at
least 11 species could be significantly threatened by climate change by 2080 (Figure 9). Four species (C.
banksii naso, Pseudomys occidentalis, M. spilota imbricata and P. apicalis) are predicted to lose 50% to 70%
of their population under their best case emission scenario. Under their worst case scenarios, these
species were predicted to lose >70% (M. spilota imbricata), >90% (P. occidentalis and P. apicalis) and all of
their current realised distribution (C. banksii naso). A further three species (G. truttaceus, N. connivens
connivens, and P. icterotis xanthogenys) are predicted to lose more than 70% of their occurrence cells
under best case emission scenarios. Of these, N. connivens connivens is predicted to lose 80%, and G.
truttaceus and P. icterotis xanthogenys are predicted to lose all of their current realised distribution under
worst case emission scenarios. A. clamosus, C. pastinator pastinator, C. delli, and N. major are predicted to
lose all of their current realised distribution under both best and worst case emission scenarios by 2080
(Figure 9).
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
29
Figure 8 Range in percent of occurrence records in predicted area of climate envelope overlap by 2030 for each species. Species marked by a circle
indicate a prediction of no suitable climate under at least the worst case emission scenario.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
30
Figure 9 Range in percent of occurrence records in predicted area of climate envelope overlap by 2080 for each species. Species marked by a circle
indicate a prediction of no suitable climate under at least the worst case emission scenario.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
31
Based on the results of the bioclimatic modelling, we ranked species according to their potential
exposure to climate change threats against a gradient of increasing management intervention, placing
them into proposed ‘management response’ categories (Figure 10). Four species were identified as likely
to go extinct due to their exposure to climate change (category A), five species were identified as
potentially significantly threated by climate change (category B), and a further eight species had a very
uncertain future (category C). The recovery documentation for seven of these 17 species (41.2%) did not
identify climate change as a threat (Table 4).
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
32
Figure 10 Proposed gradient of management interventions for mitigating climate change impacts for
threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
33
Table 4 Climate change threats and mitigation identified in recovery documents for threatened vertebrate species
considered most exposed to climate change threats.
Group
Species
Common name
Climate change threats
Proposed mitigation
Mammals
Isoodon obesulus fusciventer
Quenda
Not identified
Not identified
Myrmecobius fasciatus
Numbat
Not thought to reduce distribution, could
Research to assess vulnerability
lead to increased fires
to climate change
Not identified
Not identified
Black-flanked
Changes in rainfall and temperature
Translocations to increase
Rock-wallaby
leading to habitat loss and thus
number of populations
Nyctophilus major
Central Longeared Bat
Petrogale lateralis lateralis
decreased body condition, reproduction
and survival, large bushfires and drought
Birds
Parantechinus apicalis
Dibbler
Not identified
Not identified
Pseudomys shortridgei
Heath Mouse
Not identified
Not identified
Pseudomys occidentalis
Western Mouse
Not identified
Not identified
Atrichornis clamosus
Noisy Scrub-bird
Increased temperatures leading to loss of
Not identified, translocation not
remnant vegetation and food sources,
linked to climate change
increase in invasive species, increased
mitigation
lightning strikes and fires
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
34
Group
Species
Common name
Climate change threats
Proposed mitigation
Cacatua pastinator pastinator
Muir’s Corella
Changes in ecosystem functioning and
Not identified
biodiversity, southward movement of
feral bees due to warming
Calyptorhynchus banksii naso
Ninox connivens connivens
Forest Red-
Changes in ecosystem functioning and
Not identified
tailed Black
biodiversity, southward movement of
Cockatoo
feral bees due to warming
Barking Owl
Not identified
Not identified
Not identified
Not identified
(SW population)
Reptiles
Platycercus icterotis
Western Rosella
xanthogenys
(inland ssp.)
Ctenotus delli
Dell’s Skink
Not identified
Not identified
White-bellied
Increased fire frequencies, loss of canopy
Research hydrological
Frog
continuity, reduced rainfall
requirements, investigate
Amphibians Geocrinia alba
manipulation of habitat with
artificial water systems, monitor
ground water, rainfall and
temperature
Geocrinia lutea
Nornalup Frog
Not identified
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
Not identified
35
Group
Fish
Species
Common name
Climate change threats
Proposed mitigation
Spicospina flammocaerulea
Sunset Frog
Not identified
Not identified
Galaxias truttaceus
Western Trout
Alteration of flows and water
Research temperature
Minnow
temperatures
tolerances, translocation not
linked to climate change
mitigation
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
36
Discussion
Despite increasing attention paid to climate change as a threat in recovery and action plans for
threatened species, particularly after 2005, our results demonstrate that there are still a number of species
that are likely to be under threat from climate change that do not have this threat addressed in their
recovery documentation. Our analyses identified 17 species that were either potentially at risk from
extinction due to climate change, significantly threatened due to climate change, or have a very uncertain
future, and are potentially at risk from climate change. The recovery documentation for 10 of these 17
species (58.8%) did not identify climate change as a threat. At the very least, the recovery documentation
of these species should be updated to include recovery actions that address climate change. A high priority
should be given to undertaking full climate change vulnerability analyses for these 17 most threatened
species. While our results give an indication of likely ‘exposure’ to climate change, they do not take into
account other aspects, such as intrinsic biological traits that could either make species vulnerable
(Dickinson et al. 2014), or allow them to persist despite high exposure to climate change. These traits
should be used in combination with estimates of exposure for a full assessment of vulnerability, where
three major components are included: exposure (extent of climate change likely to be experienced by the
species), sensitivity (degree to which the persistence of a species is dependent on climatic factors) and
adaptive capacity (capacity of a species to adapt to climate change) (Williams et al. 2008; Bagne et al. 2011;
Dawson et al. 2011; Foden et al. 2013).
Our analysis showed that threatened vertebrates in southwestern Australia are likely to exhibit a
variable response to climate change, with the majority of threatened vertebrates projected to experience
decreases in the area of their climate envelopes. We have used this variable response to prioritise climate
change mitigation actions for threatened species. As a first step, we ranked all the species modelled
according to their predicted exposure to climate change and placed them into categories based on a
proposed gradient of management intervention aimed at mitigating this exposure. Following Foin et al.
(1998), we propose that recovery actions aimed at reducing climate change threats for species falling into
category E (0-25% population loss under best case scenario) are likely to be focussed on preserving current
habitat. Recovery actions for species placed into categories D (25-50% population loss) and C (highly
uncertain future, potentially at risk from climate change) are likely to be focussed on preservation and
restoration of habitats, regular monitoring and targeted investigations to address knowledge gaps limiting
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
37
the prediction of their likely response to climate change. Those species placed in category B (significantly
threatened) are likely to require the establishment of active management strategies specifically targeted to
mitigating risks associated with climate change.
It is unclear what recovery actions would be most appropriate for the four species (Atrichornis
clamosus, Cacatua pastinator pastinator, Ctenotus delli and Nyctophilus major) that are potentially at risk
of extinction due to climate change (category A). Only two of these four species have climate change
identified as a threat, even though our modelling suggests that there will be no climatically suitable habitat
for these species in the future. Included amongst the five species identified in this category is the
‘Endangered’ Noisy Scrub-bird, Atrichornis clamosus. This semi-flightless, insectivorous passerine has a
very narrow distribution, restricted to dense scrub and low forest habitats in the South Coast region of
Western Australia. Previous assessments of vulnerability to climate change for threatened species have
suggested that the most narrowly distributed species, such as the Noisy Scrub-bird, are the most vulnerable
to climate change (Lee et al. 2015). Since its re-discovery in 1961, it has been the subject of intense
management that has included both habitat protection and translocations to new sites to save the species
from extinction (see Danks 1997, and references therein; Gilfillan et al. 2009). Habitat alteration due to
changes in fire regimes has been considered a leading factor responsible for the decline of the Noisy Scrubbird (Smith and Forrester 1981; Smith 1985), and extensive fire continues to be the single most significant
threat to their persistence (Gilfillan et al. 2009). Our results suggest that this threat might be compounded
by the loss of climatically suitable habitat in the future, with modelling results predicting a 74.5% loss of
bioclimatic envelope by 2030, and 100% by 2080. This species is currently extant in only two restricted
locations within close proximity of each other, although it was more widespread in the 1800s and therefore
may have a wider climatic envelope than suggested by the modelling. Modelling of the species using pre
1976 records was not undertaken as southwestern Australia underwent a reduction in rainfall in 1975
(Hope et al. 2006) and therefore would have been climatically different. More detailed analyses of
climatically suitable habitat are needed for this and other species in this category.
Our bioclimatic modelling identified five threatened species (Galaxias truttaceus, C. banksii naso, P.
icterotis xanthogenys, N. connivens connivens, and P. occidentalis) that are potentially significantly
threatened by climate change (Category B), and we proposed that active management strategies be used to
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
38
mitigate this threat for these species. Climate change is listed as a ‘potential threat’ in recovery planning
documents for both G. truttaceus and C. banksii naso, albeit rather broadly, noting its effect on water
temperature and river flows, and its effect on exacerbating other threats respectively. In contrast, climate
change was not identified as a threat for P. icterotis xanthogenys, N. connivens connivens, or P. occidentalis.
Although G. truttaceus is predicted to lose more than 70% of its population by 2080 under its best case
emission scenarios, and all of its population by 2080 under worst case emission scenarios, the modelling
suggests that suitable climate will persist for this species in areas where they presently do not occur. As
Western Australian populations of this species complete their life-cycle within freshwater habitats, rather
than having the amphidromous life-cycle typical of other populations (Humphries 1989, 1990), their ability
to colonise these climatically suitable habitats without anthropogenic intervention in the future is doubtful.
More generally, climate related changes in flow are considered a primary threat to regional freshwater fish
assemblages, especially species that undertake distinct migrations to complete life cycles (Beatty et al.
2010; Morrongiello et al. 2011; Beatty et al. 2014). In the case of G. truttaceus, recent research
demonstrates spawning, larval drift, and juvenile recruitment is strongly linked to river flow (PGC
unpublished data; see also Morgan et al. 2016). Although thermal tolerance of the species has not been
determined, the risk of the thermal tolerances of fish being exceeded (Davies, 2010), could directly impact
reproduction and growth (sensu Pen and Potter 1991) or lead to a decoupling of the thermal and
hydrological conditions essential for life-history strategies (Morrongiello et al. 2011). Two of the three
known populations from Western Australia occur in catchments currently or potentially impacted by flow
alteration due to surface or groundwater abstraction. Active management strategies required for this
species could focus on the protection of in-stream and riparian habitats at currently known sites and
protection of specific flow regimes in developed catchments to maintain key life history events. Given the
inability of this species to colonise new areas of suitable climate in the future, and that the species is
considered an evolutionary significant unit (Morgan et al. 2016) translocation may be necessary, noting
that this option should be considered together with the possible effects of introducing a new species to the
biological communities and ecosystem function of the recipient catchment (Olden et al. 2011).
Each of the three bird species identified as Category B, and therefore requiring active management
of climate change threats, show substantial reduction in suitable habitat under all emission scenarios by
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
39
2030, with further reductions by 2080. For both C. banksii naso and P. icterotis xanthogenys our modelling
indicated progressive contraction of suitable climatic conditions to the south-western portion of their
present range, whereas for N. connivens connivens, future suitable climate conditions generally occur close
to existing known populations. Each of these species have biological traits or habitat associations that
indicate actions that could potentially mitigate risks associated with changing climate conditions by
maintaining or increasing the extent and quality of habitats to support increasingly concentrated
population distributions. For example, all three species are cavity nesters and therefore rely on older
forests with suitable nesting hollows (e.g. Garnett et al. 2011). As up to 16% of suitable nest trees are lost
per decade as the result of wind fall, fire and forest maintenance (Johnstone et al. 2013), active
management should target those remaining ‘old-growth’ forests within the predicted future distribution
and include appropriate fire and forest management to protect nesting sites. While the predicted future
climate envelop for C. banksii naso contains relatively continuous forest, the western rosella P. icterotis
xanthogenys inhabits fragmented remnant vegetation within agricultural areas of southwestern Australia’s
interior region. Active management for this species should also aim to maintain or improve the habitat
mosaic within the southwest corner of its current range to aid dispersal into this region and support
sustainability of populations within the future climate envelope. The current distribution of N. connivens
connivens includes only a few populations restricted to forested habitats, and our modelling suggests that
these suitable climate conditions generally occur close to existing known populations. Active management
for this species should aim to protect areas of suitable habitat within and nearby the currently known
locations of each population.
Very little future suitable climate is predicted for P. occidentalis by 2080 under medium and high
emission scenarios, and contraction into the southern region of its current climate envelope under the low
emission scenario. Predictions for this species by 2030 are similar across emission scenarios, and
comparable to that of the low emission scenario by 2080, although less severe. With the exception of the
two worst case scenarios for this species, future suitable climate is predicted to exist within regions which
are both currently climatically suitable and vegetated, some of which is classified as National Park. As
noted in the IUCN assessment for this species (Morris et al. 2008), monitoring of current populations is
recommended as most populations are found in a highly fragmented landscape. Inclusion of climate
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
40
change related mitigation activities for this species could include planning for translocation of populations
to predicted climatically suitable vegetated or protected areas if monitoring detects possible effects of
climate change upon the populations.
Amongst the group of species that we identified as having an uncertain response to climate change
(category C), were three frog species (Geocrinia alba, G. lutea and Spicospina flammocaerulea). In
agreement with other studies that have suggested that amphibians are particularly vulnerable to climate
change (e.g. Lee et al. 2015), our study suggests that these frog species may be at risk. All three have
specialised habitat requirements, particularly for breeding (Wardell-Johnson and Roberts 1993; Roberts et
al. 1999; Anstis 2013), and restricted distributions. Some species, such as Spicospina flammocaerulea have
survived through major shifts in rainfall (particularly markedly drier phases in the Pliocene and Pleistocene)
and higher temperatures in the Miocene (Byrne et al. 2008, 2011; Rix et al. 2015). This, together with their
phylogeographic structure, is consistent with dispersal capability (Edwards and Roberts 2011). For other
species, such as Geocrinia lutea, dispersal to areas of future suitable climate may be severely limited by
landscape boundaries and habitat availability (Wardell-Johnson and Roberts 1993).
Projected population loss for species falling into categories D and E varied from 0-50%. Seven
species listed in these categories had climate change noted in their recovery plans and associated
documentation. The default inclusion of climate in the planning for these species has been based on the
projected general trends of increasing temperature and declining rainfall in the region as well as modelling.
Because the majority of these species have distributions orientated north-south, the impacts of climate
change on the population persistence into the future are likely to be low. This assumes those populations
currently inhabiting area’s in the northern extent of their range have the ability to disperse south to follow
the predicted future trajectory of suitable climate conditions. For these species, the establishment of
targeted monitoring programs that assess population status and species distributions will provide an
opportunity for the early detection of climate related impacts on individual species, and therefore the
opportunity to develop and implement active management to mitigate the effects of climate change if
needed.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
41
Using the case study of threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia, this study
successfully ranked species in terms of their potential exposure to climate change using bioclimatic
modelling, and proposed a gradient of management interventions that varied from active management
actions such as translocations through to habitat conservation. Such an approach aimed at prioritising
climate change mitigation in threatened species would be useful for other regions where it has been
predicted that climate change could have a negative impact on biodiversity. This pragmatic approach
allows a first prioritisation, where species likely to be most at risk can be targeted for further attention.
Where climate change has not been identified as a key threatening process in recovery documentation for
these species, this should be included in updated recovery plans, and comprehensive climate change
vulnerability analyses should be conducted for those species considered most at risk.
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
42
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Contact Details
Barbara Cook
Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management,
UWA
[email protected]
Ben Ford
Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management,
UWA
[email protected]
Bronte Van Helden
Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management,
UWA
[email protected]
Dale Roberts
Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management,
UWA
[email protected]
Paul Close
Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management,
UWA
[email protected]
Peter Speldewinde
Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management,
UWA
[email protected]
Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia.
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