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Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Life is uncertain… Disasters? Climate Change? The weather tomorrow? We need tools that enable informed decision-making about these complex, dynamic systems Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Collaborative mapping and data sharing platforms Geo Node = Web Portal + Collaboration Distribution Cartography Data collection Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Probabilistic Risk Modeling Hazard (i.e. hurricane wind) Exposure (i.e. houses) Vulnerability (of house to wind) Risk (i.e probable loss) Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic - Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 CAPRA ~ Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment CAPRA is an ongoing initiative to develop and enhance a set of free and open source GIS-based tools to understand, communicate and support decisions to reduce disaster risk within in Central America. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Multi-Peril Probabilistic Modeling EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO STRONG WINDS ASH FALLS STORM SURGE BALLISTIC EJECTIONS HURRICANE RAINFALL PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAVA FLOWS LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Probabilistic Risk Modeling Hazard (i.e. hurricane wind) Exposure (i.e. houses) Vulnerability (of house to wind) Risk (i.e probable loss) Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic - Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Exposure Vulnerability Hazard Scenario Risk Modeling San Juan del Sur Nicaragua Risk: Physical Damage, Loss $ Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Stochastic Hazard Modeling Stochastic Event Set = All events that could impact a region 10 1 Frequency : How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100) Severity : How strong is the event? Hurricane Cat 5 What does the event look like? Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc 1 10 0.1 100 0.01 1000 Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation 1 10 100 Tasa de excedencia [1/año] Periodo de Retorno [años] 0.1 0.001 1000 Aceleración [cm/s²] Washington DC, September 2010 Climate Change Impact on Disasters EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO STRONG WINDS ASH FALLS STORM SURGE BALLISTIC EJECTIONS HURRICANE RAINFALL PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAVA FLOWS LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO Model A CATASTRÓFICO T=100 AÑOS Model B PRESENTE estado actual sin obras de mitigación Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Visualization of hazard and risk Hazards Territorial planning + Exposure + Infrastructure design Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Vulnerability + Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Risk Immediate damage assessment Applications Analysis of financial exposure Climate Change Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Labs Internal Demo version of Geo Node Expansion of Probabilistic Risk Models to other regions Integration of Climate Change scenarios into DRM www.ecapra.org www.geonode.org Abigail Baca [email protected] Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
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