Download Chapter 1

Chapter 1
Introduction to
Macroeconomics
1
Chapter Outline
 What
Macroeconomics Is About
 What Macroeconomists Do
 Why Macroeconomists Disagree
2
What Macroeconomics Is About



Macroeconomics:
the study of structure and performance of national economies
and government policies that affect economic performance
Issues addressed by macroeconomists:
 Long-run economic growth
 Business cycles
 Unemployment
 Inflation
 The international economy
 Macroeconomic policy
Aggregation: from microeconomics to macroeconomics
3
Long-run economic growth
Figure 1.1 Output of the U.S. economy, 1869-2008
Sources: Real GNP 1869–1928 from Christina D. Romer, “The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product,
1869–1908,” Journal of Political Economy, 97, 1 (February 1989), pp. 22–23; real GDP 1929 onward from FRED database, Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis, research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPCA. Data from Romer were rescaled to 2005 prices.
4
Fig 1.1 台灣實質國內生產毛額(RGDP)
Fig 1.1 台灣實質國內生產毛額(RGDP)
160000
140000
實質產出(億）
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
年度
實質國內生產毛額(RGDP)
5
Figure 1.2 Average labor productivity in the United
States, 1900-2008
Sources: Employment in thousands of workers 14 and older for 1900–1947 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, pp. 126–127; workers
16 and older for 1948 onward from FRED database, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV. Average labor productivity is output
divided by employment, where output is from Fig. 1.1.
6
19
7
19 8
7
19 9
8
19 0
8
19 1
8
19 2
8
19 3
8
19 4
8
19 5
8
19 6
8
19 7
8
19 8
8
19 9
9
19 0
9
19 1
9
19 2
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
9
19 6
9
19 7
9
19 8
9
20 9
0
20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
0
20 3
0
20 4
0
20 5
0
20 6
0
20 7
0
20 8
0
20 9
10
新台幣（元）
Fig 1.2 台灣平均勞動生產力(基期：2006)
Fig 1.2 台灣平均勞動生產力(基期：2006)
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
年度
平均勞動生產力
7
Figure 1.3 The U.S. unemployment rate, 1890-2008
Sources: Civilian unemployment rate (people aged 14 and older until 1947, aged 16 and older after 1947) for 1890–1947 from Historical Statistics of the United States,
Colonial Times to 1970, p. 135; for 1948 onward from FRED database Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE.
8
Fig 1.3 台灣失業率（%）
Fig 1.3 台灣失業率（%）
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
20082010(1~6月)
失業率 %
9
Figure 1.4 Consumer prices in the United States,
1800-2008
Sources: Consumer price index, 1800–1946 (1967 = 100) from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, pp. 210–211; 1947 onward (1982–
1984 = 100) from FRED database, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, research. stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL. Data prior to 1971 were rescaled to a base
with1982–1984 = 100.
10
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
19
69
19
67
19
65
19
63
19
61
19
59
C PI
Fig 1.4 消費者物價指數 (2006=100)
Fig 1.4 台灣消費者物價指數(2006=100)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
年度
C PI
11
Figure 1.5 U.S. exports and imports, 1869-2008
Sources: Imports and exports of goods and services: 1869–
1959 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial
Times to 1970, pp. 864–865; 1960 onward from FRED
database, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPX and BOPM;
output is from Fig. 1.1.
12
Fig 1.5 台灣進出口佔GDP比例（%）
Fig 1.5 台灣進出口佔GDP比例（%）
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
年度
出口比例
進口比例
13
Figure 1.6 U.S. Federal government spending and
tax collections, 1869-2008
Sources: Federal spending and receipts: 1869–1929 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, p. 1104; 1930 onward from Historical
Tables, Budget of the U.S. Government, Table 1.2; Output, 1869–1928 (GNP) from Christina D. Romer, “The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of
Gross National Product, 1869–1908,” Journal of Political Economy, 97, 1 (February 1989), pp. 22–23; 1929 onward (GDP) from BEA Web site, www.bea.gov.
14
Fig 1.6 台灣政府支出及稅收佔GDP比例(%)
Fig 1.6 台灣政府歲入歲出佔GDP比例(%)
35
30
25
%
20
15
10
5
0
-5 1967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009
-10
歲入淨額占GDP比率（%）
年度
歲出淨額占GDP比率（%）
餘絀占GDP比率（%）
15