Survey

* Your assessment is very important for improving the work of artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Survey

Document related concepts

Transcript

7.1 Notes (continued) AP Statistics Types of Errors Regardless of which hypothesis is the claim, always start by assuming that H0 is true. One of two decisions is made: Decision made on incomplete data! (Sample rather than population) What if we make a mistake???? Type I Error: Type II Error: Decision Actual Truth of H0 H0 is true H0 is false Do not reject H0 Reject H0 Example: The USDA limit for salmonella contamination for chicken is 20%. A meat-packing company claims that its chicken falls within the limit. You perform a hypothesis test to determine whether the company’s claim is true. When will a type I or type II error occur? What are the outcomes? _________________________: maximum allowable probability of making a type I error. It is denoted by ∝ (lowercase Greek letter alpha) Small level of significance probability of rejecting a true H0 small Test Statistic: statistic compared to parameter in H0 Decisions, Decisions, Decisions…. One way to decide whether to reject H0 is to decide if the probability value, P-value, is less than or equal to the significance level: 𝑃 ≤∝ 𝑃 >∝ BUT… we need to talk about tails first! Example: For each claim, state H0 and Ha. Then determine whether the hypothesis test is a lefttailed test, right-tailed test, or two-tailed test. Sketch a normal sampling distribution and shad the area for the P-value. ~A university claims that the proportion of its students who graduate in four years is 82% ~A water faucet manufacturer claims that the mean flow rate of a certain type of faucet is less than 2.5 gallons per minute. ~A cereal company claims that the mean weight of the contents of its 20-ounce size cereal boxes is more than 20 ounces. Example: You perform a hypothesis test for each of the following claims. How should you interpret your decision if you reject H0? If you fail to reject H0? ~H0 (Claim): A university claims that the proportion of its students who graduate in four years is 82%. ~H0 (Claim): A government safety administration claims that the mean stopping distance (on a dry surface) for a Chevrolet Malibu is less than 148 feet. Assignment: Page 331 # 17 – 33 odd