Download Presentation - San Diego Environmental Professionals

SAME: The New Future
June 9, 2016
PRESENTED BY
GRANT FERRIER
ENVIRONMENTAL BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL INC.
PUBLISHERS OF
ENVIRONMENTAL BUSINESS JOURNAL
CLIMATE CHANGE BUSINESS JOURNAL
Pacific Northwest Environmental Industry Summit, July 28, 2016, Seattle
EBI Fall Strategy Summit, November 17-18, 2016, Washington DC
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TOP TRENDS in the New Future
1. Infrastructure
2. Water
3. Information
4. Renewable & Distributed Energy
5.Transportation
6. Resilience & Adaptation
7. ‘Flat is the new up’ in Remediation
Economic & Industry Headlines
• Economy on Modest Growth Track: Low inflation, low
interest, low wages, low morale
• Oil & Energy stabilizing at low-price scenario:
Potential for Elusive Equilibrium in Supply and Prices
• Global Climate Commitments: Growth in Renewable
Energy and Emergence of Adaptation & Resilience
• Battle over Clean Power Plan and Supreme Court
• Infrastructure is key driver of growth & investment;
Emphasis on transportation, water and power
Environmental C&E in Context: Growth vs GDP
10%
USA GDP growt h
C&E Growt h
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
-2%
-4%
SOURCE: EBI Inc., San Diego CA;
CA Annual segment-by-segment research; government shutdowns
in 1995-96 and October 2013
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4 Key Growth Factors in 2004-2008
ALL ++ or + in 2004-2008
Economic Growth: GDP growth drives environmental
markets.
Real Estate: Property Values drive development,
transactions, speculation, infill, brownfields.
Federal Markets: DOE and DOD budgets and
accelerated cleanup & closure; energy programs
Oil & Gas Prices; Commodity Prices: Record prices and
record profits by oil companies; same in Mining & Natural
Resources; Growth driving global development
Source: EBJ
Key Growth Factors in 2004-2016
20042008
20092010
20112013
20142015
2016
+
--
+
+n
+n
++
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
n
n
Oil & Gas, Commodity
Prices
++
--
+
--
n
Construction Activity
+
--
+
+
+
State & Local
Infrastructure Spending
+
-
-
n
+
Economic Growth (GDP)
Property Values
Federal Government
Spending
Source: EBJ
U.S. C&E Industry: $29.6 billion in 2015
30,000
Private Sector
Government
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Environmental Business International Inc., San Diego, CA, based primarily on annual
surveys of C&E firms, units in $mil. Share of revenues derived from government clients has
gone from 59% in 2004 to 49% in 2014.
Distribution of Environmental Consulting &
Engineering Firms in 2013-2014 ($mil)
Size
Big 5 >1 bil
Firms
2013
6
Firms 2014
5
2013
Growth
2014
Growth
7,801
-9.1%
0.5%
Net 2014
Big 1 0 0 m-1 bil
45
40
10,113
-2.4%
-1.3%
Mid 2 0 -1 0 0 mil
135
139
4,980
3.3%
8.9%
S 1 0 -2 0 mil
142
144
1,938
14.3%
3.5%
S 5 -1 0 mil
187
189
1,333
5.1%
2.9%
S 1 -5 mil
567
563
1,536
7.9%
3.0%
S <1 mil
2,154
2 ,1 2 2
1,169
5.2%
6.5%
Tot al
3,236
3 ,2 0 2
28,870
-1.5%
1.9%
Source: Environmental Business Journal's annual model of the U.S. environmental consulting &
engineering industry based on annual surveys of C&E firms by EBJ, EBJ interviews, compiled revenue
data derived from various sources including ENR, EFCG, ZweigWhite and public company data.
Global Coal Consumption in Million
Tonnes
4500
4000
Americas
Europe & Eurasia, MidEast & Africa
Asia Pacific
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy; Asia 71% of total in 2014; USA peaked 2005-2008 and
is down 20% from that peak in 2013 and 2014 (down only 0.3%)
Non-Hydro Renewables: % of US
Electricity Generation
35%
32%
30%
24%
25%
20%
19%
15%
13%
9%
10%
5.3%
6.2%
6.8%
7.2%
2014
2015
5%
2.4%
0%
2006
2012
2013
2020
2030
2040
2050
2100
Source: EBJ 2016 Snapshot Survey; Renewables: U.S. DOE's Energy Information Administration says non-hydro
renewable sources were 2.1% of U.S. electricity generation in 2006, and grew to 6.2% in 2013, 6.8% in 2014 and 7.2%
in 2015, largely on the growth of generation from wind. What percentage of U.S. electricity generation do you believe
non-hydro renewable sources will represent in 2020-2050? (RE includes wind, solar, geothermal, waste, landfill gas,
wood & biomass: 2015 US electricity generation shares through 11/2015 were 34% coal, 33% natural gas, 19% nuclear
and 6% hydro; Other RE was 7.2% with wind at 4.5% and solar finally at 1.0%)
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State Renewable Energy Standards
Environmental Information Growth
12%
Your Company
Environmental Information Segment
10.4%
10.1%
10%
9.5%9.3%
8%
6.3%
5.6%
6%
4.9%
4%
5.1%
5.4%
4.7%
4.0%
3.5%
2.3%
2%
0.4%
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Environmental Business Journal Environmental Information Systems & Services Survey 2015.
Results are mean or averages.
Key Issues in USA Water Market
1.Water Industry is many segments, not always
integrated or working together
2.Regional variations: water stress, rates,
secondary water, reuse, energy cost/supply
3.Municipal orientation of basic water & sewage:
Follow the Money: Bonds, Initiatives, P3
4.Oil & Gas; Opportunity in Technology Niches
5.Policy/Pricing pointed in right direction but
change is very slow
The U.S. Water Industry: $150 billion+
Water Equipment
& Chemicals,
30,990 , 20%
Water Utilities,
52,600 , 34%
Water/
Wastewater
Services , 17,020
, 11%
Wastewater
Treatment Works,
53,160 , 35%
SOURCE: Environmental Business International, Inc., San Diego, CA. * Delivery Equipment is pipes, fixtures, pumps and valves for treatment and delivery; Maintenance
Service is mostly industrial & municipal plumbing contractors performing routine maintenance on lines and stations. This defintion of the water industry does not include
consumer products, mostly bottled water and sinktop, container or pitcher filters.
TOP TRENDS in the New Future
1. Infrastructure: Next Big Driver
2. Water: Evolution &/or Revolution
3. Information: Useful Applications
4. Renewable & Distributed Energy: Power Grid
5.Transportation: Fuels, Self, Electricity
6. Resilience & Adaptation
7. Flat is the new up
Does turnout in flux put a few more
states in play ?
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TOSSUPS
173 in a dozen states
?
?
?
?
?
?
Election 2016: Narrow set of Scenarios
If Dems keep Presidency; they will not take House. Senate narrows
GOP keeps House; Dems take Senate
Dems
retain
Pres.
GOP
wins
Pres.
“WHITE HOUSE LEVERAGE”
40%
Pentagon budget flat
Tug of war on agency priorities
EPA Budget cuts fended off
Some agency plans for Climate
Change, urban resilience
Dems get 2 or 3 Supreme justices
20%
RIGHT-SIZING GOVERNMENT
Spending cut fights in Senate
Tax Reform a big priority in 2017
Cuts in DOD are reversed
EPA withers with wave of retirees
Moderate Supreme justices
GOP keeps House / Senate 50-50
“GRIDLOCKED GRISTMILL”
30%
Pentagon budget grows less
Tax Reform difficult
Urban renewal, city water projects
Battle on EPA Regs intensifies
Fight over Clean Power Plan
Lots of veto threats, some vetoes
“SENATE CLOTURE BATTLES ” 10%
Bigger push for domestic drilling,
usage, pipelines, grid upgrades
Federal land sales, projects
DOD budget grows; more Navy?
More energy R&D, incentives
Republican Supreme justices
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Volume XXVIII: EBJ in 2015-2016
EBJ Vol XIX No 3/4: Environmental Contracting
EBJ Vol XIX No 1/2: M&A
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 12: Executive Q&As and 2015 EBJ Awards
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 10/11: Consulting & Engineering 2015
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 9: Environmental Industry Overview 2015
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 7/8: Sustainability & Climate Adaptation
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 5/6: Environmental Information Systems 2015
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 4: Remediation 2015
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 3: The Water/Wastewater Industry 2015
EBJ Vol XXVIII No 1/2: Industry Outlook 2015: EBJ Snapshot Survey
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CCBJ: Volume VIII in 2015
•2016 Executive Review & 2015 CCBJ Awards (December 2015)
•U.S. Local Government Market for Climate Resilience (Q4 2015)
•Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessments (Q3 2015)
•Water Utilities & Climate Change (Q2 2015)
•Climate Change Consulting Projects & Profiles (Q1 2015)
CCBJ: Volume VIII in 2015
Grant Ferrier
President, Environmental Business International, Inc.
Chairman, Environmental Industry Summit
Editor, Environmental Business Journal
Editor, Climate Change Business Journal
4452 Park Blvd. #306, San Diego CA 92116, 619-295-7685 ext.15
[email protected]; [email protected]
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