Download Discrete random variable

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the work of artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts
no text concepts found
Transcript
4-1
Chapter Four
Discrete Random
Variables
4-2
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Discrete Random Variables
4.1
4.2
4.3
*4.4
4-3
Two Types of Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
4.1 Random Variables
A random variable is a variable that assumes numerical
values that are determined by the outcome of an
experiment.
Discrete random variable: Possible values can be
counted or listed. [e.g. the number of defective units in a
batch of 20, a listener rating (on a scale of 1 to 5) in a
AccuRating music survey]
Continuous random variable: May assume any
numerical value in one or more intervals. [e.g. the
waiting time for a credit card authorization, the interest
rate charged on a business loan.]
4-4
4.2 Discrete Probability Distributions
The probability distribution of a discrete random
variable is a table, graph, or formula that gives the
probability associated with each possible value that the
variable can assume.
Example 4.3: Number of Radios
Sold at Sound City in a Week
x, Radios
0
1
2
3
4
5
4-5
p(x), Probability
p(0) = 0.03
p(1) = 0.20
p(2) = 0.50
p(3) = 0.20
p(4) = 0.05
p(5) = 0.02
Expected Value of a
Discrete Random Variable
The mean or expected value of a discrete random variable is:
 X   xp( x)
All x
Example 4.4: Expected Number of Radios Sold in a Week
x, Radios
0
1
2
3
4
5
4-6
p(x), Probability
p(0) = 0.03
p(1) = 0.20
p(2) = 0.50
p(3) = 0.20
p(4) = 0.05
p(5) = 0.02
1.00
x p(x)
0(0.03) = 0.00
1(0.20) = 0.20
2(0.50) = 1.00
3(0.20) = 0.60
4(0.05) = 0.20
5(0.02) = 0.10
2.10
Variance and Standard Deviation
The variance of a discrete random variable is:
 X2   ( x   X ) 2 p( x)
All x
The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.
 X   X2
4-7
Example: Variance and Standard Deviation
Example 4.7: Variance and Standard Deviation of the
Number of Radios Sold in a Week
x, Radios
0
1
2
3
4
5
p(x), Probability
p(0) = 0.03
p(1) = 0.20
p(2) = 0.50
p(3) = 0.20
p(4) = 0.05
p(5) = 0.02
1.00
Variance
 X2  0.89
4-8
(x - X)2 p(x)
(0 – 2.1)2 (0.03) = 0.1323
(1 – 2.1)2 (0.20) = 0.2420
(2 – 2.1)2 (0.50) = 0.0050
(3 – 2.1)2 (0.20) = 0.1620
(4 – 2.1)2 (0.05) = 0.1805
(5 – 2.1)2 (0.02) = 0.1682
0.8900
Standard deviation
 X  0.89  0.9434
4.3 The Binomial Distribution
The Binomial Experiment
1. Experiment consists of n identical trials
2. Each trial results in either “success” or “failure”
3. Probability of success, p, is constant from trial to trial
4. Trials are independent
If x = the total number of successes in n trials of a
binomial experiment, then x is a binomial random
variable and the probability of x successes in n trials
is:
n!
p(x) =
p x q n -x
x! (n - x)!
4-9
Example: Binomial Probabilities
Example 4.10
x =
number of patients who will experience nausea
following treatment with Phe-Mycin
n = 4 , p = 0.1, q = 1 – p = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9
Find the probability that 2 of the 4 patients treated will
experience nausea.
4!
p(2)  P(x=2)=
(0.1)2 (0.9)4-2 =6(0.1)2 (0.9)2 =0.0486
2!(4-2)!
4-10
Example: Binomial Distribution,
n = 4, p = 0.1
4-11
Binomial Probability Table
p = 0.1
Table 4.7(a) for n = 4 trials
values of p (.05 to .50)
x
0
1
2
3
4
0.05
0.8145
0.1715
0.0135
0.0005
0.0000
0.95
0.1
0.6561
0.2916
0.0486
0.0036
0.0001
0.9
0.15
0.5220
0.3685
0.0975
0.0115
0.0005
0.85
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
0.50
0.0625
0.2500
0.3750
0.2500
0.0625
0.50
values of p (.95 to .50)
P(x = 2)=.0486
4-12
4
3
2
1
0
x
Several Binomial Distributions
4-13
Mean and Variance of a
Binomial Random Variable
If x is a binomial random variable with parameters n and p,
then
Mean X = np
Variance  x2 = npq , q  1 - p
Standard deviation  x =  x2
4-14
4.4 The Poisson Distribution
Consider the number of times an event occurs over an
interval of time or space, and assume that
1. The probability of occurrence is the same for any
intervals of equal length.
2. The occurrence in any interval is independent of an
occurrence in any non-overlapping interval.
If x = the number of occurrences in a specified interval,
then x a Poisson random variable and the probability of
x occurrences in the interval is:
e  x
p(x) =
x!
4-15
  expected number of occurrence s
e  2.71828..., the Naperian constant
Example: Poisson Probabilities
Example 4.13
x =
number of Cleveland air traffic control errors
during one week
 = 0.4 (expected number of errors per week)
Find the probability that 3 errors will occur in a week.
e-0.4 (0.4)3
p(3)  P(x = 3) =
= .0072
3!
4-16
Poisson Probability Table
=0.4
Table 4.9
, Mean number of Occurrences
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
0.1
0.9048
0.0905
0.0045
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.2
0.8187
0.1637
0.0164
0.0011
0.0001
0.0000
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
0.4
0.6703
0.2681
0.0536
0.0072
0.0007
0.0001
e-0.4 (0.4)3
p(3)  P(x = 3) =
= 0.0072
3!
4-17
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
1.00
0.3679
0.3679
0.1839
0.0613
0.0153
0.0031
Example: Poisson Distribution,  = 0.4
4-18
Mean and Variance of a
Poisson Random Variable
If x is a Poisson random variable with parameter , then
Mean
X = 
Variance
 x2 = 
Standard Deviation
4-19
 x =  x2  
Several Poisson Distributions
4-20
Discrete Random Variables
Summary:
4.1
4.2
4.3
*4.4
4-21
Two Types of Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
Related documents