Download New Economy Research, Strategy, Policy and Evaluation

Internationalisation Strategy Refresh
Baseline data analysis
Research Team
Spring 2016
Refresh on data, covering:Focus today:•
Summary of global prospects, with national growth comparisons and forecasts
•
Change in the world’s largest economies and their share of global GDP
•
Sectoral information and analysis of trading partners
•
GM level: EU markets and City Region data is analysed - key trading partners
Also covered in baseline refresh:•
Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment and trade in goods
•
Greater Manchester Business Survey – propensity to export
•
Visitor Economy
US and UK stronger growth in 2015-2017. Weak Euro Area. BRICs
mixed - China slowing 7%, India stronger growth up to 8% by 2017,
Brazil/Russia weak. Watch: Mexico Indonesia Nigeria Turkey
Focus on BRICs – GDP growth rates from 2000 to 2014, China and
India remain strong, Russia & Brazil slow
Source: IMF World economic Outlook Database.
Performance of other example target markets, from the 2013
Internationalisation Strategy, remains mixed (US & UEA stronger)
Source: IMF World economic Outlook Database.
Where are the worlds growth markets?
Top 5 by scale: China, US, India, Japan and Germany
Percentage of world economic output by major countries (GDP size
in PPP, 2015)
•
The chart shows the top 15
economies (ordered by 2015
size) in terms of percentage
share of world GDP.
•
China is now the largest
economy, and its share of
world GDP has grown from
9.7% in 2005 to a projected
16.9% in 2015
•
In 2005 the US accounted for
almost 20% of world GDP,
the 2015 projected GDP
output is 16.1%.
•
India, Indonesia and Saudi
Arabia have all increased
their share of world GDP in
the last decade
•
The remaining BRICS
countries presented in the
chart, brazil and Russia, have
seen a slight decline in their
share of world GDP
•
The European countries in
the top 15 have all seen a
decline in their share of world
GDP in the last decade
Percentage of world economic output (GDP at PPP)
25
20
15
2005
2010
10
5
2015
0
Source: IMF World economic Outlook Database. 2015 figures are
estimates as not yet full year
Following the global economic crisis, UK trade in good dropped in 2009.
Both imports and exports of goods then steadily increased until 2012.
From 2013 imports have remained flat, exports peaked in Q2 of 2013
•
Total UK trade
exports for August
2015 are £23.5
billion.
•
This is an increase
of £2.3 billion (11
per cent) compared
with August 2014.
•
Total trade imports
for August 2015 are
£30.5 billion.
•
This is a decrease
of £1.9 billion (5.8
per cent) compared
with August 2014.
•
Note – data points
are imports and
export totals each
quarter
UK Export in Goods: Top trading partners 2015 and 2014 – US and
Eurozone are still the UK’s major trading countries. The US alone
accounts for 15% of total UK exports (2015 year-to-date)
Source: HM revenue and Customs www.uktradeinfo.com
Data is ranked in descending order of the current year to date value
The analysis includes both EU and non-EU trade
Values are expressed in £ million and are provisional – may be updated
UK exports in goods to the EU was well over half of total exports
However, the last two years (2013, 2014) have seen an increase in the
proportion of exports to Non-EU countries
Source: HM revenue and Customs www.uktradeinfo.com
The analysis includes both EU and non-EU trade
Summary of opportunities by country
•
China: Overtook US as the world’s largest economy (2014). Key sectoral opportunities
include: Advanced Engineering / Automotive, Electrical equipment, Financial and
Professional, Higher Education, Digital & Creative, Fashion/Textiles, Health Innovation.
•
India: GM has extensive links to India, due to historical trade Indian population in UK.
Opportunities include key growth sectors such as Professional Services, Manufacturing,
Digital, and Health Innovation
•
UAE (focussing on Abu Dhabi/Dubai): Opportunities in nuclear power supply chain
manufacturing and expertise, as well as strong existing links to GM
•
US: Despite China overtaking, still experienced increased growth and is a key market for
GM exports, with links to New York, Washington, Chicago
•
Germany: Growth set to increase slightly, key trading partner in GM growth sectors
•
France: Growth opportunities for GM supply chain Manufacturing, as well as strengthening
existing Financial Services links
•
Netherlands: UK has seen high levels of export growth. Main sectors: Medical and
pharmaceutical, advanced engineering/vehicles, general industrial machinery
•
Nordics: UK export growth of 14% since 2010. Over 40% to Sweden, Norway experienced
strongest growth. Key markets: Chemicals, Clothing, Transport Equip.
Greater Manchester EU vs Non-EU trade data from HMRC shows that GM
generally outperformed the North West region and the UK nationally with
regard to growth in the export of goods between 2013 and 2014
Millions
£6,000
£1,258
£1,866
£1,862
£1,715
£1,538
2010
£1,390
2009
£1,406
£933
£474
£1,434
2008
£1,768
2007
Manufactured goods, except transport
Mineral fuels, energy, fuels, oils, bulk
chemicals
Agri, food, drink, basic materials.
£1,378
£981
2006
£1,598
£1,268
2005
£1,088
£333
£1,331
£1,396
£1,424
£1,497
£1,275
£308
£508
£1,056
£287
£458
£1,000
Machinery and transport equipment
£1,257
£1,185
£1,251
£1,218
£2,000
£1,701
£3,000
£1,355
£3,032
£4,000
£1,517
£1,623
£5,000
£671
£691
£769
£693
2011
2,012
2013
2014
£0
Source: HMRC GM businesses 2005 to 2014. Note data are nominal values and not adjusted for changes in prices
Propensity to export (not total value of exports):
The GM Business Surveys show that the number of businesses exporting
in GM has declined slightly in the last 3 years
2012
2013
2014
% companies exporting in GM
12.9%
11.4%
11.2%
SMEs Exporting in the UK
19%
21%
21%
•
Data from the GM Business Survey shows a 1.7% point decrease in the proportion of
companies exporting between 2012 and 2014
•
BIS SME barometer, shows increasing numbers of SMEs exporting nationally (21%).
Not comparable to the GM survey, but indicates potential to grow support
•
Main barriers to exporting:
•
Regulations/legal requirements were cited as the biggest barriers
•
Geo-political risks
•
Language and cultural barriers.
Source: Greater Manchester Business
Survey and BIS SME Barometer