Download czech_economy

CZECH ECONOMY
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
1
 Overview of the Czech Economy





GDP
Employment
Balance of Payments
FDIs
Balance of Budget
 Industry
 Foreign Trade
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
2
Main Characteristics of the Czech Economy
 High economic growth until mid 2008 – catching up
the EU GDP level (83% of EU average in 2009), after
recent recessions drop to 81% of EU average in 20102012
 Big portion of manufacturing sector (24% GDP)
 Small, open economy
 Strong trade and ownership links with EU
 Rapid and balanced real convergence
 Low inflation
 External balance – current account in a slight deficit
(-1.4% GDP in 2013) due to growing trade balance
surplus
 Fiscal prudence necessity – reducing of public deficit
(1.4% GDP in 2013) and decelerating of public debt
(46,0% GDP in 2013)
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
3
Gross Domestic Product
 Peak in the first quarter 2006 (7.6% growth)
 During 2009, the Czech economy fell in the deepest
recession in its recent history due to global crisis
 GDP declined by 4.4% in 2009, signs of recovery occurred
in the first half of 2010
 Close relationship between domestic economy and
external demand behind this development
 Czech GDP 1.8% growth in 2011 - slightly higher than
average one in EU 1.6%,
 Recovery was not uniform (industry vs. construction)
 The economy declined by 0.9% in 2012 and by 0,9% in
2013 (y-o-y change data)
 The outlook for this year predicts 1.2% GDP growth
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
4
GDP
Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
5
GDP by countries
Source: Eurostat
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
6
GDP BY SECTORS
Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
7
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
 Initially current account deficit caused by a
balance of trade deficit compensated by inflow of
foreign capital
 Pro-export effect of investment helped the
balance of trade to become positive (since 2005)
 But the current account as a whole remained in
red numbers due to negative income balance
(includes the outflow of dividends and reinvested
earnings)
 High share of FDI is being financed from
reinvested earnings from previous investments
 On the other hand inflow of foreign capital is one
of the major causes of the raise of external debt
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
8
CURRENT ACCOUNT
Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
9
INWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
10
FDI BY COUNTRIES
Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
11
OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
12
GENERAL DEBT AND BALANCE OF BUDGET
Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
13
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

Two recessions in recent development, 2009 and
2012, in 2013 growth again

Significant decline of industrial production in 2009
(-13.6 %), then a period of growth (8.6% in 2010 and
5.9 % in 2011)

Industrial production: 0.8 % decline in 2012, in
January - December 2013 growth 0.5 %


Important share of automotive industry (25.4 %)

Outlook for 2014 – the final output depends essentially
on the situation in partner countries
New orders: growth in 2012 (2.2 % y/y), non-domestic
(5.6 % y/y), growth in fourth quarter 2013 (13.5 % y/y),
non-domestic (17.8 % y/y), growth in 2013 (4.3 % y/y)
non-domestic (5.8 % y/y)
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
14
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
15
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCITON
Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
16
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
17
FOREIGN TRADE
 Foreign trade reached 350.7 billion CZK
surplus in 2013
 Exports grew by 3,0 % and imports by 1.8 %
in 2013
 Strong reliance on manufacturing (53.9 %
share of machinery and transport equipment
in 2013) and on exports to EU-28 (81 % of
total exports in 2013)
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
18
FOREIGN TRADE
Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
19
EXPORT BY COMMODITY (%)
Source: CZSO,
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
20
IMPORT BY COMMODITY (%)
Source: CZSO
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
21
EXPORT BY COUNTRIES (%)
Source: CZSO
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
22
IMPORT BY COUNTRIES (%)
Source: CZSO
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
23
The Czech Economy
Jaroslav Vomastek
Ministry of Industry and Trade
Na Františku 32, Praha 1
www.mpo.cz
CZECH ECONOMY
Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek
Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
24