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ASIA MONTHLY
June
2004
Topics
Japan-China automobile parts trade entering new phase ･･････
Korea ･･･････････････････････････････････････････････････････
Taiwan ･･････････････････････････････････････････････････････
Singapore ････････････････････････････････････････････････････
Thailand ･････････････････････････････････････････････････････
Malaysia･････････････････････････････････････････････････････
http://www.jri.co.jp/english/asia/index.html
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Vol.4 No.39
JRI ASIA MONTHLY REPORT
Topics
Japan-China automobile parts trade entering new phase
As Japanese automobile and parts manufacturers expand their production in China, the value of
Japanese exports of automobile parts and components has risen dramatically. It is expected that
export items will shift to high value-added items and import items will become more diverse.
■ Increased parts and components exports reflect China strategies
As production by Japanese manufacturers of
<Japanese Auto Parts Trade with China＞
automobiles and parts in China gets fully
2000
2001
2002
2003
underway, trade in automobile parts between
Export（a)
58
91
109
207
Japan and China is expanding.
Trade value
Import
17
21
29
37
According to Japanese trade statistics,
（billion yen)
1
Trade
balance
41
69
80
170
exports of automobile parts (HS8708) to
Export
3.1%
4.8%
5.1%
9.0%
China's share of the Japanese
China are increasing year on year and in 2003,
total parts trade
Import
7.5%
8.2%
9.1%
10.6%
when Japanese manufacturers’ automobile
Number of cars produced by Japanese car makers in
production got fully underway, were worth
79
134
235
542
China （'000 units) (b)
207 billion yen, double the value of the
Value of parts export per unit produced by Japanese
previous year. The percentage of total parts
728
677
463
382
car makers （'000 yen） (a/b)
exports accounted for by exports to China has
Notes: Automobile parts indicates customs code HS8708.
jumped from 5.1% to 9.0%.
However, it should be noted that the export （ｂ） indicates passenger cars and multi purpose vehicles (MPVs) produced by Japanese affiliated companies or Japanese contract manufacturers.
value growth rate is lower than the growth Source: Japan Tariff Association and China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
rate in the number of cars produced in China by Japanese manufacturers. This means that the export
value of each car that Japanese manufacturers make in China is falling. This is reflected in the rising
local procurement rate of parts and components, due to the increased presence2 of Japanese parts
manufacturers. Some models already have a local parts procurement rate of between 70 and 80% and, in
comparison with ASEAN nations, for example, China has a very great potential to increase its local parts
procurement rates.
What kinds of parts are currently being exported to China? Expanding the range of analysis to include
27 items in addition to HS8708, as shown in the following table, exports of ‘bodies and other parts and
accessories’ exceeded 127 billion yen. Also, second to sixth places feature core parts and components,
such as engines, gear boxes and brakes. These require expensive investment in plant and equipment and
a high level of production technology and are, therefore, difficult to supply locally. Further, about 60%
of the export value of ‘engines and parts’ was accounted for by engine parts, suggesting that, in many
companies, the parts are supplied from Japan and the final assembly of the engines is done in China.
There are also cases where parts normally produced in China are exported from Japan. In the case of
car seats, where the supply usually switches to local supply quite quickly once production of the cars
begins, because of the high transportation costs involved, export worth jumped to 5.2 billion yen in 2003,
an increase of 43 times compared to the year before. This is believed to be because the local supply
setups often cannot match the speed of production of new models. While there are some models whose
local parts procurement rates are high, there are many others where the local procurement rate is only
around 40%, either in the early stages of production or because the number of units being produced is
low.
Looking at imports from China, the automobile parts (HS8708) import worth in 2003 was 37 billion
yen, which is very low when compared to the export worth of 207 billion yen and represents a very low
growth rate. The major import items include ‘wiring sets and electric conductors’, ‘road wheels and
parts’, ‘ car radios’, ‘rubber products’, etc. Japanese firms switched production of these parts to China
in the ‘90s, in search of cheap labor, and then began importing them back into Japan. Of these, with the
exception of car radios (2nd place), for three of the items, imports from China account for the highest
1
Customs code HS8708 includes body parts, bumpers, seatbelts, brakes, gearboxes, drive-axles, non-driving axles, road
wheels, shock-absorbers, radiators, clutches, steering wheels and steering columns, etc.
2
According to a survey by the Japan Auto Parts Industries Association, in April 2003, member corporations had 182
production plants in China, more than in Thailand (164) and second after the US (277).
The Japan Research Institute. Limited
Center for Pacific Business Studies
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Vol.4 No.39
JRI ASIA MONTHLY REPORT
percentage of Japan’s imports of these items. Now, however, many Japanese parts manufacturers who
moved into China find themselves struggling to keep pace with orders for the burgeoning domestic
market and are limited in the amounts that they can export back to Japan.
＜Japanese Top 7 Items for Auto Parts Trade with China in 2003＞
Rank
Export
Export items
（Billion yen, %）
Import
Value
126.7
Growth
China's
Import items
rate
share
79.9
11.3 Wiring sets and electric conductors
1
Bodies and other parts and accessories
2
Engines and parts
76.5
79.5
3
Gear boxes
37.7
188.9
4
Brakes and parts
14.4
5
Electrical ignition or starting equipment
10.0
6
Compressors for car air-conditioners
7
Transmission shafts and cranks*
8
Value
54.5
Growth
China's
rate
share
7.7
36.7
8.4 Road wheels and parts
20.1
15.9
27.7
1.7 Car radios
12.4
-10.5
23.1
91.5
9.2 Bodies and other parts and accessories
12.2
36.3
7.2
46.4
5.7 Engines and parts
4.0
4.5
3.7
9.9
35.9
8.1 Rubber products
3.8
17.0
31.4
9.7
27.0
9.5 Keys and fittings
2.9
81.0
24.8
Lighting, horns and wipers, etc.
6.4
67.3
10.2 Lighting horns and wipers, etc.
2.5
28.5
7.8
9
Springs and leaves for springs, of iron or steel*
6.3
22.1
21.0 Electrical ignition or starting equipment
2.4
-18.3
15.6
10
Car seats
5.2
4177.1
80.5 Transmission shafts and bearings, etc.
1.8
11.8
8.9
Notes: analyzed 27 items for export and 31items for import, in addition to HS8708 (13 items)
＊ indicates inclusion of items for non-automobile use
Source: Japan Tariff Association
■ Full production brings changes in Japan-China trade
As Japanese automobile manufacturers expand their production capacity, they will likely increase their
local parts procurement rates, in order to strengthen cost competitiveness. For example, Nissan says that,
out of six models that they plan to launch by 2006, five of them will have local parts procurement rates of
between 75 to 80% (Nikkan Kogyo Shinbun Dec. 8, 2003). Also, the operations of recently
established Japanese-affiliated parts manufacturers will gradually become more reliable, both
qualitatively and quantitatively. Thus, as automobile and parts manufacturers’ businesses in China get
into full swing, the following effects are likely to be seen in Japan-China parts trade.
First, the types of items exported from Japan will change. In the case of parts whose transportation is
inefficient and which do not require advanced technical skills, there will be a gradual switch to local
production and a drop in exports. Exports from Japan will gradually focus on those items that are
difficult to supply locally, such as advanced functional parts and components, or those parts for which the
demand in China is low. Further, China is to do away with import quotas on finished vehicles by the end
of 2004 and, by the end of June, 2006, the mean customs duties on passenger vehicles will be reduced to
25% and on parts and components to 10.4%. The lower trade barriers will make it easier to import
advanced functional parts and components from Japan.
Second, there will likely be an increase in reverse imports, from China to Japan, in the interest of
cutting costs. Until now, import items have generally been restricted to labor intensive-type parts and
components but, in the future, the number and range of imports items is likely to increase. Already, in
2003, though the monetary amount is small, there are signs of a year on year increase in import value of
items such as ‘bodies and other accessories and parts’, ‘keys and fittings’ and ‘lighting, horns and wipers,
etc.’, which indicates reverse imports by recently established Japanese-affiliated companies.
In general, in developing countries, foreign-owned manufacturers start to produce cars by bringing in
the majority of their parts and components (knock-down production). Then, as production increases and
the numbers of parts suppliers grows, car manufacturers are able to switch to local procurement of parts
and components. In China, in addition to the accumulation of foreign-affiliated parts manufacturers and
the development of local supporting industries, the fierce competition and the fact that the huge size of
the market makes merits of scale more easily realized means that there is a high possibility that the local
parts procurement rate will rise within a short space of time. Looking ahead to the future of Japan-China
parts trade, it is expected that exports from Japan will gradually shift to high value-added items, while the
number and value of import items from China will grow.
(Minako Mori)
The Japan Research Institute. Limited
Center for Pacific Business Studies
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Vol.4 No.39
JRI ASIA MONTHLY REPORT
Korea
Hoped-for political stability and future risk
■ Ruling party gains parliamentary majority
Korea’s general election was held on April 15.
After parliament voted to impeach President
＜Consumer Ｓｅｎｔｉｍｅｎｔ Index＞
Roh Moo-hyun on March 12, the people waited
110
anxiously to see the outcome of the
impeachment hearings.
105
Consumer Present Situation
The fact that the ruling Uri Party was able to
Index (right scale)
100
increase its parliamentary seats to win a
majority before the re-election indicates that the
95
people did not support the impeachment. As a
result of the ruling party’s having won a
90
majority of parliamentary seats, a measure of
stability will likely return to the political
Consumer Expectation
85
situation and consumer sentiment, adversely
Index (left scale)
affected by political unrest, is expected to
80
J- A- S- O- N- D- J- F- M- A- M- J- J- A- S- O- N- D- J- F- M- Aimprove from now on.
02 02 02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04
However, it is important to realize that the
Source: National Statistics Office
election results do not necessarily mean that
voters’ confidence in President Roh Moo-hyun
has been restored. The Democratic Labor Party also gained ten seats. The Democratic Labor Party
was formed out of the Democratic Labor Union Federation (No. 2 National Center) and campaigned in
the recent elections with the slogan ‘Taxes for the rich, welfare for the people, and jobs for the young’.
This slogan was able to garner a certain amount of support because of the unstable employment situation
and the growing income gaps in the wake of the currency crisis, as well as the delay in economic recovery.
In addition to a 9% unemployment rate among young laborers, regular employees account for only about
50% of the workforce and the number of part-time workers is growing. While the economy may be said
to be recovering somewhat, thanks to the support of healthy exports, consumption continues to languish
and the people do not have much sense of being in an economic recovery.
■ Future prospects and risks
The Constitutional Court overturned the president’s impeachment on April 14. The ruling was that
Parliament’s grounds for impeachment− 1) that the president tried to rally support for a particular
political party, 2) accepted improper funds, and 3) failed in his economic policies −were “not serious or
grave enough to justify the unseating of the president.” The president was reinstated after hiatus of two
months.
The problem is that, while the ruling party may have secured the majority of seats in the parliament,
there is still the risk of more political instability. The reason is that the recent general election saw much
of the old guard replaced by new faces that were active in democratization movements in 1987.
Depending on future developments in Iraq and North Korea, and differences of opinion within the Uri
Party regarding economic policies, there is every possibility of political turmoil.
Also, as the new generation of politicians takes over, there will be fewer and fewer with political
contacts in Japan. In order to secure stability in future Japan-Korea relations, it will be important for
Japan to establish a new set of contacts.
(Hidehiko Mukoyama)
The Japan Research Institute. Limited
Center for Pacific Business Studies
3
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Vol.4 No.39
JRI ASIA MONTHLY REPORT
Taiwan
Private sector investment expected to recover rapidly
■ Expansion in IT-related production and expansion
3
2
12
20
04
/1
11
10
9
8
7
6
4
5
20
03
/3
In Taiwan, production and exports in the
＜Manufacturing and Electoronic Module
manufacturing industries fell in the first half of
(%)
Production(YoY)＞
2003, due to the effects of the SARS outbreak,
50
Manufacturing Production
but recovered quickly in the latter half of the year.
Electronic Module Production
40
In the first quarter of 2004, manufacturing
industry production was up 14.9%, compared to
30
the same period in the previous year. In terms
20
of specific industries, information electronics was
10
up 22.8%, similarly, and was led by electronics
0
materials and parts and components, in which
semiconductors and liquid crystal panels are
-10
performing solidly, which were up 38.5%,
similarly.
(Y/M)
Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs
Exports for Q1 were also healthy, up 22.5%,
compared to the same period in the previous year. In terms of specific products, electronic goods and
parts were up 39.8%, similarly. Export orders received, an indicator of future export performance, were
up 22.7%, with electronic goods and parts performing particularly well, up 44.2%. Exports, particularly
IT-related, are expected to continue to increase.
Private sector investment expansion encouraged by export growth and vigorous money
supply
With notebook PCs, digital household
＜Exports and Export Orders＞
appliances, portable terminals, and so on, selling
Exports(Left Scale)
well throughout the world, the demand for
Export Orders(Left Scale)
semiconductors and liquid crystal displays is
Exports(YoY, Right Scale)
（％）
growing rapidly. However, manufacturers have （US$100 mil）
Export Orders(YoY, Right Scale)
160
40
been cautious about investment in the wake of the
140
collapse of the IT bubble, and a continuing supply
30
120
shortage has pushed up prices. It is expected
20
that supply will be unable to meet any sharp rise
100
10
in demand in the near future and companies are
80
0
becoming more positive about plant and
▲ 10
60
equipment investment.
▲ 20
40
The recent improvements in the money supply
▲ 30
20
conditions must also be viewed as a factor in
▲ 40
0
2002
2003
enabling more positive investment. With the
(Y/M)
Source: Ministry of Economic
upturn in the world’s stock markets and positive
acceptance by institutional investors in Europe
and the US, there has been equity finance in overseas markets, worth several hundred million dollars, by
liquid crystal display panel manufacturers such as Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision Industry), ChiMei
Optoelectronics, Quanta Display and Chunghwa Picture Tubes, semiconductor manufacturer Nanya
Technology , PC supplier AUSTek Computer, and others.
The government is expecting private sector investment to grow by 14.5% for the year. Large scale
investments of NT$200 million or more are expected to increase by 107.1%, compared to the previous
year. In particular, investments in the electronics materials and parts and components industry and
expected to grow 156.3%, accounting for 31.8% of the investment total. Until now, Taiwan’s economic
recovery has been export-led, but domestic demand boosted by the rapid recovery in private sector
investment will also be a contributory factor in the future.
(Hiroshi Imai)
The Japan Research Institute. Limited
Center for Pacific Business Studies
4
Vol.4 No.39
JRI ASIA MONTHLY REPORT
Singapore
Real GDP grows by 7.5% in Q1
■ All major industries post positive growth
Real GDP growth for Q1, 2004, was up
7.5%, compared to the same period in the
＜Real GDP and Key Industry Growth Rates（Y o Y）＞
（％）
previous year, the highest quarterly growth
GDP
Manufactur
20
rate since 2001. Growth was also up 11.2%
Construction
Service
15
compared to the previous period (annualized
rate).
10
In
terms
of
specific
industries,
5
manufacturing was up 12.2%, compared to
the same period in the previous year, and was
0
a driver of high growth. Supported by
-5
healthy
exports,
production
of
-10
semiconductors, disk drives, and so on,
expanded. But growth has not been limited
-15
to electronics only.
The manufacturing
-20
industry as a whole has enjoyed high levels of
2002/1～3
7～9
2003/1～3
7～9
2004/1～3
growth, including solid performance by bio(Y／Period)
Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry of Singapore
medicine and precision instrumentation.
In the service industry, hotels and
restaurants saw positive growth for the first time in five quarters, up 5.9%, similarly. Continued healthy
automobile sales are reckoned to be one factor pushing growth upward.
Construction, also, was up 0.1%, the first positive growth since the first quarter in 2001. Measures
such as the bringing forward of infrastructure projects, etc., have been effective in braking the decline.
With all major industries posting positive growth, the government has revised its economic growth
forecast for the year upwards from between 3.5 and 5.5% to between 5.5 and 7.5%. This is due, in part,
to the fact that global IT-related demand has exceeded initial expectations.
■ Policy shift in acceptance of currency appreciation and future export trends
While exports to the US and China are expected to increase, there are also several downturn factors.
In particular, 1) a shift in policy stance regarding the acceptance of currency appreciation, and 2) China’s
countermeasures against the overheating economy are expected to have an effect on Singapore’s exports
and production.
With regard to the former, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has accepted some
appreciation in the Singapore dollar since July, 2003, it has intervened in the exchange market
intermittently, acting to restrain the rise in the Singapore dollar. However, with the high growth rate in
the first quarter of 2004, in order to prevent a rapid rise in price levels that would accompany commodity
price rises, the MAS has announced that it will accept a gradual currency appreciation. With the raising
of the goods and services tax (GST), the margin of price rises has become large recently. For that reason,
the shift in policy to one of monetary restraint at a time when the economy is clearly in recovery is not
necessarily wrong. Having said that, the switch came sooner than most expected and there is growing
anxiety among export related and other industries. Unless these concerns can be addressed, the
otherwise healthy actual demand will likely lose impetus.
Also, against the backdrop of vigorous growth in demand in China, the international prices of iron and
steel, petroleum related raw materials, etc., are soaring. Currently, exports, mainly to China, are doing
well. However, if China further tightens its countermeasures to combat the overheating economy,
foreign-affiliated and other Chinese companies will likely become conservative in their purchases of raw
materials, and Singapore’s export environment will rapidly deteriorate. The problem needs to be tackled
from the dual perspectives of strengthening multilateral trade relations and reducing costs.
(Junya Sano)
The Japan Research Institute. Limited
Center for Pacific Business Studies
5
Vol.4 No.39
JRI ASIA MONTHLY REPORT
Thailand Rising consumption leads to higher debts and lower
savings
■ Credit card controls announced
＜Private Consumption Index＞
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅰ
Thailand’s economic recovery has been driven by
120
growing private sector consumption. Indices show that
private sector consumption has been increasing steadily
115
since the currency crisis. Part of the background to
110
this includes growing personal incomes and rising share
105
prices, as well as a rise in individual loans, including
100
credit card borrowing. At the end of 2003, the number
of credit cards issued by banks was 23% up on the
95
previous year at 4.23 million cards and the amount
90
borrowed up 33%, similarly, at 76.2 billion baht.
85
Along with this, the amount of borrowing against
80
households’ disposable incomes increased from 39.9%
at the end of 2001 to 47.8% at the end of 2003.
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
While the Bank of Thailand claims that household debt
Source: Bank of Thailand
is still not at a dangerous level, restrictions governing
the activities of credit card companies were revised on
March 31. The minimum limit of monthly repayment was increased from 5% of the amount borrowed
to 10%, effective from April 1, in an attempt to curb excessive borrowing. However, given the fact that
private sector consumption is currently driving the economy, the new restrictions will apply immediately
to new cards issued from April 1 only, and to existing cards from April 1, 2007.
2004
■ Household savings falling
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
98
97
96
95
94
93
In general, healthy private sector consumption is
＜Household Disposal Income and Savings＞
having an effect on savings levels in the household
（Billion Baht）
（％）
sector.
Savings as a percentage of household
Disposal Income (Left Scale）
4,000
20
disposable income peaked at 15.5% in 1998 and then
Savings/Disposal Income (Right Scale）
3,500
shrank to 11.3% in 2000 and to 6.2% in 2002. As a
3,000
15
2,500
percentage of GDP, household savings shrank from
2,000
10
10.2% in 1998 to 7.2% in 2000 and their lowest ever
1,500
level of 3.8% in 2002. The figures for 2003 have
1,000
5
500
not been released yet, but they are likely to be similar,
0
0
if not lower, than those of 2002.
Household savings are a source of corporate
investments and are a vitally important factor in the
Source: NESDB
sustaining of a healthy economy. However, in the
case of Thailand, there was massive investment in
plant and equipment in the investment boom of the early ‘90s. This increased companies’ plant capacity
utilization rates and caused production to grow, with interest at a very low inter-bank rate of approx. 1%.
Plant capacity utilization rates, which had not passed 70% since the currency crisis, went to 79.9% in
March, 2004. With the growing possibility of new plant and equipment investment, if household
savings continue to shrink as described above, interest rates will go up and household debt repayment
burdens will very likely increase. In order to sustain a healthy economy, it is vital that the driving role
be shifted from private sector consumption to plant and equipment investment. Also, flexible policies
need to be implemented, giving full consideration to the interrelationship between consumption and
investment and the effect on interest rates. From that perspective, the new credit card restrictions may
be seen as a first step.
(Keiichiro Oizumi)
The Japan Research Institute. Limited
Center for Pacific Business Studies
6
Vol.4 No.39
JRI ASIA MONTHLY REPORT
Malaysia Mixed economic recovery
■ Exports and private consumption lead economic recovery
Malaysia’s economy is recovering favorably, lead by exports
＜Exports, Imports & Manufacturing Prod. (YoY)＞
and private consumption. First, exports continue growing,
Exports
(%)
against the backdrop of 1) global economic recovery, 2)
Imports
30
growing IT demand, and 3) stable prices for primary products.
Manufacturing Prod.
20
After posting a 35.5% increase in December, 2003 over the year,
the highest figure since the currency crisis, January’s growth
10
slowed to 9.1%, due to the affects of the Chinese New Year
0
holiday, but bounced back to 16.7% in February. Electrical
and electronic goods, chemical products, palm oil, natural gas, -10
and mechanical equipment, parts and components all performed -20
solidly. Meanwhile, import growth picked up pace, and -30
2001
2002
2003
2004
(Y/M)
Source: Department of Statistics
figures for February were up 24.3% over the year, of which
major items were intermediate goods (23.3%) and capital goods
＜Private Consumption Indicators (YoY)＞
(31.3%). Boosted by the increase in exports, manufacturing
(%)
production also picked up momentum, and has continued double
40
digit growth since September, 2003.
30
20
Private consumption has performed solidly, due to factors
10
such as 1) continued low interest rates, 2) stable consumer
0
prices, 3) improved income conditions, 4) the extended effect of
-10
healthy exports, and so on.
Related indices show that
Automobile Sales
-20
Consumption Credit
passenger car sales, which had continued to post negative
-30
Import of Consumption Goods
growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, since
-40
2001
2002
2003
2004
September, 2002, turned around into positive growth in
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
(Y/M)
December, 2003. While the figures did dip again in January,
2004, blunted by the Chinese New Year holiday, they were back in positive territory again in February.
Other indices show that banks’ loans to individuals, mainly for automobiles and housing, are growing by
over 10%, similarly, and imports of consumer goods, having started a clear recovery from the autumn of
2003, were up by 20.3%, compared to the same period in the previous year, in February.
■ Concerns over deteriorating business sentiment and China’s economic deceleration
In the light of recovery in exports, private consumption and manufacturing production, the government
revised its real GDP growth forecast for 2004 from between 5.5 to 6.0% to between 6.0 to 6.5% in its
annual report for 2003, released on March 26.
Of course, looking forward, there are still areas of concern. First, corporate business sentiment has
been weakening recently. The business sentiment of Japanese affiliates (manufacturing industry) turned
positive in December, 2003, and improved to 11.9 points in January, 2004. After that, however, the
deterioration of the situation in Iraq and concerns over the future of the US economy caused confidence to
falter, and it fell to 0 points in April. Forecasts in April (for two to three months ahead) fell to negative
7.3 points. In terms of industry, transportation equipment suffered from poor domestic sales, and fell to
negative 54.5 points, and electrical and electronic equipment fell to 0 points. Corporate investment
appetites have dulled somewhat, and there are worries that private investment, which had shown signs of
recovery, may begin to falter.
Second, there are the effects of the deceleration in the Chinese economy. The Chinese government
and central bank have begun to toughen their stance of tight monetary policy. China’s share of
Malaysia’s exports has been growing in recent years, reaching 6.4% in 2003. Added to exports to Hong
Kong, the figure is 12.5%. Excluding Singapore, which mainly deals in re-exports, China-Hong Kong is
Malaysia’s second largest export partner after the US. If China’s economy begins to slow, the
probability is large that Malaysia’s exports will be affected, and the economic recovery in turn will lose
impetus.
(Tatsuro Bando)
The Japan Research Institute. Limited
Center for Pacific Business Studies
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